RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 3:36:00 AM)

The title of the story is "27 Miles from Nowhere."

Here's the email message from John with the new turn: "If head further west, you will be in a world of hurt. Keep coming into range of the Marianas and/or Truk BABY!"

I don't think I've seen this kind of thing from him before.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 3:49:59 AM)

Purple prose alert!



Capt. Harlock -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 4:13:18 AM)

quote:

The title of the story is "27 Miles from Nowhere."


27 miles is a mere hour's steaming at flank speed, and point-blank range for air. He probably means 27 hexes. Perhaps he's getting a bit rattled? [:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 4:22:41 AM)

11/6/43

Big Tent: Another reasonably quiet day ended with John's rather bombastic email message (see prior post).

The herd moves just four hexes, while I'd ordered six. I'm not sure what slowed it. But it moved due west (the last two hexes would've been a job SW). So John is probably still uncertain, but considering all possibilities: Marianas, Truk, Wolei, deeper. If, as I think, his underbelly is soft, he's also very worried about that. That may explain his uncharacteristic slowness in completing the turn and his email message. He may simply be on edge.

If he's not on edge, I am enough for both of us. This is a perilous journey, and the next three days will be the most dangerous of all. The herd will being closing on Truk to avoid the Marianas nest of airfields. If KB is available, and if John feels like rolling the dice, he should do so in one of the next three turns - probably the middle one.

But he deployed four BBs to bombard Tarawa today! What the heck? He did moderately heavy damage to a field that's just totally irrelevant to the war at this point. His BBs are about 30 hexes from the herd, meaning they won't be present during the period of greatest vulnerability. And I keep wondering: if BBs are down here, where is KB? Wouldn't he concentrate his forces to face such a grave and deep threat to the Empire?

So, I have an extraordinarly queasy stomach, but the op goes forward.

The herd is 15 hexes from the first beach. I anticipate the first landing on Nov. 9.

Eldorado will be triggered in three or four days.

Lion Tamer: Another dot hex fell to the Allies today. Recon shows Funafuti is still modestly garrisoned by fighting troops. And there's an Allied base in an undisclosed location that is now perhaps the busiest on the map as Third Ring troops concentrate and prepare to follow on Big Tent, if the fates permit.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/71F7507BFA744E49BAAE0369A6DD29B7.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 4:24:05 AM)

I created some confusion a page back, it seems. The "27 Miles from Nowhere" title refers to the story I'm writing about my Sunday night hike under a full moon. It does not pertain to the game. But I guess you could say, from a game standpoint, that I'm 15 Hexes from Nowhere.



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 5:22:21 AM)

15 hexes to Satawal atoll. Hmm - the atoll is about one square kilometer in area, with no anchorage for large boats (much less ships). You got a hankering for breadfruit and coconut? Need to learn indigenous navigating techniques?




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 5:28:07 AM)

I hope it's big enough handle some Free French soldiers, American engineers, and a few seaplanes.

Big Tent has three possible routes of egress. I've just about eliminated one, which modifies the opening act a bit, streamlining things. The armada will move more expeditiously to the main objectives.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 6:24:37 AM)

I'm getting mixed signals from John, which I'm having a hard time interpreting. Since a major battle may ensue, I'll share in some detail.

John doesn't feint when he's coming. If he begins reconning a base it's almost always because he plans to hit it.

I think he expects the same from his opponent: If I recon a base, John sits up and takes notice. I think that makes it possible to decoy him.

Similarly, when John utters a boast or a threat, he's usually not playing coy. He often gives away big plans by doing that very thing.

In this case, John uttered a boast about the strength of Truk and the Marianas. So I sit up and take notice. Yet, his conduct doesn't support his boast. I'd think if he was ready to unleash havoc, he'd want to flip turns. Today he dallied with a turn uncharacteristically long. When he finally sent it tonight, I told him to let me know whether he wanted it back tonight, tomorrow a.m. or late tomorrow. He replied, "Morning." That lacks the enthusiasm he'd unsually display.

Putting this all together -the emails, the lack of energy, the BBs at Tarawa, the YMS circling the Marianas undetected, I wonder if I've caught John on the wrong foot. He may be just evaluating the possibility that I'm targeting bases that are pretty vulnerable.

I could be wrong, of course. He may be about to unleash havoc with tomorrow's turn. I'm antsy and worried, but I'd be much more worried if those four BBs were bearing down on the herd as though John really was prepared to unleash havoc.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 6:37:25 AM)

Two things to add as I prepare for a restless slumber:

1. Truk is level six airfield, not eight. That helps.
2. I had confirmation a few turns back that CVL Mizuho sank during the Great Naval Battle of Wake Island. Unless there are real surprises now, that should be the final tally: 3 CV, 4 CVL, and 8 CVE.



Encircled -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 8:19:15 AM)

Hmmmm, despite all the evidence sailing towards his rear areas, he's wasting ammo and fuel bombarding somewhere that will be a backwater in about a couple of weeks.

Those BBs should be available to hit you, not messing about miles from anywhere important.

Like the carrier battle, he's making decisions that are not based on a rational assessment of the position he is in.

Good news for you!



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 9:57:01 AM)

I'm beginning to get an inkling of what you are doing (hard not to at this point). As mentioned earlier I expect he is moving planes into position and the air onslaught will commence in the next turn or so. That is , as expected. Whats the thinking on Truk? You will have to run that guantlet for the rest of the war. Everytime you bring ships our or supplies in you are going to be subject to the unending stream of aircraft



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 11:50:22 AM)

The likely cause of your 4 hex move when you expected a 6 hex move is slowing to refuel short legged escorts from long legged transports.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 11:59:42 AM)

Hans, I had just replenished fuel the turn before. It's possible that I used up so many ops points that it affected movement.

John, the herd is going to pass very close to Truk over the next three turns. If the herd passes at a range of a few hexes it will stay fairly distant from the Marianas and Ponape.

You're right about Truk being a tough nut located right on that LOC. The plan is to invade sometime in early '44. The troops are prepping.

Originally, I had planned to egress from Big Tent the way I ingressed. That way the carriers and combat ships would remain in CenPac, best able to protect Wake. About two weeks ago, I decided on a different course of action - a differet route of egress that involves a lot more offensive action.

The next three turns will probably dedice whether that's a viable plan.



Reg -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 12:00:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I'm beginning to get an inkling of what you are doing (hard not to at this point). As mentioned earlier I expect he is moving planes into position and the air onslaught will commence in the next turn or so. That is , as expected. Whats the thinking on Truk? You will have to run that guantlet for the rest of the war. Everytime you bring ships our or supplies in you are going to be subject to the unending stream of aircraft



If Canoerebel can interdict the supply lines running south to Truk, it eventually won't matter how many planes are based there.

Lets hope there isn't too much supply stockpiled there and that he can ride out the whirlwind until it runs down a bit.




JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 12:06:59 PM)

Yeah but he John will be able to bring aircraft into Truk from interior lines for the next year or more. I'm presuming supply is not an issue there. Not impossible to live with, just a giant hornets nest right in the way to the mailbox.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 12:39:56 PM)

Well, if things go well please consider empting you CA and BB magazines at Truk on the way home. Silly to carry all that ammo back to base.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 1:50:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

The likely cause of your 4 hex move when you expected a 6 hex move is slowing to refuel short legged escorts from long legged transports.

As Canoerebel has ruled out the fuelling issue, I think it is the LSTs in the lagging convoys that just caught up that are slowing movement. They have about the slowest speed of any ship likely to be in an amphib task force.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 2:56:14 PM)

The turn is off to John. The herd should end up five hexes from Truk. Masses of LBA and carrier strike aircraft may overwhelm my CAP and do nasty things. But my hunch is that John doesn't commit KB (at least not yet) and that CAP can handle LBA with an acceptable number of losses.

The risk is worth taking because the rewards will be so great if this op is successful. I think it represents the last time the Allies will have a shot at largely undefended bases in a vital region. If Big Tent succeeds, New Guinea, the Solomons and the Marshalls are irrelevant, I'll be in the DEI in strength, and a two front war opens (with the two fronts converging and linking up at the same time).



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 2:59:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Purple prose alert!


[:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 3:00:48 PM)

I had to look up purple prose. It's not a good thing for a writer, so I went back through the story I'm writing to check for it. But I'm not sure if Loka was referring to me (my "27 Miles from Nowhere" title), to John (his bombastic email message), or to something else entirely.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 3:07:40 PM)

So it is Satawal..Wolei, Yap, Beazelbob and points West. You should go for Hollandia as well to cut off resupply of Truk from the West.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 3:13:12 PM)

Aitapia and Hollandia are believed to be hardened targets. Vanamo and Hansa Bay aren't.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 3:26:23 PM)

And Vanimmo starts with a level one AF. You could put 50 P-47's there while building.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 3:28:11 PM)

And P-47s can easily fly in from Oz. [:)]



poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 3:46:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I'm beginning to get an inkling of what you are doing (hard not to at this point). As mentioned earlier I expect he is moving planes into position and the air onslaught will commence in the next turn or so. That is , as expected. Whats the thinking on Truk? You will have to run that guantlet for the rest of the war. Everytime you bring ships our or supplies in you are going to be subject to the unending stream of aircraft
If Big Tent is successful, then the Japanes positions in Papua and New Guinea, the Solomons, Bismarcks and Admiralty Islands will be effectively isolated. The Allies will be able to establish, and utilize, a less threatened SLOC south and west of Truk. The Japanese will have to prepare the defense of the Philippines with the knowledge that the Allies can come from the Southwest Pacific instead of the South Pacific or Central Pacific. So Truk can sit there as a potential sore spot, but it will be an irritant not s serious threat.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 3:58:12 PM)

quote:

Aitapia and Hollandia are believed to be hardened targets. Vanamo and Hansa Bay aren't.

But Hollandia is on the shopping list, no? you are going to need a port up here



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 4:04:45 PM)

Hollandia isn't a near term target. The Allies will spend two months taking and building bases, including ports. Some of these can be built to level four. I think a few can be built to five. There might even be one or two that can be built to six. And the building will mostly be going on far to the west (true west) of Hollandia.

But you guys are right that I'm going to need a major port. It's going to be very hard to deal with damaged ships during this op. It's a long and hazardous way to Pearl. It's a long (and hazardous, at least at the moment) way to Sydney.

So at some point I'm going to need big port. That's why Truk is on the list of invasion targets for early '44. That's why I'm taking bases close to Hollandia (so that I can move on H. if it turns out to be weakly defended). And Rabaul is another possibility.

Long term, Manila is the objective.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 4:18:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I had to look up purple prose. It's not a good thing for a writer, so I went back through the story I'm writing to check for it. But I'm not sure if Loka was referring to me (my "27 Miles from Nowhere" title), to John (his bombastic email message), or to something else entirely.


I was referring to the dark and stormy night bit. I believe that's the classic example of purple prose. Depending on the style, purple prose doesn't have to be bad. The author I'm reading likes to have lots of pairs of heterosexual life partners who talk back and forth for pages sometimes. Most of the time, nuggets about the setting or plot are contained therein, but I finally had to skip one because it didn't seem like it was relevant at all - their 2-3 pages (on my table, so 4-6 pages in a real book?) of speech back and forth didn't seem to have any plot value that couldn't have been said in about 2-3 paragraphs at most, which still would've been verbose. I think that's after about 10,000 pages of the guy's writing. He finally took it too far, seemingly for the sake of showing how much these 2 guys talked to each other about really circuitous crap.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hollandia isn't a near term target. The Allies will spend two months taking and building bases, including ports. Some of these can be built to level four. I think a few can be built to five. There might even be one or two that can be built to six. And the building will mostly be going on far to the west (true west) of Hollandia.

But you guys are right that I'm going to need a major port. It's going to be very hard to deal with damaged ships during this op. It's a long and hazardous way to Pearl. It's a long (and hazardous, at least at the moment) way to Sydney.

So at some point I'm going to need big port. That's why Truk is on the list of invasion targets for early '44. That's why I'm taking bases close to Hollandia (so that I can move on H. if it turns out to be weakly defended). And Rabaul is another possibility.

Long term, Manila is the objective.


How's Sorong? It goes to level 5, which isn't "large" but it can be big enough to do most things.

Based on where you are and where you're landing now, I think Truk makes the most sense medium-term.



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 4:45:04 PM)

Can we get a list of targets now? Please? [:)]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/23/2016 5:28:07 PM)

11/7/43

Big Tent: A fine day for the Allied forces. It opens with Silverside hitting a TK and sinking a PB in the Philippine Sea. It continues with the herd moving SW five hexes (to within 5 hexes of Truk) without encountering enemy subs. And the foremost action is a series of unsuccessful attacks by LBA from Truk. There was one large strike escorted by Georges, Franks and Zeroes. It got chewed up with no ships being targetd. Subsequent strikes by unescorted bombers of course did worse.

On the day, John lost about 130 aircraft, I think including 100+ Jills and Judys. The Allies lost one Wildcat fighter.

Death Star strike aircraft then sortied against shipping at Truk. It is tempting to be sarcastic about those ships being there, but it could be they had a vital mission to deliver much-needed supply or some artillery. Here John lost three xAK, two PB and an AMC.

Witpqs, I am not quite ready to reveal targets yet, for this reason: Big Tent is a slow moving, long lasting operation. Some of the major targets are quite distant in time and distance, so I want to maintain opsec for now.

The first landing should, however, take place in two days - Free French aboard APDs tasked with taking Satawal, which will then be used to base PBYs. This isn't a critical part of the operation, but it may be useful.

It isn't critical because of Eldorado, which I'll reveal in a few days. But I will say that I just finished alot of clicking to change the home port of every TF involved in Big Tent to another location. If something goes amiss now, I judge that it's better to have my TFs/ships retire to another location rather than to Wake. This is one of the important role played by Eldorado.

Those four BBs are down around Ocean, retiring after their bombardment run to Tarawa. They are still 30 hexes distant from the herd, so they won't be a factor during the next two days. If John's going to combine KB and LBA, tomorrow is his best chance. But the loss of 130 good aircraft today probably takes just a bit of the edge off the threat. I hope. If John doesn't strike effectively tomorrow, then the herd begins to create separation from all the threatening airfields except Truk, and in about three days even it will be distant enough to diminish as a threat.

At the moment I have no idea where KB is. The sighting of a CVL near Ontong Java a week back is the only sniff I've had. That and the fact that four BBs just visited Tarawa would lead me to guess that KB might be down around the Solomons; if not there, perhaps in the Bonins a few days back to respond to threats to either Marcus or the Marianas. If that's the case, it should be within striking distance.

Lion Tamer: Another dot hex base near Efate falls today. Judys sortie from Ndeni but get turned away by a few Lightnings flying LRCAP from Koumac.



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