RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 7:37:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Re: Sabang. Risking and losing approx. 7 divisions and supporting forces (most of which can be rebuilt) reduced the period of IJ initiative by at least 6 months. Huge win.

I think Alfred's point was that John III turned it into a win by not appropriately exploiting the Allied weakness in LCUs during the period the destroyed units were rebuilding.
I'm not sure I completely understand Alfred's expectations for the IJA after Sabang - they could go after China and Burma/Assam or even press further in SOPAC, but CR has shown that his current moves make all those areas irrelevant.


Except for VP harvesting purposes... don't underestimate LCU VPs. Also, I wonder if it would have been possible to bleed the Allied army device pools even more. That would be a gamebreaker if it got far enough.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 7:42:34 PM)

John Dillworth, you're right about the subs.

You know, I don't often mention sub warfare. Sub warfare is an important part of my game, but I just don't talk about results very often. It's not part of my DNA, as it would be for the Moose, and it isn't dear to me, as I think it is for John. I work sub warfare pretty hard, but I seldom report results unless it's a major target or confirmation of a trend in enemy shipping or movement.

Since Big Tent left Pearl Harbor, alot of attention was focused on that crazy couple of days when John's subs were alarmingly, startlingly effective. It rattled my cage! In that time, he damaged CL Birmingham (it's now one hex from Pearl), and sank probably a dozen xAK, xAP, one LCI and a TK or two.

But you know what? I think Allied subs have been almost as effective over that period of time (except for the CL) - my subs have gotten a bunch of xAK, a few xAP, a TK or two, plus damaged an AO. Nothing earthshaking, but consistent with my idea that shifting my subs to a slot between Truk and the Marianas, and then between the Marianas and the Philippines, was on target. I think that's where John's combat ships and commerce ships are likely to be over the coming weeks.

If (always "if") Big Tent is successful, it will pretty much close down Japanese commerce this side of Borneo. Everthing's going to have to go via the South China Sea. So it should become much easier to select sub patrol zones.



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 7:47:50 PM)

John Dillworth - concur with ensuring sub commanders have high naval and aggression. I read some posts by the Moose that really made a difference in my sub play: commanders and recognizing subs as offensive platforms.

I wonder if CR's Operation Third Ring will provide a link to the current New Guinea Operation by taking Port Moresby and Rabaul or if Luzon is the target?

Thanks for the China info CR.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 7:50:02 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Except for VP harvesting purposes... don't underestimate LCU VPs. Also, I wonder if it would have been possible to bleed the Allied army device pools even more. That would be a gamebreaker if it got far enough.


John harvested 3k VPs for Allied LCUs wiped out at Sabang. That hurt and will be a factor in auto victory ratios, once that comes into serious play.

But the 3k was worth it if it allowed me to penetrate deeply into the soft, unprotected vitals of John's DEI underbelly by late 1943.

Look at it this way. If I had managed to hold Sabang in strength, I'd now be pushing foward in a ground campaign in jungle terrain. I'd be making headway and by 1944 would be able to target Singapore, Palembang, and vicinity with strategic bombing. The cost might (or might not) have been high, but the Allies would have a strong position.

But, in effect, the Allies have traded Sabang for a promising operation that should seize the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern DEI. Babo and Boela should be shut down in the near term. By 1944, Balikpapan, Samrinda and Tarakan should be within range of 4EB, sea lanes east of Borneo will be closed, and subs will be within range of the South China Sea. Too, John's entire defense seems to be unhinged so that he may be scrambling now to attend to bases in Borneo and vicinity.

John had flooded Sumatra with an army. My going would have been slow there. I traded a standoff for a dynamic campaign that's made massive incursions into the empire.

Sabang was worth it.



1275psi -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 8:52:58 PM)

You know what i think
Banzia time is over and john will shortly
Quit

Hope i am wrong though



Anachro -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 9:01:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: 1275psi

You know what i think
Banzia time is over and john will shortly
Quit

Hope i am wrong though


I hope not, but you might be right. I originally planned to only post in John's AAR after the naval battle of Wake Island, but he hasn't posted that often or at any extended length, making this hard to do. So I'm back to reading either when they are updated. There have been no real updates from John's side for awhile.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 11:04:56 PM)

The herd closing on New Guinea.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/657CC29DC029491A9F0B6AEB34FD9E49.jpg[/image]



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 11:26:58 PM)

Quick! Find those Aussie paras and drop them at Manus!



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 11:31:22 PM)

Do you have any intel on that enemy TF between Wewak and Manus?

Re: Satawal - he doesn't have to counter-invade if he just bombs the heck out of it from Truk.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 11:31:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Quick! Find those Aussie paras and drop them at Manus!


[:D]
Wishing there was a way to launch them from a CV!



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 11:42:53 PM)

Yeah, the paras can't reach Manus.

The TF near Wewak is merchant ships - probably the TF that SigInt reported was carrying a CD unit to Manikwari.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/28/2016 11:58:04 PM)

Well let's hope he doesn't drop it at Hollandia when your herd cuts him off from Manokwari.
Couple of Fletchers could deal with those merchies nicely!



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 12:00:56 AM)

No, I'm not dispersing significant assets to go "backwards," at least not yet. I don't know where KB and the BBs are. And the real prizes lie ahead, as will be seen more clearly over the next few weeks. Better to focus forward while I can. Then I'll work backwards, on the north side of New Guinea or the south side or both.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 12:09:17 AM)

Heh, got me there.....Did not think you would go that far. Bold move sir



richlove -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 1:26:12 AM)

What's that green-looking unit to the west of Balikpapan?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 1:30:06 AM)

That's a remnant Dutch unit from 1941. It doesn't have combat power, but it does keep tabs on the number of units at Balikpapan.



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 3:48:54 AM)

My OCD would've kicked in and forced me to eliminate that Dutch unit and probably take Eldorado, too.

Just like I doubt that I could go out on a limb for north New Guinea and the Moluccas. I couldn't stand having all that red and green mixed up...




Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 5:07:21 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flicker

My OCD would've kicked in and forced me to eliminate that Dutch unit and probably take Eldorado, too.

Just like I doubt that I could go out on a limb for north New Guinea and the Moluccas. I couldn't stand having all that red and green mixed up...




Just think of it like spilling green paint in the middle of a red spot. Eventually, it will spill over.



JeffroK -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 7:38:05 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flicker

Alfred - I enjoy reading your impressions of CR's game; after all, it was CR, Nemo, and you writing about the game that led to my buying the game.

What would your proposed course of action after Sabang look like? Personally I may have used the land LCUs to take China (if possible given CRs defense). Ceylon or parts of India might have been targets. Nemo would've invaded the US East Coast :)


Nemo would have made you THINK he was invading the East Coast, then run around picking up all the bases you stripped to defend NYC!!



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 11:25:26 AM)

11/13/43

Big Tent: The herd rolls forward unmolested and is in position to initiate landings tomorrow.

In general, assaults will commence from south to north (east to west on a real map). Three are scheduled for tomorrow: Biak, Noemfoor, and Manikwari.

This next turn is key. I'll find out if John is ready to commit ships to defend and if my intel is on target. If Manik (one of my five major targets) is surprisingly defended, or if John attacks disrupting or damaging my ships, a devolving gum up may be unfolding; but if Manikwari is lightly defended and the initial invasions go well, Big Tent is going to be tough for John to stop.

The other two targets are "minor" and should be undefended. So both get small assault forces. But I can reinforce if necessary. But I don't want to reinforce assaults of dot hexes that should be undefended. I'd rather use the reserves against more toothsome targets later on.

SigInt that 16th Div. is aboard ships bound for Ambon. I have no idea where this TF is, but I hope it's at least three days out. I'd prefer that John not land there. My carriers could be in position to contest landings in three days, though that depends on what happens next. But if tomorrow and the day after go well, then my inclination is to leave behind the troops on the first beaches and move deeper to really disrupt the heart of the target area.

All DDs replenished fuel today. If things are in good shape, all CA and CL will do so tomorrow.

Third Ring troops, ships, and refueling TKs and xAKs are flooding into the Oz area.

I think tomorrow is the key. If John's configured defenses that really mess with me tomorrow this is going to be a tough campaign; if things go well tomorrow, Big Tent is going to deliver.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/90819E91FE96432D9637B7AFAC3BE006.jpg[/image]



JeffroK -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 12:16:39 PM)

Thats better.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 12:22:48 PM)

Get those search planes up and subs deployed forward fast. You might be able to catch reinforcements or convoys trying to sneak in or out. If you can spare a Fletcher or 2 they tend to get pretty deep without being detected and can wreck havoc on undefended shipping. Pretty hard to hit from the air too. Johns got some pretty good bases around there so you want to make him pay for everything he moves there.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 12:44:50 PM)

Actually, John's base network is remarkably slim. I think Ternate and Ambon are his only two decent airfields. Just about evertying else is a zero airield, including Sorong, Morotai, Manikwari, Lobolato, Boela (it might have a small field), Babo and a host of others.

Ambon and Ternate are too distant to create real problems early on.

If (always "if") tomorrow goes well at Manikwari, the herd then moves to Sorong, which is the most important Allied target - it gets four engineering regiments so that it can be built as big as possible as fast as possible.

I'll probably need at least two days at Sorong, but as soon as possible I want to move out from there towards the next target. There are two options: (1) move south towards Ambon (a major target) to prevent John from reinforcing; or (2) move to Morotai.

Events may dictate a different decision in a few days, but I'm leaning towards Morotai. I think it's more of a threat to John's inner line of defnese. If Morotai (which is one of my major targets) is taken in strength, then John is going to begin focusing on the defenses of Borneo and Mindanao. If I, instead, move south towards Ambon, then John's focus is more forward, on the Celbes, Moluccus, Borneo, Java.

So I think the more effective tactic is to focus north first.

Once I have Sorong attended to (no more than the second day of landings there) I'll feel comfortable detaching TFs to raid here and there.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 12:45:31 PM)

P.S. Search planes are already up at Nabire (the dot hex in western New Guinea) and Satawal, so I'm not blind (I hope).



Encircled -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 2:26:10 PM)

Us JFBs know we can't defend everywhere, so we try to do the best we can.

I think all of us have got that massive gap in our defences were you go

"I hope he doesn't notice that"

right up to the moment the whole USN turns up at it



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 3:24:24 PM)

Redacted: I just finished running seven miles up a mountain in Georgia heat and humidity. My brain was fried. Part II (Part I to follow, in a sequence that makes sense only to me in my addled state).



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 3:43:16 PM)

Redacted: I just finished running seven miles up a mountain in Georgia heat and humidity. My brain was fried.



poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 3:44:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Re: Sabang. Risking and losing approx. 7 divisions and supporting forces (most of which can be rebuilt) reduced the period of IJ initiative by at least 6 months. Huge win.

I think Alfred's point was that John III turned it into a win by not appropriately exploiting the Allied weakness in LCUs during the period the destroyed units were rebuilding.
I'm not sure I completely understand Alfred's expectations for the IJA after Sabang - they could go after China and Burma/Assam or even press further in SOPAC, but CR has shown that his current moves make all those areas irrelevant.


Except for VP harvesting purposes... don't underestimate LCU VPs. Also, I wonder if it would have been possible to bleed the Allied army device pools even more. That would be a gamebreaker if it got far enough.
LCU are essential for the capture and holding of bases from which to operate LBA and all naval forces. An abundance of LCU enables more flexibility in planning, a higher tempo of operations, and insurance against failed operations. All of those are advantages that allow best use of naval and air superiority.

As for the "disaster" at Sabang, I'd be willing to bet the Japanese would like to have utilized the 3 corps plus of LCUs devoted to Sumatra for the 6 months elsewhere. They would have been used against Allied defenders without the possibility of retreat, so they would have been racking up VPs, and they would have left the Japanese in better defensive positions (at least as far as Japanese choices as to the locations). The window of opportunity for the Japanese in the aftermath of Sumatra was greatly reduced by the time required to repulse the Allies and the concentration of forces necessary. Some of the forces were necessary as a strategic reserve, most had to recover from the effects of the battle and all had to be transported to future use locations. When the victorious Japanese LCU met their next enemies they also would have faced defenders with improved devices with adequate air defenses. I look at Sumatra as the Allies traded 6 months worth of losses they would have been inevitable all over the map for somewhat more losses at one location. The trade off was VPs from LCU for VP from captured territory. A kind of Russian strategy in reverse, sacrifice men for time and territory.

I was hesitant to use the word sacrifice, but that is how it turned out. A better word might have been gamble since there was the possibility of success for the Allied invasion. It was a big bet at odds making it worth risking for the Allies. It left them short stacked temporarily, but they had more chips coming to replace those lost.



Lecivius -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 4:34:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Redacted: I just finished running seven miles up a mountain in Georgia heat and humidity. My brain was fried.


Proof that exercise & sweat is bad for you [:D] I'll just sit here under the A/C & plot the ruin of several major financial institutions [sm=Evil-210.gif]



AcePylut -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/29/2016 5:22:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

In my Japan AAR game, this AAR made me look at the dot hex. I made a note of it for the future. It's so hard to see unless its pointed out to you! We are all becoming quite paranoid, indeed.


(waves hand all jedi-mind-trick style)

There is no need to tend to green dots... there is no need to tend to green dots... invade the US West Coast... invade the US West Coast...


LOL - turn will come tonite, I was sick last night.



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