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janh -> RE: The Future (5/28/2012 4:04:18 PM)
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Exciting to see your degree of success in OZ. Lew really was caught off-guard. His commitment of AUS ID to the Darwin-Katherine area was too-early-too-much in retrospect, yet I think the Carrier battle of Cocos Island on March 4-5th was at least equally important. The >= 2 IDs stuck there now could have been troubles if Lew contemplated to move them to OZ, and the numerous Allied carriers ending damaged/sunk could have caused trouble on the Western OZ flank and kept the reinforcement route to India open. That battle, and the earlier carrier clash near Java might have been very crucial in the end?
quote:
ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Planning--Options:
A. New Zealand.
B. Suva-Nadi:
C. Cocos:
D. Line Islands
Regarding your ideas, I concur with ny59giants, and let NZ alone. More industry sounds nice, but in the end not resources or HI will be limiting you, but oil/fuel (and perhaps supplies). I would nonetheless try to create a credible threat to NZ, just to keep Lew off-guard. Maybe prep the units planned to garrison OZ for a few credible strike targets, so Lew gets plenty of wrong intel. If I were him, I would now be rather nervous about more surprise landings. I would be reinforcing islands at the perimeter and NZ, but refrain from a hasty counter-offensive.
Cocos should probably be doable with 2 ID as the Allies there will hopefully be starving already. Maybe you could even bypass them until later, since these waters should now be safe to travel into 43, and having ID stranded there might force Lew to do some (daring) mistakes.
I would rank Line Islands highest. They are a perfect staging ground for raiders, subs, Betties and also to recon Hawaii. As far as I can see it, no Allied player could bypass them in an attack via CENTPAC or SOEPac without keeping a very severe threat in his flank. Perhaps it is a sure invitation for another carrier battle, and one offering the IJN good LBA staging bases while Hawaii is a long way for Allied air assets. Do you have any actual intel on units and air assets staged there? Until Wasp's appearance, you could count on CV superiority, which could render LI doable?
Suva-Nadi: Doing harm to his LCU and taking another big, unsinkable CV would be tempting, too. If you managed to take LI, the Fidjiis would be a longer route away from CONUSA, and perhaps, just perhaps, could become even more interesting. I have made bad experiences with Suva-Nadi, I found it very hard to defend against the Allies. Do you have a good idea what to expect there? Do you have intel on Pago-Pago?
Ceylon... well, fits the Burma complex, where I think I would try to draw you into an attritional battles until more Allied CVs come online. Ceylon is also a dirty thorn in the Allied side, but I think less so than the rest. It is probably also not doable so late anymore, and would require at least 6 ID and cost you a bunch of troop carriers. I'd recon it, or think about a quick CV raid on Colombo, though. Else, what are your further plans in Burma?
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