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FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (9/15/2010 5:39:01 PM)
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On Strategic Priorities
My masterplan has failed, what now?
It seems likely, that my esteemed opponent intends to play Sir Robin with his carriers until he feels secure in his superiority. That can be gleaned from both his posts and from the fact that Allies in fact do avoid likely confrontations with IJN even when Hawaii are at stake.
This is bad, and this defeats my top-priority strategic goal, or at least leaves the possibility of achieving it the matter of luck (assuming that Allied carriers are stashed somewhere safe, possibly even off map). I do believe that Yubari can be provoked into sending his fleet into a trap, but the only time I actually managed to do this so far was sinking of Australian cruisers in Solomons (if they even were drawn there by the initial small landing at Kavieng and on Admiralty islands). In Scen 1 this situation would have been extremely bad for Japan, but in Scen 70, and with 95% of SRA facilities captured intact, the perspectives of Japanese defense against an intact Allied fleet in 1943 are significantly brighter.
Still, I need to rethink my operational and strategic priorities on the assumption that the Alllied fleet will avoid large battles until at least mid-1943, when Yubari, particularly with our HRs, might believe that he has qualitative edge.
Fortunately - unless he rethinks his position, which, considering his bold naval raids, is not out of the question - this also means that Japanese perimeter won't be threatened in places where Allies cannot bring LBA support until mid-1943. While relying on such assumption entirely is too dangerous, I do believe that putting extra empazis on defense of the sectors where Allies can advance without carrier cover, or with only brief cover, is only sensible.
What advantages I'm still positioned to gain?
Assuming operations at Hawaii go nicely, I'm going to bag 2-4 US divisions worth of troops, which unfortunately doesn't matter much, because once Allies gain strategic initiative they will always have enough infantry for invasions. Even if Yubari didn't save fragments, this will only matter if Allies get in a major, army-scale, land campaign somewhere in the Pacific, which is not very likely.
Allied aviation might actually be significantly harmed in the long term, if so many air groups (15 US Army fighter squadrons alone were confirmed) are destroyed or forced to withdraw. This, and losses of bombers, which are in great deficit throughout 1942, will set American training program back significantly (particularly bomber training, Americans get very few of them until autumn, and at the moment US Army lost about 90 4Es and 60 2Es already), never mind the direct blow to their fighting strength. This will actually restrict Allies' ability to project power, by restricting their ability to do risky jumps to underdeveloped airfields and absorb losses in the process, at least until 1943.
Loss of Hawaii (with Oahu being taken or permanently bombed into uselessness) will lengthen Pacific-side of Allied communications with Australia significantly. This might be aggravated by taking Line Islands later. Japan will get a very good defensive position in the Pacific, with Allies having harder time staging an amphibious offensive from southern Pacific islands and not having any shipyards between Sydney and the West Coast (and not having any shipyards capable of repairing their biggest carriers and battleships closer than the West Coast, period). Hopefully, this will channel US efforts into retaking Hawaii later.
What I need to achieve?
Looking at the economic side of things, the game can be considered proceeding smoothly if Allies are kept away from both Home Islands and SRA by the end of 1943. At this moment, practically all the large ships worth building will be built (save for a half dozen of modern destroyers and one CVL). Only small DDs (cheap), escorts (cheap) and subs (likely useless by that point) will remain in the queue, so it will be possible to cut down naval production and expand air production to something like 1000 fighters and 500 bombers/fighter-bombers per month easily (in fact, at the moment naval shipyards consume almost 5 times more HI points than air production, so this is a low-end estimate). Similarly, IJA will expand significantly by that point, allowing to reinforce the perimeter strongly.
Of course, this is easier said than done. But if Yubari indeed feels his aviation is too inferior to risk a carrier battle until well into 1943, this will make things much simpler. I'll primarily need to protect Burma and to guard against movements from Northern Australia to the closed perimeter bases. My Burma defense plan was outlined already in this AAR, and I don't believe it is outdated by now. The only modification should be putting an effort into chasing British aviation from Bengal entirely for the time being, and hopefully attriting their limited pools quite a bit in the process.
Northern Australia is more problematic. At the moment Allied forces seems to be well-entrenched in Darwin-Katherine area. Alice Springs is being built up rapidly. I won't have much free infantry to storm the area even after finishing the last Dutch pockets. And eastern DEI requires far more troops to defend than nothern OZ requires to take. So the emphazis should be put on blockading Allied sealanes and pushing the naval perimeter away from my vitals, at least for a time. An air HQ is already on the way to Lae-Nadzab, to cover Torres Strait (Merauke also needs to be taken, and Horn Island can use a better garrizon than a single NavGuard, maybe). On the other side of Darwin, at least Port Hedland and maybe Exmouth should be occupied and turned into Netty-capable bases. And if operations go really well, expansion towards Perth, to make supplying Australia from the British side difficult as well, might be considered. But this only has a remote chance of happening if Japanese continue to dominate the air thoroughly and Hawaii are finished before autumn.
I don't have much fear of a direct landing on Java or Sumatra until 1943 at least, not only because of my opponent's attitude, but just in general. Landing beyond fighter ferry range but in radius of several major Japanese airbases is a recipe for disaster, even if you don't initially face many enemies on the beaches. Of course, I need to establish these airbases. Air HQs will be initially placed at Port Blair, Padang, Batavia-Oosthafen area, Soerabaja area, and somewhere around Timor (didn't decide yet). More will be added as HQs become available from reinforcemets, the first one probably to Medan. In 1942 Allies, particularly British just won't stand a chance of winning a serious air battle on Japanese ground and keeping their bridgehead non-isolated. And without being in their fighter ferry range, they won't even be able to start one.
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