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heliodorus04 -> RE: Leningrad T12 (11/8/2011 11:14:15 PM)
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The supply route in the south is much better, with a lot of alternate routes about to be created. But the center is in risky shape along the Daugava, so I’m being proactive. Does anyone think this might be effective for me?
AFTER MOVE TURN COMMENTARY
5-TURN PLAN
As I review all this (after sending CF the turn) I’ve got to thinking about what I want to get done before the firs t turn of blizzard, and an assessment of my strategy so far. I’ll start with the latter.
Having gone over my goals and priorities, I thought I’d mention that my grand design for this 1941 campaign is one of engaging the Soviet Army as often as possible in conditions as favorable to me as possible. Obviously 1-million men encirclements are cool-looking and fun: Axis fantasies. But that was as much luck as skill, and I shouldn’t be expecting anything like that anytime again soon, if ever. Originally, I thought keeping detailed records of every division and its HQ has not had as much a payoff as I thought it would.
Where I thought I would see divisions reduced to shells in a turn or two under frequent attack, I have learned that the Soviets get a tremendous amount of units, and rotating lines are normal. CF is a great organizer. Over a turn or 2, the tracking definitely helps me choose whether to do a #HSA or a deliberate, and has helped my units conserve MPs and avoid losses. It has also given me a fairly decent idea of something that I consider important to track henceforth: New Soviet Army arrival.
It became a readily apparent trend that when I fought my way into the divisions of an Army newly arrived to the front, the artillery support in the first 2-4 attacks was very high, contributing to tough fights. New Army units required stack-attacks and/or deliberates, and you had to be especially careful the second time you attack a unit. But after you’ve hit divisions of that Army 5-7 times, and 80 percent of those are retreats, then hasty attacks are going to be far more efficient, as the SUs are beaten down from a lot of retreating.
Also, while individual divisions can sometimes accumulate 2-4K manpower between turns (outliers, but they happen), given the armament situation, the Army’s SUs, especially artillery, do not recover much, if at all.
The idea I was trying to reach for was to answer the question whether by repeatedly beating down the divisions in your way if the morale hit could create a safety buffer for both the blizzard and to a lesser extent, to 1942’s summer campaign. I don’t know if I have an answer to that yet. Data-collection on Soviet divisions through 12 turns doesn’t yet tell me much other than the Soviet have a LOT of divisions. New ones keep showing up all the time, and so far, all of them are actually full of men, if not guns.
CF hasn’t been able to contest my initiative anywhere, but that’s not necessarily a sign that he’s off balance. His demeanor and calm when he learned of the Kiev pocket was unsettlingly peaceful (to me). The Soviet has little to gain from attacks, particularly in the way I’ve conducted my security. The only sign I see that perhaps he’s strained is that I’m seeing Cavalry fill the line, and that’s usually a sign that Rifle divisions are brittle and/or in short supply. Still, that’s not strong data of his imminent collapse.
So I still don’t know if my Erode Army Morale approach is remotely close to viable.
Which brings me to my next point: I think I will only know whether this is working when the blizzard rolls around and his units are weaker than ‘normal’ (I don’t know what a normal blizzard is like). I’ve been following along with, I think it was Q-ball’s discussion, of the importance of attacking to increase your morale and lower the enemy’s.
Toward that end, I am resolving that my 5-turn plan will consist of leveraging every opportunity to attack, attack, attack. I’m not going to ignore fort preparation for winter, but rather I am hoping to rely on surviving winter through the custom of forts & cities along thought-out phase lines, and ensuring the Red Army is as small and poorly functioning as I can make it. This means snow is also going to be a major offensive stance, at least in certain sectors.
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