RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (Full Version)

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Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 5:20:57 PM)

I agree that Deep Battle likely plays into Nemo's theme. That and several offline conversations with Nemo where I tried to puzzle a way out of Japan's basic strategic dilemma of taking on a power with more than 50% of worldwide manufacturing capability when you have roughly 4% of same.

I will post screenies of losses tonight, but the short answer is that Canoe left me an intact carrier force and VERY minimal losses to the surface and merchant fleets. IJN losses are also small, IIRC.

I am sad to hear of the difficulties between Nemo, Sulu and John 3rd. Both of you guys have helped me out immensely in my game with Cuttlefish, and I respect you both.

Concerning Nemo, I will concede he is a contrarian, which often stirs conflicting emotions in people. I do appreciate his skills and hope to learn a lot. I see no better way of becoming a better player and strategic thinker than to take him on. I will also say that in his dealings with me he has been good.

In fact, to delve into the mind of the PsyOps king himself, I would argue that he really is a contrarian and this is key to his worldview. Note his assertions that the Soviets had the better doctrine and better chance to win the long-postulated invasion of West Germany. He backs his case well, but it is a contrarian position on a board populated mostly by Westerners with a good leavening of former NATO military personnel. I will ponder how to incorporate this into the game.



DOCUP -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 5:38:31 PM)

Good luck Cribtop.  Remember Nemo is flesh and blood just like you.  He will make mistakes, he will get upset, and all that.  If he likes to flip turns quick don't do it slow the tempo down.  Just like running a no huddle offense.  Play your game.  You don't need me to tell you how to play so I will go find CR's AAR and catch up on this game.

Good Luck



Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 5:56:02 PM)

Thanks, DOCUP. Fortunately one of the pre-conditions of this match is that, since I'm already playing Cuttlefish and have a 5 month old, my time is limited. I'm aiming to run 2 turns per week and plan to stick to that. That said, it was surprising how quickly things went issuing orders when you don't have to worry about the economy.



fcharton -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 6:44:24 PM)

Hi Cribtop,

Just one observation which you probably have made already.

Nemo loves to talk about the importance of reserves and their commitment, and I believe that deep down, they are the core of his vision of warfare (we all have a specific "way" of looking at things). Spot the reserves, where they are going, and you will have an edge.

Now, he (QBall in fact) just lost seven divisions in India, and the previous game had a "PP for borders" rule, which means those seven divisions represent at least half of his forces (exclucing China). QBall's perimeter was not specially small either, so, no matter how you look at it, he's spread thin in the Pacific, and he cannot build a decent operational reserve with his troops in the Pacific anytime soon.

In my opinion, his reserve will come from the Continent, China and Manchuria.

Do you have a PP for border rule? And does he hold the Changsha railroad (which allow to move units south)? And do you have an idea of QBall's stock of PP? If he can't move his troops easily, chances are he'll go for China and Russia, or try to gain time so that he can free them...

As for PsyOps, there's a cute Zen story, not precisely explicit (or it would not be a Zen story) but enlightening (because it is a Zen story)

Two students were arguing, a master came by and asked what they fought about.
- We're discussing the flag, over there, I'm saying the flag is moving, he's saying it isn't, the wind is moving
The master laughed
- fools! only the mind is moving.

Keep your mind immobile, "mindset" as they say, and the PsyOps won't work. It takes two hands to clap.

Francois




Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 6:57:35 PM)

Good points. We do have a PP for borders rule, and Q did get a lot of divisions wrecked in India. My suspicion is that China is likely, hadn't really thought about Russia but it would certainly be the kind of "big move" Nemo is fond of. Next in order of probability is Oz, but that seems low on the totem pole for various reasons. There is a small chance he will re-invade India to "do it right," but that seems a longshot given losses incurred and the large Allied force in India at present.



Canoerebel -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 7:02:16 PM)

Look at Pearl Harbor, too. Traditionally, I don't heavily garrison Pearl, and I think Nemo knows that. That's the kind of misdirection play he'd love to launch when you launch your major invasion of some distant locale.

I don't think India or southern Oz are likely. Besides, southern Oz has so many Americna troops that he'd get clobbered. New Zealnd or Pago Pago are remote possibilities, but strategically they don't offer him anything worthwile.

So, if Nemo wants to attack in a big way, China, Russia, and Pearl Harbor would seem to be his best options.



Mac Linehan -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 7:49:29 PM)

Cribtop -

Am delighted that you and Nemo (two very experienced players!) have taken up the challenge and are continuing this very exciting game. I will follow with interest, and expect to see the fur fly with a good measure of cunning deviousness to be employed by both sides, Sir!

Edit: Canoerebel, I would like to emphasize that you have, with the untimely end of your Q-Ball game, acted and spoken as the Southern Gentleman that I know you to be. Nothing shows a Man's character more clearly than his behavior and grace under adverse conditions. I am sure that Q-Ball meant no personal offense; we have all behaved out of character at various times in our lives. It was Colin Powell (IIRC) who had the quote "Nothing impresses men more than restraint" hanging on the wall of his office. My respect to you for measuring up.

Mac



Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 8:12:54 PM)

Dan,

Pearl would be tough. You left me level 9 forts and a decent garrison. He could try for the outlying islands and go for a siege, but I'd almost welcome the chance to engage the IJN in space like that. Not to say he won't do it, but I feel good if he does.

China and/or Russia do seem the most likely options.

Mac,

Welcome aboard, sir! I am looking forward to striking a blow for freedom with all those cool Allied toys.



SoliInvictus202 -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 9:16:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I am looking forward to striking a blow for freedom with all those cool Allied toys.


oh it gets better and better... - I have just reached January '44 for the first time in a PBEM - all of Hokkaido is mine - Tokyo, Osaka, Kobe, Yokohama and a few other cities see fire-bomb raids every night and 10 CVs and 6 CVLs are just cruising around between the Marianas and Formosa sinking ships as they move around, while I gather troops for the invasion of Japan proper! - IT IS SO MUCH FUN WITH ALL THOSE TROOPS; SHIPS and PLANES!!!! - and the thought that I have just started another game as Japanese simply scares the **** out of me [:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 9:33:24 PM)

Mac, thou art the gentleman. Gentleman Mac Linehan should be your name.

Thank you for the nice words. Q-Ball is a good guy. He's a Yankee, though, and that entails a certain level of peculiarity that all Yankees must overcome. [:D]

Cribtop, I'm glad I left Pearl in decent condition!.

Edited to make the King James English work better. Since Yankees are going to read this, I wanted it to flow smoothly and will all the eloquence for which we southerners are known. Got that, y'all?



Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/17/2011 10:12:32 PM)

Mac, I share your high opinion of CanoeRebel. Stand up man, he is.

SoliInvictus, fear not for your Japan game, for you shall have the full size version of your thumbnail image to get you through the hard times of the late game!



John 3rd -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 12:03:54 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Mac, I share your high opinion of CanoeRebel. Stand up man, he is.

SoliInvictus, fear not for your Japan game, for you shall have the full size version of your thumbnail image to get you through the hard times of the late game!


Thoroughly agree on CR!

Japan is INVINCIBLE every game! BANZAI!
[sm=00000036.gif]



Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 2:37:41 AM)

First replay in the books. Nothing happened due to the truce except that Diego Garcia falls to the Allies. The game began in mid-invasion so there was really no choice other than to finish this fight. Banzai! Err, Hip, Hip, Hooray! Methinks the next liberation won't come so easily.



Hektor -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 12:47:18 PM)

Since this is my first post here let me just say that although I do not post at all I am at this and was at old Pacific war forum from the times when orignal PacWar was relased back in 90's.
I folow some of those threads and have also playing experience although do not post - I simply cannot be regular so decide not to.
Because there is interesting strategic discussion going here I thought I will add some into this if You are willing to read:)

Firstly Nemo is not much better  in playing skills than majority of You but he has two adventages: he plays with strategic goal in mind and more importantly he plays game engine and not  simulation.
In order to beat him one simply has to change his mindset from playing simulation into playing game engine.
So forget everything You read about Pacific War - it causes You to think in terms of simulating real war while You are going to play GAME.
One example to illustrate this. From history You know that kamikaze were in reality very inefficient and largely destroyed by cap. It is not the same here. Game engine allows for planes to penetrate cap easily. Most people attempt to play with some historical beliefs of what is possible in game. Instead of following historical observations read game manual and make tests on game mechanics.

Now to the stratgy.
You must set strategic objective. Your aim is to win. You achive this by destroying Japanese capability to conduct war. Japan in order to defend needs: navy, army, planes. In my opinion only planes matter in this game. When You destroy Japanese player ability to build planes You win. To destroy planes You have to kill plane production (not planes in air combat!) :
a) kill HI - not possible now because HI concentrations are beyond Your range. In time they will be in range but than Nemo will have sufficient Hi stockpiled to last him for later months of the war
b) kill plane factories (similar logic as in a)
But there is one commodity that Japan always needs and destroying its supply will destroy Japan's capability to produce planes (and pilots), it is
c) fuel

So Your strategic goal is fuel.
You deny fuel to Japan by:
a) concentrating all Your subs (except some picket ships) on tanker routes only. When sub hits merchant not tanker I would say it is loss of torpedo.
b) create small naval raider groups based around destroyers and raid into Java sea to intercept tankers. Loss of destroyers is irrelevant if You can kill tankers.
c) identify fuel hubs and hit them with mines/air raids
d) Establish air bases that allow for strategic bombing of fuel centers. This is more difficult because Nemo is likly to close any single airbase. So You must simultanously land on 4-5 islands/bases to provide mutual support it could be achieved but probably not now.
d) invade Sumatra - the plan is ready and assets are in place. Now it is very likly Nemo has reinforced Sumatra but it does not really matter. There is no better maskirovka for invasion of Sumatra than failed invasion of Sumatra.To make it workable You need big scale DECEPTION operation:
1) You  invade Sumatra now with insufficient assets (Nemo  sees that this is feint which it is and will start looking for Your real aim)
2) Now You have to provide him with this aim - deteach partial units from Your main reserves (from all important divisions!) prep them for something on Pacific side and start shipping to the Pacific Make sure You ship them through sealines  on which Japanese submarines operate. This together with sigint will convince Nemo that You made feint in Sumatra and You are shifting to the Pacific.
3) Start moves which will look like concentration of fleet for Pacific invasion
4) Launch real Sumatra invasion



Just throwing in some ideas. But most importantly to win the game (NOT SIMULATION) you concentrate ALL your actions on achieving strategic goal only. In real war this is of course not possible but again You are not simulating war You are coping with game engine which allows for many actions not plausible in reality so You do not bend this game to the reality (as many players wrongly do) but the other way (as for instance Nemo does).


Hektor




Erkki -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 1:25:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hektor

2) Now You have to provide him with this aim - deteach partial units from Your main reserves (from all important divisions!) prep them for something on Pacific side and start shipping to the Pacific Make sure You ship them through sealines  on which Japanese submarines operate. This together with sigint will convince Nemo that You made feint in Sumatra and You are shifting to the Pacific.



Welcome to forums! However, this part is not required. Japanese SIGINT sucks. He gets like 4 lines of "radio activity detected at hex" per turn - - and thats it! Theres a bigger chance to get those radio activity reports from high concentrations of troops and ships(so one is like to get 1 from Sydney, 1 fromPH and 1 from SF/LA a turn) or so. Its possible to get one for ships at sea but it takes huge number of ships, a full invasion fleet. Empty ships might work just as well, just show some APAs and landing ships with them and not just xAKLs...



Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 3:42:23 PM)

Wow, Hektor, great post! Glad to see this thread is causing some de-lurking. You are spot on - Nemo plays the game engine and thus so must I. Superb thoughts on how to handle the basic dilemma of how to attack Sumatra when Nemo knows I'm set to attack Sumatra. I think between your post, Alfred's advice and all the help from numerous other posters and PM'ers I'm starting to come up with a plan.



soticrandy -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 4:58:58 PM)

Thunder run into Tokyo Bay.

He would least expect that.



Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 5:58:33 PM)

Scratch the whole thread, I'm closing it down and going with soticrandy's plan! [:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 6:34:47 PM)

Hektor's post makes for very interesting and insightful reading. (I have to say, though, that when somebody who is obvioiusly very familiar with the game suddenly shows up on the forums with a very current "sign on" date, it makes me wonder if the person is actually one of our regulards showing up in disguise with a manufactured bio to try to throw us off. This isn't meant to say that Hektor isn't exactly what he says he is, but I nevertheless I can't help but wonder. You know: Is Hektor actually Alfred? Is he me? Nah, not me! Is he Chickenboy or Bullwinkle or PaxMondo or herwin or any of a zillion other people?) [:)]

I agree with Hektor's analysis that fuel is crtiical to Japan's health, but there is an achille's heal that is more obvious and more susceptible to Allied operations early in the game: capital ships, espeicaly cruisers, but also of course battleshhips and fleet carriers. Japan only has 18 cruisers in the game. KNock of few of those out and Japan suddenly has difficulty drawing escorts for carrier and bombardment TFs. Continue to whittle those capital shps and suddenly Japan has difficulty stopping the invasions or carrier strikes that put the Allies in better range to deal with the enemy fuel LOC and factories more efficiently.

Nemo will commit his capital ships in bold offensive actions or in critical defensive situations. Figuring out how to entice him into a battle on terms as favorable to the Allies as possible might be Job One for an Allied player.



Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 6:38:54 PM)

To sythesize Hektor and Dan, I tend to agree with Nemo's premise that Japan should seek airframe attrition, while the Allies should seek naval attrition. I plan to seek operational level naval attrition while trying to kill fuel on the strategic level as the means of dealing with Japan's air force long term.



DOCUP -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 7:26:13 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

To sythesize Hektor and Dan, I tend to agree with Nemo's premise that Japan should seek airframe attrition, while the Allies should seek naval attrition. I plan to seek operational level naval attrition while trying to kill fuel on the strategic level as the means of dealing with Japan's air force long term.




What is it that Nemo says about a plan. If it can't be said in 2 or 3 sentences its to complex and will not work. Something like that. Good solid plan thats workable. I like it.

[image]local://upfiles/35564/9877A17ED1BF41DFADC5B201A02DBBDC.jpg[/image]

EDIT: Sorry for the size



Cribtop -> RE: Depth Charging the Nautilus - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/18/2011 8:11:25 PM)

Love the A Team reference!

Ok, now we have a decent strategic level plan. Objective 1 - destroy the IJN via favorable attrition. Objective 1a - destroy the IJ air forces by destroying fuel sources and access to fuel sources. End stage will see operational advance to within bombing and fighter range of the Home Islands to reduce Japan's industry to ash.

Operationally, we will push on several levels to enact a form of the Hektor plan. Primary intention is to move 4Es within range of DEI oil/fuel sources, Palembang chief among them but eventually Borneo and Java depots as well. This will be combined with a convincing SWPAC thrust, feints in various theaters, and aggressive raiding.

Thanks, gents. Here we go!



DOCUP -> RE: Depth Charging the Nautilus - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/19/2011 5:17:03 AM)

What about the oil in China?  I don't know if it's enough to run his HI?



Graymane -> RE: Depth Charging the Nautilus - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/19/2011 12:55:07 PM)

Can you take some time to summarize the situation on the map by region? I'm wondering where your major forward bases are and how vulnerable the SLOCs into them are.



Olorin -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/19/2011 3:09:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
(I have to say, though, that when somebody who is obvioiusly very familiar with the game suddenly shows up on the forums with a very current "sign on" date, it makes me wonder if the person is actually one of our regulards showing up in disguise with a manufactured bio to try to throw us off. This isn't meant to say that Hektor isn't exactly what he says he is, but I nevertheless I can't help but wonder. You know: Is Hektor actually Alfred? Is he me? Nah, not me! Is he Chickenboy or Bullwinkle or PaxMondo or herwin or any of a zillion other people?) [:)]


I have the same suspicion...
Could he be Cribtop offering advice to himself? We are probably paranoid and he is really Hektor though.

Btw, good luck Cribtop [:'(]





princep01 -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/19/2011 3:44:07 PM)

Hektor is bogus. I know....I killed Hektor before the walls of Troy.

Achilles



Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (10/19/2011 4:40:40 PM)

I'll try to summarize the situation soon, but it may take until the weekend before I get to this request.

Hektor's status is intriguing, but not even I am indirect enough to post advice to myself. However, as long as it isn't Nemo I think it's pretty good advice. [:'(] IMHO Hektor's plan gives an operationally sound method to implement Alfred's suggestion to stay the course.



John 3rd -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (11/4/2011 5:55:32 AM)

How are thing coming here Mr. Cribtop?



Cribtop -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (11/4/2011 6:13:58 AM)

Good question - thanks for asking. We both agreed that the first week of the game, which is a cease fire period, would go VERY slowly. We've each done a few turns and I feel like I've got a handle on things. Nemo warned me this turn would be glacial as he has to sort out the economy to his liking. I expect after that the game will pick up a bit. It will never be fast, but we'll probably do 3 turns a week.

I will maintain this AAR, but it will be strictly for headlines and requests for advice rather than a daily chronicle.



John 3rd -> RE: Prepared to take a beating - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls) (11/4/2011 4:27:25 PM)

Thanks and Good Luck!



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