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Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (1/2/2014 8:30:51 PM)
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Through September 24th, 1942
An update. Format will be ad hoc for these.
We got a number of turns in over the holidays as the date confirms. Two major events occurred, and a number of smaller things. The majors were the failure of the Allied attack in Burma and a stiff defeat at sea there, and success in the bombing campaign on Truk.
1) Burma/Operation MUTTLEY
The map in the post above shows the pre-attack position of the forces. There were two prongs to this phase. A deliberate attack at both Moulmein and Pegu with a Hold at Rangoon, and a naval raid up the river into Rangoon harbor to attempt to disrupt/attrit the supply effort there. This raid was to be covered by the Wasp TF coming in from the west in the terminal river phase, and by LRCAP as it came down the coast. On the last day before commit I saw the DL on the raiders spike to 9/9. I should have listened.
Land Attacks 9/17/42
A) Pegu: more hope of success here given the new, large influx of fresh Chinese troops and perceived lack of artillery from previous recons. Forts were unknown as was supply. But supply supposed not too low given the sea-supply effort. The attack failed with large losses.
Ground combat at Pegu (55,53)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 106390 troops, 709 guns, 174 vehicles, Assault Value = 4136
Defending force 80323 troops, 749 guns, 254 vehicles, Assault Value = 2711
Allied adjusted assault: 2290
Japanese adjusted defense: 6724
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)
Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker:
Japanese ground losses:
1658 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 54 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 32 disabled
Guns lost 19 (1 destroyed, 18 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
24688 casualties reported
Squads: 485 destroyed, 1157 disabled
Non Combat: 90 destroyed, 340 disabled
Engineers: 48 destroyed, 115 disabled
Guns lost 153 (51 destroyed, 102 disabled)
Vehicles lost 59 (33 destroyed, 26 disabled)
Units destroyed 1
Assaulting units:
12th Chinese Corps
15th Chinese Corps
69th Chinese Corps
17th Indian Division
87th Chinese Corps
74th Chinese Corps
42nd Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Cavalry Corps
30th Chinese Corps
56th Chinese Corps
3rd Carabiniers Regiment
27th Chinese Corps
46th Indian Brigade
21st Chinese Corps
42nd Cavalry Regiment
83rd Chinese Corps
50th Chinese Corps
98th Chinese Corps
8th New Chinese Corps
25th Chinese Corps
7th New Chinese Corps
46th Chinese Corps
5th Chinese Corps
5th Chinese Cavalry Corps
Red Chinese Army
34th Group Army
89th Chinese Corps
4th War Area
11th Chinese Base Force
Defending units:
4th Guards Division
15th Division
6th Guards Division
9th Division
12th Division
5th Guards Division
48th Road Const Co
55th Const Co
B) Moulmein: this attack was seen as more risky as the LCUs were weak except for the Aussie 7th. But the defenders were also seen as more beat up from previous attacks. As a few of the supply TFs had been seen docking here supply was assumed to be good. The attack also failed with high losses.
Ground combat at Moulmein (55,55)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 110361 troops, 927 guns, 513 vehicles, Assault Value = 2442
Defending force 55231 troops, 502 guns, 206 vehicles, Assault Value = 1588
Allied adjusted assault: 1836
Japanese adjusted defense: 8019
Allied assault odds: 1 to 4 (fort level 3)
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:
Japanese ground losses:
512 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 141 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 18 (1 destroyed, 17 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
11844 casualties reported
Squads: 601 destroyed, 549 disabled
Non Combat: 35 destroyed, 374 disabled
Engineers: 38 destroyed, 68 disabled
Guns lost 152 (42 destroyed, 110 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (1 destroyed, 13 disabled)
Assaulting units:
65th Chinese Corps
48th Chinese Corps
85th Chinese Corps
37th Chinese Corps
84th Chinese Corps
82nd Chinese Corps
20th Chinese Corps
39th Indian Division
71st Chinese Corps
90th Chinese Corps
59th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
77th Chinese Corps
29th Chinese Corps
53rd Chinese Corps
7th Australian Division
254th Armoured Brigade
3rd New Chinese Corps
24th Group Army
7th Group Army
33rd Group Army
Defending units:
24th Infantry Regiment
1st RTA/B Division
110th Division
57th Division
2nd Tank Regiment
38th Division
13th Ind.Mixed Brigade
16th Infantry Rgt /1
50th Field AA Battalion
22nd Field AA Machinecannon Company
3rd Provisional Base Force
1st Provisional Base Force
Since the 17th the situation on land in Burma has been static. No Japanese follow-on attacks have occurred. Back-up forces have moved into Prome and a small force has moved to re-take Bassein (which fell to land-based Rowboat Corps.) This should happen in the next two days. Supply in all three sieges is good, with most units in the green or very high red. The aggressive supply injections into Chittagong, and much less into Ramree, have managed to bridge much of the monsoon season. It is clear to me at this point in the war that there is insufficient armor and engineer support to take any of these bases unless supplies inside can be reduced to zero. As this is unlikely the Allies will return to a sitting posture.
Strategically, the Allied forces involved have no better job to do right now. There is not enough air power or transport to move deeper into Indo-China even if the Vietnamese militia activation were ignored. Burma continues to be an Allied playground except for these three coastal bases. All oil is in Allied hands.
The supply situation for Japan is somewhat tenuous. Rangoon still has its LI, but has no oil for refinery supply, and Resource production is stopped due to hex occupation. Very small strat bombing attempts (2-3 4Es) have been tried both in day and night modes, but Rangoon's AF is stacked with over 130 fighters and about as many bombers. These were the target of the denied naval raid described next. But supply is the key, and it has largely managed to get in. FAA TBs are on Port Blair along with USA 2E bombers with hand-picked naval attack pilots. These can cover almost all the way to the coastal approaches to the two harbors, (Rangoon/Moulmein.) But without fighters they almost never fly. When they have they have scored hits. To support them about a dozen subs are on the coastline in pure coastal zones. Mike has said in email they are driving him crazy. Hard ASW pummels them, but so far have only sunk one. To be sure the top twelve most-damaged Allied ships at sea are all subs right now, so there is a steady shuttle to Colombo's yard for a patch and then back to the coast. More USN fleet boats are being sent via CT as they come on line. US Army 4Es could probably break the stalemate at Rangoon's AF, but they are at Rabaul hitting Truk, a more valuable target in terms of winning the game and war. As torpedoes improve, if the stalemate lasts that long, I expect the supply situation to be more critical. Japan has about 350,000 men in these three bases. I don't know what happens if they decide to break out. Moulmein could get to the railroad to Tavoy I think, but the Rangoon stack is huge, full of premium units, and a long hike from salvation.
Raid On Rangoon 9/17/42 and after
The aborted raid on Rangoon was planned a month ago, with cruisers and DDs taking position at Calcutta. The plan was to progress down the coast in Coastal mode, using LRCAP from Ramree and Prome and an unexpected vector for Japanese searching. At the end a small CV TF consisting of USS Wasp (the two RN carriers in theater are in the yards at Colombo) would itself be covered by LRCAP from Port Blair (P-38s, Martlets) and would drive in from the west to four hexes, covering the raid as well as adding the air wing to attack in-port targets. Recon on Rangoon was excellent. Over 25 ships were in port, and the same cruiser/DD TF that has bombarded several times was in residence too. I was prepared to lose my TF in exchange for hammering the AF as well as some supply transports.
Two mistakes by me, plus very good search by him, and there was disaster.
My mistakes first. The raiders were put on Coastal mode to transit from just off Chittagong down the coast to then make the corner turn into Rangoon. They were to transit at Mission and go to Full speed for the attack turn. Hexes were counted. But the transit hung up, I think due to the Coastal variable, and the trip took three days. Even with Full sped ordered for the last two days the TF dwaddled, giving the Japanese a sold DL on them. As well, the Wasp was trolling around too close in for comfort, waiting for them. I finally cancelled the Coastal order and left them at Full, but it was too late. The Japanese came north to meet them.
The second mistake was in waypointing the Wasp incorrectly. It was too close in to use the night phase correctly. I needed to order it to backtrack back west in the night in order to do a 180 and come east to cover the raid/attack. Instead I screwed up and waypointed so it came east in the night, and was heading home and out of cover range when the raiders finally did come down the coast at Full. The carrier had no impact on the battle.
The results, in several phases. Japan hit with both a strong surface force as well as torpedo bombers to follow up.
Night Time Surface Combat, near Rangoon at 54,54, Range 8,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
CA Myoko, Shell hits 4
CA Furutaka, Shell hits 1, on fire
CL Natori
CL Yura
DD Shirakumo
DD Shirayuki
DD Uranami, Shell hits 1
DD Amagiri
DD Oboro
DD Akebono
DD Minazuki, Shell hits 1
DD Mikazuki
DD Matsukaze
DD Hatakaze
DD Asanagi
DD Yunagi
Allied Ships
CA Chester, Shell hits 5, on fire
CL Detroit
CLAA Van Heemskerck
DD O'Brien, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Witte de With
DD Stronghold, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Foxhound
DD Hotspur
DD Inconstant
Day Time Surface Combat, near Rangoon at 53,54, Range 24,000 Yards
Allied aircraft
no flights
Allied aircraft losses
SOC-1 Seagull: 2 destroyed
Japanese Ships
CA Myoko, Shell hits 9, on fire
CA Furutaka
CL Natori, Shell hits 1
CL Yura
DD Shirakumo, Shell hits 2
DD Shirayuki, Shell hits 1
DD Uranami, Shell hits 3
DD Amagiri
DD Oboro, Shell hits 2
DD Akebono, Shell hits 1
DD Minazuki, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Mikazuki, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Matsukaze
DD Hatakaze, Shell hits 1
DD Asanagi
DD Yunagi, Shell hits 1
Allied Ships
CA Chester, Shell hits 22, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CL Detroit, Shell hits 7, on fire
CLAA Van Heemskerck, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD O'Brien, Shell hits 16, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Witte de With, Shell hits 2
DD Foxhound, Shell hits 3
DD Hotspur, Shell hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Inconstant, Shell hits 3, on fire
Day Time Surface Combat, near Rangoon at 52,54, Range 24,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
CA Myoko, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Furutaka
CL Natori
CL Yura, Shell hits 1
DD Shirakumo
DD Shirayuki
DD Uranami
DD Amagiri
DD Oboro
DD Akebono
DD Minazuki, on fire
DD Mikazuki, heavy fires
DD Matsukaze, Shell hits 1
DD Hatakaze
DD Asanagi
DD Yunagi
Allied Ships
CL Detroit, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage
CLAA Van Heemskerck, Shell hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD O'Brien, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
DD Witte de With, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Foxhound, Shell hits 1, heavy damage
DD Hotspur, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
DD Inconstant, Shell hits 3, heavy fires
Morning Air attack on TF, near Rangoon at 52,54
Weather in hex: Severe storms
Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes
Japanese aircraft
G3M3 Nell x 9
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 30
Allied aircraft
Mohawk IV x 1
No Japanese losses
No Allied losses
Allied Ships
CL Detroit, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Witte de With, on fire
DD Foxhound, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
One heavily damaged DD made it away from this. Covered by LRCAP from Pt. Blair it made Colombo, where it is currently repairing. Two more torpedo attacks which would have sunk her were absorbed by an xAK unloading at Ramree (sunk) and an ASW TF near there, which was missed.
The IJN took some damage. A CA was seen entering Moulmein, where it promptly struck a mine. I have a sunk CA entry in the list with the wrong name. But it is very possible a CA went down. Still, a clear Japanese win as supply deliveries were not disrupted.
2) Bombing Truk
A good force of B-17s and B-24s now resides at Rabaul. PPs have been expended to put them all under the same air HQ, and coordination at extreme range has been excellent. No more than one unit has flown uncoordinated, and most days there are no stragglers. Succeeding B-17s models have less range than the previous, so some cannot make Truk or Ponape. They have been tasked with hitting northern NG for training. The Truk attacks, spaced to allow pilot rest as well as about an 80% availability rate on the bombers, have succeed in making Truk a very dangerous place to operate from in the autumn of 1942. CAP there is first-gen Zeroes, and they have been unable to do much. Raids have been about 40 planes, at 7000 and 9000 feet. Port has been the target.
Since Sept 8th:
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 24
Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 17
B-24D Liberator x 23
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 4 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 destroyed, 7 damaged
Japanese Ships
xAK Shinkoku Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Sawakaze, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAK Daihachikyo Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Fumizuki, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Natsushio, Bomb hits 1
xAK China Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
ACM Shofuku Maru #2, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AD Koshu Maru #2, Bomb hits 1, on fire
Japanese ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Port hits 2
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 29
Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 16
B-24D Liberator x 15
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 4 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 5 damaged
Japanese Ships
DD Sawakaze, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Yayoi, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAP Yoshino Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AMc Fumi Maru #2, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
DMS Sureko, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Natsushio, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Satsuki, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Cheribon Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAK Kuraido Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAK Kokuryu Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire
SS I-21, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
xAKL Heiwa Maru, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Takunan Maru #10, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Shinkoku Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAKL Genmei Maru, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
Japanese ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Port hits 8
Port fuel hits 1
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid spotted at 7 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 25
Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 3
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 2 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
Japanese Ships
xAK Kuraido Maru, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Noshiro Maru #2, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
DD Minekaze, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAK Nittai Maru, Bomb hits 1
DD Fumizuki, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAKL Ujigawa Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid spotted at 29 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 38
Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 16
B-24D Liberator x 27
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 4 damaged
Japanese Ships
SS RO-61, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
xAK Shinkoku Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS I-168, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
DD Sawakaze, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS I-175, Bomb hits 3, heavy damage
ARD Dublon ARD, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
Port hits 9
Port fuel hits 1
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid spotted at 35 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 38
Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 15
B-24D Liberator x 29
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 5 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 9 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 2 destroyed by flak
Japanese Ships
SS I-175, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Shinkoku Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
ARD Dublon ARD, and is sunk
Port hits 9
The loss of the ARD is, IMO, the biggest result from this series of attacks. I believe the next nearest yard for flooding repair is Manila, or the HI. I'm not sure of the OOB, but I think this may be the only ARD Japan has. If so that makes Truk severely reduced as a submarine base.
3)Other
A. Hollandia is being built up using mostly Kiwi forces. In progress.
B. PBang's forts have been building again as raids have lessened and some CAP has managed to take up residence now that the AF is repaired. Forts at 5 + 68%. Only one ID is seen at Lahat. It is bombed daily by the Dutch for light losses. A small cruiser TF has bombarded Benk twice and found it empty. This force is looking up the west coast at other bases to see if they are also empty. If so an off-shore AF will be attempted in the next few months.
C. Two small supply ships have snuck into Soerbaja this week. Java is mostly red, but Batavia and Merek hold out. Batavia is going to be the next source of some snuck supply if possible.
D. NorPac continues to build with strong bases at all major islands. The high-potential dot base just SE of the outermost island (S-something) has Seabees and is working on a fighter base. Only a few IJN subs have been seen. Mining operations at Para Jima and Toyahara have been completed. S-boats hunt inside the Kurile arc every day.
E. Eniwetok is almost to level 6 Forts and in good supply. Wake is stronger than it was, over-stacked with several USMC defence units as well and US Army infantry. 4E have been based there to harass Kwaj, but moved on the Rabaul. A strong surface TF led by BB SoDak is in residence, as well as TB and DBs. Have had sniffs of the KB toward Marcus, but it is not in sight now. My two PH carriers came west to lurk NE of Wake, but a sub found them; they are headed back to upgrade. I think Wake can handle itself for now. I hope. A move on Kwaj and Roi Namur is still planned. Ponape can be neutralized from Rabaul with 4Es when the time comes.
F. A Mid-Pac macro strategy continues to build. Lots of logistics. The fleet is in good repair east and west. Aircraft pools are slowly recovering from the Burma push. P-40Ks being swapped in. Some P-38s doing effective sweeps. Have not seen a lot of R&D results yet given we're playing non-historical. A few Tojo units and some second-gen Zeroes. But not hordes. I hope this means the 2E losses he's seen in Burma and Malaysia have hurt the HI stocks.
The next update will be when one is needed. Or in a month game time, whichever comes first.
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