RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 4:17:31 PM)

I've had a repeat of a bug I experienced during the invasion of Sumatra. This is a weird one.

41st USA Div. was combat loaded on a huge amphibious TF and invaded Naga today. Only, it's now in Strategic mode!

The same thing happened yesterday - a base force in combat mode loaded aboard APDs came ashore at Burias in Strategic mode.

The same thing happened in Sumatra 18 months ago, when US 27th Div., in combat mode and aboard an amphibious TF, converted to Strategic mode after landing. That really threw a monkey wrench into the Sumatra invasion.

Fortunately, in this case it shouldn't be a decisive issue even though 41st Div. won't be able to attack a weak enemy garrison for two more days. I'm there to fight anyway, so if John send more troops in, all the better (I think). I may post the turn to the Tech Support thread for someone to look at. But I'll wait a few days so that John doesn't know something's up.



ny59giants -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 4:30:20 PM)

I save the last four days for every PBEM game I play in case I need to go back. I hope you have a similar set up and can go back to make sure it wasn't something you did. If you had multiple TFs in same hex (Amphib and Transport), I would double check to see if part of that divisions wasn't in a Transport TF.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 4:35:15 PM)

It was all combat loaded and only amphibious TFs were in the hex.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 4:46:02 PM)

The turn is a good one, mainly because there aren't any pitched battles. It was a peaceful day in the Philippines (peaceful before the storm), allowing Allied shipping to move about in good order.

I think John's burst of excitement was due mostly to the activation of kamikazes.

I'll post in detail later, but here's part of the SigInt report. 2nd Tank Div. is of particular interest, as regular readers know. I think it was symptomatic of John's larger issue - fighting to far forward while failing to properly attend to critical rear areas.

This has been like the last month of 1944 in Europe. The counterattacking German Army penetrated all the way to Antwerp (Celebes) in a dashing and violent advance that caught the world's attention and gave Germany hope.

But the Allies were strongly reinforcing, resupplying and refueling Patton's Army, which then went on the offensive and has penetrated into the Ruhr.

What happens next?



[image]local://upfiles/8143/BC01072923FC45B49885B46DBE28771E.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 6:11:20 PM)

4/5/44

Fun House: The invasion of Naga goes smoothly, except the weird conversion of 41st Div. to strategic mode left a sour taste in my mouth. John has a CDU unit there and it sank an xAP and damaged a few other ships.

Kaigun and KB remain the priority, but the most pressing job is to protect the invasion fleet while troops and supply get delivered. Due to the enhanced threat level, as I perceive it, ships are moving into a tight perimeter - Death Star and the Herd in one hex, Legaspi ships a hex to the west, Catanduanes amphibious assault ships a hex to the north. Every other ships is sprinting to join this perimeter. Attack is imminent, though not necessarily tomorrow.

See map for details.

DEI: John is not counterattacking down here. I deemed that a small possibility: that he might carry on his counterattacks, inspired by Celebes (Palapo fell today, by the way). I have my bases and ships buttoned down. A bit of troop fragment consolidation is going on. And fragments of 7th Australian Division are arriving each day. That division, along with 3rd Australian at Gove, will form the heart of the reinforcements that will head to the Philippines. That's later, once Fun House bases can stand on their own for awhile.

Burma: Lots of Allied bombing on the MLR but it will take awhile to gain an advantage that might persuade John to retire more.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/05DF62F25846498290ECEC2A15D72AB8.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 6:36:06 PM)

Enemy cruiser TFs raiding through passages in the Philippines is fodder for nightmares!

[image]local://upfiles/8143/CA333EC90D56449F9E76319098B85CD0.jpg[/image]



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 8:08:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I haven't seen those movies. She's a looker. :)


Risky Business is still one of my favorite movies. Not a Tom Cruise fan at all but he was perfect for this film. The scene on the subway train to the sound of Tangerine Dream-well, just don't get me started. Rebecca is hot. Very funny film.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 8:16:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Enemy cruiser TFs raiding through passages in the Philippines is fodder for nightmares!

[image]local://upfiles/8143/CA333EC90D56449F9E76319098B85CD0.jpg[/image]

Strange place to see those cruisers. I can't think of any routing that should take them to that hex on a SE course and then towards you, so maybe he is actually going to Jolo to join that mass of ships there? Possibly more combat ships or KB?

Also notable that there seems to be no enemy subs on either the previous map or this one. Maybe he sent them all around Australia looking for carriers going for upgrades?

As for KB - your sub screen on both sides of the Philippines should reveal it by their D/L, unless it is south of you.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 8:54:06 PM)

Heavy radio at Shanghai and Soerabaja... airbases, or seabases? Remember he can only convert 1 kami unit per turn.

I expect those cruisers to nibble at your southern stuff instead of gunning straight for Legaspi.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 9:06:27 PM)

1. Congratulations to Lokasenna for winning the "Fun House" office pool contest. A few weeks ago, he guessed "Legaspi, Naga and Aparri." You can see that the first two were right. And I have a division plus for the latter, if KB is removed from the equation.

2. Thanks for the kami pointer (one unit per turn). It's been 215 years since I last deal with Kamis (vs. Miller in my old Shattered Vow game). I remember next to nothing. My general impression is that you have to allow for them - they are dangerous, some will get through, but they aren't some kind of uber weapon that leaves the Allies without defenses.

3. Loka may be right about those cruisers. A couple of enemy torpedo boat squadrons tangled with a juicy (and empty, except for supply) amphibious TF near Leyte Gulf. John might be gunning for it.



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 9:08:48 PM)

When in doubt - John is gunning to kill something....he'll try to prune you around the edges & I would expect to start seeing counter-attacks fairly soon.

I'm surprised that he appears to be so out of position, but I guess his lunge back at the Celebes got his reserves committed in the wrong direction.

How long can your carriers remain on station?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 9:11:14 PM)

I went for another walk in the mountains, partly to probe the merit of my plan and force disposition for tomorrow. This time, I came away satisfied that the plan is a good one.

I also gave more thought to John's email message this a.m.: "Man--I wish we had a full day to get in 4-5 turns right NOW!  Bold, fun and crazy."

I read this as suggesting (probably unintentionally) that he would be ready for a big battle in several turns - 2 or 3 or 4 - but not quite tomorrow. He might also think my armada is moving north, towards northern Luzon and right into his wheelhouse. He's seen my armada weigh anchor, leaving Legaspi vacant, and move north a few hexes. It would be within reason to think I'll keeping coming that way.

If that's what he's thinking, my return to Legaspi tomorrow should catch him off guard a bit.

Unexpected changes in direction can bring on surprise meeting engagements, but they keep an opponent on his toes.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 9:14:37 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99
...How long can your carriers remain on station?


A month or two. Maybe longer. They are fresh and I brought along plenty of fuel, AKEs, ADs, etc. Barring a catastrophic loss among the support ships, Death Star will be right here come June 1.

John's probably unsure exactly what I have. I'm not going to tell him. Heck, I haven't even told you gents. But the armada includes more than 95 TFs, more than 1,000 ships, and a mighty host of carriers and combat vessels.

The foremost goal is to whack the KB or the Kaigun. I can't force John to come to me, but the set-up is about as sure to force his hand as anything I could do. And the Allied forces are well-configured to receive his attack (I think).



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 9:20:59 PM)

Good thing you aren't detail oriented... [:'(] [:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 9:27:34 PM)

BBFanboy, you're right about the subs. Death Star and the Herd ran into about ten of them in the Torres Strait and Gulf of Carpentaria, sinking 5 or 6. Perhaps DS and H have outrun them. They'll be here sooner or later, I suppose.

Thanks also for the D/L reminder. I've only been checking them sporadically - not all of them. So I just did - none are showing D/L. So KB probably isn't close by. And John hasn't been flying ASW over the Philippine waters since I started sending subs here two months ago. (For those of you reading, and commenting in, both AARs, please don't go post in John's, "Hey, you running ASW patrols in the Philippines?")



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 10:16:15 PM)

Honestly if now is not the time to commit the KB I don't know when is. Internal lines, big airfields, short hop to bring more air groups in , restricted waters and most of your air cover coming from one place. Not saying your pants are around your ankles but you are here for the duration. Enough aircraft and some, maybe many will get through. If the gods of war do not smile on you a bloody nose might be in order. Almost mimics real life



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 10:43:19 PM)

That's right, John.

And one reason I chose the Philippines is that I'm close to the DEI, so I too can draw on LBA. I went ahead and put two fighter squadrons at Legaspi - P47D25 and F4U-1A.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 10:51:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99
...How long can your carriers remain on station?


A month or two. Maybe longer. They are fresh and I brought along plenty of fuel, AKEs, ADs, etc. Barring a catastrophic loss among the support ships, Death Star will be right here come June 1.

John's probably unsure exactly what I have. I'm not going to tell him. Heck, I haven't even told you gents. But the armada includes more than 95 TFs, more than 1,000 ships, and a mighty host of carriers and combat vessels.

The foremost goal is to whack the KB or the Kaigun. I can't force John to come to me, but the set-up is about as sure to force his hand as anything I could do. And the Allied forces are well-configured to receive his attack (I think).


Oh-oh! Looks like someone is going to call for stacking limits on ships & TFs/hex!



Dirtnap86 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 11:41:25 PM)

I'm recalling something that I read about in an earlier AAR, Greyjoy against someone. In that he had an issue at the end of the AAR: A big enough strike will always get through. I think he lost something like the majority of his CVs and CVEs because the air combat algorithm just couldn't handle all the planes that were in combat (If I recall correctly it was something like 600-800 planes, per side).

I don't know if this ever got fixed or not, but I'd be cautious.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/18/2017 11:54:35 PM)

yup.....this is when he invaded Japan. yup, some planes will always get through. IIRC that was a weird combination of many, many planes and a a small bunch of targets. Good times. I think the community awarded Greyjoy the win despite the technical quirks. Really miss that guy



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 12:01:49 AM)

I have a bunch of carrier TFs, a bunch of combat TFs, and a massive number of merchant TFs. John may have some difficulty with efficient targeting due to distance. Too, eventually Allied airfields will confuse the picture and make things that much more hazy. I hope.

One big difference between this game and Greyjoy's is AA. Allied (and presumably Japanese) ships pack a much stiffer wallop now. If KB closes, John may lose a lot of strike aircraft to flak alone.

It's a complicated picture with risks, but I like my force composition. And I'd be much more afraid if John had big airfields at Iloilo, Roxas and Cebu. He left a big hole in his donut.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 12:03:57 AM)

John is running the next turn now. We'll know more fairly soon, I think. I'll watch the forum to see if he begins posting fast and furious. If so, he's excited. If not, he's not excited. That, in turn, will warm my heart.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 2:26:28 AM)

4/6/44

John didn't post much, correctly reflecting that the day was (mostly) quiet - and that's very, very good at this point.

Fun House: But, oh my, did the Allies flex their logistical muscles. 100,000 men landed at Legaspi, joining 18,000 that landed on D-Day.

2,000 AV is ashore. Must of this will rumble up the road to Naga, shoving aside whatever John has there. Then they'll probably make for Atimonan, unless by then John has reinforced significantly. Five American divisions and one Australian brigade are ashore on Luzon.

Just as important, a lot of support troops and supply came ashore. In particular, naval support, aviation support, engineers and flak will mean a lot as the days go on. I'll probably concentrate on airfield building for awhile. But Naga has a level 3 airfield, so that will help a lot.

My experience is that good airfields with fighters between my ships and enemy airfields is like clutter on a radar screen. It makes it hard for enemy LBA to target effectively. So getting Naga up and running, and Legaspi growing, is vital.

While the situation at Legaspi is encouraging, I'm far, far, far from being secure. If I lose a carrier battle, supply would immediately become an issue. Low supply and susceptibility to enemy bombardment TFs would make quick work of my army. So temporarily and until further notice, it's more important for me to maintain status quo than to take risks by striking even vulnerable looking enemy shipping.

Allied landing at Catanduanes unopposed. This is a good base with big airfield potential. It proximity to Legaspi will further confuse John's LBA, once I get the field operational (it starts at "0").

Death Star Helldiver sortied in modest numbers vs. rag-tag shipping at Manila, sinking three or four xAKL. The escort handled modest CAP consisting of 20 Georges. But I don't want this kind of little fry to siphon off sorties and good aircraft.

I think I'm going to move Death Star and the Herd away from Legaspi temporarily, a bit to the SW and further from Manila. That'll put me closer to the Mindanao fields, but not close enough to make me ill at ease.

Enemy combat ships (CL/DD TF and a CA/DD TF) came through the straits and hit shipping near Samar, sinking five LCI (I tried to get them disbanded - they only had two hexes to go, darn it) and an SC.

Allied subs sank an AK west of Borneo and damaged an AO north of Luzon (a bunch of AOs in that TF; ordinarily I'd say, "Ah ha!" but KB shouldn't need oilers really this close to the Home Islands. But I'll watch to see what happens.

CenPac: A strong enemy combat TF sighted at Ponape. I think, but I'm not sure, that John was anticipating a move here, too. His patrols sighted the amphibious TF that left Taobali a few days back, but I think it's too close to Hawaii for him to chase.

DEI: John is reconning Sansapor and showing increased interest in Sorong. SigInt reports an enemy brigade prepping for that base. I have 350 AV 100% prepped behind five forts in jungle terrain with a tremendous amount of supply and a big air force. So, let him try. If he can afford to send two divisions into the DEI, or if he thinks a division and his BBs (to bombard) can better serve here than in the Philippines...well, okay.

John has shows a penchant for chasing ephemera while I'm stabbing his guts. During Big Tent, he kept KB down in the Solomon Sea for months. I don't think he'll make that mistake again - I think he'll react strongly in the Philippines - but I'll watch. If he makes big moves in the DEI and keeps combat ships in the Marshalls, that'll limit him somewhat.

Burma: The front lines are static, but this is no sitskrieg. Lots of bombing and troop maneuvering going on.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/206851CB9C7A43D5AEC5C46452392A4A.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 2:39:29 AM)

In five days, the Allies have landed 195,000 troops at seven major bases (Taulad-Eilanden, Guiuan, Dinagat, Catbalogan, Legaspi, Naga and Catanduanes) and two minor bases Burias and Masbate. They've take all of those bases except Naga (and barring something really weird, that base will fall in two or three days).

Eight divisions and four RCT have landed. I think that's the bulk of the infantry (and most of the tanks and artillery are ashore also).

I prefer to target undefended bases during "deep" invasions because then I don't have to use my combat ships to bombard. Bombarding creates immediate ammo issues and weakens the fleet against enemy surface ships. Thus, bombardments are dangerous on these deep invasions and must be used cautiously and advisedly.

As you can see, at this point time and supply are the two things I need. Time to build base infrastructure. Supply for...well, you know.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 2:54:02 AM)

This probably isn't worth posting since the Marshalls are largely irrelevant, but the appearance of an enemy combat TF at Ponape and the sudden detection level on my retreating amphibious TF are interesting.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/C176810F8E3340BAB04ABA46F01D6916.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 3:26:22 AM)

A closer look at the Fun House map.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/64121F1645994982931F8CDAC551EBFB.jpg[/image]



bradfordkay -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 3:39:12 AM)

And you criticize Frank Jack Fletcher for pulling the navy out at Guadalcanal... I see both troops and loads of supply in the TF you have running away from Taongi. [:'(]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 3:50:31 AM)

Brad, you are going to love the reason for this....

...the unit that invaded Taongi is due to withdraw in 50 days. There's not need to supply it and no need to retrieve it. It took the base. It's job is done. It will soon disappear.



bradfordkay -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 3:55:53 AM)

So Scotty is going to beam them to the land of R&R? Tricky...



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/19/2017 4:16:15 AM)

I don't feel to bad about it. I've had that unit prepped for Taongi for months. Four times it's sailed from Pearl, only to be recalled due to the sudden appearance of enemy carriers or combat ships in the Marshalls. I was determined to allow those good men to do the job they had trained so long and hard for.



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