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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/17/2016 2:26:17 PM)
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10/21/43
When I started backpacking the Appalachian Trail with my (then) young boys, planning for a trip was intense. It was a complicated undertaking - what clothes? what food? what gear? shopping; packing; how far to go? who would pick us up when we finished? where? how would we contact them (I don't have a cell phone)? As the date of departure neared, the uncertainties and risks would weigh on me - poisonous snakes, bears, wild boars, ticks, and the occasional roaming lunatic. But above all, I worried about being caught on an exposed ridge during a thunderstorm. I wouldn't sleep well a night or two before leaving. Then the morning of departure would arrive and bring blessed relief. It was no longer a matter of planning or worrying. From that moment forward it was a matter of putting one step in front of another - remaining vigilant and responsible. We have indeed encountered poisonous snakes, bears, ticks, biting flies, thunderstorms, cold rain, and even the occasional wandering curmudgeon. But we took them one at a time while experiencing the magnificent adventures that have come to mean so much to us.
Big Tent: I spent a troubled, restless evening fretting over the potential strength of KB and the audacity and risks of this plan. I weighed the options - proceed? cancel? modify? go with an alternate?
Ultimately, I decided to proceed for now with the plan, though also adding a alternative that I liked and which helped ease my mind. Enough good APAs, AKAs and AKs just arrived so that I loaded a division for a closer, safer (but very toughly defended) target. That way if something goes wrong while Big Tent rolls towards its objectives, I can divert to this secondary target that has clear routes of egress to nearby Allied bases.
A tremendous number of transports are already at sea, moving towards the first rendezvous point. Most of the other transports will depart Pearl tomorrow. A few will be a day further behind but can catch up as the massive armada will undoubtedly move slowly. The bulk of the carriers and combat ships will depart Pearl in two or three days, though a covering CVE TF and a combat TF are accompanying the transports, mainly against the threat of a wandering raiding DD TF.
Part of the planning involved pre-positioning quantities of fuel at far-flung islands (Midway, Christmas, Suva, Auckland) to serve in the case the armada has to retire short on fuel. But one of these will also serve the combat ships as they head out, topping off fuel so that they're flush.
Support ships (AD, AS, AE, AKE) are included in the invasion, both others are pre-positioned at some of these bases - again, just in case the combat ships run short during the operation and need to replenish while egressing.
I've noticed that John has been surprisingly engaged over the past few weeks. I say "surprised," because I had expected demoralization after the Great Naval Battle of Wake Island. At first, I attributed his energy his carrier raid against the LOC between Wake and Midway (which drilled a dry hole). Now I wonder if he's received carrier replacements and feels like he is ready to stand up to Death Star. That's what rattles my nerves.
SigInt still looks very good. There has been some small activity on the periphery of the Big Tent area of operations, but nothing of concern. I'm reconning Marcus and Pagan, Truk and Ponape. John is reinforcing Marcus and Pagan and there is lots of activity in the Marshalls. Those are logical targets that have been undergarrisoned and therefore at risk, so I think he's probably most concerned about them and the associated islands chains (Carolines, Bonins).
Bearded Lady: Lots of enemy activity at Ro-Namur. Eniwetok, Ponape, and Kusaie are also strongly garrisoned. Enemy CAP keeps downing half a dozen PBYs each turn, so I'm going to try using search vectors.
Lion Tamer: My amphibious TF commander will be court-martialed. He's putting only support troops ashore at Koumac, an open IJ base, while the combat troops remain aboard ship.
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