RE: 6th and 7th April 1942 (Full Version)

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BBfanboy -> RE: 6th and 7th April 1942 (9/1/2010 9:37:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: janh

I don't know why FatR stopped posting completely his part of the AAR, but it makes me think you are up for a really nasty big surprise.  But this will make this AAR more interesting than ever!! 

Nothing would be more boring than the Allied side gaining the upper hand so early in the war -- then the rest would reduce to the equations of attrition.   The Allied side must basically always win, but I like it best if it is really close to the last moment.  That's why I am often bored by players hording their CV's for the perfect moment to strike with all "599 million of them in a perfectly planned 7 hex attack tactic".  I find, compared to most AAR's, that historically the USN and IJN did split their CV div's more often and use them in small TFs and riskier operations.  Think of all the naval engagements preceding "Operation Watchtower" and the naval actions around the Coral Sea and Guadalcanal.  Plenty of separate CV engagements, which USN feeding ships into the fray pretty much as they arrive.  Yet I cannot recall an AAR where players have been playing in a similar fashion.  Rather most would wait until mid-43, until a substantial CV could be gathered, before attacking the Solomons.  Why is that?  What aspect, or approximation is leading to this "gamey" behavior?  Or is it just a wrong impression?


I have read around 15 AARs and have an impression of what the players are saying about the game model. There are two factors that make allied players hoard their carriers: - the Japanese Über CAP gives little chance that a small strike [less than 4 carriers combined] will get through while ensuring horrendous aircraft losses
- replacement aircraft for the Allies early in the war are very scarce. One heavy engagement could cripple the CVs for months for lack of aircraft, even if they didn't get creamed by the longer-ranged Kates and Vals.

On the IJN side, most players know only too well that loss of a couple of carriers in 1942 would put them at a severe disadvantage in 1943, whereas having all of them available plus new construction gives near parity with the Allies into 1944. The best way to avoid losses is to mass them so that the Allies do not dare approach.

Having said that, I agree with you that games with many risky operations are more dramatic and fun to follow than those with only a few huge, well-supported ones. I especially like when the AAR author does not say exactly what he is planning until he springs the surprise - keeps us all guessing.[sm=00000619.gif]



witpqs -> RE: Gameys and HR (9/2/2010 12:39:28 AM)

Rasmus,

The developers probably could/should adjust night bombing success somewhat but there are multiple counter-measures available and both sides can do it. In my PBM we both do it but within limits. Yes it might have results 'different than IRL' right now, but it's not gamey unless you over-use it. Also from what I have seen the results are quite variable, with good results being less usual. Putting even day-fighters on night duty does reduce the bombers' success.



Walloc -> RE: Gameys and HR (9/2/2010 8:14:18 AM)

Hi Witpqs,

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Rasmus,

The developers probably could/should adjust night bombing success somewhat but there are multiple counter-measures available and both sides can do it.


I agree, but chances are that developers arent gona. So its up to players to regulate it, if any regulation is needed/wanted.


quote:


In my PBM we both do it but within limits. Yes it might have results 'different than IRL' right now, but it's not gamey unless you over-use it.


Im not telling u how u and ur PBM partner should play the game. Its naturally up too u 2 to decide. There was a discussion on the subject and i gave my opinion. U guys want it in the game, have it in game[:)]

Apart from some washmachine charlie single plane night bombing simply wasnt a thing done and certainly not any sustained effords. Only other examples i know of was some russian attacks where as i know it. Only a single attack had any real effect, why it didnt and wasnt gona be a widely used tactic. Let alone a succesfull one. IMO simply cuz it wouldnt have work doing "precison" bombing at night vs tactical targets. So historicly it wasnt really an option.

Having a little is to me a slippery slope. When is a little historic, when it wasnt used at all, and whats stopping it from crossing the border to being to much. Only very subjective opinions.

Overall problem as ably IMO shown in this example. Is that when day bombing an AF isnt a choice, the player as shown here resorts to a tactic of night bombing. Thats IMO a throughly unhistoric thot process. Historic if u couldnt bomb it by day u didnt bomb it, periode. As i see Yubaris thot process and feel free to correct if im wrong. It seems to me that the thot process in this particular situasion is exactly that. I cant bomb the AF by day so ill make an sustained night bombing campaign. To me thats the alrdy down the slippery slope at a fast pace. Later in game when the jap player knows u cant really do day bombings cuz of allied superiority whats, since pandora's box is alrdy open, is to stop the jap player and with reason since if player A can do it why cant player B. Resorting to night time AF bombings campaigns.
It becomes a viable tactic, it simply wasnt RL, no matter distance, AF level, moonlight and so on. This to me is just after rationalizing it cuz it work in game so it might have had in RL. Problem is that these wasnt the limiting factors in RL. As there are no historical basis whats so ever, even with these factors that it was ever used vs tactical targets. The limiters was of other sorts.

Its just my word of caution to Yubari and any one else, as i see it. Allowing the tactic, you might very well set ur self on a slippery slope and would u be happy about the end results.

quote:


Also from what I have seen the results are quite variable, with good results being less usual. Putting even day-fighters on night duty does reduce the bombers' success.


Yup, there are counter measures but they arent IMO that effective, but some what so ofc go ahead and use them. As seen when Yubari attack the non overstacked AF he still cause 5-6ish plane losses. Thats possibly 100-150+ lost planes in a sustained campaign per month vs just one base. Thats as far as i've seen, figur wise, more than the german losses from russian AF attacks through out the entire war.

Highjack /off

Rasmus



witpqs -> RE: Gameys and HR (9/2/2010 8:47:11 AM)

{Hijack back on! [;)]}

Hi Rasmus!

Never thought you were trying to push house rules on others, sorry if I gave that impression.

Much of what you say is true, but not in the absolute degree in which you assert it. For example, night bombing was done. Saying that a player who chooses to night bomb is using an unhistorical decision process is not accurate. IRL night bombing was not done for fun, it was done because bombing during the day was deemed impossible/impractical/wasn't working, so the player is using exactly the same decision making process.

The effectiveness of night bombing in the game versus IRL is certainly a valid question. Flowing from there, how should it be used in the game?

In my PBM we have some lengthy experience with night bombing, and the results are not in line with what you seem to be thinking. As I recall it we are seeing a great deal of variability, with effective raids being less usual. Also in contrast to what you have seen, counter-measures do have a meaningful impact on the effects of the raids. Even day-fighters help to reduce the damage from raids over the long term. Definitely damage from night raids is far less than from day raids, even when the night raids are unopposed.

IMO a ban on night bombing would detract from the game. Short of a ban, what house rules on night bombing would you support?

{Hijack off}



janh -> RE: Gameys and HR (9/2/2010 10:57:26 AM)

My two cents:  Ask yourself the question why the British Bomber Command never conducted night raids against "point targets" like airfields, barracks, etc.  With hundreds of heavily armed, 4E bombers available by 1943, why wouldn't they just shut down the airfields over the entire northern Germany in one or two night raids, before then sending in the USAAF daylight raids without escort but also without significant opposition.  Or why the hit criterium for a bomber crew on night raids was hitting an 8km (needs confirmation, might have been 10) radius around the target site?
I have the impression that the guys that presently try to mod WITP-AE into European War game (where did they ever disappear?), will run into exactly that problem with the present air model in AE.  I cannot say of course where this come from, but something seems to be off with the efficiencies of night and day bombing.  Maybe it is just wrong impression.  It just feels like: "Why the hell didn't McArthur close Rabaul from August 1942 if the 4E are so sheer indestructible and efficient in closing down airfields, and reduce it as base for naval interdiction?"



vettim89 -> RE: Gameys and HR (9/2/2010 1:43:10 PM)

I can see both sides of the argument here but I go back to my orginal post on the topic. This is the Reluctant Admiral Mod. If you are unfamiliar with it, you might run over to either the thread in the Scenario Design and Mod Forum or just look at John 3's "Days of Infamy" AAR where he gives the low down on the first page. This mod is a JFB wet dream. He gets basically everything the Japanese lacked in the war from extra CV's to better planes to engineering vehicles. In light of the fact that Yubari agreed to play this mod, I think a little understanding that the Allies may resort to some different tactics just to stay afloat is needed. One thing the game does model is that fatigue and morale on long range night bombing raids climbs very fast which is accurate. As I pointed out before these are not long range raids. For B-17's these are short hops.

As to Bomber Command's tactics, I think you need to look at the political and psychologic factors that went into the campaign. The RAF (Bomber Harris) wanted revenge for The Blitz. He wanted to give it out the way the British people had taken it. When you read about the fire storms at places like Hamburg, you cannot deny that the mission of the RAF heavies was not really all that tactical.

As to why Mac didn't shut down Rabaul in 1942? He only had a few dozen B-17/24 at his disposal. THe USAAF didn't really start deploying the heavies to the PTO in numbers until 1943.



Walloc -> RE: Gameys and HR (9/2/2010 5:24:13 PM)

Hi Witpqs,

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I never thought you were trying to push house rules on others, sorry if I gave that impression.


Good i was fearing i was and it wasnt my intension.

quote:


Much of what you say is true, but not in the absolute degree in which you assert it. For example, night bombing was done. Saying that a player who chooses to night bomb is using an unhistorical decision process is not accurate. IRL night bombing was not done for fun, it was done because bombing during the day was deemed impossible/impractical/wasn't working, so the player is using exactly the same decision making process.

Let me rephrase then. The thot process regarding tactical bombings wasnt as such. If u couldnt hit it at day, u instead hit it at night.
Not bombing in general and obviously not strategical bombing. Again if some one can point to any historical presedence of sustained night bombing campaigns vs airfields with the purpose of killing of planes having any succes or other tactical targets. I'd agree, else i stick to my point.

quote:


The effectiveness of night bombing in the game versus IRL is certainly a valid question. Flowing from there, how should it be used in the game?


Agreed, ofc my POV steems from the issue that in my experience u can hit both planes and ships with succes enough to turn it into a valid tactical use.

quote:


In my PBM we have some lengthy experience with night bombing, and the results are not in line with what you seem to be thinking. As I recall it we are seeing a great deal of variability, with effective raids being less usual. Also in contrast to what you have seen, counter-measures do have a meaningful impact on the effects of the raids. Even day-fighters help to reduce the damage from raids over the long term. Definitely damage from night raids is far less than from day raids, even when the night raids are unopposed.


My experince comes from a game, where my very experienced opponent found it less than fun to tangle with the Buzzsaw in massed numbers. So instead turned to a nightbombing campaign vs Calcutta harbor and AF. I certainly agree that the results was less than day bombing im not arguing that. Im saying that night bombing have to great effects on devices Ships/planes. That can be "abused" by night bombing attacks/campaigns.

In one attack yes this wasnt the norm but goes to show what is possible. 18 betties mananged to hit 6 out 7 ships in the harbor some with multiple hits. This was vs every AA gun unit in the indian/burma theather less those on Ceylon in march/april 42. Plus those that had made it out of Malaya. Too boot was there a dedicated night figther unit on watch. The Blenheim IF tho ofc not the best night figther in the world.
This was absolutly the top of curve. On average 1-2-3 hits on 7ish ship was hit on more "normal" attacks. Thats still enough to sink mechies over time. I was also losing more planes on the ground than he was doing the bombing on average. No overstacking and only F at the base after a few attacks.
Did it have any effect, sure he after losing a few betties, swicthed over to IJAAF bombers cuz of their pilots are worth less but it didnt change the results of the bombing. Not cuz teh bombing wasnt paying off. Just smart pilot management.

quote:


IMO a ban on night bombing would detract from the game. Short of a ban, what house rules on night bombing would you support?


Well ofc i wanted the modifer for device hits to be reviewed, but i dont think its gona happen.
The odd thing if u for example look at Yubari's example in above post after the overstacking. If one looks at number of hits vs the AF 20 it cause 3 kills. Funny thing is that in my experience 20 day hits wont cause 3 killz in general.
This is the exact same as in my experince. If u look at actual hits vs AF at night vs the at day hits vs AF it arent off. U hit lot less in the night as expected.
Its the device hits that are way off, for some reason it seems u get alot more for ur buck in the night bombings.

So i dont have a problem with the actual bombing of the AF since the hits are so low that its within reason, it doesnt alter the game in any significant way.
Its the device killz that make it so "attractive" and IMHO those that are way off. Hitting an aircraft at a night bombing of an AF is matter of pure luck. Espcially since most of the bombs wouldnt hit the AF at all and those that did was per say targetted.
Its any JFB wet dream if they think about it, to starting to do night campaigns vs 4E based AFs, IMHO.

As too ur question Witpqs. Well until, but i dont think it will be. The device ratio of hits at night is changed i would support a ban. No solutions i see really tackles the issue.
Since u ask for alternatives. I guess it could be only attack an AF every so or so days. Or counting the device hits and saying ok u cant bomb now for X days or what ever. A very tedious solution admited.
Problem as said it the "attactiveness" of these attacks lay in the device hits given for night bombings not the damage done to the actual AF/port.
Its that IMHO that, that needs to be "regulated".
Again giving free advice of the day to JFB, night bomb those 4E bases if u want some free 4E killz and stop crying about not being able to kill them.
Its this sorta viable strategy that makes me support a ban Witpqs. The ability too specificly targeting planes on the ground for night bombing attacks. It was in RL never remotely a viable strategy. It was never in seriousness attempted as it wasnt possible. Saying that night bombings occured while ofc true hasnt nothing IMHO to do with the possible tactic that AE has open up for in this case.
i stress as this thread ably shows, that this isnt a AFB vs JFB issue as it is shown, it goes both ways.

Kind regards,

Rasmus



anarchyintheuk -> RE: Gameys and HR (9/2/2010 5:51:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Walloc

Let me rephrase then. The thot process regarding tactical bombings wasnt as such. If u couldnt hit it at day, u instead hit it at night.
Not bombing in general and obviously not strategical bombing. Again if some one can point to any historical presedence of sustained night bombing campaigns vs airfields with the purpose of killing of planes having any succes or other tactical targets. I'd agree, else i stick to my point.



My $.02.

Given the specific set of circumstances I have no problem w/ the night bombing. As said above, effectiveness is the issue. If you're the HI air force commander, the enemy has one base w/i tactical range of PH, you have excellent intelligence about the base (it is on your island and maps), some of your pilots have probably flown off of that base, you don't have air superiority, the enemy has a lot of day fighters, your fighters have been shown to be inferior to the enemy's . . . what would you do? I can almost picture a staff guy saying: "Hey, I got an idea."

Looking for precedence is useful, unless it is a novel situation like the one above. In the strategic bombing campaigns in the eto and pto the areas attacked had literally dozens of airfields w/i range of bomber interception. So many so that it was pointless to attempt to suppress them all to be of any tactical value. Eventually, allied air superiority made suppression irrrelevant.



SuluSea -> RE: 6th and 7th April 1942 (9/2/2010 6:16:20 PM)

Interesting AAR Yubari, keep up the good work!

From Micheal M this spring

quote:

Night bombing takes accuracy hits from plane damage, weather/clouds, pilot skill, group morale, flight disruption, non-city attack.
There is an increase in accuracy if target has a high Max DL.

The later is most likely the culprit for any excess in night bombing as we know that the max DL seems to be a runaway figure; the max DL check against the random 10 will always be true in these cases.


The allies conducted small night operations in mid '42 Lae, Rangoon and even Rebaul were targets if they could have been pulled off it's easy to concieve bombers could conduct night operations  4/5 hexes away in their own backyard. This is just one persons opinion, I haven't bombed too much at night but if someone comes into my back yard it's all hands on deck and it should be expected.



Walloc -> RE: Gameys and HR (9/2/2010 6:35:30 PM)

Hi Anarchy I agree so far in the effectivness, but not in that this is a novel situasion.

quote:

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Given the specific set of circumstances I have no problem w/ the night bombing. As said above, effectiveness is the issue. If you're the HI air force commander, the enemy has one base w/i tactical range of PH, you have excellent intelligence about the base (it is on your island and maps), some of your pilots have probably flown off of that base, you don't have air superiority, the enemy has a lot of day fighters, your fighters have been shown to be inferior to the enemy's . . . what would you do? I can almost picture a staff guy saying: "Hey, I got an idea."


About intelligence the added AF level is most likely a new base. The 9 AF PH in it self is 4 bases. What if allies take over a base that japs has used. Is it then allowed for jap to night bomb that cuz they knew the base?
I think ppl fail to get that to find a AF at night is a needle in a hay stack. Then targetting the planes / randomly hitting them is another needle in that needle that is in the hay stack. Problem is that it isnt currently in game so. Any "special" situasion still gets unhistoricly based results. I dont think Yubari is bombing cuz he thinks he can supprese the base. Only reason for doing it as i read him is to get some nice planes killed. That is IMHO using the overeffectivness gamingly. Whether or not this is a "special" situasion. That is not to whack at Yubari. Going out of on a limb here. IMO thats the only reason ppl use night attack, the device killz. If ppl agree device are indeed off the entire reasoning for doing night attack is then by the nature of it gamey. I do some thing i know is off, but i do it any how cuz it pays off.

quote:


Looking for precedence is useful, unless it is a novel situation like the one above. In the strategic bombing campaigns in the eto and pto the areas attacked had literally dozens of airfields w/i range of bomber interception. So many so that it was pointless to attempt to suppress them all to be of any tactical value. Eventually, allied air superiority made suppression irrrelevant.


Actually its not an uncommon situasion IMHO. Rheine AF is a perfect example. In late 44 it was the main base and one of only 8 AF in germany that has long enough runways to field Me-262 and only one in that area. Allied knew this perfectly well. They wanted that base dead BADLY. Even came up with novel figther tactics(rat tactics) and counter jet incursion tactics. Used against that particular base only.
It was only 10 mins flight time/50 miles from allied lines, they had intelligence on it. It was reconed several time a day when weather allowed it.
It was bombed several times to absolutly no avail. Certainly didnt stop the jets from using it or having the jets destroyed on the ground. It the end it was forbidden to enter the airzone near the AF cuz of flak concentration and losses that followed. If any1 would have thot a 1000 plane night raid would have work, im sure they would have tried.

Any how ill stop figthing the proverbial windmills, and let Yubari have his AAR back,

Rasmus



BBfanboy -> RE: 6th and 7th April 1942 (9/2/2010 6:44:07 PM)

One thing I haven't seen mentioned here that I have seen in other AARs: day fighters CAN be used at night. [;)]
Yup, they will fly and will suffer occasional op losses [just like the day bombers operating at night] and they are not as effective as they would be in day, but they can take down some of the attackers.
Of course they can't match a radar-equipped night fighter but they could sometimes see an enemy bomber's engine sparks and home in on that.
IRL I have even heard of one plane being sent to high level to drop flares to silhouette enemy planes for the fighters.

Point is - there is somewhat of a remedy here for the defender to disrupt the night bombing.

Re: the lack of use of 4E bombers for night bombing in the Pacific IRL, by the time the US had numbers of them available they also had long range fighters for escorts and could attack during the day with acceptable losses and better results.



yubari -> 8th April 1942 (9/3/2010 2:35:51 PM)

Wow, this has produced quite a discussion since I last came here! I do not really want to comment any further on the issue but it is interesting to notice that the real position of Kona International Airport is about 1 kilometre from the coast almost out on a peninsula, it would probably be very easy to find at night in any kind of moonlight.

Anyway, on with the game, and the fairly quiet 8th April turn.

Hawaii.
B-17s attack at Kona and destroy a Zero and 2 Sallies on the ground, the first time that I have seen bombers in the theatre. With what appears to be a battleship task force on the way towards Kona, it looks as if FatR will be trying another ground attack at Hilo soon, forts have been built up to level 3 in the last turn.

DEI.
340 ships are now based at Singapore and recon shows a task force with 3 battleships. There are now 17 ground units there so quite a few have left since the conquest of the base a few weeks ago. Some have moved presumably to Burma and Java.
A Japanese shock assault at Balikpapan takes the important base, now only Malang and Bandjermasin survive. Malang has built up to level 3 forts again and has plenty of supplies but will probably fall in a couple of weeks.

India.
No sigint or appearance of any moves towards India yet, but I am still assuming that this is where the main effort is going to be made. The Royal Navy is now a couple of days away from Columbo where it will refuel.

China.
Japan is now concentrating its army airforce bombers against Chuhshien, I have about 1800 AV here in rough wooded terrain.



Smeulders -> RE: 8th April 1942 (9/3/2010 4:16:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: yubari

India.
No sigint or appearance of any moves towards India yet, but I am still assuming that this is where the main effort is going to be made. The Royal Navy is now a couple of days away from Columbo where it will refuel.



I'm not really familiar with the strength of Japan in this mod, but would it really have the strength to be attacking Hawaii and India at the same time ? He seems to invest an awfull lot in Hawaii for it to just be a diversion.



yubari -> 9th April 1942 (9/5/2010 7:34:07 AM)

Hawaii.
Overnight B-17 bombers on attack shoot down 3 Zeroes for no losses of their own but cannot score any bomb hits at all. Moonlight is now down to 28 percent, and is falling at 10 percent daily, I wonder if this affects night bombing accuracy? 20 Sallies also try a night port attack and get only 2 hits. I shall move all of my Navy and marine fighters to night time CAP to try to interdict, I am terribly short of Wildcats and couldnt really take even one day of losses in a large day time battle.

The mini KB is apparently back and stationed 8 hexes away from Pearl Harbour. Firstly, this suggests that an invasion of India is off and secondly it means that my attempt at naval bombardment of Kona airfield will be even more dangerous. I have to admire the guts of my opponent to send such a weak force within 8 hexes of the biggest allied base on the map with the US Navy position unknown.

4 of the US carriers leave the West Coast, the Saratoga will be ready to move the following turn. The CA San Francisco is torpedoed by a Japanese sub for medium damage, and the cruisers from this task force are spotted by a torpedo bomber, at only 14 hexes away from the mini KB, I shall have to retreat them all.

India.
The reappearance of the mini KB in Hawaii combined with the cessation of sweeping over Calcutta suggest to me that the Indian attack (if it was ever really planned) has been called off. With an invasion of India apparently off, I change a lot of orders and start to move my forces around in preparation for future events. The AVG is immediately sent back towards China where I will try to shoot down more unescorted allied bombers.

China.
Japan is now trying an offensive in the north of the country, against units in a mountain hex. With IJAAF bombers keeping my troops stuck in combat mode, I will probably be defeated here as well.

DEI.
Dutch units on Sumatra have formed a final redoubt at Medan in Jungle territory. No attacks on Malang, but lots of Japanese units approaching.



yubari -> 10th April 1942 (9/5/2010 1:56:35 PM)

Smeulders, I think that FatR was planning on an invasion of India, at least until the setbacks that he suffered at Hilo at the end of March. I do not think that Japan has enough to take out both India and Hawaii, I do not think that they get any extra ground troops, but I think that any Indian invasion would be an attempt to take on and destroy the Royal Navy. You were right though, I think any Indian invasion is off. I will only know the truth I guess after the war is over.

The advantages of Japan are mainly more carriers, more powerful carriers, more powerful naval aircraft that arrive earlier in the war, a few more naval squadrons, a couple of extra battlecruisers and a few more cruisers and destroyers. Although I have never played it, I think that this is a significantly harder mod than scenario two for the allied player.

Hawaii.
Curses. It looks like the full KB is back in town and is now stationed five hexes from Pearl Harbour, recon shows there to be 320 planes on the carriers and four CVs, but I shall assume that this is the full KB for the moment. A nearby submarine took a shot at CVL Nisshin but missed. Two more Zeroes are destroyed on the ground at Kona and two bomb hits are scored, it seems that moonlight strongly affects the accuracy of night bombing.

In daytime, there is a huge sweep of Zeroes over Pearl Harbour and the fighting again goes towards the Japanese, 11 Zeroes are destroyed for 38 allied fighters. With the Japanese able to massively outproduce me at this point in the war, and having huge qualitative superiority, I think that I have to surrender the airspace over Pearl Harbour, letting FatR sweep regularly and occasionally launching an ambush. With this will come the abandonment of my mission to try to bombard and destroy Kona airfield, all of the cruisers that I have brought into Pearl Harbour will retreat at full speed towards the West Coast as will the battleships, which had been just two days away. It is only now obvious how important the effect of the slow upgrade of the Saratoga was.

Torpedoed last turn, CA San Francisco makes it back to a friendly harbour but will be out of the war for a couple of months.

What now.
Assuming that Japan is now bringing more troops towards Hawaii, the fall of Hilo is now inevitable, I shall try to evacuate as many troops as possible. I need to fight this war more on a strategic level as I simply cannot win a straight up fight with the KB, and probably will not be able to until mid 1944. I think that the only decent chance of a battle will be if I can manoeuvre the KB into a position in neutral waters against the combined USN and Royal Navy.

Although the Japanese possess the tactical advantage around the Pearl Harbour area, I still have control of two large bases at Lahaina and Pearl Harbour and both bases have a large collection of coastal guns. I shall withdraw all of my bombers from these bases but the threat of them being brought in suddenly means that FatR will have to keep a large number of fighters in the area. Similarly the threat of the USN appearing means that FatR needs to keep the full KB around the area permanently if he wants to keep naval superiority. I need to setup a second front a long way from Pearl Harbour and I need to do it quickly. I also need to keep the US carriers well hidden.

I am also hopeful that the industrial demands of Japan in this mod, the huge amount of sailing that the Japanese fleet has done (I dont think that any of the IJN capital ships have spent a day in port since the start of the war) and the massively increased production that FatR must be running will cause severe economic problems in the fairly near future.

If this was a normal scenario 1 game, then I would definitely fight a carrier battle in this situation, but as the Zeroes in this mod are so powerful, I fear it would be a slaughter for my air crews. In this situation, keeping the US navy alive is the priority.

DEI.
A Japanese attack at Malang takes the forts down to level 2 but gets 1 to 2 odds and causes Japan three times the casualties. 200AV have congregated at Langsa and should be able to hold off the Japanese assault.

Australia.
There has been no move against Australia at all. In a month or so, I shall start moving troops northwards and try to get a large convoy through to Darwin. If I can get just one 100000 supply convoy through, it should be enough to supply the whole area for months and instantly threaten the Timor area.



Grfin Zeppelin -> RE: 9th April 1942 (9/5/2010 3:34:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: yubari








The AVG is immediately sent back towards China where I will try to shoot down more unescorted allied bombers.




Someone should hang this bunch of traitors.



bigred -> RE: 8th April 1942 (9/5/2010 7:27:26 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Smeulders


quote:

ORIGINAL: yubari

India.
No sigint or appearance of any moves towards India yet, but I am still assuming that this is where the main effort is going to be made. The Royal Navy is now a couple of days away from Columbo where it will refuel.



I'm not really familiar with the strength of Japan in this mod, but would it really have the strength to be attacking Hawaii and India at the same time ? He seems to invest an awfull lot in Hawaii for it to just be a diversion.


My understanding is the Sen70 IJA ground forces are the same as senario 1. W/ exception made for 2 engineer vehicles in some IJA engineer battalions.



yubari -> 11th April 1942 (9/6/2010 8:46:53 AM)

Graefin Zeppelin[:D] I should spend more time checkign what I right!

I think that you are right on that Bigred. I think that John3rd said that political points are increased slightly for both sides but that shouldn't make so much of a difference.

Hawaii.
The Japanese carriers are now two hexes south of Pearl Harbour, recon shows them to be 2 large carriers and 5 small carriers and to hold a total of 330 planes. There are also three task forces at Molokai, one of which apparently contains some battleships. The base is empty but no Japanese troops have been landed as of yet. I shall fight against this force if I know the location of the main KB, that has not been spotted since the 4th April when the Akagi was torpedoed around Johnston Island. If the KB did indeed head to Kwajalein for new planes and then back towards Hawaii, it should be arriving again in three or four turns.

For this next turn, I am launching a large LBA attack against the carriers. All of the B-17Es have day naval attack orders and the Catalinas and dive bombers should be attacking at night. I have been terribly disappointed by the performance of my submarines, they are lurking around as well. In the air, I have stood down all of my fighters and 80 sweeping Japanese fighters encounter nothing over Pearl Harbour. There are Sallies bombing Hilo but they are attacking at 30000 feet and doing no damage at all.

DEI.
The Sallies are attacking Malang at 30000 feet as well. Is FatR short of planes, terrified of flak or just running experiments? They are certainly useless up at this height.

China.
Chinese H-81 pilots find an unescorted Sally raid and shoot down three of them plus a Sonia.
The AVG is now back in theatre to search for Japanese[:'(] bombers.

India.
The Royal Navy has made it safely back to base. A Royal navy carrier will start its April 42 upgrade. I notice that the Illustrious class upgrade to a 56 plane capacity in 1943. With the armoured bomb decks, this should make them just about the equal of the smaller Japanese carriers.

Planes
Japan apparently lost it`s 2000th plane today.



yubari -> 12th April 1942 (9/8/2010 8:58:48 AM)

This was the most depressing turn of the war for me. In material terms, this turn was not so bad. I lost 33 planes to the Japanese 15 and no ships or bases were lost. There was even that glooping sinking sound that indicates that an enemy ship was sunk, possibly an APD or destroyer that was reported hit by patrol planes. It was depressing as what was my main offensive weapon, the B-17Es were slaughtered by the enemy Zeroes. Fully nineteen were destroyed when they tried to attack the enemy carriers in daylight and not a single hit was scored. My heavy bomber force is now in ruins and the enemy carriers look to be untouchable. What is even more depressing is that this was the enemy second team, none of the Pearl Harbour carriers were even present. The roll call for the enemy carriers is CV Junyo, CVL Ryujo, Nisshin, Shoho, Zuiho, CVE Taiyo, CVE Hosho

Hawaii.
I think that the Japanese are trying to lure my carriers out to fight. The mini KB (which is probably still the equal of the US fleet) is there as a sacrifical lamb and the main KB is lurking just outside of scouting range ready to destroy any carriers which are damaged in the battle.
Sigint shows the 40th Brigade, which previously took Balikpapan to be preparing to invade Lahaina. This would be a most interesting land battle, I have two dedicated coastal gun units here, possessing four times the punch of those at Hilo. It is to be hoped that Japan is not able to land before the end of April, the crucial end of the invasion bonus.

Realistically, I have made a terrible defence of Hawaii, my main mistake was not being aggressive enough early on. Had I been more aggressive I could probably have kept Kona airfield closed around three weeks ago and then have fought a carrier battle in the last week. Another mistake was to send the Saratoga into upgrade at the wrong time.

China.
There are now 19 units along the strange mountain road north of Tsiaotso. Two Chinese corps will be retreated, hounded to death by Japanese bombers and then destroyed. This could also mark the start of a large enemy offensive towards Sian, bypassing the rough wooded terrain south of that city.

Psychology.
As has probably been apparent to you dear readers, the last couple of weeks have been a rollercoaster of emotions; I have gone from periods where I think that I have the battle won and then a couple of days later it starts looking hopeless again. The reappearance of the Japanese carriers just one day before I was to start my naval bombardments of Kona was a particular disappointment.
I am aware now of being psychologically damaged and looking for revenge, and this is the most dangerous emotion of all. FatR is also beginning to gloat and that is pretty low I think, especially when you have created a mod such as this.
The war shall go on but I might not post here for a few weeks.

The mod.
Any allied players should think very strongly before playing this mod, and I regret starting with it. Never mind, I shall continue until the end. I should have carrier parity by about the end of 1944, earlier if I dont lose any carriers before then. The biggest concern is the phenomenal performance of the Zeroes, I think that this should be toned down considerably in any future rewrites.



janh -> RE: 12th April 1942 (9/8/2010 9:59:43 AM)

I don't think you need to worry about mistakes defending Hawaii.  As it looks now, your opponent will either feed forces into to get those islands as long as it still seems possible, or he will withdraw at some point and call it a major raid.   Anywho, this makes this AAR outstanding and another extremely "what-if" scenario (like Seydlitz Russian adventure).  Whatever the outcome will be, you can attrit FatR in the Hawaiian chain and prepare him for what is to come.  You still will receive much superior forces in the long-term, especially quality-wise air assets. FatR's frustration, as much as yours, seems to stem from being in really really tight game, and reading both sides I can say none of you has won or lost anything crucial so far. Both sides are doing well, and suffer similarly from the famous friction (i.e. mistakes, miscoordination, learning effects etc).
Even if you'd loose all of the islands, I wouldn't be too worried, but rather expect that this game would be extremely fascinating and drawing you both in until 1946.  Imagine how boring it could be if he had played historically, and you could just play the numbers game? Keep this AAR going, really interesting stuff!

I suppose you are either right about the MiniKB trap, i.e. KB lurking in the shadows to intercept your CVs and battlewagons, or you will soon face KB in the Indian AO with a little amphibious surprise on its heels.  FatR is quite inventive, as you are... 






topeverest -> RE: 12th April 1942 (9/8/2010 3:02:28 PM)

Yubari,

In a tough fought campaign, you will just hurt yourself dwelling on missed opportunities - and there ALWAYS are missed opportunities. Rather, take each outcome as a learning experience. I dont need to tell you that you cant win every battle. You made a calculated risk, but you did not get the outcome you wanted. Ask yourself this...How can you apply your existing tactics to get the outcome you want and / or what new tactics do you need to employ to successfully execute a full repulse of the enemy. What steps are needed to turn the tide of the campaign, and what forces will be used?

In deciding this, you will find the solution that works for you. Any one of us viewing the AAR can provide input if desired.

IMHO, you made no citical blunders, despite what you might think. The enemy is very formidable. Your respect of his abilities is not unfounded. You have your carriers and PH is very secure. That is the core of your future success.



bigred -> RE: 12th April 1942 (9/10/2010 1:17:50 AM)

That which does not kill us makes us stronger.
Friedrich Nietzsche

The above quote reminds me that you will later be a stronger play after this game.

quote:

The mod.
Any allied players should think very strongly before playing this mod, and I regret starting with it. Never mind, I shall continue until the end. I should have carrier parity by about the end of 1944, earlier if I dont lose any carriers before then. The biggest concern is the phenomenal performance of the Zeroes, I think that this should be toned down considerably in any future rewrites.


I agree w/ Topeverest. Hang in there. It is interesting to note the amount of fuel supply being used by IJN to play the Pearl gambit.
I do wonder if FatR is able to later assault Pearl. Not sure his shore bombardment can shut down the most heavily defended island in the world(at that time). Remember you have 126 dedicated CD guns on Pearl.

I recall some section of the manual dealing w/ IJA pilot advantage. If I recall correctly Jap pilot ratings were modified in the first 5 months of the game as follows, +5,+4,+3,+2,+1 w/ this rating decreasing each month as the allied fighter units get their tactics together. Could not figure what this means, but it looks tough for the allied player. So tactically early the only thing u can do is bomb him w/ b17s and fly where he is not until May/June w/ everything else.

Be advised that to reinforce pearl w/ air you can fly your p39/p40s off carriers (I think)but not land on CVs. So if you lose your CVs early to a baited CV battle at Pearl (jap advantage)then you later may have a hard time flying in your ftr LBA. IJN will station his scouts to allow his KB to counter react.

I had an aggressive Jap in my first AE. Scared me real bad...just wait till late 42. Everything he puts into Hawaii will be victory points for you later as he can not get them out. You will bomb his ships in port as he picks them up.

I am sure you both have gotten your worth back out of this game.



John 3rd -> RA 2c--Art Update (9/10/2010 5:14:22 AM)

Hey Guys. I just read the entire AAR and wanted to Post a little bit.

Scenario Comments:
1. We've been discussing the Zeros (M2) over in the Mod Thread and the only difference between Stock and this is about 10 MPH. When the variants (pure Zero vs. Interceptor models) start to appear then things go their own way. It would appear to be mass and quality that is carrying the day. Remember that is ONLY April 42 and this seems about right by the numbers and combat reports I have seen.

2. Since it is April the only major changes to Japanese OOB is (by now) CVL Nisshin and CV Junyo being in the fight. No other additional historically deployed CVs are operational beyond them. Beware mighty Yamato! She is out there too...

3. As Bigred mentioned there are only a few minor OOB changes for the for the IJA LCU. The IJN LCU have more engineers and vehicles but not too many.

4. Bigred's comment about fuel is important. I'll wager FatR is running a dangerous race with his fuel supplies. The Japanese start WAY down in both supply and fuel (about 1,500,000 of each) due to the ramping up of the economy just prior to the war starting.

That is just about it.

Yubari--don't despair! It appears FatR has thrown the entire kitchen sink at Hawaii and is trying to hit it out of the park. Slow him down, stall some, and things will begin to turn...

My .02!



yubari -> 13th and 14th April 1942 (9/10/2010 10:04:51 AM)

Thankyou everyone for your comments. That 12th April turn was a real low for me, and marked the end of any attempt by me to defend Hawaii, at least until (if) the main KB is spotted elsewhere.

Janh.
Thankyou for your comments. I certainly hope to be able to hold Pearl Harbour, the CD guns there should be enough to destroy any invasion fleet approaching. Lahaina will be a tougher fight, but there are 32 155mms CD guns, plus lots of engineers and forts are nearly at level 5.
I hope that this game doesnt go into 1946, I think that the Japanese economy will collapse before then.

Topeverest.
You were right earlier on regarding the bombing of Kona. I simply didnt expect so many engineers to be present there, and for FatR to risk flying LRCAP and even the Soryu on LRCAP at night. A carrier battle that day would have been a massacre.

Bigred.
You can fly US Army planes from carriers? I never knew that. Presumably the planes need to be loaded in port as an air transport TF and can then fly off later. That would certainly be something to think about.

John 3rd.
Agree about the fuel problems that Japan is or soon must be suffering, but I dont think the difference is as great as you make out. Scenario 1 gives Japan 3,075,670 supply and 4,491,283 fuel whereas in scenario 70, Japan starts with 2,711,045 supply and 4,179,533 fuel. Certainly a significant penalty/difference. We can agree to differ on the Zero results.
The Yamato is indeed out there, PT swatting at Lahaina this turn!

Japanese logistics.
From my game as Japan, in mid April, I had lost around 700,000 fuel compared to game start and had increased the supply by around 600,000. The supply situation then significantly improved until September 1942 but fuel stayed around constant. In this game, I think that Japan massively increased production in the early stages, particularly that of Oscars and Sallies, has an increased industrial demand in this mod, has used his fleet far more than I did, and has lost a lot more transports. If I was to hazard a guess, then I would estimate Japans total fuel to be around 2,500,000 and supply at around 2,750,000.

There is also the ongoing mystery of the number of ships at Singapore. Recon reports 294 xAKs still at Singapore, either an extremely elaborate ruse to get me to fight in Hawaii, shipping for the Indian mission, a serious misuse of Japans merchant marine, or incorrect recon by the Dutch planes.

Hawaii.
Sallys port attacked Pearl Harbour sinking a seriously damaged submarine which had been repairing there and also hitting the Arizona and Nevada. Worryingly, the flak at Pearl Harbour did almost no damage to the Sallies. On the 14th, the Yamato moved towards Lahaina and battled against a number of PT boats. In a large number of night battles, 13 PT boats were sunk but they did manage to torpedo a large Japanese minelayer and an APD. The gloopy sound suggests that at least one of them sunk. Japanese troops land on the empty Molokai and three more Japanese units move towards Hilo. Submarines operating in the Philippines spy a transport fleet, presumably more troops for Hawaii.

Australia.
Nells attacked Townsville harbour and sink the AM Townsville there. How ironic! Australian troops are moving closer to the northern Australian bases of Coen and Portland Roads, there should be small airfields at both bases by early May. I am seriously considering an invasion of Horn Island in mid to late May.

China.
The two corps in the north of the country are retreated and then retreated again by Japanese tanks, the pursue command allowing them to perform a river crossing without a shock attack.
All Chinese troops are to be retreated to Sian, and I am moving a large number of units from Ichang towards Nanyang as a diversion, I simply cannot allow Sian to fall.
With a large part of the Japanese army up north, I am preparing for an offensive on Hong Kong, which recon reports

India.
Fairly quiet. A Hurricane squadron shoots down 5 Marys in Burma while ambushing a regular Japanese raid. Sigint reports the Japanese 16th Division to be in Singapore, but I have no further clues on its preparations.

House rules.
Due to the improved Zeroes, FatR will not be operating the later versions of the Zero until the time that they arrive in stock. This means that the A6M5 which appears in October 1942 in this mod will not be used until mid 1943 and the A6M5 will be postponed from August 1943 until mid 1945. This seems a sensible compromise.



John 3rd -> RE: 13th and 14th April 1942 (9/10/2010 2:23:08 PM)

Yubari--I have to remember that you are also working with the Mark One version of the Scenario. I am currently playing the most recent. The supply and fuel situation is worse in that one then in the version you are currently playing.

Since we're only in late-Dec 1941 I have not seen a lot difference with my Zeros as compared to Stock, however, it is still early. It must also be noted that I am not concentrating EVERYTHING in a wild attempt to gain Hawaii either! Pretty crazy...

In a Mod question, what did you did with those additional Naval assets and ground units that were at sea in the Coral Sea and at Pago Pago when the game started? Did they make any additional impact on the start within those regions?

Thanks.



topeverest -> RE: 13th and 14th April 1942 (9/11/2010 1:15:21 AM)

Yubari,

April is always a tough allied month. The side is showing signs of definitive strength, but the enemy is still quite hard to turn back.

Think asymmetric warfare in Hawaii. If you feel you cant evict him quickly with your existing assets and missions, then think about new ways to use your existing assets and what new mix of assets might be better doing what missions. I do hope you are not evacuating, because he couldnt force the island if he tried unless you stripped it, which you said you have not. So if it is a long siege and attritional fight, how do you go and win that?

IMHO, Hawaii is an excellent place to fight the empire.



witpqs -> RE: 13th and 14th April 1942 (9/11/2010 1:39:20 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: yubari

Bigred.
You can fly US Army planes from carriers? I never knew that. Presumably the planes need to be loaded in port as an air transport TF and can then fly off later. That would certainly be something to think about.


Dock the TF with the carrier (disbanded might work - dunno). Go to the plane group and select transfer to ship. Only single-engine planes are eligible. Stacking restrictions on the carrier do apply, so use with care!

The non-carrier capable groups that you load this way can 'fly-off' by using transfer to base when at sea.



yubari -> 15th April 1942 (9/11/2010 11:18:28 PM)

Thankyou for the PMs bigred, some good advice there.

John3rd. I dont think that I received any extra shipping around Pago Pago in this version of the mod, I dont think there were any troops loaded on transports anyway.

Topeverest, you are exactly right about April. However, I don`t feel that I am any stronger than I was at the start of the game, aside from the arrival of the carriers! Certainly my aircraft pools of most of my planes are running from somewhat limited (Hurricanes) to critically short (almost every bomber unit) to utterly exhausted (almost every US fighter plane).
I am certainly not withdrawing combat troops from Hawaii, at the moment I am withdrawing engineers and AA units from Hilo to Pearl Harbour. If FatR is going to try for an attritional bombing campaign, then these will be the most important units. For the moment I am using submarines though these have achieved very little so far, PT boats, night bombings of the Japanese airfield and occasional fighter ambushes to try to shoot down recon planes. Those Emilys will be very expensive to replace.

Thanks witpqs, that should be a reasonably simple operation, it should only require the US fleet to spend one turn around 20 hexes or less from Pearl Harbour. I had been operating cruisers much closer than that during March and early April.

Hawaii.
3 light cruisers bombard Lahaina. Only approaching to within 10000 feet, they do almost no damage but also manage to avoid the fire from the coastal artillery there, it seems likely that this was merely a scouting operation and FatR now knows that I have some serious firepower there.
The night bombers perform very well this night, destroying around 15 planes on the ground, about 8 of these are Sallys. In the morning, there is a large Zero sweep which I will not even try to meet and then Sallys attack the port at Pearl Harbour. Both battleships are hit multiple times but the bombs mostly bounce, occasionally destroying AA guns or 5 inch guns. The Japanese take the empty Molokai, there are two base forces and a small naval guard unit.

SS Grampus hits a mine at Kwajalein but does turn up some interesting recon information, apparently 3 battleships are present. At the moment she is in little danger of sinking.

China.
Very heavy fighting over Changsha as an Oscar squadron sweeps, and is then followed by two Sonia squadrons and an unescorted squadron of Anns. A final Oscar squadron finishes off the day. Total losses are 24 P-40Es, 5 H81s, 17 Oscars and 18 Sonias. I want to try to show that I am not short of fighters but in reality the cupboard is bare and the AVG might have seen their last fighting of the war. As usual, I think that it is far easier to kill Oscar pilots over your own bases than over Japanese.

India.
Very little is happening but gradually, oh so very gradually, British aerial power is increasing. A Beaufort squadron is to arrive at Karachi tomorrow and two new Hurricane squadrons arrive in the next two weeks. From the start of June I will be getting 64 Hurricanes a month, and these are the only planes that are able to go 1 to 1 against the Oscars.

Australia.
A supply convoy is to arrive at Port Hedland next turn. I will then be able to fly Catalinas from there who should be able to spot any cunning approach by the KB into the Indian Ocean. I have submarines covering the Straits of Malacca, the strait between Sumatra and Java, and quite a few of the hexes south of Java.

Strategic.
Heavy losses for the Japanese, 59 planes today alone compared to 29 for the allies. I estimate that the Japanese are producing around 120 Sallies, 150 Oscars and at least 120 Zeroes a month to replace the losses, and that has got to be eating supply and heavy industry.



yubari -> 16th to 18th April 1942 (9/14/2010 2:57:59 PM)

Hawaii.
Japan is now regularly launching sweeps of over 100 Zeroes over Pearl Harbour and it is pointless to even try to interfere with these, my fighters are eaten alive by sweeping Zeroes. There are also Sallies regularly launching attacks on the airfield at Pearl Harbour and the flak is astoundingly ineffective. Often they fail to even shoot down 1 Sally. Being completely unable to even compete in Hawaii I am now withdrawing all of my planes, holding Palmyra gives them a long and somewhat perilous route to Australia.
The mini KB remains stationed just off the main island of Hawaii, and there has been no further sighting of big brother KB, unsighted for two weeks, it could be pretty much anywhere in the Pacific.

South Pacific.
More engineers and base forces are being brought into Noumea, and I shall probably move 32nd Division, which arrives on the West Coast in three days time, there as well. This should give me about 600AV behind strong forts and good terrain.
The next targets will be the currently empty Efate and Luganville.

China.
The main Japanese army is now 2 hexes along the northern mountain road towards. I want FatR to move it another couple of hexes before I reveal my attack towards Hong Kong, but I am very confident of being able to stop this attack. At Sian I should have around 9000AV and Japan has a river crossing to make. I also have large armies at Ichang and Changsha.

India.
Fortification work is ongoing at Vizgapatnam. That base is now at level 3, and all of the surrounding bases have troops present and fortifications being built in case of any paratroopers being used.

Aleutians.
Cold Bay and Umnak Island both reached level 4 fortifications and so should be safe against all but a full on Japanese invasion. I dont want to move any troops further on along the Island chain yet.

Logistics.
I remain confused by this. In addition to the hundreds of ships regularly reported at Singapore, there are now over 100 ships reported at Kwajalein. Of course the intelligence could be wildly incorrect, but in my game as Japan I have to use a significant part of the Japanese merchant marine to transport resources, fuel and oil. I dont think that Japan gets any extra merchant ships in this mod so why are there apparently hundreds of spare transports?

Real Life.
I had some problems with the computer over the weekend and they turned out to be caused by a broken fan causing the CPU to overheat. I am now running the computer with a large fan blowing cold air in.



witpqs -> RE: 16th to 18th April 1942 (9/14/2010 9:46:51 PM)

One tactic used in Europe was for fighters to try and lure in enemy fighters low over their own base, where AA could shoot at them. Whatever you put up would probably be a loss, but a few old fighters at 5,000ft CAP. ..

I have not tried it myself so I have no idea if it works.



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