RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (Full Version)

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Bamilus -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (5/31/2010 11:31:16 PM)

You don't even need twenty guys. All it takes is one guy in a truck with a nuke and blow it up in a city. You won't need a launcher or anything.



Capt. Harlock -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/1/2010 5:18:52 AM)

quote:

ou don't even need twenty guys. All it takes is one guy in a truck with a nuke and blow it up in a city.


The problem is, you couldn't get the truck through the so-called "Demilitarized Zone". (For one thing, it's one of the most heavily mined places on the planet.) It might, however, be possible to land a device on a South Korean beach with a scuba team from a submarine. (They've used subs for commando raids in the past.)

IMHO, North Korea would not use its nukes until and unless the situation got really bad for it. In the opening days of any war, it would content itself with conventional weapons, including shelling Seoul to rubble, which it has more than enough long-range artillery to do. And this scenario still worries me a lot, since my brother lives there.



wworld7 -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/1/2010 5:30:39 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

The problem is, you couldn't get the truck through the so-called "Demilitarized Zone". (For one thing, it's one of the most heavily mined places on the planet.) It might, however, be possible to land a device on a South Korean beach with a scuba team from a submarine. (They've used subs for commando raids in the past.)


A sub? Tensions are high, the beaches will be watched. BUT, a peace offering from the North in the form of say a huge pig, chicken, cow whatever could lull the south and be moved across the border in full view. Yet, I have to have faith that someone in the south read history and this will be prevented before the USA and China create a new parking lot on the land formerly known as North Korea.



Yogi the Great -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/1/2010 1:47:13 PM)

The "West" and/or U.S. have a significant disadvantage. You might call it political correctness or perhaps others might think it is philosophical beliefs. It is a worry that civilian casualties are wrong, and to borrow a game title "Total War" is unacceptable. You can also add to that our wilingness to punish our own side for violations of the self set rules we feel we must play by. Maybe it is a carry over from the saying from our upbringing, "It isn't if you win or lose, it's how you play the game." Well if the other side thinks it isn't how you play the game it is only if you win, you are very vulnerable. Efforts to get terrorists and and/or rogue nations to "play by the rules" have failed. They know that we are for the most part unwilling to practice "total War".

Note, this is not meant to start a political discussion only as a comment on philosophies and beliefs and how they can effect what happens in the world. If such nations and groups know they can hide behind civilian losses and that little danger of loss of power or cause exists, they have little reason to be afraid. They themselves have no fear and in fact are more then happy to kill as many as possible. If and when they have the power to institute "total war" they will do so.

If such nations actually knew that we would be willing to totally destroy them, things might play out differently. It is unlikely they will ever fear that, unless and until some day, we actually do it.



Jim D Burns -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/1/2010 2:20:35 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: nim8or

If you consider the U.S. still needs to borrow an additional 2 Trillion in the remainder of 2010 to fund the budget, that number could approach 35-40% by 2011. Now you're talking more than peanuts. Do you think the Europeans have the resources to buy more U.S. debt with their financial problems? At what point does the U.S. become beholden to foreign debt holders?


Actually most of the US debt is monetized, and I’d say going forward we’ll have to monetize close to 100% of any new debt as China has already warned they can’t keep buying our debt at current rates. Here are the current debt holders and their holdings:

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

In this article it seems the fed is more worried about short term deflation than the long term inflation consequences of massive monetizing of our own debt.

http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/03/monetizing-debt-fed-will-buy-everything.html

We’re making the same mistakes they made after the crash in 1929. In another year or two we’ll lose our credit rating and interest rates will skyrocket. That means we’ll soon owe more interest on our debt than our total GDP. The only way out of that disaster will be to print money, which means inflation will skyrocket. Third world status will follow soon thereafter.

The sad part about it is it’s a train wreck everyone can plainly see developing, but no one wants to admit to it because of politics. The needed severe spending cuts to save us from the coming mayhem are political minefields, so they simply go about spending money we don’t have by the boatload and they’ll point fingers later.

Jim



CaptBeefheart -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/3/2010 6:43:44 AM)

Nothing is going to happen here, and the North's ability to wreck Seoul with artillery has been vastly overstated. Yes, they'd probably cause a fair amount of havoc and kill a few hundred people, but not thousands or millions. This presumes they don't use Sarin or other nerve agents, but conventional arty. U.S. counterbattery fire and airstrikes would silence most Nork tubes within an hour. Anyway, the regime up north knows that any provocation on that level has only one endgame: their death or imprisonment. Thus, life goes on south of the DMZ as it has for 57 years regardless of what the pundits say.



Prince of Eckmühl -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/3/2010 4:04:17 PM)

In the USA, this really isn't being treated as a BIG international story. What's getting much wider and more urgent coverage is the Israeli raid on the Turkish peace convoy. Wonder where the media is taking their cues from? [;)]



NefariousKoel -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/3/2010 8:47:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Prince of Eckmühl

In the USA, this really isn't being treated as a BIG international story. What's getting much wider and more urgent coverage is the Israeli raid on the Turkish peace convoy. Wonder where the media is taking their cues from? [;)]


Yep.

Terrible media. Typical, though.



Erik Rutins -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/3/2010 9:18:27 PM)

Hi guys,

If you want to keep discussing this, please stay on topic in terms of a military comparison of a hypothetical North/South Korean conflict. I'm interested in that particular subject as well as I studied it quite a bit during the Korea '99 scenario design process in TOAW II. I realize this involves current events, but please let's not veer off onto tangents involving politics and other subjects, or I will need to lock this thread. It may be impossible to keep this from being locked, but let's give it a try.

Regards,

- Erik



AndySfromVA -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/3/2010 9:57:16 PM)

Assuming North and South Korea do go to war, but it's a conventional war only - no Nukes. And also assume no other country intervenes.

Does anyone know which country is stronger militarily?



doomtrader -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/3/2010 10:24:58 PM)

Theoretically North Korea (at least in numbers)



doomtrader -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/3/2010 10:31:21 PM)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Korea_Armed_Forces
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People's_Army



NefariousKoel -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/4/2010 12:58:15 AM)

Yeah, NK by a good amount.

But I think they count much of their population in that figure and their supply situation isn't exactly up to snuff. [:D]



Capt. Harlock -> RE: North Korea v South Korea prepare for WAR ? (6/4/2010 1:20:43 AM)

quote:

But I think they count much of their population in that figure and their supply situation isn't exactly up to snuff.


That's a key consideration, all right. Any prolonged war would collapse the North Korean economy, which is already on life support courtesy of China. At a wild guess, Pyongyang would have perhaps two weeks to force a South Korean surrender. After that, their troops would run out of food, fuel, and firepower. And this time it is unlikely that the Russians and Chinese would resupply them.

Concerning artillery: first point is that modern artillery would need only a few hours to reduce a city to non-functional status. If the North Koreans used phosphorus or other incendiaries, the secondary effects could be severe. Second point is that U.S. counter-battery fire would, IMHO, not be terribly effective. Artillery has been a weak point of the U.S. Army for some time. (During Desert Storm we discovered that the Iraqis had better guns than we did.) More, there are fewer than 30,000 U.S. troops left in Korea at the moment. The Pentagon has for a long time relied on airstrikes rather than cannons for long-range damage.

And this is why the Prime Minister of Japan just lost his job. He had pledged to remove the U.S. base from Okinawa entirely. But, if a quick glance at the map is correct, that is the closest significant base to Korea (other than those in Korea itself). The American government informed him that they would consider re-locating the base to another point on the island, but moving off the island entirely was a non-starter.



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