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notenome -> RE: Possible random weather bug (6/13/2012 2:50:28 PM)
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Just to clarify the math:
The probability of no mud in the 3 Soviet zones for one turn is .0398 or 4% (5/14 x 4/13 x 4/11= .357 x .307 x .364 = .0398). The probability of no mud for two straight turns is .00158 or 0.2% (.0398 x .0398 = .00158), so 1 in 500. This is assuming that the weather roles are independent variables.
If the game uses a single role as Flaviusx suspects, then the chance of no mud is the chance of the game roling 11-15 (.333) and 2 consecutive 11-15 would be 0.110889, or 11%. If that's how the weather determination works (single role) then my result would not be indicative of alarm.
However my next turn seems to disprove the single role theory. I got mud in the north and center and snow in the south. Looking at the weather table, in a single role this would be impossible, as center and north have a bigger modifier. If the game uses a single role, then this is a 100% guaranteed bug. If the game uses multiple roles then its either a bug or one hell of an outlier (1 in 500, as aforementioned). Considering in another AAR (Tulius's AAR IIRC) he went straight to snow as well, it seems this might very well be a bug.
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