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YankeeAirRat -> RE: If Pearl Harbour.....wasn't (10/17/2010 7:10:03 AM)
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First the USN was keeping the fleet carriers out to sea both on the Pacific Coast and the Atlantic Coast. If the rumors are to be believed portions of the Atlantic fleet were sortied to screen convoys on the American side of the line from German Raiders. Plus the aggressive nature of the push against the German fleet, tween the U-boats attacking a couple of the destroyers (Reuben James, Keanry, and the Niblack) and the open secret that the US was supplying most of European defense needs. Though Hitler had forbidden his U-boats from attacking any USN ships, there again were rumors that a couple of times some of the pre-war carriers ran across some of the German U-boats during their neutrality patrols tween Norfolk and the Caribbean bases, and their escorts attacked them, or their aircraft forced those U-boats under the water.
The whole idea of pushing the Pacific Fleet itself to Hawaii was as close as the fleet could get without putting undo risk to it, let alone not violate some of the current arms control treaties and tact understandings the US and Japan had at the time. Remember we couldn't upgrade Agna Harbor and Guam defense iaw the Washington Naval Treaty. The same was true of the Cavitie Naval facilities. The most we could do was replace outdated defenses or cosmetic upgrades (like replacing older buildings with newer ones). In turn the most that we did was basically let those bases atrophy until the war started in Europe. At which there was a slow review of what we could and needed to do to turn those bases into forward operating bases. From what I have read in some trade journals, is that most of senior leadership had accepted that Guam was going to be a loss and that the fight was going to happen in the Philippines. Take a look at this book, this ship along with three other sail schooner were going to spy on the Japanese fleet. There was a belief that the Japanese were going to make a move against someone in the near time. With the belief they were going to push towards the DEI fields, along with the mineral fields in British control lands. This was cause their four year old war in China hadn't being going the way they were use to. Also since most of the European nations were up against the ropes cause of the Germans, the Japanese didn't expect that much of a fight.
I would also suggest that some of us have gotten tunnel visioned with the reasons behind PH. Just as the UK and US were starting to get chummy in 1940. There was a nationalist movement starting to make its rise in India and while Mohandas Gandhi believed in non-violent support, some of the others in Indian National Congress were pushing for a strong statement against the British. The British earlier in the year had lost the war for the Balkans and retreated to Egypt. While doing that they had also fought the major battle around Tobruk, gone into Ethiopia to push out the Italians, and though holding their own with the war at sea in the Mediterranean just on a whole the theater wasn't looking good for them. Rommel had switched from France to become the general officer supporting the Italians and German army in the Desert. Charles Lindbergh testified in front of Congress in February of that year about neutrality with Germany, then in April the America First Committee had chosen Lindbergh to be their public face. May 24, the German battleship Bismark was able to sink the HMS Hood. The British and Free French Forces invade Syria to prevent the Vichy forces stationed there to prevent the Vichy and Germans from invading British Trans-Jordan (now Israel and Jordan), the fear was that the German forces would go out of Greece into Syria and push from through Jordan into Saudi/Iraqi/and Iranian oil fields. Just earlier in 1941 both Iran and Iraq had shown possibilities to fall with in the German sphere of influence.
Basically if you look at it from the Japanese point of view, they could get their gains of economic needs for their wartime economy. Crush the Europeans in their colonies. Sue for a treaty on their terms and since the Europeans were basically stretched to the breaking point with their forces. So a quickie war in the Pacific was what the Japanese looked for. As to the US, the Japanese knew that any push against the Europeans would lead to the US getting involved. In turn the PH raid (which no one on the US/European side believe the Japanese were capable of) was an attempt to bloody our nose, get their gains. Then basically tell the US that nothing more then what we had of US land, IE Guam and the PI which protected their trade routes from DEI to the home islands, and we will become your trading partner again. Just look at the American population at the time in 1941 as well, although there was a growing feeling that we needed to get into the war. Most of the troops were still training with mock-ups, the AFC was making big news (that was until Lindbergh's Des Moines speech). Heck, even the German-American Bund was pushing for neutrality and let the Germans do their thing. Along with an attempt at a secessionist movement in the Western US. So how could the Japanese not think that the US wouldn't go to war?
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