Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (Full Version)

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Phanatikk -> Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/26/2011 7:43:58 PM)

I'm curious about everyone's opinions about whether this is gamey, or just good strategic sense in a game of no consequence?

What I think everyone/anyone can agree on:
-JFBs know how important Palembang is.
-The historical Japanese leaders knew how important oil sources were, including Palembang.
-AFBs know how important Palembang is.
-This is a game. The game is set in an historic period.
-The 1s and 0s don't get a say if their deaths were heroic or meaningless. They don't get a say if the troops assigned to protect them are pulled out to deny access elsewhere. No player suffers from what would be political lunacy, win, lose, or draw.
-Game mechanics allow/provide for it.
-Japan is going to lose the war*. (aside from some "auto-win" possiblilities (which surely require mistakes/really bad luck to occur), which IMO would be ahistorical anyway, just like expecting the U.S. to rollover because of a bad PH result.)
-Japan loses slower if it captures Palembang intact*. The sooner the slower.
(* this result based upon both players being within a similiar range)

Questionable?:
-The historical Allied leaders knew how important specific oil sources were to Japan, or just superficially? FDR knew that an oil embargo would put pressure on the Japanese, but did he know they would be belly up in 6-9 months without a new source?
-If pulling troops from locations that allied leaders would never have abandoned historically is not gamey, because Palembang is THAT important, than would it be gamey on a non-historical Dec 7th to use The Warp to land immediately and pray for rain to prevent FP?


I've seen comments that it's up to the JFB to prevent FP from occurring, but just how would this really be accomplished? Submarine interdiction can do only so much, and how would Air Transport be prevented? An early amphib op and pray for a lot of rain?

If Fortress Palembang were determined to be gamey, would it come down to a HR to permit good strategic sense but deny gameyness?

It seems to me that AFBs would WANT JFBs to have some reason to want to continue the game into '43 and later so that they (AFBs) get to the period of the war they probably enjoy the most. Lots of AV, lots of flattops, etc. If JFBs get really delayed and/or finally capture a trashed Palembang that hastens an already forgone conclusion, then why not concede immediately and hope for better in the next game of no consequence? Of course, some people refuse to surrender, and some people value a win over the play.

Thoughts?
-Phanatik



Canoerebel -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/26/2011 10:39:59 PM)

One of the hidden treasures AE's designers gave us - whether they intended to or not - are the obscurities we must discover and utilize. One of those obscurities is the importance and utility of Palembang, which be be used in fresh and unexpected ways. This makes Palembang more important, and more useful, than it was in real life, but the Japanese player can attend to that and negate it IMO, so it isn't an abuse.

The prsence of hidden treasures like Palembang is something that helps us experience the uncertainty that real commanders faced in WWII. Those real commanders had little or no idea that obscure places like Midway, Guadalcanal, Port Moresby, and the Hump would become critical to the outcome of the war. For them it was life or death, but for us it adds excitement.

If AE was modelled faithfully on the exact situation and conditions that existed in the war, we'd all enter the matches with an omnipotence that would rob the game of that excitement IMO.

Palembang is a wondeful variable that adds zest to the game. We would be fortunate if there were other such variables, hard to identify but exciting when finally discovered, to keep us intrigued and surprised and delighted.



Chickenboy -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/26/2011 11:04:41 PM)

As an exclusively Japanese player, I'd say that it makes good sense for the Allied player to attempt the FP gambit. I have no problem with it at all.

Canoerebel is right-if the Japanese player really wants to prevent this from occuring, they can set up their initial forces accordingly. For example, if I was REALLY afraid of the FP gambit, I'd have:

1. KB whack Manila.
2. Redirect some of my Malaya forces towards Palembang.
3. Have KB begin whacking shipping around Palembang beginning turn 4 or 5 and throwing an LRCAP over Palembang that same turn.

You probably wouldn't even need to use the * designated TFs for the turn one invasions.

Yes, the Japanese player has the forces at his disposal to remove this potential problem if he chooses to trade off some alternative actions. Well, what other gambits do you fear less? What are you willing to trade off in exchange for early securing of Palembang? That's the question, IMO-not whether there should be a house rule against this innovative defensive strategy.



Canoerebel -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/26/2011 11:35:46 PM)

I'm an Allied player only, but can't Japan nip Fortress Palembang in the bud by quickly seizing Singkawang or Kuching and then making the base an LBA threat? Then the Japanese player can monitor what's going on in eastern Sumatra and western Java, adjusting to meet any crisis before it develops. Also, dealing with Singapore on a timely basis will help.

It's one thing for Japan to deal with an Allied player who transfers the weak Dutch units (along with some Indian and Aussie units from the vicinty) to Palembang. That would be an irriatation and nothing more. But giving the Allies the time and space to send in real troops in big numbers turns a minor nuisance into a full blown crisis. There may be ways to deal with the crisis, but it's probably better to take the steps required to prevent it from occuring.



topeverest -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/26/2011 11:56:57 PM)

Phanatik,

Palembang obviously is one of the most important hexes in the game. IMHO, any way you want to play it as empire or allies in the first months is not Gamey. Most allied players will handily rebuke a half baked effort to take her early on. That said, there are ways to do it early...as Chickenboy states. Fortress "Allies" is tough to pull off against agressive empire players. You wont get the time to build it.

Later, the allies dont have to invade the hex to make the hex mute. In fact, most will destroy it and keep it down with LBA / HB or carrier raids or through Singapore (should the allies retake that). With that in mind, Empire 'fortress' Palembang has diminshing returns with high investment. Get as much as you can out of the DEI early before any 29's arrive and defend aggresively.




crsutton -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/27/2011 5:00:08 AM)

Any Japanese player should be aware of the gambit. With aggressive play it can be countered. It is a gambit that when countered can cost the Allied player in troops and shipping. Not paying attention can cause some issues. But for the Japanese player, there are half a dozen crucial places on the map where not paying attention in the early months can lead to serious problems.



Fallschirmjager -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/27/2011 5:04:45 AM)

Do Allied engineers still do damage to the oil and production when they are ejected from the hex?
I knew this to be the case with WitP but am not sure if it was retained in AE.



freeboy -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/27/2011 6:37:10 AM)

not enough, never enough damage
damge n the game is alway, even when you have ports at 100, something that takes a realistic time to fix...



Q-Ball -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/27/2011 2:56:18 PM)

I don't think it's gamey, but the only way to counter it is direct invasion in the first week of the war.

Even with a heavy air umbrella over the base, Dutch flying boats can pull out troops from Singapore. You can use ships too; Betty intercepts are not reliable in December down there.

An easy counter, though, provided you are NOT playing historical first turn, is to divert some of the Malaya boys for Palembang. You will need heavy IJN support in case Force Z is around. Even with historical start, there is enough in Saigon to take it out, even with a handful of Malaya troops thrown in, but you need to move fast.

It's an irritant having to divert forces to grab it, but on the bright side, that will provide an easy springboard to Java



bhawes -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/27/2011 4:26:05 PM)

Palembang invasion isn't required in the first week, Sinkawang with Lillys & the zeroes from Thialand is enough..

I mean doesn't every JFB replace all a/c on miniKB with Zeroes & Kates and sail past Singers in the first week to bait & kill all the wilderbeasts? That'll catch any FPB set up every time, not to mention the subs & cruisers available..



treespider -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/27/2011 6:52:35 PM)

In my mod Palembang does not generate the supplies it does in stock...so not sure it is the issue that it seems to be in stock.



jolly_pillager -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/27/2011 7:23:49 PM)

Bomb the refinery from Singapore.

Oil, unlike fuel, does not seem to suffer wastage, so you're actually increasing the amount of resources you will capture, and having the bulk of the Dutch army pinned down in one place where resupply is not forthcoming makes the conquest of the remainder of the DEI that much easier.



Miller -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/29/2011 10:23:05 PM)

Any competent IJN player would render this "FP" scenario impossible once Force Z is neutralised.



ChezDaJez -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/30/2011 4:07:43 AM)

quote:

It's one thing for Japan to deal with an Allied player who transfers the weak Dutch units (along with some Indian and Aussie units from the vicinty) to Palembang. That would be an irriatation and nothing more. But giving the Allies the time and space to send in real troops in big numbers turns a minor nuisance into a full blown crisis. There may be ways to deal with the crisis, but it's probably better to take the steps required to prevent it from occuring.


Now you tell me!

On a more serious note, I see nothing wrong with FP. I hadn't encountered FP before and so didn't prepare for it. Now, I will be lucky to take Palembang before 1944. Fortunately, Japan can live without it but she is going to have to conserve fuel as much as possible.

Keep schoolin' me CR, I'm learning more every day!

Chez




fcharton -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/30/2011 8:36:28 AM)

Defending an important, and well defensible hex, is not gamey, this is the way the game is supposed to be played. The system rewards a lot defenses concentrated over a small number of bases, as opposed to weaker strengths over a large perimeter (somehow, I believe replacements/fatigue recovery work a bit too well, for both sides), and once you accept this, Fortress XXX strategies become quite logical.

The disturbing aspect of Fortress Palembang is the destruction of resources that inevitably follows. This stems from the fact that we know (from hindsight) that oil is very important, and "must" be seized intact and early, that oilfields are very concentrated (compared to resources), notably in Palembang, and that they are very brittle and costly to repair (a badly trashed Palembang would take two years, and three quarter of a million supply points to repair). By defending Palembang (and a few other bases, eg Magwe), the Allies can almost guarantee that a significant fraction of oilfields accessible to Japan are wrecked on capture. Another strange thing is that damage to facilities only seem to be dealt at base capture. In other words, two months of heavy fighting over the base would not deprive the allies of one refinery or oil point, but capture of the base would magically take a thousand points away...

Now, is this historical? We do know oil was important, but could it be destroyed so easily? My impression is that most players would agree there is something wrong with the resource damage model: just look at the number of home rules forbidding strategic bombing of resources. If we agree that the damage model is a bit too harsh, then FP strategies could be contrived as exploits of the game system.

This said, Fortress Palembang is not the Allied panacea some seem to believe. It does limit Japanese access to oil, but costs a fair number of allied troops to implement, and once the Empire realizes the base won't fall easily, it becomes sensible to try and bomb its facilities... (since they will be wrecked in the end, why let the Allies use them?) Right now, this means air bombing (why?). If Japan can isolate, and slowly reduce, southern Sumatra, Fortress Palembang means more allies unit destroyed in late 42, and therefore a delayed schedule for reconquest...


Personally, I think my main problem with this strategy is that it has somehow become the "dish of the day". I suspect many players now starting a game as the Allies try it. It does not ruin the game, even with low access to fuel, Japan can play (just don't complain, then, that China gets too much interest: the less fuel Japan has, the more continental the war becomes...), but it does force the early game into ruts, a bit like stereotyped chess openings, which you play because "they're in the book".

Francois



SuluSea -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/30/2011 5:33:10 PM)

Allied player turned Japanese side here, I don't see where HRs are needed. I'd welcome the allied player wasting PPs and forces on Palembang.

Because of the defensive bonuses and supply Palembang produces it should be one of the initial goals of the empire and IMO should be in hand before 5 weeks of hostilities have passed preferably sooner depending on Force Z's status. At the latest the Battle of Palembang should start when the KB makes an appearance.



obvert -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/31/2011 2:30:59 PM)

quote:

Personally, I think my main problem with this strategy is that it has somehow become the "dish of the day". I suspect many players now starting a game as the Allies try it. It does not ruin the game, even with low access to fuel, Japan can play (just don't complain, then, that China gets too much interest: the less fuel Japan has, the more continental the war becomes...), but it does force the early game into ruts, a bit like stereotyped chess openings, which you play because "they're in the book"


As a chess player, it's this 'book' of openings, strategies, and even endgames that make WITP AE fascinating and addictive. As chess players I and my friends would often look a t book moves and interpret our own versions based on style, aggressive vs defensive aims, and our opponents. Over time openings in chess have evolved, and there have been fashions for certain looks over time. There are always certain openings in fashion, like Fisher's aggressive Sicilian Najdorf, or Karpov's quiet Caro Kann. They work for a while until someone figures out an alternative that improves upon them.

Style and opening moves in AE are similar in that certain objectives must be met, but the timeline and sequence for achieving the requisite goals can be altered. This is why this game is so intriguing and dynamic. The simplicity of goals combined with the complication of play allow for style and individualism to determine new and different ways to solve the same problems.

Soon I'm sure certain JFBs will welcome the FP because they have found a way to lure a player into committing a lot of forces there, while preparing all along to invade massively and annihillate large amounts of Allied troops, planes and ships when it's too late to turn back.



treespider -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/31/2011 4:49:40 PM)

IMO...FP rubs some people wrong because of the "unrealistic" nature of the gambit. I doubt that Palembang could have supported a prolonged siege supporting a 100,000 troops...but that's only conjecture on my part.



ny59giants -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (5/31/2011 5:23:37 PM)

In my re-start as Allies, my Japanese opponent (a relatively newbie to PBEM), took on FP quickly. How?? He used the non-historical 1st turn to move CV Kaga and Hiryu to watch over the Mersing Gambit with 5th Division. Then, he landed the 21st & 33rd Division at Palembang (which fell Dec 20th). In our brief teaching game that went to June 42, I landed the 3 at sea British brigades on Sumatra and he took Palembang in early Jan 42, but both facilities had less than 50 centers intact. It may be overkill, but it took it intact.



PresterJohn001 -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (6/2/2011 8:55:15 PM)



My current preferred approach is a couple of fleet carriers to the Singapore region on turn 1. Four is enough for Pearl Harbour. Escort the invasion of Palembang and as an added bonus you can often catch / kill force Z if you've not forced it on its death run. One or two regiments are plenty. Palembang falls day after you land troops there. Just remember not to try and send BB's in and a minesweeper may be helpful due to the minelayer that starts in Palembang.

I like having the fleet carriers in the region as it gives you dominance to move where you like



ScooterV -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (6/2/2011 9:08:53 PM)

Ok, as a noob here and finding much info on this topic elsewhere, what is Fortress Palembang?

What is moved in, from where, how, etc?  Regardless of if it works, doesn't, or some see it as a bit shady I'm just trying to figure out what the specifics of the topic even is.





HexHead -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (6/2/2011 9:20:20 PM)

Fort P means the Allied player makes a strong point, a fortress, out of Palembang to contest the Japanese seizure of Sumatra and put a serious wrench into Japanese seizure of the DEI.

Troops, planes, maybe naval assets - Fortress Palembang.



ScooterV -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (6/2/2011 9:26:10 PM)

Well, I got that much out of it :)

Just curious what effort is put into it.  I saw mention of PP's, so it is obviously more than just the few Dutch units that would only go "splat".

When setting up the "fortress", I guess I am asking what units, and from where, are typically included.   How far do those trying this push it?



Nemo121 -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (6/3/2011 9:14:22 AM)

Festung Palembang is utterly defeatable both by the Japanese pushing faster than normal, reprioritising but keeping the original pace or going for an isolation and starvation strategy and a more methodical reduction of the Festung.

I speak here as the person who probably was the first to AAR a Festung Palembang strategy as the keystone to a plan to stop the Japanese cold in their tracks in early 1942. As with any strategy there are many counter.... and there are counters to the counters, many of which are detailed in my AAR on that game.


ScooterV - There are several approaches. I would suggest either the Salutations and Solicitations AAR or Canoerebel's AAR vs Chez Da Jez as starting points. The 1st (Salutations and Solicitations ) is the result of a Festung Palembang strategy being decided on from, I believe, the 10th December and features phasing of actions in other theatres to support the theatre of decision from very early on in the game. Canoerebel's AAR features a Festung Palembang being approached in a slightly more gradual way but, eventually, being committed to relatively wholeheartedly. There are fewer supporting operations in other theatres but it is probably a more accessible AAR. You might want to read Canoerebel's first and the Salutations and Solicitations next. I think it'd be important to read both because both have slightly different approaches and emphases.


There's no panacea, there's no ueber-strategy there is simply maximising the benefits and minimising the disadvantages of the situation you find yourself in and dislocating your opponent's Boyd cycle. If you do that then you'll win, you'll win early and you'll win big ( or if playing Japan in the late-war period you'll lose, lose late, lose big but take a damned lot of the USN and US Army with you). Realistically though, as the Allies in Scenario 2, your goal should be to get your opponent to concede by the end of September 1942 and to be re-invading/invading the Phillipines/Kuriles and other islands one to two "hops" from the Home Islands by March 1943 if the game continues that far with a view to finishing the game with the collapse of the Japanese economy and eradication of the IJN by the end of 1943. IN Scenario 1 that end-game time frame could be moved up 3 to 6 months.



ScooterV -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (6/3/2011 7:53:02 PM)

Thanks Nemo!! Interesting reading :)

Since I'm still working on learning the interface, learning supply, and a never ending pile of other things after finally jumping over from the old DOS Pacific War this actually looks interesting while I'm just playing around with it yet. Well, because it generates supply and so far is my biggest hurdle to wrap my head around, lol.



JeffroK -> RE: Fortress Palembang: The Third Rail of Witp:AE? (6/3/2011 11:52:56 PM)

If scared of invading Palembangagainst a prepped Allied Force, go via Oosthave and attack from his landward side.

IRL, I doubt that much would be taken from the defence of Malaya or The Phillipines to defend Palembang and IMHO the Dutch forces available wouldnt stand up to much. You need a long term occupation for it to be an effective tactic, not just "another week or two"

IFF playing against the AI, or a PBEM japanese player, It would become an interesting option to move 18 Br Div, the Indian Bdes in transit and maybe the AIF units. I tried this against the AI and it makes a more fun campaign than being chased out of Burma, except the RAF is soooo weak.



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