Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (2/6/2013 6:52:37 PM)
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March 1, 1942 Big Brass Ones 1) Further evidence Ambon is important: Japan today shows a carrier TF of some kind SOUTH of the cloud of subs clogging the Makassar Strait. Vindicators, flying at extreme range in order to harrass ASW TFs, are jumped by fighters. Despite a combat report which shows three lost, in reality all eight in the flight are gone. The model is out of production. Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 63,99 Weather in hex: Partial cloud Raid spotted at 39 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 17 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 4 Ki-44 Tojo x 6 Allied aircraft SB2U-3 Vindicator x 8 No Japanese losses Allied aircraft losses SB2U-3 Vindicator: 3 destroyed CAP engaged: 47th I.F.Chutai with Ki-44 Tojo (6 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling) (6 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.) 6 plane(s) intercepting now. Group patrol altitude is 10000 Raid is overhead Chitose Ku S-1 Det with A6M2 Zero (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling) (4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.) 4 plane(s) intercepting now. Group patrol altitude is 9000 Raid is overhead I assume this TF is there to CAP the BBs at Ambon yesterday. If it stays I assume the BBs might be back. Staying is dangerous, but so were those subs it drove through. If it withdraws my best guess is not back north past the subs, but east past Kendari. I might be able to put assets in that path. 2) Ambon holds again. Ground combat at Ambon (76,109) Japanese Deliberate attack Attacking force 1374 troops, 19 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 47 Defending force 1412 troops, 22 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 34 Japanese adjusted assault: 30 Allied adjusted defense: 31 Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2) Combat modifiers Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), disruption(-) preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-) Attacker: Japanese ground losses: 51 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Allied ground losses: 39 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled 3) Singers supply, with combat LCUs on Replacements=Yes, and building Forts, still has over 20,000 supply. AV improves a bit again. Bombing lessens markedly, possibly due to extreme damage every day from AA, and what does come in is directed at the port and supply ships. Only one already in the yard is hit. The let-up on the AF allows 8% Forts 4 to be built in two days. The shift says he may not have a good answer to the Singers rock-paper-scissors. Supply has to stop, and actions in the PI show a preference for waiting until supply is gone to attack. OTOH, time is a factor. LCUs at Singers show 38 and 12 more at JB. To stop the supply runs he has to put max effort into naval strikes and not just the AF, and/or send in surface enforcers and risk my TBs and DBs. The longer Japan waits the more air power can come in from CT. But if he shifts the Netties to naval he lets up on the AF and forts progress back toward 4. 4) This has gone on long enough that Palembang is being pressured on supply production. It has no LI and depends on the refineries to throw off supply. But since Djambi has been lost the oil stocks are very low. I considered sending the British 18th Div up the road to eject the Japanese from Djambi, but they would be meat out on the roads. Instead I have several 40k to 50k pure supply convoys headed in from CT. They will dock at Oosthaven. The railroad to Palembang is still open. Unloading will be slow and I will lose some to spoilage, but it's doable. 5) Escorted Chinese bombers hit the stack just west of Tuang Gyi. I have blocked the road to its south and am moving Chinese corps down both hexsides to the NW and NE. The AVG bombs and strafes (they have excellent strafe ratings) the LCUs headed cross-country for Akyab. There are several attacks; this is an example: Morning Air attack on 15th Guards Regiment, at 58,48 , near Magwe Weather in hex: Overcast Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 7 minutes Allied aircraft P-40E Warhawk x 7 Allied aircraft losses P-40E Warhawk: 3 damaged Japanese ground losses: 38 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Aircraft Attacking: 7 x P-40E Warhawk bombing from 100 feet Ground Attack: 1 x 500 lb GP Bomb Also attacking 6th Tank Regiment ... Also attacking 15th Guards Regiment ... 6) Two raids on Samarinda oil yield 1 Oil damage point. It's not much, but these raids do add up over time, as well as demand engineer committment to repair. 7) SS Grayback attacks a convoy in the Sea of Japan. No hits, but they are regular as a train through here. The dice will work eventually. More subs headed to the HI. 8) At Cagayan the Allies do a probing attack with one LCU to test the make-up of the stack in the hex. Debating making an all-out attempt to force some retreats before the base is starved out. It has Forts 3, and that's a lot to give up, but time is not on its side either. This is the correlation of forces. The P.I. units have some organic supply each. The base is about zeroed. Assaulting units: 3rd PA Constabulary Regiment 2nd/101st PA Battalion 103rd PA Infantry Regiment 1st /101st PA Battalion 3rd/101st PA Battalion 102nd PA Infantry Regiment 102nd PA Infantry Division Cagayan USAAF Base Force III Philippine Corps Defending units: 146th Infantry Regiment 82nd Naval Guard Unit 9) After much thought and visualization of buyer's remorse, I let Lex and Saratoga go into upgrade cycle at San Diego. The UNDERDOG twin carriers should be enough by themselves, Hornet arrives in ten days, and the Lex/Sara duo really need that first upgrade to be competitive IMO. I hope it was a good decision.
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