Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (Full Version)

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wadortch -> Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 1:28:33 AM)

Hello.

For those who expressed an interest in testing an Optional Sudden Death (SD), here is one to try.
As stated in several threads the idea is to create an incentive that will foster more historical play--especially the tenacious fighting over territory that both sides exhibited.

Joel has indicated that 2x3 will be willing to code such an optional rule (or a modified one based on testing of this one) if such "gets some traction."

I really do hope that there is no repeat of the postings by those who do not support such a rule for the variety of reasons previously expressed.

This posting is to provide something to players who expressed an interest in trying out such a rule for the variety of reasons such players expressed support for it.

There are two attachments. One, the proposed optional rule itself, and two the map on which the point totals were developed. NOTE that it is not the map lines that drive the SD VP calculation, rather any combination of city, light urban or heavy urban hexes plus the national capitol bonus described in Section 24.1.1 that trigger the SD win.

Last, this clearly is a GAME rule, not a description of the victory conditions for a perfect simulation of the War in the East. Please regard it in that light.

The Optional Rule:

A "sudden death (SD)" victory is achieved if a victory point total amassed by the German player equals or exceeds the total shown below at the end of the Soviet turn the last turn of March in 1942, 1943 or 1944. For example, if the German VP total is equal to or greater than 243 points at the end of the Soviet turn the last week of March, Germany wins a SD victory. If it is equal to or less than 194 points the Soviet player wins a SD victory.

Victory points are awarded based on the point values shown in Section 24.1.1 of the WITE manual.

SD Victory Conditions

End March 42 - => 243 Germany wins, =< 194 Russian wins
End March 43 - => 261 Germany wins, =< 189 Russian wins
End March 44 - => 213 Germany wins, =< 163 Russian wins

Map Key

The attached map was used to establish the VP totals shown above as it reflects in a "landscape" way the scope of advance needed to achieve a SD victory. However, the VP total needed to achieve a SD victory is INDEPENDENT of the Map Lines, meaning any combination of occupied VP hexes that achieves the VP total needed for the SD win, triggers the win.

Red line German 3/42 Win
Dark Blue line Soviet 3/42 Win

Red line plus Orange line German 3/43 Win
Dark Blue line plus light Blue line Soviet 3/43 Win

Yellow line German 3/44 Win
Green line Soviet 3/44 Win

Constructive comments or questions are welcomed.



DTurtle -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 2:14:36 AM)

Where is the map?



wadortch -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 2:31:19 AM)

Here's the map I hope.


[image]local://upfiles/37896/C8624D5D1A4842648FD47CCBAE333346.jpg[/image]



Baelfiin -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 3:23:48 AM)

For the rules lawyers:

Does the orange line include Baku or does it stop at Makhachkala? 8)



wadortch -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 3:34:38 AM)

Baku.



invernomuto -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 8:23:54 AM)

Very interesting, now we need to test it [:)].



wizzo62 -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 11:55:11 AM)

And the 2d attachment? " . . the proposed optional rule itself, . . "



Oskkar -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 1:20:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: wizzo62

And the 2d attachment? " . . the proposed optional rule itself, . . "


It is already included in the opening post


"The Optional Rule:

A "sudden death (SD)" victory is achieved if a victory point total amassed by the German player equals or exceeds the total shown below at the end of the Soviet turn the last turn of March in 1942, 1943 or 1944. For example, if the German VP total is equal to or greater than 243 points at the end of the Soviet turn the last week of March, Germany wins a SD victory. If it is equal to or less than 194 points the Soviet player wins a SD victory.

Victory points are awarded based on the point values shown in Section 24.1.1 of the WITE manual.

SD Victory Conditions

End March 42 - => 243 Germany wins, =< 194 Russian wins
End March 43 - => 261 Germany wins, =< 189 Russian wins
End March 44 - => 213 Germany wins, =< 163 Russian wins "



pzgndr -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 1:33:15 PM)

quote:

SD Victory Conditions
End March 42 - => 243 Germany wins, =< 194 Russian wins
End March 43 - => 261 Germany wins, =< 189 Russian wins
End March 44 - => 213 Germany wins, =< 163 Russian wins


These appear reasonable. They provide both players incentive to fight hard. A couple suggestions would be to consider November victory conditions also, and if implemented to revise the automatic victory to allow players to continue play if desired.



invernomuto -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 2:19:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: pzgndr

quote:

SD Victory Conditions
End March 42 - => 243 Germany wins, =< 194 Russian wins
End March 43 - => 261 Germany wins, =< 189 Russian wins
End March 44 - => 213 Germany wins, =< 163 Russian wins


These appear reasonable. They provide both players incentive to fight hard. A couple suggestions would be to consider November victory conditions also, and if implemented to revise the automatic victory to allow players to continue play if desired.


Agreed



wadortch -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 3:22:58 PM)

We thought about a November check but felt that the Axis push for the win had to be premised on holding the VP sites through the winter to prevent a "wreck the army" offensive to secure the SD win. Also the rule is intended to discourage a run away strategy by either side which a November check would not address. Axis need to arrive at the VP combination with an army capable of defending them.



pzgndr -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 4:09:16 PM)

quote:

We thought about a November check but felt that the Axis push for the win had to be premised on holding the VP sites through the winter to prevent a "wreck the army" offensive to secure the SD win. Also the rule is intended to discourage a run away strategy by either side which a November check would not address. Axis need to arrive at the VP combination with an army capable of defending them.


True, but the same could be said about the Soviet player overextending himself to secure a SD win following the winter counter-offensives? That's one reason the old games had both November and March checks.

Regardless, having a March check provides an ongoing challenge through 1942, 1943 and 1944 for both players and that's the important thing. [&o]



johnnyvagas -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 5:15:13 PM)

Looks reasonable.  I'll try to test it via PBEM or a server game after Xmas vacation.  I just had another of my PBEM partners mysteriously disappear from the radar screen and should have room in my schedule to pick up another game in a week or two.  I will test the auto victory conditions and report back to this thread. 
An aside, but I don’t think at this point it’s even necessary to have both players agree to these house rules for a particular game.  People that want to test the conditions but can’t necessarily get an opponent to buy into the house rules can simply play and report back to this thread their ability as the Russians or Germans to achieve the various goals detailed on the above maps.  I think that sort of information would also be valuable to the play testing of these house rules.    



Cavalry Corp -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 5:22:01 PM)

In one AAR pretty much the Red line was taken in 41-42 but the Russians are still winning?



johnnyvagas -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/20/2011 6:36:57 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: cavalry

In one AAR pretty much the Red line was taken in 41-42 but the Russians are still winning?


probably more like a comment along the lines of: "In a PBEM I'm playing I pretty much took everything west of the Red line on the 1st week of September, 1941".



wadortch -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/21/2011 12:59:51 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: johnnyvagas

Looks reasonable.  I'll try to test it via PBEM or a server game after Xmas vacation.  I just had another of my PBEM partners mysteriously disappear from the radar screen and should have room in my schedule to pick up another game in a week or two.  I will test the auto victory conditions and report back to this thread. 
An aside, but I don’t think at this point it’s even necessary to have both players agree to these house rules for a particular game.  People that want to test the conditions but can’t necessarily get an opponent to buy into the house rules can simply play and report back to this thread their ability as the Russians or Germans to achieve the various goals detailed on the above maps.  I think that sort of information would also be valuable to the play testing of these house rules.    


This is something I wanted to mention and you hit on it. Be great if players can report where they are with VP's at the check points whether or not they are using the rule.





wadortch -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/21/2011 1:07:39 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: pzgndr

quote:

We thought about a November check but felt that the Axis push for the win had to be premised on holding the VP sites through the winter to prevent a "wreck the army" offensive to secure the SD win. Also the rule is intended to discourage a run away strategy by either side which a November check would not address. Axis need to arrive at the VP combination with an army capable of defending them.


True, but the same could be said about the Soviet player overextending himself to secure a SD win following the winter counter-offensives? That's one reason the old games had both November and March checks.

Regardless, having a March check provides an ongoing challenge through 1942, 1943 and 1944 for both players and that's the important thing. [&o]

You are right. Perhaps the fix, if that occurs would be to require Soviet Player to hold a VP site for one turn prior to the VP check date for it to count. More coding if that ever happens but does not seem that complicated.



Peltonx -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/21/2011 7:12:56 AM)

On October 3rd 1941 when Orel fell to the Germans, Stalin's Sercutiy Cheif Lavrenty Pavlovich Beria who had contacts in the west was told by Stalin to make use of them.

In the words of Zhukov who was at the meeting, Stalin instructed Beria " to sound out the possibilities of making a separate peace with Germany given the criticail situation."

A week after Beria was told to see what could be done to come to terms wih Hitler the streets of Moscow exploded in a series of riots that griped the city for days as terrified citizens, including officails and party members, tried to seize whatever they could and flee.

Over the next few weeks Stalin hesitated between surender and resistance, as well as whether to abandon Moscow.

By October 19th the overtures were made for peace to Hitler, but he rejected them at which point Stalin realized that he had no chioce but to keep fighting.

I see the Sudden Death Rule as totally historical, but as only a minor victory for German or even a draw.

The Germans were winning the war of atrition through 41 into 42 as can clearly be seen by Russian losses through early 1943.

Red Army Losses
---------------- Killed+Wounded KIA+Missing
1st Quarter 1942 1,800,000 620,000
2nd Quarter 1942 1,500,000 780,000
3rd Quarter 1942 2,400,000 1,140,000
4th Quarter 1942 1,390,000 456,000
1st Quarter 1943 2,077,000 656,000

RA Tanks losses for the whole 1942: 15,000
RA Aircraft losses for 1942: 12,000

May 1942 Red Army frontlines strength: ~ 6,000,000 (includes wounded)
Wehrmacht+German Allies: 3,600,000

If Moscow had fallen there can be no dought Stalin would have gone "missing" as did close to 20 million Russians by his hands during his reign of terror of his own poeple.

In hind sight Hitler should have at least talked with Stalin and then turned him down or made the deal so hard Stalin would have not taken it.

Then he could have used the info agianst Stalin, but Hitler I am guessing figured he could easly have won the war in 42.

Pelton




alfonso -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/21/2011 8:49:22 AM)

There are claims that as early as around June 26th 1941, Stalin ordered Beria to seek an armistice through the Bulgarian ambassador in Moscow.

Therefore I suggest that after the Axis has completed its FIRST turn, there should be a random dice roll to determine if the war ends already with a Soviet defeat.

STOP
[IRONIC MODE OFF]



janh -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/21/2011 9:58:12 AM)

Can't recall anyone before writing about a real attempt to contact the Nazi regime and officially offer an armistice.  I read somewhere that indeed sometime in the first few weeks some General(s?) approached Stalin given the dire situation, but was brushed aside.  Rather unimaginable to think of such an early ending, which would be victory and loss at the same time.  Would surely only have delayed the inevitable conflict, which later might have been fought with much more devastating weapons.

One thing is striking, though, with the number Pelton gives.  Sum them up, and you already have almost ~10M KIA, WOU, and MIA just for 1.25 years. Assuming 30% of them are KIA, that would already rather high compared to most "total estimates" presented by Eastern as well as Western studies of all origins.  Even if you consider Glantz value of 29M K/W/M, which is presented rather as guesstimate than well supported (Ref. 96).  Unfortunately I don't have that book to see for myself how valuable that number is.
Doesn't matter anyway where he got those numbers from, it was the Germans who first were scraping the bottom of the barrel, man-power and air-power wise, as early as spring 44.  I wouldn't call that winning a war of attrition...  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties_of_the_Soviet_Union

Anyway, doesn't even matter whether there was talk about surrender or armisice.  Any "feature" adds to the game, whether many people use it or not.  See whether enough people go for this one, and then you can see whether G&G would see value in implementing it.  Or rather work on stuff more people bother about.  It might already work very well on paper as a houserule since no dice rules or anything are required.

I would it a lot more if the lines would trigger a random call with a small chance of an overthrow, armistice, or say a regime collapse or whatever.  I don't consider it historical, but then I am a harsh realist.  And after all, it is just a game, but this would give a deeper sense to fight for certain goals, rather risk creating an ant race with this rule.  Say a 5% chance every turn that the criteria are fulfilled, so calculated after 15 turns you'd have a chance of 50% to getting the benefit, further growing.  But not a 100% chance, not another "I win" button.  The criteria for a 100% victory are set anyway.



invernomuto -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/21/2011 1:38:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: wadortch
This is something I wanted to mention and you hit on it. Be great if players can report where they are with VP's at the check points whether or not they are using the rule.


I'm on turn 8 in my PBEM as russian. Still a long way to go but I'll report VPs at the end of march.




gradenko2k -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/21/2011 2:56:19 PM)

I don't think historicity is part of the point of this Sudden Death rule. It's almost certainly completely unacceptable in terms of known behavior to expect the Germans to throw down their arms if they don't reach a certain stop-line, nor is it believable for the Russians to stop fighting if the Germans take some arbitrary set of cities.

Rather, the point is to get the players to tailor their gameplay in certain ways, since strictly abiding by historical politics combined with player hindsight of military and industrial realities will otherwise shape the meta-game towards behaviors that are just as ahistorical as an early surrender - such as the Germans treating Russian territory only as a buffer between the Red Army and Berlin, or the Russians avoiding a stand-up fight in a majority of occasions.



alfonso -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/21/2011 5:59:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton


The Germans were winning the war of atrition through 41 into 42 as can clearly be seen by Russian losses through early 1943.

Red Army Losses
---------------- Killed+Wounded KIA+Missing
1st Quarter 1942 1,800,000 620,000
2nd Quarter 1942 1,500,000 780,000
3rd Quarter 1942 2,400,000 1,140,000
4th Quarter 1942 1,390,000 456,000
1st Quarter 1943 2,077,000 656,000

Pelton




In this period in which the Soviet Union was "clearly losing" the attrition war the Red Army strength increased from 2,818,500 (1941 4th Quarter) to 6,459,800 (1943 2nd Quarter)

Source: Glantz and House, "When titans clashed", Appendix, Table A. The same source shows the very same losses shown by Pelton (for instance, 1st Quarter 1943 656,000 killed or missing; 2,077,000 is the TOTAL (including wounded and sick). Maybe he forgot to mention the first column of that Table A (average strength).

Table C in that book shows that the strength ratio Soviet:Axis was 1.34:1 in March 1942 and 1.68:1 in April 1943



Aurelian -> RE: Optional Sudden Death Rule Available for Testing (12/21/2011 9:46:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: alfonso


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton


The Germans were winning the war of atrition through 41 into 42 as can clearly be seen by Russian losses through early 1943.

Red Army Losses
---------------- Killed+Wounded KIA+Missing
1st Quarter 1942 1,800,000 620,000
2nd Quarter 1942 1,500,000 780,000
3rd Quarter 1942 2,400,000 1,140,000
4th Quarter 1942 1,390,000 456,000
1st Quarter 1943 2,077,000 656,000

Pelton




In this period in which the Soviet Union was "clearly losing" the attrition war the Red Army strength increased from 2,818,500 (1941 4th Quarter) to 6,459,800 (1943 2nd Quarter)

Source: Glantz and House, "When titans clashed", Appendix, Table A. The same source shows the very same losses shown by Pelton (for instance, 1st Quarter 1943 656,000 killed or missing; 2,077,000 is the TOTAL (including wounded and sick). Maybe he forgot to mention the first column of that Table A (average strength).

Table C in that book shows that the strength ratio Soviet:Axis was 1.34:1 in March 1942 and 1.68:1 in April 1943


Don't bring facts into it. :)

Russia "lost" the "war of attrition" all the way to the Reichstag.

Go figure...



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