RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/20/2016 1:18:39 PM)

Our setting is "to build." You're right - it saves a lot of clicking to turn that off early in the game, but I think it helped here. :)



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/20/2016 3:21:25 PM)

Ah, that would do it.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/20/2016 4:36:03 PM)

1/17/44

Third Ring: The big TF of APA and AKA unloads the entire 2nd Marine Div. in one day. Disablements run pretty high (100 squads) but disruption and fatigue are minimal. The invasion triggers an auto bombardment, which shows the enemy garrison at 16/c Division (about 98 AV) and South Seas Garrison (about 16 AV). The garrison runs heavy to engineers, so forts may be a problem. The pre-invasion bombardment is fairly effective:

Allied Ships
BB Tennessee
BB West Virginia
CA San Francisco
CL Columbia
CL Phoenix
DD Flusser
DD Reid
DD Satterlee
DD Barton
DD Wadsworth
DD Braine

Japanese ground losses:
553 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 11 disabled

Airbase hits 16
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 56
Port hits 11
Port supply hits 3

The auto-bombardment:

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 539 troops, 4 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 185

Defending force 9218 troops, 228 guns, 139 vehicles, Assault Value = 191

Assaulting units:
2nd South Seas Gsn
16th/C Division
42nd Road Const Co
38th Road Const Co
37th Const Co
A./50th JNAF Coy
14th JAAF AF Bn
60th Construction Battalion
14th JAAF AF Coy

Defending units:
2nd Marine Division

Tomorrow, CA Pensacola TF will bombard and DS dive bombers are giver "alternate" (ie, afternoon) orders to hit Gove. 2nd Marine Div. will bombard. It's 45% prepped, so I want to give it a few days before attacking. I also want to see if the bombardment carries any suggestion of "weakness" in the defenses.

Prior to the landing, Allies ASW sank about six SSX at Gove.

Somehow, Death Star ended up at Gove, where it's CAP was half-strength as a result. This was either a mistake (if I inadvertently set DS to take station here, but I don't think I did) or bad luck (if DS ended up a hex shy of its destination, which I think is the case, and took station here). These are the kinds of little things that could bite bad. Fortunately, though, enemy air didn't sortie on the day.

Roller Coaster: An Allied op is underway, but I cancelled (twice in the past month) due entirely to uncertainty about KB's location. The odds of KB heading back towards the Marshalls is very low, but the target was low priority but the ships involved were high-value. I just "lost that loving feeling." I'll try again later.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/20/2016 4:53:43 PM)

The effectiveness of that naval bombardment in a Jungle hex suggests that forts are not all that high. Level 2, max 3.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/20/2016 4:58:59 PM)

If that's true, it'll be good news. John built up Gove's airfield early in the game, so I've been assuming that forts would be a problem. Finding those engineers there reinforced that feeling.

If forts are low, 2nd Marines can handle the base with the assistance of a few more bombardments.

I'm most hopeful that Gove (or something else, like Bathurst) will tip John towards committing KB down this way. Let's see.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/20/2016 5:08:28 PM)

I'm thinking supply may have been an issue so he did not build as many forts as the engineers could have.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/21/2016 12:57:38 AM)

A quiet Sunday evening...no turn...so I offer a bit of information and analysis:

1. SigInt reports 56th Div. at Kaeving, following a string of reports that the unit was inbound to Rabaul after withdrawal from the Marshalls. With the Allies established so deeply in the DEI, Kaeving seems too forward to receive a division. If John plans to hold this far forward north of New Guinea, he's probably planning to attack on the south side, into the Big Tent AOO. I think KB will make for the DEI via the South China Sea, as Nagato did some weeks ago. (A 56th Div. fragment is at Loewoek, in the Moluccas, recon confirms that base is only weakly garrisoned.)

2. John has shifted a respectable number of fighters to Burma to defend Rangoon, Bangkok, Hanoi, and a few forward bases. The Allied bombing campaign that commenced on January 2 has been fairly effective. I think John has at least six divisions in Burma. The Allies bombers are working on them. I only have a rag-tag army of Indian divisions and UK brigades in theater - nothing to threaten John with. The objective is to draw enemy fighters into this theater...and the more divisions he posts here the better. There are no long-term plans to move on Rangoon or Bangkok, but eventually I do want to open the road into China.

3. If John moves KB to the DEI, I'm ready to move in CenPac. If he keeps KB in the Pacific, or if I'm unsure of its whereabouts, the advance will take place in the DEI. I have enough troops for both vectors, although premium shipping (AKA and APA) are mostly in the DEI at the moment.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/21/2016 1:35:46 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A quiet Sunday evening...no turn...so I offer a bit of information and analysis:



Now that it's 1944, what are your general 4E plans?



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/21/2016 1:36:45 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A quiet Sunday evening...no turn...so I offer a bit of information and analysis:

1. SigInt reports 56th Div. at Kaeving, following a string of reports that the unit was inbound to Rabaul after withdrawal from the Marshalls. With the Allies established so deeply in the DEI, Kaeving seems too forward to receive a division. If John plans to hold this far forward north of New Guinea, he's probably planning to attack on the south side, into the Big Tent AOO. I think KB will make for the DEI via the South China Sea, as Nagato did some weeks ago. (A 56th Div. fragment is at Loewoek, in the Moluccas, recon confirms that base is only weakly garrisoned.)

2. John has shifted a respectable number of fighters to Burma to defend Rangoon, Bangkok, Hanoi, and a few forward bases. The Allied bombing campaign that commenced on January 2 has been fairly effective. I think John has at least six divisions in Burma. The Allies bombers are working on them. I only have a rag-tag army of Indian divisions and UK brigades in theater - nothing to threaten John with. The objective is to draw enemy fighters into this theater...and the more divisions he posts here the better. There are no long-term plans to move on Rangoon or Bangkok, but eventually I do want to open the road into China.

3. If John moves KB to the DEI, I'm ready to move in CenPac. If he keeps KB in the Pacific, or if I'm unsure of its whereabouts, the advance will take place in the DEI. I have enough troops for both vectors, although premium shipping (AKA and APA) are mostly in the DEI at the moment.


If he is planning to attack, this is good for you, IMO. It's far too late in the timeline for him to be thinking about (counter)offensive operations. All you have to do is make sure you have enough to hold against the initial IJA landing (which is weak) and then crush him with airpower.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/21/2016 1:50:17 AM)

Loka: If John uses nuclear bombardments and KB while Death Star is absent, he should be able to re-take some of the minor Big Tent bases (Biak, Babar, Saumlaki). It should be difficult or impossible for him to take the major ones, unless he has a good month or more to work on them.

Moose: 4EB will eventually be given over almost entirely to strategic bombing. That's when I have bases in range, which should be by summer.

My use of 4EB in the game has been pretty weird. I stood them down entirely between early '434 and October '43. I doubt I had a single mission in six months. Then I began using them to suppress and reduce three key bases: Port Moresby, Horn Island and Merauke (to good effect, though the cost in aircraft has been high). I will continue to use them to reduce key garrisons (ie, operational roles) until I draw within range of the Home Islands and switch over to strategic use.

I finally re-activated the Indian air force on January 2 (after it stood down for about nine months) to hit strategic targets in Burma and to work on some IJ infantry units. Here the plan was simply to draw some of John's fighter corps away from the Pacific. He may have so many squadrons that this doesn't stretch him at all, but I'm giving it a try. At least there was the tangible benefit of shutting down Magwe's oil production and refinery.

My handling of 4EB in the game hasn't been stellar. I think that, my tepid record in attacking fortified hexes, and my failure to understand the limits of Allied fighter production early on, are my three biggest weaknesses in the game to date.

Continuing on that line of thought, I think perhaps my foremost accomplishment has been whittling down the Kaigun to the point where John has been unable or unwilling to commit it to defend the DEI. Going forward, I think the investment of ships and men towards that end will continue to pay big dividends.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/21/2016 2:01:01 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka: If John uses nuclear bombardments and KB while Death Star is absent, he should be able to re-take some of the minor Big Tent bases (Biak, Babar, Saumlaki). It should be difficult or impossible for him to take the major ones, unless he has a good month or more to work on them.

Moose: 4EB will eventually be given over almost entirely to strategic bombing. That's when I have bases in range, which should be by summer.

My use of 4EB in the game has been pretty weird. I stood them down entirely between early '434 and October '43. I doubt I had a single mission in six months. Then I began using them to suppress and reduce three key bases: Port Moresby, Horn Island and Merauke (to good effect, though the cost in aircraft has been high). I will continue to use them to reduce key garrisons (ie, operational roles) until I draw within range of the Home Islands and switch over to strategic use.

I finally re-activated the Indian air force on January 2 (after it stood down for about nine months) to hit strategic targets in Burma and to work on some IJ infantry units. Here the plan was simply to draw some of John's fighter corps away from the Pacific. He may have so many squadrons that this doesn't stretch him at all, but I'm giving it a try. At least there was the tangible benefit of shutting down Magwe's oil production and refinery.

My handling of 4EB in the game hasn't been stellar. I think that, my tepid record in attacking fortified hexes, and my failure to understand the limits of Allied fighter production early on, are my three biggest weaknesses in the game to date.

Continuing on that line of thought, I think perhaps my foremost accomplishment has been whittling down the Kaigun to the point where John has been unable or unwilling to commit it to defend the DEI. Going forward, I think the investment of ships and men towards that end will continue to pay big dividends.


Re what Loka is alluding to, why do you care if he retakes someplace like Biak? He expends fuel, ships, damage. He gets a base he can't supply. As has been discussed here, I doubt he knows how to play 1944, let alone 1945. His days of taking are over. Taking now is actually a bad thing for him.

On the 4Es, I was wondering if you're in range of any Oil at all? Burma? Failing that, night raids on HI through Manpower targeting? He has increasing HI taxes from here on, and he wants to build a new, 3rd gen. air force. I try to mix 4E missions up. Not all of them are anti-LCU. Some of the Chinese bases are reachable from some of Burma. Any supply you prevent in China is, in the long run, good for you.

And you are really concerned about the KB. You mention it about every post. [:)] You want it to come calling. It has one more good battle in it. If you take 2:1 losses (and I doubt you will) you still win. Do whatever route makes sense. Waiting until you know where the KB is wastes time.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/21/2016 2:19:32 AM)

Big Tent was built on the idea that I'd be leaving, that John would attack into the void, and that I might lose bases. So that's not a concern, except that I want to make sure that any losses are "efficient"; i.e., taking more time or resources than they are worth to John.

KB still worries me precisely because it has one more good battle in it. At the moment, Death Star (and any ships it's shepherding) can go anywhere it wants. It can go to China or the Home Island or circumnavigate Borneo. No Japanese LBA is strong enough to stop it. But if I do win (or lose) a carrier battle, my carrier numbers could drop to the point where DS is no longer "impregnable" until reinforcements arrive. So it's not a battle with KB that worries me, but rather the possible limitations it might temporarily impose.

Mobility is my biggest advantage now - the ability to untether from my base of operations and sail across the Pacific to do a Big Tent. If possible, I want to preserve that mobility. I'd rather not be confined (even temporarily) to a plodding advance.



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/21/2016 6:25:24 PM)

I'll breathe easier when you retake Horn Island.

This may seem gamey, but it's a game so... how are you working to turn the current Japanese "Minor Victory" into an Allied victory (referring to your post #8028)? The Japanese have 55,633 points versus Allied 40,156 points. Not only do you need to overcome the current deficit, you'll want to get at least 1.25% higher than the Japanese Victory Point score to win. You need ~30,000 points just to win using #8028 numbers.

Sinking the Kaigun won't get there by itself, but will be a force multiplier in that you'll have much more freedom to act when it's gone. Time is not your friend.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/21/2016 6:42:39 PM)

I pay close attention to Victory Points early in the game, when I'm gauging the possibility of Japanese auto-victory; and I'll pay attention late in the game, when I'm trying for an Allied auto-victory. In between, I'm aware of VP, but they don't determine strategy.

During this interim period, I focus on more of the "real life" aspects of winning a war. As you point out, my focus is foremost on the Kaigun. A side benefit of this is that it is also the strategy most likely to induce John to offer an unconditional surrender. I don't want him to surrender - I want the game to go deep and long. But if he does surrender, I'd like it to be because he doesn't have a navy left to fight with.

And I think whittling the Kaigun is the fastest and most sure way to set up the conditions necessary to achieve AV. If John doesn't have a navy left to contest Allied operations, then everything else will come (relatively) easily - interdicting his resources, hammering his industry from nearby airfields, and isolated and destroying pockets of his army.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 1:14:54 AM)

1/18/44 and 1/19/44

Third Ring: At Gove, CA Pensacola TF bombarded on the 18th (and replenished at Normanton the next day) and CA Suffolk TF on the 19th; 4EB from Normanton targeted the garrison both days; and Death Star dive bombers did so on the 19th. None of those gave any indication of a weakness in the garrison except that raw AV of 16th/C Div., as measured during the ground bombardment phase, dropped from 98 to 74 over the two days. 2nd Marine Div. is 48% prepped, so I'll try a deliberate attack in about two days.

All carrier TFs will move to Normanton tomorrow to replenish and refuel. The transports will also come in. They'll load the Horn Island invasion troops tomorrow. D-Day about four days off.

Roller Coaster: No sign of KB in the DEI, where I most expect her. But there was an unusual sighting in the Pacific today - lots of oilers out past Wake (see map to follow). If that's a true sighting, KB should be nearby.

Big Tent: Quiet in this AOO today.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/D109D6AF2BE9472E8456CC56D4F42E6B.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 1:15:34 AM)

A most curious sighting in the Pacific.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/C9EFEA912C0B4195BCF37CBBFF69BFDB.jpg[/image]



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 3:46:45 AM)

That ain't no puzzle to me. KB or BBs are around, plain and simple.

That, or he's dangling a red herring.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 3:51:53 AM)

It's got to be one of those two things. My guess is that this is a decoy (sticking with my hunch that KB is sneaking around Borneo on it's way to the DEI).



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 10:56:32 AM)

How are you getting sufficient fuel to Normanton to sustain naval operations when you don't have a clear route to bring in tankers?

Is it being pulled from east coast ports like Townsville?




Itdepends -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 12:08:56 PM)

Normanton will happily draw fuel up the road from EC bases and you can run tankers from Normanton to points north e.g. Darwin, Biak etc. its more efficient and less exposed than transiting past Horn island.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 1:07:04 PM)

That's what's happening here. Normanton is a level four port. The draw is probably aided by the fact that I have several score merchant ships disbanded in port that "need" fuel. And there are alot of troops there too (including HQ, which may help).

I have noticed thus far that when ships suck Normanton dry it doesn't draw overland again until tankers deliver (most of my deliveries are coming to Sydney and Townsville). That's probably a function of none of my major ports have an overstock of fuel.

AE is such a huge game that there are a huge number of bases that have the potential to play critical roles in a game, depending on the strategy employed by the two sides. In this game, Normanton has already proven vital. In previous games it was Coal Harbor (Victoria Island), Cocos Island, Diego Garcia, Port Blair and even Socatra, way back in the nether lands.

Variety = almost endless playability.



zuluhour -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 2:00:22 PM)

my 2 cents: that is a poor spotting job, you have elements of KB with oilers.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 2:15:57 PM)

Zulu, ordinarily I'd agree with you. But given the circumstances of this "matured" battlefield and comparative force allocation, I don't think so. Six months ago this would have been KB on a raid, but then the oilers would have trailed KB by 10 or 20 hexes, configured by John so that I couldn't get a bead on them and come in from behind to attack. If this is a KB raid, the carriers would still be way out in front.

But the odds of a KB raid in this area at this date are very low (almost non-existent). John is at a carrier disadvantage now and it's nearly imperative that he employ KB to stop the Allies in the DEI.

It really doesn't make a difference at the moment as I don't have anything vulnerable in harm's way in that part of the Pacific. I'll keep an eye on CenPac, but my guess is that KB is currently in the South China Sea (or possibly upgrading in the Home Islands).



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 3:52:33 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

AE is such a huge game that there are a huge number of bases that have the potential to play critical roles in a game, depending on the strategy employed by the two sides. In this game, Normanton has already proven vital. In previous games it was Coal Harbor (Victoria Island), Cocos Island, Diego Garcia, Port Blair and even Socatra, way back in the nether lands.

Variety = almost endless playability.

Just to avoid confusion, that should be Vancouver Island - Victoria is the provincial capital and largest city on the island.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 7:50:01 PM)

1/20/44

Third Ring (See map for many details): 2nd Marine Div. at Gove will attack tomorrow, mainly to gauge enemy strength. That will tell me if the campaign will be long or short, and if reinforcements are needed. I expect more ship bombardments to be needed before the base falls.

I had a sequence of oversights today that cost me lots of aircraft and one day (probably) on the Horn Island timetable. First, I have Death Star following a good ASW TF. This is fine and has worked great throughout the campaigning; but today it didn't work fine. The ASW TF reacted, meaning DS didn't make it to Normanton to refuel and replenish; plus, DS dive bombers remained in range of Gove and sortied without escort. John had CAP up. His fighters downed a goodly number of SBD5s and Hell Divers (Is that the name? I've suddenly gone blank.)

Secondly, John set some CAP over some ships at Hollandia that got hit by LBA SBD5s yesterday. I knew the CAP was coming, so I ordered P38s from Manokwari to sweep. They didn't, but the SBD5s went in unescorted and unhappily.

Thirdly, John had his strongest LRCAP over PM yet. They downed about a dozen 4EB, which got few hits on the day.

Enough "battle" transports reached Normanton to commence loading of the Horn Island assault troops. A RCT will load today. Tomorrow, the rest of the fleet should be in port so that 4th Aussie Div. can load.

Some refueling of the battle transports and another CA TF took place today. This kind of logistical progress warms the heart.

Roller Coaster (see map on following post for details): That AO TF is still steaming SE, banging drums and begging for attention. I'm not buying it.

Third Ring: Tons of preliminary steps being taken now. Troops prepping. Ships in motion to retrieve forward units slated for the op. Supply and fuel prepositioning. Plans being reviewed and revised. IE: fun.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/A4F981A8FA1D4C16A1AE2169B440CB62.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 7:52:10 PM)

Monitoring the mysterious AO TF steaming SE in CenPac, in plain sight.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/7D59945C4DBA4D31AE53184ECCD3DC1A.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/23/2016 10:13:59 PM)

I am a Hunch Whisperer. You gentlemen are Hunch Measurers. Let's see how my latest hunch measures up.

I'm on record (ad nauseum) as writing that John is most likely to next use KB in the DEI. I'm watching elsewhere: it might return to the Torres Strait; it might be in port upgrading; or it might be raiding in the Pacific (No way! I say.) But I think John'll send it into the DEI.

While hiking in the mountains today, I thought of a plan he might employ: target the shipping (including lots of good merchants, BB Pennsylvania, and CA Baltimore) at Boela. The airfield there has 230 good fighters, but LBA sweeps and KB in proximity would overwhelm that CAP and allow John to get some paintful licks in.

Boela is a good base, but it only has 200 aviation support. Tomorrow I'm going to move most of my ships and fighters to Sorong, which has 450 AV. The Big Tent fleet will hunker down there and permit John to attack, under the theory that the bloodletting would yield a good return on the investment.









GetAssista -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/24/2016 5:46:28 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
That's what's happening here. Normanton is a level four port. The draw is probably aided by the fact that I have several score merchant ships disbanded in port that "need" fuel. And there are alot of troops there too (including HQ, which may help).

I have noticed thus far that when ships suck Normanton dry it doesn't draw overland again until tankers deliver (most of my deliveries are coming to Sydney and Townsville). That's probably a function of none of my major ports have an overstock of fuel.

You can try make Normanton a home port for DS and BB groups for a couple turns. I think it will happily draw lots of fuel from EC in return. Starting from the second turn



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/24/2016 12:59:58 PM)

That's just what happened, GetAssista. Several turns ago, I set most of DS and the Herd to home port Normanton. That's when the fuel supply there jumped. Thanks for shedding light on how that happened.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (11/24/2016 5:42:39 PM)

1/21/44

The Pacific: I am a fickle Hunch Whisper. Today Saury sank one of the Japanese AO in the curious replenishment TF, down SE of Truk. This could be a diversion, but if John does need fuel forward in CenPac (or SoPac), he has important ships down there with an important mission. Perhaps he does intend to commit KB to the Torres Strait after all.

Big Tent: Still, what most worries me is a big raid in the DEI. Per yesterday's thoughts, I've shifted many of my best ships and fighter squadrons from Boela to Sorong. The latter has a bigger airfield and more aviation support. If nothing else, this will give John a different look. More of the reserve xAK and TK are going to unload fuel and supply (at both ports).

No troubling signs in the DEI today. Saumlaki airfield goes to level two; Morotai to level four. Both bases suspend airfield construction now to concentrate on forts.

Third Ring: The probing attack at Gove by 2nd Marine Div. shows four forts; casualties are light but favor the Allies. This little campaign will require reinforcements or (more likely) a series of strong bombardments.

IJ subs are concentrating in the Gulf of Carpentaria. ASW made many attacks today, but did little damage.

Normanton port facilities are overworked - so much replenishing, refueling, loading troops, etc. going on. Refueling didn't make much progress, but most carrier TFs now have 100% sorties. All air squadrons drew replacements, so the air arms are again at full strength.

Loading of 4th Aussie Div. and 9th Aussie base force commence tomorrow. Noone leaves until the carries refuel, which may take another day or two. Current estimate is that Horn Island D-Day is four days away.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/FC9D38F4E9A54E569839F55EDFEDE370.jpg[/image]



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