RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (Full Version)

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Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/15/2011 5:26:53 AM)

And, back to the historical rate of advance.

[image]local://upfiles/37041/40C29878B351401D9BF1C25C74306366.jpg[/image]

Hmm, ahead in AGN & AGC. Behind in AGS, but not all that bad, compared to historical anyways,






Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/15/2011 7:26:08 PM)

New day and no turn. It is unusual for Oleg to hold a turn this long. Maybe he does sleep, afterall.[:)]

I'm getting better at punching holes to move through. This one was 2 wide south of Smlensk. Getting enough infantry to the point of attack is where it's at. And I didn't have enough to drive 2 openings, I tried though and failed. That's war. I will be happy with what I have gained, and shrug off the areas of operational failure.

The enemy zoc's limited how far the Panzers could drive, but having 2 panzer armies staring at the road to Moscow should have some impact on loosening up defenses elsewhere.

And I am staring at Leningrad. His choice as to what he defends heavily.

I hope to acheive the '41 line in the South, as well.

Can't wait to see what he does.[:)]












Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 2:06:40 AM)

I followed Jomni's link to the Random Wargame Name Generator, and it came up with "Ace of the Motherland" for me.[:'(] I think that might be more appropriate for my opponent than me, but I will take it.[:D]

I used to play tennis competitively, so it's on the right track, oddly enough.

Cool site Jomni, thanks.

In other news, I see Oleg is updating. I hope that means a turn is on the way.[:)]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:05:19 AM)

Turn 14

OOB:

Holding steady here.


[image]local://upfiles/37041/C4498E1D5301499AA6DDFFC42345711B.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:06:17 AM)

Turn 14

Losses:

Mine remain low. Soviets havne't impacted this by launching counter-attacks very much, at all. And although I've been grinding the last few turns in AGN, since Oleg handed me the Luga line, I've protected the infantry elsewhere.

I've got a pretty big Army, and am padded somewhat for the 1 million or so blizzard losses that I anticipate. It won't be fun, but I won't be surprised by it, at least.

Soviets climb over 2 million. I've captured over half that total. I guess I created a few more pockets than I give myself credit for. It's not great, but I don't feel devastated by the low numbers. I try to remain positive, here. haha.



[image]local://upfiles/37041/11F87F3AEB9C499782DBAC35426B038F.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:07:27 AM)

Turn 14

Destroyed Units:

186 total now. Low. Oleg has been hard to pocket, and I enhance my own difficulties with bad decisions while learning to play.



[image]local://upfiles/37041/0BEDA71B271C4C63A1A55E8E0B91F0A4.jpg[/image]



Sabre21 -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:20:20 AM)

That breakout in the center looks to be the decisive moment on this front. Get your air recon out enmasse and check to see where he may be forming another line at. I would widen that breach and secure the rail line thru there to Vyzama, air refuel your panzers at the start of the turn with every bomber and transport available and get them to 125% and push east hard. You may very well get lucky and take Moscow. If for anything to knock out the manpower factors. You do want a wide axis of advance if you plan on holding this though..I'm talking 15 to 20 hexes wide otherwise come blizzard he may pinch it off.



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:36:46 AM)

Turn 14:

Counterattacks:

2 this turn.

He drives the 256th ID back with moderate losses (1200). TOE is down to 74%, Fortunately, it was set on refit after last turns attacks, so it could have been in a worse state. It's weakish now, 5 = 16 so will be tucked under another unit, I can't spare to move it out of the line completely at this point.

The counter-attack on 8th and 5th Romanian Cav fails, This highlights the improvement in my Romanians, I believe. They have been in training in their slow advance. And morale climbs every so slowly. And it pays off a bit here. Their TOE's remain at 80% or so after the attack.








[image]local://upfiles/37041/1DAD5BF0503A4ACF94A75EB65A217122.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:39:44 AM)

Turn 14

AGN (pre-movement, post some recon)

Soviets have fallen back to the Volkhov River down to Novgorod. A screen remains on the west bank of the river.

At Schisselburgh, the fortress remains size 1. 3 units are there, detecting at level 10 3=17. He remains in force in front of Leningrad otherwise. The low fortress levels make the fall inevitable, I believe. It's just what turn it will fall.

The forces in the area will be reduced manually, unless I score a surprising breakthrough and manage to isolate Leningrad, linking with the Finns.

I doubt that will happen, as I don't have extra forces in the area to try to head so far east, as I move northeast to the Leningrad metro area.

He has pushed back from VL north slightly, as well. I will seize the land as a convenient widening of my buffer.



[image]local://upfiles/37041/6D8296A029A0469A9916D39494456C96.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:40:48 AM)

OK, Sabre, will give it a shot. Infantry will be poured in. Bulk of both AGC infantry armies are relatively close by.

Continuing to fly recon.

FBD is at Smolensk now.

This is CNN type AAR, real-time, haha.



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:50:09 AM)

Turn 14

AGC (pre-movement, post light recon)

Surprisingly, he has widened the breakthrough for me. His units now run on a line from just east of VL, southeast towards landbridge, then due east. He's not dug in, anywhere. MP's are good, and no units are cut off.

His forces then run south from Vyazma vicinity to Bryansk.

What am I missing here? I thought he might pile on the shoulders and try to limit the widening? I want the land for sure, and he given me tons for free. I am continuing recon for sure. None of my units are cut off. He should have some mobile units to throw into the breach, shouldn't he? I don't think I've killed all of SW Front mobile units. Maybe I did...

Where's all his cav? He's still got over 4.6 million men, where are they at exactly?

I have saved the Panzers TOE-wise. It might be time to bulldoze here in AGC, as well. No fortification levels here...

Edit: Oops, notice 1 size 1 fortification opposite my panzers.



[image]local://upfiles/37041/279A711004FC496A9C952781B7F56484.jpg[/image]



Klydon -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:56:43 AM)

Don't forget as time goes along that those big vicious SW front tank divisions get morphed into whimpy tank brigades. With it being mid September, this has been going on for a bit. He still may have some mobile stuff around someplace, but a fair amount of it is now in brigade form.

I don't get the pull back either to a point. I would have thought he would have left some stay behind units just to delay the units back there as much as possible.



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 3:57:10 AM)

Turn 14

AGC & AGS wide view (post light recon)

He has yielded me much territory, just as I need a buffer the most. I will grab it all, while piling into the breach to Moscow.

This surprises me greatly. I know the Panzers in the breakthrough are intimidating, but he's on the downslope into mud, and the Soviets time for fun. He's limiting pockets, I suppose. I just thought he'd be piled up heavy in front, like TD, not falling back. I was wrong.

XXXX Panzer Corps rolls on for AGC.



[image]local://upfiles/37041/8998D48569954E0BAD1EF5A19D8D9A8F.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 4:03:20 AM)

OK, thanks Klydon.

I've been attacking cavalry and tank brigads as I see them, mp's allowing. I can't believe I've killed them all though. I hit a few tank brigades and cav divisions last turn, and was happy to be encountering them.

I remain worried he's got a nice stock of mobile forces for the blizzard.

Recon continues.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 4:16:37 AM)

The more I see how Oleg defends, the more I understand why Emir kicked his a**, sorry [:)] And of course the less I believe his "German supermen" thing.

You're doing an excellent job, Senno. If you manage to grab both Leningrad & Moscow my hat will be off to you [&o] What the heck, only one of those cities is needed!

Good luck and above all GOOD HUNT! [8D]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 4:33:34 AM)

Thank you TD.

After flying recon until I run out of planes that can fly the distance, I only see one level 2 fortress near Moscow. And that's triple stacked. They aren't spread out digging in. I am very surprised at that.

And I just can't find many fortifications.

I know recon is limited, but there should be some fortification levels. He just didn't dig in, I think.



[image]local://upfiles/37041/C81D2774FBF640DC8B1465C516FAB2C9.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 4:34:17 AM)

Turn 14

AGC (post-recon, pre-movement):

Results of many, many recon flights.

The recon might be inaccurate, but if they were present I'd see some number if there was a fortification in the hex, wouldn't I?

I have been far, far, far to timid, as others have pointed out. This whole game I have been waiting for a Flavio counter/attacking type defense. I always though, "okay this turn he will spring it", and it just never happened. We see the AAR's, and the testers posts and people constantly say they can indeed counter-attack. And TD's excellent example of a crushing Soviet defense in his first AAR. And that was TD's first game.

I will be gunning for Moscow before mud. If not, before blizzard. It's gonna be close. And I might not get it just due to time/distance. Should have been much/much more aggressive.

[image]local://upfiles/37041/48219B45791441AF851D433691BBF6F5.jpg[/image]



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 5:06:56 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Senno

[image]local://upfiles/37041/C81D2774FBF640DC8B1465C516FAB2C9.jpg[/image]


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I wish my Soviet planes could recon that much [:)]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 5:31:47 AM)

Turn 14

AGN (mid-turn):

The hex 1 hex south of the backdoor is cleared. As is the hex to the immediate west. The XXXVIII Corps of 18th Army is nearly completing preparations for being the lead units in the Leningrad assault.

Now, if I have a stack of 3, prepped as below, shouldn't that move most things? And if I have 2 similar stacks, and invest the SU's, should they or should they not prevail in the combat?

The units are all placed in the same Corps, with SU's moved into place. That doesn't happen automatically, you have to prod them along. Oleg chose that setting. And I thought I had enough to deal with, without having to handle every SU.

But it takes time to get the SU's where you want, and all units in the same Corps at the point of attack. And that is dependent on AP's as well. These aren't "supermen". I have husbanded my forces. And now, when I need them I can throw them into the breach.

My preparations:

These units are per-combat. I'm not attacking Leningrad this turn. They will be placed on refit this turn to top off, then move in.

In approach, I guess this is how the Soviets have to handle everything. Same for Germans against rough defenses.




[image]local://upfiles/37041/14ABCD1AA2374DAF8A79DB6DB819F0AF.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 5:45:18 AM)

Turn 14

AGN mid-turn:

Combat goes well, but is grinding my units. Units are removed from the point of attack, and fresher rotated in. With the first units moving off the line if needed, or back to the front line towards Novgorod if they are in decent enough shape.

TOE's after the attacks are from 70 to 80% at the highest.

Refit is crucial.


[image]local://upfiles/37041/BA556E5D1EB64EDFA0324616B2DAECA7.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 5:53:37 AM)

Turn 14

AGN (mid-turn)

And German supermen don't dominate the field. Victory, at a price at the backdoor hex:

Had the Soviets been dug in, I lose, or have to prep the Corps that took the hex even further.

[image]local://upfiles/37041/066E5E4C7E6D4F6C880FB10080BD1739.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 5:58:25 AM)

Turn 14

AGN (mid-turn)

Combat results 1 hex to the west of the "backdoor" hex. Heavier enemy, heavier commitment (size 2 fortification):

I see a pretty well tuned combat engine. Had the Soviets been dug in to 3 at least or level 4 fortifications, I'd of had to commit further, and the combat would be in grave doubt. I don't know why they weren't dug in, beyond levels 1 and 2. But if you checkerboard, but don't fill in when the enemy gets close, it's easy to bypass your size 4 fortifications, and hit the lesser fortifications in most cases.

That slows the Germans down considerably, though. And the resources used here opposite Leningrad aren't being used in AGS. Where my advance is slow.

It's still gonna be close, but it's downhill from here into Leningrad, I think and hope.









[image]local://upfiles/37041/1F08D7662BC14067A602478E44F78B09.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 6:19:44 AM)

Thinking about it, the balancing isn't all in the Germans favor in Summer '41.

For example, I can't tell you how many times the Soviets have dropped back off the existing front lines to another line behind a river. I advance, and arrive there over 2 turns or so. The first units that arrive often get there with 5 mp's, and can't launch a deliberate attack, and the unsupported (HQ had to move or is out of range waiting to move) hasty attack fails. All the time. Thus the Soviets get at least 1 turn to dig-in. Then simply fall back another river if they feel threatened. The Soviets can pretty easily trade land for time, especially when there's no Panzers about. I have tried to punish that best I can, but it may not be enough at all.

If the Panzers aren't arround to convert hexes in mass, infantry advance can be excruciatingly slow.

Oleg has been asked for a decent argument and evidence, the response was "that's lame" or whatever. Unless someone breaks it down to at least the extent I have, and shows it for all to see, I don't think there are "supermen".

Your mileage may vary, and I'm no expert. But I stand by my game results.

And of course, mud approaches, and that closes the show on Barbarossa, and the Soviets will begin the transition to "supermen". Gonna see how that goes, should be fun.








Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 6:58:41 AM)

Turn 14

AGN:

After thinking about it, I decide that trying to shift around to get forces onto the backdoor hex is gonna be a giant pain, and move my heavy infantry forces away from Leningrad. I want Leningrad.

Unfortunately they are in supply through the port. But I can't quite get to the backdoor hex.

So, instead I hold my breath, close my eyes and wind up.

And the attack succeeds. Thank goodness Thor arrived, the heavies are committed now. Yes, it was a 2 Corps attack, so I took the hit. But I needed that stack gone now. Or he would have moved it back, and I don't want more forces in the Leningrad area.

The corps are rotated out, and on refit.

AP's are pretty much fully used up in AGN again. AGC will have about 10 or so to move around their SU's. AGC gets the short end, as usual. One of these turns I really need to start in the south, and work up north.

Fourth Panzer is pulled off the line. Their reassignment destination will be decided after next turns recon.

XXXX Panzer heads down to AGS, if he pulls to reinforce Moscow, should be a nice opening for a healthy tank corps.

[image]local://upfiles/37041/ECEFFB0BA8974D8D95EB0155D92BDF75.jpg[/image]



jomni -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 7:14:36 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Senno

I followed Jomni's link to the Random Wargame Name Generator, and it came up with "Ace of the Motherland" for me.[:'(] I think that might be more appropriate for my opponent than me, but I will take it.[:D]

I used to play tennis competitively, so it's on the right track, oddly enough.

Cool site Jomni, thanks.

In other news, I see Oleg is updating. I hope that means a turn is on the way.[:)]


Thanks for the plug. [:D]

Today's Wargame Name is "Paris' [Hilton] Men"



76mm -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 7:52:52 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Senno
I have been far, far, far to timid, as others have pointed out. This whole game I have been waiting for a Flavio counter/attacking type defense. I always though, "okay this turn he will spring it", and it just never happened. We see the AAR's, and the testers posts and people constantly say they can indeed counter-attack. And TD's excellent example of a crushing Soviet defense in his first AAR. And that was TD's first game.


I think you've been playing a great game, particularly for your first game--bravo! But IMO you are correct that you have been too timid, or at least in the initial turns.

As to the constant references to the necessity of, and possibility for, Soviet counterattacks--I just don't agree that many counter-attacks are possible, necessary, or even desirable. I'm in the middle of my first PBEM game, but in my opinion a good, aggressive German opponent will inflict enough casualties to make counterattacks difficult, and will threaten troops concentrating for counterattacks with encirclement enough to make counterattacks unwise. TD has played a couple of great games, but I also think that he has been fortunate in his selection of German opponents., who have been rather conservative.

Just to be clear, I am talking about actual counterattacks, rather than slipping units into gaps to relieve pockets, etc. This is critical for Soviets to do, but this doesn't qualify as counterattacks in my book.



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 8:18:31 AM)

Thank you very much, 76mm.

I appreciate your dropping in.[:)]

I count my opponents counter-attacks as he states that the Soviets cannot conduct them. It seems he can when he feels the need to, at least. So I'm left questioning his argument. Especially as it contradicts the testers and quite a few players directly. As I didn't manage to pocket the SW Front, he had many more capable units than other people are typically left with.

Oleg hasn't made very many counter-attacks, by to your definition. He has generally been very timely with them though. Spoiling a couple plans to pocket completely. The units were driven off the line into refit. If Soviet could do that a bit more often, it can seriously set back the advance, especially if you pick your targets well, which Oleg has.

If my opponent wasn't on the front-edge of the "supermen" debate, I'd probably not even track them in the aar. Unless they smash me up, they aren't that interesting in and of themselves. Just part of the war. Same as inerdictions, I only really take notice if it drains the mp's and/or causes huge casualties.

I think I have bumped into some of the SW Front infantry around Moscow. We will see if he decides to go ahead and launch counter-attacks.

I mean a hasty or deliberate attack against a unit. Not just getting in the way.

The tremendous variety of strategies possible help make this game fun, and replayable. If you are happy with your strategy, by all means.

I think I'd like to play Soviets next, to have some firsthand knowledge, beyond the AI and my halfhearted son.[:)]






Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 8:48:58 AM)

AGC:

Prip Marshes Pocket:

I have located 2 more units in there. They are the last left.

I'm now really unsure how many I caught in the pocket when I dove on Gomel and Kiev on Turn 8. Must have been about 20? I originally thought about 12, thinking he may have gotten most away out of danger. Still, just a drop in the Soviet manpower bucket.

That makes 2 turns on beachhead status, then 5 turns isolated.



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 9:14:05 AM)

Turn 14

AGC:

Fourth Army continues attacking north by northeast. They have pocketed the southern shoulder of the breakthrough. And widened it significantly. Barring any unforeseen catastropies, it is doubtful that the Panzers can be cut off that far back in their drive on Moscow. At least from the southern shoulder. In the southern area of their advance, we have arrived at Bryansk.

The infantry Corps assigned to Second Panzer makes it's way north towards Bryansk and points north, as well. I lack the AP's to flip them to Fourth Army or another command, at present.

I have about 1 Corps worth of Panzers pulled back uncommitted, refueling. Where they are tasked, will depend on what Soviets do. They needed to be pulled back to fuel, as MP's suffered. I continue to air deliver to the max every turn. Fourth Panzer isn't included in this tally.

XXXX Panzer arrives by rail and is committed into the breach.

I tend to rotate panzers, if I can to keep the Soviets guessing. If they are in the lines at all times, I figure it's easy for them to commit all forces. If they have to be wary of a sudden appearance, perhaps they will remain that much more honest in their dispositions. That's my theory anyway. No idea if it's true. And at this point, if I were the Soviet, virtually everything would go to Stalingrad.[;)]







[image]local://upfiles/37041/53EA5632C95D4967A7694D492BF55009.jpg[/image]



Senno -> RE: Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg (3/16/2011 9:24:07 AM)

Turn 14

AGC:

In the breach, Ninth Army marches to catch up to the Panzers, and starts to seal off the northern wall. I'd like to drive this back, but lack the combat power at present to do so. MP's of the Panzers were decent, so rather than wait and refuel, we moved on, gaining about 40% of the distance to Moscow on a decent frontage. Ninth Army had enough mp's to kick most of the ants away, so the Panzers were free to roll off.

I have sealed off the shoulders well enough to prevent being cut off at the original point of breakthrough, I believe.

We have grown a second set of shoulders. Fortunately, infantry divisions are right there, and will be able to widen what amounts to a second breach.

The Soviets aren't fortified, but are thick in the area. I am surprised at the lack of fortified depth.

If I have the combat power, I intend to launch 2 pinchers. 1 towards the Oka, 1 towards the north edge of Moscow. I don't think I have the time to head towards Kalinin. I'd like to, but time, prevents I think.

I have hoarded the panzers until now, and their TOE's remain good to great. Now is the time to use them, and I will grind with them if needed. They have all winter to refit. And I really want Moscow.

It's gonna be really close here as well.

I anticipate that Soviets will strip even more the area of AGN, and AGS to reinforce the Moscow region. I've been bad at guessing what he will do, though, as I thought he'd pull more out of the Leningrad area.

I have air refueled to maximum extent, as usual.

The FBD heads out of Smolensk, on it's way to Vyazma.




[image]local://upfiles/37041/F1FD9E5EED4A4F9B8E43BBF65C420BFA.jpg[/image]



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