Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (Full Version)

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EastWarHistorian -> Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/16/2011 6:03:47 PM)

I'm currently reading "Absolute War: Soviet Russia in the Second World War", 2007, by Chris Bellamy, and in Chapter 5, "Who Planned to Attack Whom, and How?" he discusses the evidence he and others have found pointing to a plan for an early Soviet attack on German forces. Is anyone working on such a scenario? It could be a very interesting "what if" exercise.

Here's the quote from page 131 of "Absolute War" that prompted this post:

"The final war game plan, produced by Zhukov, who had taken over from Meretskov as Chief of Staff on May 1941, was a development of the three earlier plans, but there was one key difference. The 11 march plan had remained defensive, overestimating the German threat but deploying 171 divisions to meet a German attack, once again assumed to come from the south-west with the prime objective of seizing Ukraine. However, the 15 May plan emphatically did involve a Soviet pre-emptive strike.

The plan was a fifteen-page document in Vasilevskiey's handwriting, addressed to Stalin. On the top right-hand corner it bore the caveats 'Top Secret. Very Urgent. Exclusively Personal. The only copy.' Against the 100 German divisions believed to be in the former territory of Poland, now known as the General Government, west of the Bug, Zhukov planned to launch 152. This was a fragile superiority in view of Soviet deficiencies in training and command and incomplete re-equipment. The plan...aimed to split the Germans from their southern allies and encircle the main group of forces in the Lublin area.

By Day 30 the Red Army should reach the 'first strategic objective', the curved line running roughly north-east to south-west through Ostrolenka, the River Narew, Lowicz, Lodz, and Opole (Oppel'n). Then the second phase would begin: an attack from the Katowice area northwards to cut off any remaing German forces and to occupy all of the territory of the former state of Poland, and German East Prussia - the 'subsequent strategic objective'."



Mehring -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/16/2011 6:20:06 PM)

I don't think it would make a very interesting scenario. Russia would be creamed.

If you were to allow for the Left Opposition to have beaten the Stalin faction and both Trotsky and Tukhachevsky (and the other no less gifted communist soldiers) to have survived, then you would have a more historically feasible scenario. However, it would be taking place in the early 1930's as the Soviet Union militarily supported the united front of communists and socialists against the establishment backed fascist movement. Not so many tasty tanks, but a fascinating 'what if'.



typhoon -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/16/2011 6:27:09 PM)

Whilst I agree the Soviets would be creamed would be a great addition. Never modded anything in my life so got no idea how to go about it but this game might just inspire me enough to try and learn. War plans along the lines of Ageods First World War game would be great. Maybe even as an expansion somewhere down the line all be it a long way down that line for the games developers who continue to outdo themselves with the excellent support we are already getting



Klydon -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/16/2011 10:36:37 PM)

The huge difference in a Russian attack (and subsequent German counter attack) is the Germans would not get a surprise turn on the Russians, which would be a monster change in terms of game conditions. 



Aurelian -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/16/2011 10:54:49 PM)

IIRC, you can't start earlier than June 22 anyway. And the only way around the surprise rules are to start later.

http://www.ess.uwe.ac.uk/genocide/reviewsw63.htm of Stumbling Colossus:

In this excellent institutional study of the Red Army in 1941, David Glantz discusses Soviet lack of preparation for Operation Barbarossa, and explains how the Soviets almost lost the Second World War that year. Glantz also argues that, because of Soviet military weakness in 1941, accusing Stalin of planning a preemptive strike on Nazi Germany that year is untenable.



Redmarkus5 -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/16/2011 11:03:35 PM)

I have read Absolute War (excellent book) and what I took away from it was that the Soviets saw a preemptive strike OR an immediate counter-offensive into Poland as their best defense. In other words, they were planning only to attack Germany if threatened with attack themselves. As Stalin could not be convinced that intelligence indicating a likely Axis invasion was accurate, the Soviets did not finalize their preparations and the purging of their officer corps continued.

So, the main what-ifs would need to be:

1. Stalin believes the intelligence.
2. The purges are halted and the command structure is addressed.
3. The Axis builds up for an offensive.
4. The Soviets attack on June 22, just as the Axis offensive is about to start.



Rosseau -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/16/2011 11:40:02 PM)

I did something along these lines. But the buff required to give the Soviets a shot is completely ahistorical. As such, few would enjoy playing such a fantasy scenario.



paullus99 -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 2:27:57 AM)

An attack by the Red Army would be disasterous (for the Red Army). They had neither the experience nor the logistical support to pull off what Zhukov proposed. If anything, it would probably end the war - for the Russians, since the cream of their military would be pocketed and destroyed inside Poland.



Shellshock -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 2:50:56 AM)

At least one Russian military historian seems to buy the idea. An attack planned for June 12, 1941. Sounds like another springtime for Hitler.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin%27s_Missed_Chance

"Meltyukhov suggests that the assault on Germany was initially planned to take place on June 12, 1941, but was postponed because the Soviet leadership feared an Anglo-German reconciliation against the Soviet Union after the flight of Rudolf Hess on May 12, 1941."



Skanvak -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 8:58:11 AM)

Why not have the Stalin nightmare scenario? Stalin feared that the English will let Germany fight him in. In this case The Western Allied does not react to invasion of Poland, Stalin might have attack first if German did not.

The other alternative is a 44 strike on an unprepared German army while the Western Allied try to invade Europe. In this case, no Lend Lease to Russia an no partisan.

But the "no purge" mean a no Stalin. You should understand that the aim of the purge was to secure Stalin position in power in Russia.



Redmarkus5 -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 1:19:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

An attack by the Red Army would be disasterous (for the Red Army). They had neither the experience nor the logistical support to pull off what Zhukov proposed. If anything, it would probably end the war - for the Russians, since the cream of their military would be pocketed and destroyed inside Poland.


No question you are correct - it would have been a disaster. But that doesn't mean it could not have happened.

The level of misjudgment needed on the Soviet side would not have been a great deal more than the misjudgment actually made by the Axis. What-if the Soviets had not had the purges and had been more successful vs. the Finns? They might have felt more confident, even if they would have been wrong to do so.

I think it's a valid 'what-if' idea, even if the result is the defeat of the Soviet Union. It offers one possible scenario that could have led to that outcome.



paullus99 -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 2:49:23 PM)

Absolutely - a lot would depend on whether or not the Russians felt the Germans were expecting an attack (based on information that an invasion on June 22nd was going to happen - why not preempt?).

Of course, it would be impossible for the Germans to miss the kind of offensive build-up that would be necessary for the Red Army to move forward in 1941. They would have plenty of time to build defenses in depth & be ready.

I would recommend checking out "Third Reich Victorious - Alternate Decisions of WWII" by Peter Tsouras, it actually have a scenario exactly like the one being discussed.



Jakerson -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 2:51:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

An attack by the Red Army would be disasterous (for the Red Army). They had neither the experience nor the logistical support to pull off what Zhukov proposed. If anything, it would probably end the war - for the Russians, since the cream of their military would be pocketed and destroyed inside Poland.



Who cares is Soviet get creamed or not as long as it takes away German suprice attack this means that Soviet enter war with fully intact air force instead of 5000 planes destroyed first days of war. Also Soviet entering war fully mobilized instead of ill prepared.



Josh -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 3:04:20 PM)

I don't think there are many scenarios like that around, not any that I can remember anyways... So yes, it would be (IMHO) a welcome new and fresh scenario. (probably in a late expansion).



paullus99 -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 4:18:55 PM)

Jakerson - whether those planes are destroyed on the ground (and if the Germans knew the Russians were coming, don't you think they'd want to get in a first hit on the airfields anyway) or in the air - which they probably would be anyway (throwing inexperienced pilots & obsolete planes against the cream of the Luftwaffe) , it would be little help to the troops on the ground.

Even a fully mobilized Red Army, and in this scenario one that is completely frontally deployed along the border, wouldn't be a match for the German Heer at this point in the war. The Germans could let them stomp forward, perhaps penetrate deep, then hit their flanks & chop them up (both on land & the air).

Once the fronts were shattered, the German armored groups would press into the Soviet Union against the few reserves that may be left & Stalin wouldn't be able to play the "repel the Hitlerite invaders" card, since he attacked first.



Mehring -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 4:24:23 PM)

quote:

Who cares is Soviet get creamed or not as long as it takes away German suprice attack this means that Soviet enter war with fully intact air force instead of 5000 planes destroyed first days of war. Also Soviet entering war fully mobilized instead of ill prepared.


I'm not really sure you've thought throught the implications here.

The Russian army was incapable of delivering a coherent attack in Finland, let alone along the entire length of the Polish front. It was ill prepared for anything and attacking would only exacerbate this, not solve it. For one, attacking would have taxed the Russian command and logistics structure more than defence, secondly their forces would have been caught in the open without entrenchments.

However many planes the Russians had "ready," ie, not languishing in repair shops waiting for non-existant spare parts, they would have been destroyed the same as they were historically. It was not a decisive issue.

What would have been absolutely decisive is the political impact of fighting a major aggressive war and getting hammered. Historically, Stalin managed to get a large majority of the Russian population to bury their smoldering anger and discontent and get them behind the war effort by promoting it as defensive patriotism. It was on this basis that the Russian people made such extraordinary sacrifices. Do you really think they would have done the same in an aggressive war that went right, let alone one that went hopelessly wrong?

No. "That's another fine mess you've got us into, Great Leader."

At the very least, Russians would not have fought and worked with such determination and self-sacrifice. At most, national cohesion would have been so impaired as to make command and orgainisation impossible. If there was no opposition to overthrow Stalin's regime, that would only make a power vaccum waiting to be filled by the nazis.

Though he was no great theoretician he was shrewd enough to realise this was a likely scenario. Is this not a far more cogent explanation for no such attack never taking place?



RickyB -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/17/2011 5:16:59 PM)

For the old War in Russia game, I came up with a 1942 scenario of the Soviets attacking the Germans, with a fairly complete back story.  The Germans concentrated on fighting the British empire, seizing all of North Africa and the oilfields in the Mideast - the game could be edited to allow new production sites so these were added to the Germans while their forces in the east were weak.  The Soviets with poor experience were able to mobilize and attack before the Germans could pull back forces to defend. Then the Germans slowly build strength and strike back, hopefully - a reverse situation of history.

I have been thinking that would be a good scenario here, but would require alterations in the production, or at least starting equipment levels which I gather may not be possible to make it work, but I plan on researching the idea further.  See the Matrix War in Russia forum, I think there are still a lot of comments about it in there.

Rick



Rosseau -> RE: Soviet Early Attack Scenario? (2/18/2011 12:24:40 AM)

Yes, a 1942 scenario sounds a lot more logical. I did a quickie scenario using Road to Minsk, and the Soviet AI attacked quite well. I played it to a stalemate as the Axis. I'd be happy (and a bit embarrassed) to post it, but you would need all the "wr" generic data files I changed.

I have a feeling we may be seeing some new scenarios from the pros soon, though.



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