RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (Full Version)

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Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (7/31/2011 12:54:47 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Apollo11

Hi all,

I have just encouraged Gids to continue fighting and never ever give up! [:)]

I am very much looking forward this continued grand campaign! [:)]



That's great! Thanks for the support!



Apollo11 -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (7/31/2011 12:59:29 PM)

Hi all,

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

quote:

ORIGINAL: Apollo11


I have just encouraged Gids to continue fighting and never ever give up! [:)]

I am very much looking forward this continued grand campaign! [:)]


That's great! Thanks for the support!


Thank you - it was my pleasure - we at the developer's forum love to see such dedicated and long term grand campaigns (and diverse as well [:D]) - this helps us seeing many aspects of the game that, otherwise, might be left "in the shadows"!


Leo "Apollo11"



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (7/31/2011 6:53:57 PM)

Turn 97. April 22 1943.

Nothing dramatic happning. Continuing slow reduction of the pockets at the Crimea. This is an overview of the front from Moscow and south.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/E64FBA99C6B240679231275B4C96E426.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (7/31/2011 8:59:43 PM)

Turn 98. April 28 1943.

Not much happening to show on the map. However, a couple of new trends have been observed:

* An airfield bombing campaign by the Reds. They lose more aircraft than we, so not really worrying so far.

* Soviet ground attacks suddenly seem to cause slightly more casualties than the suffer themselves. This is worrying! Previously, they always took more casualties than the defenders, even when they caused a retreat.



ComradeP -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (7/31/2011 10:31:14 PM)

Tarhunnas, could you post a screenshot showing the area from Tula to Kalinin or so in zoom level 3 or 4?



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/1/2011 6:25:20 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Tarhunnas, could you post a screenshot showing the area from Tula to Kalinin or so in zoom level 3 or 4?


Your wish is my command [;)].

This is from the beginning of turn 98, forgot to save during the turn.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/0803E263D52F48A9925E700CF44B11DC.jpg[/image]



ComradeP -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/1/2011 12:34:36 PM)

That looks better than I expected, there are still a fair number of reasonable to good CV units there and with those fort levels the Soviets are not likely to start pushing them around in any significant way.



Balou -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/1/2011 3:33:00 PM)

Is frontline attrition and/or loss of morale compensated by those fort levels? April isn't going to be blizzard, but many experts advocate to rotate out some units during winter.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/1/2011 3:46:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Balou

Is frontline attrition and/or loss of morale compensated by those fort levels? April isn't going to be blizzard, but many experts advocate to rotate out some units during winter.


This is the second winter, so blizzard effects doesn't apply. Rotating in and out of line now and then is necessary however, as attrition will slowly reduce the CV of units in the frontline.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/1/2011 10:34:48 PM)

Turn 99. May 6 1943.

Reducing the pockets at the Crimea is going veeeery slow. The units at the coast have beachhead supply, and with the mud, I cannot dislodge them. I had hoped to send 2d Panzer Army north again, but that will take at least another turn.

Sevastopol has been thuroughly sacked, but now the advance units are returning to the isthmuses. I am not putting units at risk in the Crimea.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/8DE79C7004B84A1BACA84E86A77E51BF.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/1/2011 10:37:29 PM)

At the Tambov front, we are likewise pulling back, after razing Penza to the ground. Soviet attacks have been growing stronger, and the Penza bulge began to feel like more of a liability than an asset.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/3F4C5E002D45464FA099911B859B37CD.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/1/2011 10:41:59 PM)

OOB turn 99. The Soviet CVs are rising all over. Soviet numbers have risen by 700,000 men and 20,000 guns since January, despite them taking heavy losses. I guess that makes a difference.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/A5D9CC48AEEB4B26948391C700752BFB.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/3/2011 9:25:30 PM)

[sm=00000436.gif]Turn 100! Celebration! [sm=00000436.gif]

May 13 1943.

A Soviet armor breakthrough is contained near Tambov. To gather the forces for that, the withdrawal of the front to the east has been accelerated.

Note the customary mid may snowfall.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/BACA5440C0F94818B782E1E8DAFDB015.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/3/2011 9:27:21 PM)

Losses turn 100.

Losses from last turn is somewhat inflated from a surrender of a surrounded stack at the Crimea.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/624390627A63417085B1F64071511AF8.jpg[/image]



ComradeP -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/4/2011 12:04:33 AM)

quote:

Note the customary mid may snowfall.


10 or 11 on the random weather roll, you're mostly fighting in the North Soviet zone currently.



Q-Ball -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/4/2011 4:48:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

quote:

Note the customary mid may snowfall.


10 or 11 on the random weather roll, you're mostly fighting in the North Soviet zone currently.


It shouldn't snow there in May though regardless. By Snow, I don't mean 1/2 inch a melt-off, but sustained Snow, which is what I think a "Snow" turn is.

If it "Snowed" in May, you wouldn't be able to grow wheat, which of course you can in Russia.

Even a light snow would prevent Corn cultivation, which you can in most of the Ukraine

Random weather, IMO, is too random.



unikey -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/4/2011 8:30:22 PM)

+1

gone back to non random its that bad



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/6/2011 8:21:01 AM)

Turn 101. Mud all over. The Soviets naturally freed their encircled tank corps, with the help of the 1-1 rule. Otherwise, not much happening.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/6/2011 3:31:24 PM)

Turn 102. May 27 1943. Mostly mud.

2d Panzer army is regrouping to the Tula area, fresh from its Crimean victory. OKH has developed a plan for the summer offensive 1943. If we can cut of the Soviet bulge southwest of Ryazan, we can trap some Soviet units and then anchor the front on the river Oka and establish a shorter front (shown in yellow below. Eliminating a suitable bulge somehow seems like an appropriate plan for the 1943 summer offensive.



[image]local://upfiles/37384/75F3345B189542CDAA5A80DAD036411A.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/6/2011 3:36:16 PM)

Meanwhile, victorious German and Rumanian troops are leaving the Crimea and reestablishing defenses at the isthmuses. They leave Crimea with its cities smoldering ruins, everything that can be of help to the enemy has been destroyed and undesirable ethnic groups eliminated. A job to be proud of for the II SS Panzer Corps! Edit: I better add that that was irony, just to be on the safe side!

[image]local://upfiles/37384/712BE863846B41618E7E74A871C33ADF.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/6/2011 3:43:05 PM)

OOB for turn 102. It is very interesting to compare the numbers with the numbers given by Glantz for the summer of 1943. Glantz figure is surprisingly high for july 1943, bit if it is correct, then the German army in this AAR is 500,000 men below Glantz figures, and that is in a very successful campaighn where the German army has not lost an entire army at Stalingrad! This suggests to me that if these numbers are correct, then WITE seriously underestimates German recuperative powers in early 1943!

A link to Glantz paper and further discussion can be found in this thread.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/3C7DA81DBB4540448B2F4B24274AF414.jpg[/image]



Lieste -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/6/2011 3:56:19 PM)

With only 63% in the East, the OOB is only 2194290... so you are 'too strong' by 710000 more or less.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/6/2011 4:01:39 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lieste

With only 63% in the East, the OOB is only 2194290... so you are 'too strong' by 710000 more or less.


Nope, read the paper. The number is the 63% that are in the east! I was wondering about that too, but when you read the paper, it is clear that the numbers Glantz give in the table are the actual numbers on the east front.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/6/2011 4:58:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lieste

With only 63% in the East, the OOB is only 2194290... so you are 'too strong' by 710000 more or less.


Nope, read the paper. The number is the 63% that are in the east! I was wondering about that too, but when you read the paper, it is clear that the numbers Glantz give in the table are the actual numbers on the east front.


Just to double check, in "When Titans Clashed" Glantz gives a figure of 3,403,000 Germans on the Eastern Front for July 1943. To be true, he gives a figure of 2,732,000 for April, and considering it's still May, I might see a massive influx the next few turns, but somehow I doubt it... [;)].

Actually, the jump in Glantz numbers from April to May of almost 700,000 men is kind of suspicious I admit.



ComradeP -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/6/2011 5:42:02 PM)

I've posted this a while ago on the tester forum and I recall posting it on this forum too.

Contrary to what I stated, I seem to recall including at least some of the manpower in HQ's as well, but I'm not entirely sure.

The main killer for the German effective strength is attrition and that you're never going to get most of those men back. Each German division at the frontline is likely to lose about 200-300 per men per week through attrition. We've had a discussion about it on the tester forum and Andy is of the opinion that if attrition includes disease and the like, it isn't too high, but the attrition losses are either completely permanent (KIA) or more or less permanent (disabled), which is why I think the figure is too high relative to what you get back, at least until the disabled pool gets over 1 million.

In order to get a general idea of how much manpower you get:

quote:

The Germans get ~380747 men in divison, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units during 1941.
~87995 men in division, brigade or regiment sized German combat units withdraw during 1941.

Net gain: ~292752 men.

I think I may have counted one or two divisions twice, but the Germans get ~704860 men in division, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units in 1942.
~123306 men in division, brigade or regiment sized German combat units withdraw in 1942.

Net gain: ~581554 men.

The Germans get ~430446 men in division, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units during 1943.
~261329 men in division, brigade or regiment sized German combat units withdraw during 1943.

Net gain: ~169117 men.

The Germans get ~544009 men in division, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units during 1944.
~439595 men in division, brigade or regiment sized German combat units withdraw during 1944.

Net gain: ~104414 men.

In just a little over 4 months, the Germans get a whopping ~465378 men in division, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units in 1945. The build-up for the final offensive operations in Hungary is the most impressive in the entire war in the east, seemingly.

Only 18895 men (two units, the 167th Infantry Division and the 4th SS Motorized Brigade) withdraw.

Net gain: ~446483 men.



Lieste -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/6/2011 5:54:23 PM)

Try plotting the data in several ways - If you treat his German Figures as values "for all fronts", and then multiply by the % in East & (1-%) for West/South et al, you get a near constant strength for 1941-1943 on the eastern front, and a steady decline over the remainder of the war.

If you treat his German figures as strength in the East, with at additional 25% to 67% over this... Well look at the two charts:

It is possible that the higher figure is correct, but it looks 'wrong', and it is possible an error was made in calculation by Glantz, a researcher or the publisher...

Don't know what the answer is, but I can't help thinking the numbers don't add up, given the lack of resources to deal with the (small) expeditionary forces in Italy and France.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/7/2011 2:12:20 PM)

Turn 103. June 3 1943. Clear.

The summer offensive takes off with the planned attack towards Ryazan, and a fine day for it too, with clear all over the map! Ryazan falls and Soviet arbaise personnel scatters in panic all over the steppe (displaced 6 or 7 airbases). As can be seen, some withdrawals have been made to the east to free up forces for the attack, as 4 Panzer Army shifts front unexpectedly and with precision.

Edit: If anyone wonders where the II SS Panzer Corps is, I will just say they are hiding in a safe place in preparation for a little surprise move.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/D012186B783B4C88A9951B9FC4B379E3.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/7/2011 2:14:35 PM)

Seen close up, the encirclement isn't all that great however. I am a bit apprehensive about Soviet counterattacks. They will break the encirclement easily, the question is, how much of the panzer forces will be trapped?

[image]local://upfiles/37384/A5AEF5ED0259495F8399B054D035579C.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/7/2011 2:21:13 PM)

Forgot to mention thet the Reds have started a veritable terror bombing campaign against our airfields. One airbase was bombed 11 times! [X(] I can't complain, we have no house rules against it. Still, that's why it feels extra good to overrun them Soviet airbases. An Il-2 looks so much better with tank tracks over it! [:D]

Below some results from the airbase bombings. I move some of my airfields further from the front to make it harder to bomb them.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/FB092541340A48EE95D612359A5A6137.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (8/7/2011 5:22:12 PM)

Turn 104. 10 June 1943.

The Soviets smash up the encirclement pretty badly and withdraw in force! Not totally unexpected.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/5D4F304E244C4183821A89199D45E4C0.jpg[/image]



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