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Q-Ball -> RE: Illinois Yankee in Showa Court (Q-Ball v Canoe) (9/7/2010 3:50:31 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Mynok
Why Chittagong? Why not south India? Surely all his Burma refugees are in eastern India, while south India looks ripe for the picking.
Back from long weekend out, and thinking strategy:
This is a good question. And in fact, speaks to the "what next" after Ceylon.
First, what do I accomplish with JUST Ceylon? In the short-term, I destroy several allied units (or at least the combat capability of those units, assuming Dan lifts out cadres. I have a major base athwart the supply line between India and Australia. I can't really use the shipyard, though, as long as the Allies occupy Madras.
In the longer-term, Ceylon is impossible to defend. The best I can do it use it to attrite the Allies Air through 1942, then maybe it's a speedbump after that. But committing significant forces there would be a mistake, because it could just be bypassed.
So, a landing on India is a must-do follow-on. But where?
I have troops prepped for Diamond Harbor and Chittagong, and other troops prepped for Calcutta, but nothing else. I have 6 divisions on Ceylon, however, that will be free to prep for whatever, once I have that operation complete. So, here is the plan:
1. Load up 3-4 divisions that are prepped for NE India and land them there, at Chittagong and Diamond Harbor. I will do that as soon as the Ceylon empties return to Singapore. I estimate a landing approx. April 15.
2. By April 15th, I should have Ceylon cleared; divert all the transports I just used to Ceylon, and prep those units for targets around BOMBAY. Yes, BOMBAY. I need to research the right landing points, but if I am invading NE India, I expect them to be lightly defended.
3. How will the Allies react? Either:
A) The NE India landing will mean the Allied troops pile into NE India.
B) Once I land at Bombay, they will probably pile OUT of NE India.
I still, in the end, don't think I have enough to clear all of India; it's a daunting task in AE, and against a competent opponent, I think pretty much impossible. But we will see how far we push it.
Combat Report, March 12, 1942:
CEYLON: 1 Regt and a Tank Regt unloaded at a lightly defended Koggla; they should take the base tommorow. The troops there are already moving elsewhere. Mostly I am taking this, so the units at Trincomalee and Colombo don't retreat to Koggla, but surrender instead.
A Tank Regt reached Domulla, and should clear it tommorow. 2 more Regts are headed for Jaffna, and will unload shortly, giving me probably enough to push over Trincomalee. At this point, I can probably attack Colombo, as Dan will start pulling fragments, if he hasn't already.
The 18th UK Division will take forever to rebuild anyway.
Air Attacks: The RAF attacked Jaffna again; this time there were fewer planes, since we shot down a bunch the other day. 20 RAF planes did not return, mostly Blenheims. The damage to Jaffna was minimal; it's 28% to Level 2. I lost 2 Zeros to OPS losses.
The Fleet: I have a TF of BBs that is replenishing magazines at Port Blair. Part of KB is going to risk a refuel-torpedo restock at Jaffna, where I have AOs and AKEs docked.
Still no sign of the Allied Fleet; I have no idea where anyone is. Dan might be moving USN CVs to this part of the world now, or he might be planning a counter-operation elsewhere.
Defending the Perimeter: So, what can Dan do while I am engaged at Ceylon?
First, he has to prep units prior to landing, so it would be at least May 1 before I would see a diversionary landing elsewhere IMO.
Where would he go? The candidates:
1. KURILES: I feel OK here; I am building Shikuka and Para Jima. I don't have much in the way of ground troops, but a landing here triggers a pile of new units in the Home Islands. If Dan lands here, I would consider it an opportunity.
2. MARSHALLS: I don't have the troops to really defend all of the Marshalls, just a handful of Nav Gd. That will have to do, that and the Betty base at Kwaj; I am counting on NETTY/ZERO to keep the Allies honest.
3. SOLOMONS: We can't really stop an Allied landing here. I have Air HQ at Port Moresby and soon at Rabaul, so New Guinea is relatively safe via Air Fleets, but the lower Solomons are pretty much defenseless on the ground.
I do have a strong Fleet at Rabaul, centered around the 2 NAGATOS, and a collection of cruisers. At this point, the Allies don't have an answer for the NAGATOS, so I would initially rely on surface forces here to repel the Allies.
4. DEI: I have pretty good coverage via air in this area, and alot of troops flowing through Singapore.
In the long-run, I consider SUMATRA to be the #1 danger zone. A landing there would close the Malacca Strait and be a total disaster, stranding all my troops in India. For this reason, Sumatra will receive Priority #1 in terms of defenses. It also happens to be where all the OIL is anyway.
Defensive Resources: I hate thinking defensively right now, but I have to watch my rear and have a plan. What is back there in case I run into trouble?
4th FLEET at RABAUL: 2 BBs, 6 CAs, 4 CLs, and supporting DDs.
22nd and 23rd Air Flotillas: 4 x Betty Units (Truk and Rabaul), plus 2 x Zero and 2 x Oscar (which can escort Betties). I also have some IJA Bombers assets.
IJA RESERVES: My ground reserves outside of the SRA consist of 2 x Regts, 1 Tank Regt, and about 2-3 Nav Gd units. Pretty thin, in other words. They are all at Truk, with sufficient transport to lift them to trouble.
Once I am established on Ceylon, I will have freedom of action with the rest of the fleet. Right now I am tethered to protecting transports, but once Jaffna supports torp-carrying Betties, I can breath more easily.
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