RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/11/2013 9:55:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's the Butcher's Bill - all Allied ships lost in the Great Australian Chase during middle and late March.  You decide - is this a brutal number, or is the number deceptive?  I think the latter, but the loss of Prince of Wales was very tough.



Everything but the cruisers and POW is minor. They are too in the big scheme, but in the theater, for the near future, they hurt a lot more than they do globally.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/11/2013 10:08:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Cap, on the possibility - the one in a trillion possibility - that I someday may become famous enough that the press will scour the most obscure sources for samples of my writing and opinions, I decline to answer your question.


Which, of course, means that she was. [:)]

You can use code words like "healthy" or "athletic" or..well, never mind.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/11/2013 10:15:21 PM)

Honey Boo Boo.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/11/2013 10:25:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Honey Boo Boo.


Child labor laws?[8D]



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/11/2013 10:32:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Honey Boo Boo.


Oh dear. No consanguinity, I trust.

Wait, don't answer. She spotted the tornado before you.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 12:35:13 PM)

3/26/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  With the S-Branch KB just south of Albany and likely on a course that will take her around the cape near Perth, I've set up my air force to try for a strike.  Perth has 90 fighters, and one each squadron of Banshees and Vindicators and two of SBD-3s.  Geraldton has two SBD-3 squadrons and one Banshee.  So that's something like 130 dive bombers and 90 fighters.  But this is probably still too good to be true.  I know John will likely take a crack at New Orleans (repairing there) soon, so we'll see.

Invasion Bonus:  This will expire in five days.  My guess is that John might be throwing something together to try and hit Port Blair.  I can offer about ten subs in oppostion, nothing else.

Japanese Phase II:  The follow up operations by Japan have been delayed for 2+ months - a decisive mistake IMO - but I think something's coming in April.  I'm betting on SW Australia.  I will do what I can to contest such an invasion - and I'll have alot more ground troops and American fighter and bombers starting in about ten days - but he can probably bring enough (now that Singers has fallen) to prevail.  However, I can't foresee any "Auto Victory" type threats developing at this point, so anything else is just an opportunity to (a) attrit Japan and (b) see Japan extend it's lines, which I can then use effectively later on.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 1:53:31 PM)

3/27/42
 
Too Good to be True:  Darn it!  The S-Branch of the KB stands off well to the SW of the cape.  After placing his carriers just a handful of hexes from Melbourne, John gets spidey senses and avoids Perth.  Drat!  None of my aircraft sortied, so at least he doesn't have any intel about my carrier planes (as far as I know).  I've been gleaning base forces around Oz to send to Perth, but unrestricted units are scarce.  Fortunately, one decent American base force unit is at Perth.  I think John's gonna come for Perth - either amphibious or new carrier raid - so maybe he'll eventually stumble into a lick.

Oz:  Another big transport TF will arrive at Sydney in two days.  I hope to withdraw QE at Sydney tomorrow.

Luzon:  Clark field is down to 5k supply.  I think she'll hold into early April, which is just delightful (especially considering Manila's sudden collapse way back in December).

India:  A new UK division is arriving at Aden.  I'm likely to commit this unit to the defense of Ceylon.  There are certain circumstances (highly unlikely but not impossible) in which I'd send them to Port Blair.

China:  MLR intact, though I do have several encroachments creating contest hexes (still controlled by the Chinese) between Kweilin and Hengyang).

Pacific:  No news.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 2:09:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/27/42
 
Too Good to be True:  Darn it!  The S-Branch of the KB stands off well to the SW of the cape.  After placing his carriers just a handful of hexes from Melbourne, John gets spidey senses and avoids Perth.  Drat!  None of my aircraft sortied, so at least he doesn't have any intel about my carrier planes (as far as I know).  I've been gleaning base forces around Oz to send to Perth, but unrestricted units are scarce.  Fortunately, one decent American base force unit is at Perth.  I think John's gonna come for Perth - either amphibious or new carrier raid - so maybe he'll eventually stumble into a lick.


So, he has carriers SW of Perth. Where could they go? 1) Perth 2) North (and away?) 3) West (nothing there and he knows it) 4) Back east.

Knowing John, knowing that he just had a drunken orgy of destruction, suspecting he doesn't know where your carriers are (not 100%), is Perth the high percentage move? I think it's at least 50%, but not 100%. If he did the bad thing and went east your carriers are naked. You could get your air groups back in two days (?) but they'd be tired.

My Finance professor always said "Secure the downside risk first and then re-evaluate."

Just something to consider.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 3:10:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/27/42
 
Too Good to be True:  Darn it!  The S-Branch of the KB stands off well to the SW of the cape.  After placing his carriers just a handful of hexes from Melbourne, John gets spidey senses and avoids Perth.  Drat!  None of my aircraft sortied, so at least he doesn't have any intel about my carrier planes (as far as I know).  I've been gleaning base forces around Oz to send to Perth, but unrestricted units are scarce.  Fortunately, one decent American base force unit is at Perth.  I think John's gonna come for Perth - either amphibious or new carrier raid - so maybe he'll eventually stumble into a lick.


So, he has carriers SW of Perth. Where could they go? 1) Perth 2) North (and away?) 3) West (nothing there and he knows it) 4) Back east.

Knowing John, knowing that he just had a drunken orgy of destruction, suspecting he doesn't know where your carriers are (not 100%), is Perth the high percentage move? I think it's at least 50%, but not 100%. If he did the bad thing and went east your carriers are naked. You could get your air groups back in two days (?) but they'd be tired.

My Finance professor always said "Secure the downside risk first and then re-evaluate."

Just something to consider.

I'm sure CR has some Whirraways at Melbourne to cover his carriers ....[8|]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 3:19:41 PM)

As usual with WitP:  AE, everything is an intricate dance, to wit:

1.  I want strike aircraft at Perth in case I get a shot at a lingering CV TF.
2.  My carriers are pretty naked at Melbourne.  I can probably shift my aircraft back to Melbourne before any element of the KB could arrive (or I could flee in a pinch - I should also note that I have picket ships east of Sydney and Brisbane to guard against a surprise from that direction).
3.  I have about ten inbound air transport TFs carrying a variety of American army and navy squadrons.  If they make it safely and reasonably soon, that alters the equations somewhat, giving me more protection.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 4:18:19 PM)

3/27/42
 
Australia:  QE has withdrawn.  27th/C Div. is en route to the Perth theater to join 27/A.  The transports carrying 27/B have arrived at Sydney and will mostly unload tonight.  Two small USN squadrons will unload at Hobart tonight.  Lots more due to arrive at Melbourne over the next five to seven days.  The Allies are much closer to having the wherewithal to fight for Australia.

India:  I am deeming India secure.  Not that John can't engage in a major invasion and give me fits, but that the number of units in place, the depth of the defenses, and the large number of American and British fighter squadrons eliminate the possiblility of a full scale disaster here.  Hyuga and Ise visited Port Blair tonight.  John has four BBs regularly visiting.  Can he throw together an invasion of PB quick enough to catch the last of the invasion bonus?

China:  A 75 P-40Es at Changhsa tangled with an assortment of enemy fighters and bombers.  The Americans came out ahead, but not by all that much.  John continues to interdict the rail hexes between Kweilin and Hengyang, but from where I sit he appears to be dispersed, bogged down, and at some risk of his units getting isolated as I try to work around from his rear.  All things considered, the MLR is intact.

Pacific:  Quiet.



Encircled -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 6:41:00 PM)

If the game is about VP's, has he gained enough by his Trans-Aus adventure to justify it?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 6:53:10 PM)

The game isn't really about VPs since, IMO, Japanese AV is no longer possible.  But purely from a VP standpoint, the mission was successful from John's point of view.  Here's my evaluation:

Tactical:  Clear Japanese victory as the raid sinks an enormous number of ships at relatively low cost to Japan in terms of ships and aircraft.

Operational:  This is kind of my "spin" zone, but to me the operation as a whole failed.  The Allies are bringing in the reinforcement convoys that were held up for ten days or so, meaning that the Allies well end the operation stronger than they began it, excepting only the much-lamented loss of Prince of Wales.

Strategic:  To me this exercise is an utter disaster for Japan.  It indicates that John did not have a concise, well-thought-out plan to use his naval power in tandem with an important Phase II undertaking to seize important territory.  Instead of employing his carriers and combat ships in a strategic manner, he used them in a sexy, endorphin-generating orgy of pleasure.  In other words, he is dissipating.



Encircled -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 7:25:41 PM)

I have to give special praise for the use of the phrase "sexy, endorphin-generating orgy of pleasure".

I normally only get one of them when I sink anything with a Wirraway!

Being serious for a moment, I agree with you. Ten to twenty days of palpations ending with Aus a lot stronger than it was, and no sign of a follow up invasion fleet.

Now if he'd done that raid, and landed at the same time, that would have been interesting



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 7:29:20 PM)

I said very much the same thing back at the inception of the raid:  if it was part of complex operational plan to cover an invasion of the Perth area, then it made sense (though I still don't think Perth is a great Phase II operation by itself). 



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 8:01:11 PM)

CR - I agree that strategically, John's move was a huge waste of a valuable resource at a critical time....it makes a lot of sense if he's decided to make Australia the focus of his next campaign - but it really doesn't change the balance sheet or give him anything you can't take back at a later date, at your leisure.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 10:22:33 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I said very much the same thing back at the inception of the raid:  if it was part of complex operational plan to cover an invasion of the Perth area, then it made sense (though I still don't think Perth is a great Phase II operation by itself). 


John experienced a tactical and strategic disaster trying to take Perth in From Here to......Eternity (stock WITP). Not sure if that would make him more or less apt to try it again.



GreyJoy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/12/2013 11:37:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The game isn't really about VPs since, IMO, Japanese AV is no longer possible.  But purely from a VP standpoint, the mission was successful from John's point of view.  Here's my evaluation:

Tactical:  Clear Japanese victory as the raid sinks an enormous number of ships at relatively low cost to Japan in terms of ships and aircraft.

Operational:  This is kind of my "spin" zone, but to me the operation as a whole failed.  The Allies are bringing in the reinforcement convoys that were held up for ten days or so, meaning that the Allies well end the operation stronger than they began it, excepting only the much-lamented loss of Prince of Wales.

Strategic:  To me this exercise is an utter disaster for Japan.  It indicates that John did not have a concise, well-thought-out plan to use his naval power in tandem with an important Phase II undertaking to seize important territory.  Instead of employing his carriers and combat ships in a strategic manner, he used them in a sexy, endorphin-generating orgy of pleasure.  In other words, he is dissipating.



It's amazing how povs can change when you shift side... When i played my match as the allies i believed Japan in 1942 almost unstoppable... now, when i read your comments (which, btw, i completely agree with) i feel a deep pain for the japanese player...always pressed between the consciousness of the voulnerability (and irreprecablitity) of his main assets and the tremendous need to run against the ticking time... believe me my friend: it's a stressing sensation!...and, in a certain way, it feels much better to be hammered, late in the war, by hundreds of 4Es than when, in early 1942, you know you MUST accomplish something big!
It's even worse when you face an experienced and wise player like you.... i don't envy John...that's for sure[;)]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 3:08:07 PM)

3/29/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  The first big Japanese air raid against Perth is a disaster, for John.  His lightly escorted Netties came first, with Zero sweeps (including carrier fighters) coming later.  The Allies win the battle 3:1.  I think John will stand down strike aircraft tomorrow and ramp up his sweeps.  I'll keep my Kitty/Warhawks on station and let them take a beating for a day or two while I continue to gather Wildcats at Kalgoorlie.  As soon as the 'Cats are ready to fly, I'll insert them.

Battle of SW Oz:  It's sure shaping up like John has big plans for this region.  That suits me.  I am gathering a big enough land and air force to contest the region, but I'm fighting with house money, because I don't care if I lose.  Perth is no big deal.  27th Div. is now all ashore.  One brigade is at Perth.  The two at Sydney will divide - one going to Perth, one to the small base hex just south.  An American tank unit will serve as a reserve at the base just east of Perth.  Two brigades of Americal are inbound to Melbourne, perhaps five days out.  Many more aircraft are inbound.  So the Allies will try to make Perth an effective bleeding ground.

India:  Showing my carrier air in Oz could have benefits here.  It might persuade John that he can invade Port Blair with just a few carriers in support.  In a few weeks, I'll be able to cobble together Hornet, Indomitable, Formidable and Hermes.  If, on the other hand, John continues to stand down in the Bay of Bengal, I may elect to reinforce strongly (in that case, I'll probably have to eventually - medium term - shift all of my carriers this way to sustain the campaign).  Other than that, India looks good.

China:  John has units scattered about and hung up along my MLR.  His units have only one hexside of egress, so I can give him fits in various ways.  I've stood down the American P-40Es at Changsha, which is my normal practice (moving them back to Chungking), but I moved in two RAF Hurricane units.  John won't expect that (though I may not have enough to bludgeon his sweeping fighters). Thre IJA divisions at Changsha tried an ill-advised deliberate attack and were readily repulsed with light casualties. John will be excited because he dropped forts from 3 to 2. I hope he'll try another attack - preferably a shock attack - because he'll get clobbered. His attack was very close to a 1:3 and he suffered many more disabled squads.

Pacific:  Quiet.



Q-Ball -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 4:14:43 PM)

Those losses you suffered are minor. Only PRINCE of WALES and EXETER have any value, and even EXETER you won't miss that much. GLASGOW is modern, but has an early withdrawl date. All the other warships are old and very expendible. The transports are very replaceable.

Of much more importance is the long delay of him taking Singapore; that means alot more to you than this naval victory means to him. I attribute that delay more to John's mistake in not committing enough troops, and using them badly, but you did get down Malaya cleanly.

I think you're doing fine. You're giving up quite a bit of Australia, but that's not fatal.

Grand CV raids as Japan are usually not a good idea. Unless you can catch a CV in port or something really juicy, the price you pay in lost time and revealing the location of CVs is not worth whatever you might sink.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 5:50:05 PM)

3/30/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  I am much surprised that John stands down his airforce today, giving both my Kitty/Warhawks time to repair and my Wildcats time to recover from rail transport.  But the USAAF was not quiet.  Banshees sortie from Geraldton in numbers, seriously damaging two IJN fleet AO and a DD.  What a happy little event!

Oz:  The nation is out of fuel and my carrier TF is low on fuel.  An AO TF will arrive at Melbourne in a couple of days, thus providing my carriers with the means of "fleeing" in the event enemy carriers threaten (this is critical since my carrier air is in the Perth area).

India/Bay of Bengal:  Another IJ BB bombardment run at Port Blair.  I think John will come soon, but if he delays another month, the Allies will try to take advantage.  A big USMC base force reached Chittagong, where the airfield is level four and growing.

China:  Quiet day.  I think the Chinese are doing well in the important little contest to control the line of hexes between Kweilin and Hengyang.  John's units, as already noted, are dispersed, have very limited hex control, and have poor supply lines.  I don't think John has a good grasp of what it takes to win the war of maneuver in this section.  He's playing it more like Hood than Sherman.  It's going to be a battle, but the Chinese can wage an effective campaign to slow or frustate Japan out here.  Meanwhile, I don't think John is going to make any meaningful headway in the Changsha, Chengte, Sian sectors in the short or medium term.

Pacific:  Quiet.  Allied troops at Seattle are prepping for various Aleutian targets on the possibility that I'll want to move that way at some point.  Troops at LA are prepping for a couple of remote SoPac islands in case we want to try any "dash and grabs" to keep John on his toes.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 6:11:03 PM)

FWIW (and not much given your feelings toward Perth) but Alfred long ago pointed out the usefullness of a landing at Esperance to Japan. Does not break the LOD, and is a clean shot north to cut the railroad at Kalgoorlie.

Also FWIW, my read on the LOD is the first land hex whcih triggers is two hexes inclusive due south (map south) of Port Augusta. (Well, the parrot beak across the bight is also y=161, but who would venture there?)



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 6:17:27 PM)

Thanks Moose.  I'll look at the map again with those ideas in mind.

I'd expect any landing to take place at Geraldton or Esperance.  The former is close to his base of operations; the latter offers the opportunities you point out.  As my reinforcement arrive in the area, I'll try to effectively configure my defenses.  I'm posting my armor behind the beaches so that I can intercept any "calvary rides out of beachheads" by Japanese armor.

If John pulls a big suprise and strikes at Port Augusta, thus threatening my LOC, I'll know he's coming.  That will give me time to configure my air power.  He'll have to be careful, because by then I'll have a heckuva lot in the vicinity.




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 6:26:04 PM)

I'm just wondering if, in his blood lust (tm), he's remembering the LOD. I don't know any way to sucker him into Port Augusta's vicinity, but it's real easy to blunder over the line, or retreat over it (more delicious for the Allies by far.)



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 6:40:03 PM)

Surely nobody would forget an LOD?  (I know its possible, but what a thing to happen!)

After considering your suggestions, I switched 4th Oz Div. at Sydney to "strategic" movement.  That will be my reserve to move to Port Augusta in the event of an emergency.



ny59giants -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 6:52:31 PM)

quote:

Oz:  The nation is out of fuel and my carrier TF is low on fuel.  An AO TF will arrive at Melbourne in a couple of days, thus providing my carriers with the means of "fleeing" in the event enemy carriers threaten (this is critical since my carrier air is in the Perth area).


I usually turn off the big HI in Sydney to save fuel on day one. I would think about building up Hobart and use it to store fuel for your fleet operating in the Australia area for the next year. I like to use those large xAKs that also have a liquid capacity to haul fuel.



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 6:59:52 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

quote:

Oz:  The nation is out of fuel and my carrier TF is low on fuel.  An AO TF will arrive at Melbourne in a couple of days, thus providing my carriers with the means of "fleeing" in the event enemy carriers threaten (this is critical since my carrier air is in the Perth area).


I usually turn off the big HI in Sydney to save fuel on day one. I would think about building up Hobart and use it to store fuel for your fleet operating in the Australia area for the next year. I like to use those large xAKs that also have a liquid capacity to haul fuel.

Just for ambiance I consider it my duty to supply fuel (& oil as possible) to keep the civilian economy running. Only in the direst extreme would I shut off HI/LI to save fuel if I felt the extremity of it as in line with how I viewed the scenario.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 8:15:30 PM)

I turned off HI on the first turn (justifying doing so by reasoning that the game makes it very difficult to establish working tanker convoys early on - handling tankers is a nightmare before you get some decent ports built).

I sucked Oz completely dry by running in a bunch of huge TFs - one CV, one combat, and a series of big troop transports - over the past few weeks.

Hobart always plays a big part in the game for me.  I like it for the reasons that NYGiants spells out and for several others.



Crackaces -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/13/2013 11:42:16 PM)

quote:

FWIW (and not much given your feelings toward Perth) but Alfred long ago pointed out the usefullness of a landing at Esperance to Japan.


Wow .. I am not sure how practiical it is for the IJ to maintain supply for such an endevour .. [&:] I assume Perth would have to be taken and supplies hoarded for the eventual Allied repsonse ... all those clear hexes I inagine would be very tough to defend against Allied armor ... I guess there is a short term strateigc advantage?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (2/14/2013 3:40:45 PM)

3/31/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  Large Zero sweeps over Perth get the best of the remaining Kitty/Warhawks.  Now I'm sending in about 75 Wildcats.  Thought about this long and hard - major decision.  Open to criticism.  Revealing the proximity of my carriers, but doing so in hopes of both prompting John to slow down a bit (I need a few weeks to get my defenses around Perth maximized) and to focus in this region.  If I don't bring in more fighters, he'll shut down the airfield in short order (he'll probably bring in some BBs soon and those I can't defend against at the moment; but I'll deal with that when the times comes). I can fight effectively in and around Oz, and if that takes John's mind off other locales, I can use that at some ponit too.

India:  No sign of an imminent invasion of Port Blair.

China:  Massive IJ sweeps over Changsha chew up the two Hurricane squadrons (that's okay too, as John has so many aircraft here that he's not attending to Clark Field nor has he overwhelmed me anywhere else).  The Chinese try there first attack in the contested hex just east of Chengte and get an encouraging 1:1.  That'll worry John.  The Japanese try yet another ill-advised deliberate attack at Changsha, dropping forts to one but taking much higher casualities (though just a handful of destroyed squads).  I think John thinks he's making progress here, but he isn't. 

Pacific:  Quiet.  SigInt of an IJ division (24th) prepping for Palmerton North.  Right.  If you want credible misinformation, prep for somewhere where the prep is needed - like Auckland.  Palmerton North?  Two Boy Scouts and a billy goat could take it with minus 38% prep.



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