RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (Full Version)

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Peltonx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 12:36:19 PM)

The Russian side does not get punnished for losing citys, losing men, losing production or losing land by just running east during the summers of 41 and 42.

The German side gets no rewards for taking Leningrad,Moscow to Rostov and then some, bagging far more then historical in production and killing more then historical in men and equipment.

Again in Tarhunnas words whats the pt of the Germans invading Russian?

Pelton



76mm -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 12:49:41 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
There is no way in hell that Russian moral would do anything other then tank with the losses of Moscow and Leningrad.


Really? And you would know this...how? While I agree that there should be greater consequences of the fall of Lgrad and Moscow, including the possiblity of lower morale, it should only be a possibility, not a certainty.

Russians are a contrary bunch. I once heard a joke which kind of illustrates the point, I will try to summarize here:

A Briton, a Frenchman, and a Russian were captured by cannibals, placed in pots, and fires lit beneath the pots. The cannibal chief told them that they would be boiled and eaten, with their skins made into a canoe for the chief. The chief asked them if they had any last requests...

The Briton asked for poison, proclaimed "Long Live the Queen!", and drank the poison...

The Frenchman asked for a knife, proclaimed "Vive l'France", and slit his throat...

The Russian asked for a fork. Somewhat surprised by the request, the chief gave the Russian a fork. With the words "To hell with your ****ing canoe!" he began jabbing himself with the fork over and over again...



Ketza -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 1:48:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ketza
Static mode is your new friend as Axis.


That can be quite dangerous when/if the Soviets manage to breakthrough and flank the static units. Being able to move just one hex to the west might well be not enough to restore the balance of your line. It also weakens somewhat the defense, since the vehicle shortage modifier would apply, although that won't be much for Infantry formations.


If you keep an admin pool this wont be an issue. It is far more important to cut your attrition losses across the board in every unit every turn where the front is not active. In my opinion.



Flaviusx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 3:28:49 PM)

Pelton, give Tarhunnas his armament points and he'd be in good shape here. This is really the basic problem. He also, quite frankly, way overextended himself in 1943 and allowed himself to fight a totaly unnecessary offensive that burned out the Wehrmacht. Knowing when to stop is half the game. (And knowing when to fall back is the other. There's really no need to be holding on to such an advanced line at this stage. He just has to run out the clock and wind up somewhere east of the prewar border.)

Look at Ketza's game against 76mm for proper defensive tactics.

In a fresh game, the armament problem is possibly gone. (I say possibly, because I'm still not sure if the numbers are right even with the bug taken out.) It's too late to repair the error so far as this game goes, alas.




Aurelian -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 3:32:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: 76mm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
There is no way in hell that Russian moral would do anything other then tank with the losses of Moscow and Leningrad.


Really? And you would know this...how? While I agree that there should be greater consequences of the fall of Lgrad and Moscow, including the possiblity of lower morale, it should only be a possibility, not a certainty.

Russians are a contrary bunch.


I would really like to know myself what is the basis for that as well.

One could just as well state that the loss of both would make the Russians rise up in an all consuming ferocity that conquers all.





Peltonx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 8:34:20 PM)

I am with you on the armerment issue. I still think it kinda stinks of something wrong.

As far as him just hanging on, its not that easy once the German army is broke and its almost broke I know from exp its over.

The Red army can advance faster then the German infantry can possibly retreat.

There just is no punishment for the Russian players losing 12 million men, more then historical in production and far far more then historical in citys and land.

Look at the huge losses of production, manpower centers and land and still Tarhunnas army is about to crack and fold up.

Gids can easly gain 4 to 6 hexs a turn all along the front soon and there be nothing Tarhunnas can do able it.

Pelton



Peltonx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 8:51:04 PM)

Yes sure Katza is doing good vs 76mm, but Tarhunnas has done far far more then Katza did. Katza is probably the best all around German player, but still if 76mm would start attacking all along the front he can break Katza in 20 turns.


There game is 20 turns behind this one it appears. If 76mm would be more offensive minded he could have started grinding Katza down.

The key for the Russians is attacking all along the line north to south as per historical. The Red losses can easly be made up for. No pockets until the German army is broken.

76mm has more then enough time to crack Katza if he start attacking all along the front.

76mm is good defending and not so hot attacking. Gids has lost 12 mil and is about to crack Tarhunnas. 76mm can do same he chooses not to. He has more then enough manpower/armerment pts to crack Katza withen 20 turns. The German army cant take 100,000+ deaths a turn for 20 turns. We seen it more then once.

Pelton



Ketza -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 9:26:13 PM)

I am in no way close to being one of the best Axis players. I just post a lot [:D]



Q-Ball -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 9:32:35 PM)

I don't think we can learn anything from this game in terms of whether the model works, is broken, etc. I think we need newer games to get to 1944 before making any kind of judgements. Just too many changes with big effects.

Independent of that, no matter how this turns out, in my opinion Tarhunnas is the winner. He won this game in 41-42 hands-down no contest, and even if 1943 was a "minor defeat" he wins.

It's hard to declare winners like that all the time, but it's clear to me in this one.



Klydon -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/14/2011 9:41:46 PM)

Yes, very tough to judge anything by this one since there have been so many changes to the game since they started in April.

I also agree that Tarhunnas should be the winner on this one and Gids deserves major props for hanging in past the point that a lot of guys would have quit.

I also think this AAR helped the design team with some game issues as it went along and was very useful in helping with later versions of the game.



Peltonx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/15/2011 2:14:49 AM)

I think it is still very useful and the team can still learn allot from it.



76mm -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/15/2011 5:54:53 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
...but still if 76mm would start attacking all along the front
he can break Katza in 20 turns.


You realize I'd be attacking at something like 1:4 odds in most cases? I wish that would work but somehow I don't think so...



Encircled -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/15/2011 9:49:28 AM)

Pelton

Play the Russians




Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 6:56:38 PM)

Turn 135. January 13 1944. Blizzard.

Things are looking desperate on the front east of Belgorod. German combat values are abysmal. It seems the fate of the German army to melt away, the main difference is when and where. Map before Axis moves.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/46D48E9D02454251AF75E8679E69007A.jpg[/image]



Q-Ball -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 6:59:50 PM)

With not a fort to be seen in that shot, and no defensive barriers whatsoever other than a couple cities, I think it's time to make a run for the Dnepr. I would set units to REFIT, and get moving WEST.

You have territory to burn right now, you may as well burn it.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 7:23:15 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

With not a fort to be seen in that shot, and no defensive barriers whatsoever other than a couple cities, I think it's time to make a run for the Dnepr. I would set units to REFIT, and get moving WEST.

You have territory to burn right now, you may as well burn it.


There is one level 1 fort in the lower part.... [;)].
Probably a good idea to withdraw. I do have a long fortified line north of Moscow though, and withdrawing would unhinge that too.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 7:24:39 PM)

The front in the north. Not much happening here. Most units are now on static to reduce attrition.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/590271D5A00C426FBF6665A9C071ADF0.jpg[/image]



Flaviusx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 7:28:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

With not a fort to be seen in that shot, and no defensive barriers whatsoever other than a couple cities, I think it's time to make a run for the Dnepr. I would set units to REFIT, and get moving WEST.

You have territory to burn right now, you may as well burn it.


There is one level 1 fort in the lower part.... [;)].
Probably a good idea to withdraw. I do have a long fortified line north of Moscow though, and withdrawing would unhinge that too.


Moscow is irrelevant.

The only thing you need to worry about is beating the clock. If you end this thing anywhere near the prewar border, you're good to go. That's a win. And I'm still doubting the Germans can get to Berlin in time. Don't expend the Wehrmacht hundreds of miles east of where you need to be to win.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 7:46:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

With not a fort to be seen in that shot, and no defensive barriers whatsoever other than a couple cities, I think it's time to make a run for the Dnepr. I would set units to REFIT, and get moving WEST.

You have territory to burn right now, you may as well burn it.


There is one level 1 fort in the lower part.... [;)].
Probably a good idea to withdraw. I do have a long fortified line north of Moscow though, and withdrawing would unhinge that too.


Moscow is irrelevant.

The only thing you need to worry about is beating the clock. If you end this thing anywhere near the prewar border, you're good to go. That's a win. And I'm still doubting the Germans can get to Berlin in time. Don't expend the Wehrmacht hundreds of miles east of where you need to be to win.


Thanks for the advice! I agree with the reasoning. Not really possible with a big withdrawal this turn, but I'll start it next turn.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 7:46:53 PM)

OOB turn 135.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/260FC6385ED7414EB546A312CDBAADAA.jpg[/image]



Flaviusx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 7:49:41 PM)

One thing to keep in mind: units set to static that retreat will now remain on static. (I'm not entirely sure I agree with this change but there it is.) This can become a disaster if not handled correctly. We've had some major headaches redesigning the scenarios to account for the rules change. (The 1944 GC turns into the destruction of AGN and AGC with all the units set to static, for example, the Germans don't have enough APs to get things activated and things snowball quite badly as a result. Trey had to adjust for that.)

It's a damn shame about your armaments situation. It really is seriously screwing up this game. You really should have it in the bag, but the inability to get your men on the field and out of your pools is distorting things badly.






karonagames -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 8:29:22 PM)

I think it would be worth asking Pavel to do a "Hot hack" to give you the 200k armaments or whatever it is you lost because of the 47mm bug. It would be a shame to see the front crumble for something that was not your fault.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 9:12:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

One thing to keep in mind: units set to static that retreat will now remain on static. (I'm not entirely sure I agree with this change but there it is.) This can become a disaster if not handled correctly. We've had some major headaches redesigning the scenarios to account for the rules change. (The 1944 GC turns into the destruction of AGN and AGC with all the units set to static, for example, the Germans don't have enough APs to get things activated and things snowball quite badly as a result. Trey had to adjust for that.)



I have a suspicion this doesn't work. I had a division retreated this turn and I am fairly certain that it was in static mode before, but it isn't after it's retreat.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

It's a damn shame about your armaments situation. It really is seriously screwing up this game. You really should have it in the bag, but the inability to get your men on the field and out of your pools is distorting things badly.



Thanks. I am getting used to it though, this is the third time it happens [8|].



Peltonx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 9:22:58 PM)

Wow your numbers are dropping fast.

200,000 in arm pts is not going to save the game now. Your moral overall is to low now. Sure armerment pts will fill up divisions, but they still be usless 1 to 3 CV units.

The problem you have now is your infantry even not in static mode can't out run Russian armor.

Gids can now start picking off a handfull of divisions every turn. If you try to save them you lose other units, which after 10 turns will make your army truely usless. Even during mud turns Gids will be able to attack your formations.

So once summer comes in June his railheads will be at the front an he beable to start building some pockets.

I am guessing more then likely a minor russian victory and a slim chance of a major Russian victory.

Really sad seeing you did so good over-all.

Its more then likely that even with 1.05 this will be the general out come now, better then the German army braking in 43.

The problem now is Russian players can save almost all there industry that matters and run east. This insures a huge army come the summer of 42 which will mean trenchwarfare in 42 and the braking of the German army in early to mid 44. The lines will be much farther east then this game so will end in mostly major Russian victory's.

Once the German army brakes its 4 to 6 hexes a turn which means 100 hexes in just 15 to 20 turns.

You did far better then historical in killed troops, industry, manpower center and land and still your hopes for even a draw are looking very very grim. Even with 200k more armerment points a draw is not very likely.

Pelton



Q-Ball -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 9:32:14 PM)

RE: Static, why not just make sure you save enough APs to activate several divisions in the event of trouble? It's not that expensive to activate 20 at a time, which should be enough to stop trouble.

Problem with 1944 scenario was that you didn't have APs in the bank to make the activations. During a normal game, you probably would.



Tarhunnas -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 9:58:01 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Wow your numbers are dropping fast.

200,000 in arm pts is not going to save the game now. Your moral overall is to low now. Sure armerment pts will fill up divisions, but they still be usless 1 to 3 CV units.



Not sure morale is the problem. Here is a pic of commanders report showing the worst German infantry divisions.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/3B15A02CE17B4D9091E596E0931404C0.jpg[/image]



Q-Ball -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 10:21:28 PM)

Tarhunnas's last production shot had about 300,000 men in the German pool, between Germans and Hiwis. So, even with 1 mil Armaments, you'll still be only up to 2.7 mil; probably too little to sustain an effort.

You're right, your biggest problem isn't morale, it's that your Infantry Divisions are completely cooked. Only the Latvians have any strength, and that's because they just got there.



Flaviusx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 10:24:48 PM)

The Red Army isn't amazing here. It's very low on AFVs and artillery compared to its historical counterpart.

If the Wehrmacht can break contact it will recover some morale. And fall back to far more defensible terrain. Then recover during the spring and fall rasputitsas and hold on to defenses based on major rivers during the summer.

But living hand to mouth on whatever armaments you get per turn is probably not enough to drain the manpower pools. (There's probably more manpower that can be freed up from excess HQs and airfields, too.) This is the real sticking point. The situation is repairable otherwise.

Some of the worst infantry divisions might just have to be merged with others here. I would also consider disbanding some artillery SUs, and leaving the rest set at minimum TOE.



Ketza -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 10:40:15 PM)

For the Static strategy to work you need a pool of APS great enough to "wake up" a sizable section of the front. I have seen that static divisions do remain that way after combat retreats so that is working properly.

Also this is a long term strategy. Going static every now and again really is not going to do much but going static along most of your front over time you can see a tremendous long term impact from attrition savings. In my case I am estimating those savings to be around 75k a month. Not a lot data so far but the trend is good.

This of course also works for the Soviet side but I am guessing it will not be used as often because "waking up" static units uses APS that are gold to a Soviet player. And it will really suck for a Soviet player to "wake up" 25 hexes of the front after a general Axis withdrawal [:D]



Peltonx -> RE: 1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids) (10/17/2011 11:24:14 PM)

Nice info Katza. When it comes to defending and managing logistics I am thinking there are none better.

I need to get my game at some wheres near 75% or your in those areas.

Your moral does look manageable unless you keep losing battles.

Flaviusx ideas would help, but it be very hard to brake contact. Vs Hoooper he pushed during mud turns. Yes he lost almost every battle, but it kept draining me. So if Gids chooses he can keep presurre on even during mud and still be gaining troops every turn.

Keep up the good fight, I know what its like once the german army is broken. There are no good options.

Only thing that helped was my mech forses could pulge breaches easly.



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