RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/2/2018 12:25:09 AM)

Just catching up after a week away so I will say belated Happy Birthday, Sir General Admiral! [:)] Glad to hear your cold did not put the kybosh on your tradition!

About the ships not moving for three days ; there was a discussion a few months back about a huge number of disbanded ships at SFO not appearing on the list when the port was selected. It turns out the problem was a limit of 1000 ships for a display. It suggests to me that (possibly) the same number might have been used for the number of ships the game engine can handle in the same hex. Once the carriers left the log jam burst, no?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/2/2018 1:49:12 AM)

Thanks, BBfanboy. Welcome back to the forums.

The high number of ships in the Herd is the only thing I can think of, though I'm not positive. I think I've had larger herds that didn't experience this problem. But I've experienced this issue a copule of times in one game and once in the other (the game with Erik). Each time, the logjam broke when I divided the TFs up and had some move separately.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/2/2018 1:53:20 AM)

As you guys can probably tell, I'm not a huge football fan.

My wife and I both graduated from the University of Georgia. I was in the Sugar Bowl when Georgia beat Notre Dame for the national championship in 1980. I was there the next year when they lost to Pittsburg. But over the years, my interest in football waned. The last game I went to was in 1997. I doubt I'll go to another.

But I still pull for the Dawgs to win. Tonight, wife, myself, and my two sons watched the game at a local barbecue restaurant (since we don't have a t.v.) My youngest son leaves for Georgia tomorrow. But he cares nothing for football whatsoever. He cared not one whit that Georgia was playing Oklahoma. For the rest of us it was a fun game to watch. And for my daughter, a Dawgs fan who lives in Knoxville, and for my father-in-law, a UGA graduate who my youngest son will be living with now. And for a host of other relatives - aunts, uncles, brothers-in-law, nephews, etc. that attended Georgia.

It was a shame that either team lost that game. Oklahoma is stout.



Grotius -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/2/2018 7:48:27 PM)

Happy New Year, Canoe! I'm enjoying your AAR; it's great to see a game in 1945. I also enjoyed your hike photos. Keep up the good work!



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/2/2018 7:58:05 PM)

Grotius drops by
and writes a friendly greeting
then gone like the wind

P.S. So good to see you, Grotius. Thank you for stopping by. It's always a treat to have you pop in for a visit.





Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/2/2018 11:26:42 PM)

John has been away since Friday to visit his Mom. He emailed me yesterday from someplace like Curry, Kansas, that he was on his way home and would send a turn this morning. That was the last I heard from him. I have no actual confirmation that he made it home, yet I feel that he must have. Else, I would have felt a disturbance in the Force, after playing against him for so many years. He probably got home, fell asleep, and then got called into work abruptly.

I'm leaving town very early tomorrow morning to take Youngest Son to the University of Georgia. I shall return Thursday night. Hopefully by then John will have regained his bearings, as I'd like to resume the game.





CaptBeefheart -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/3/2018 4:47:53 AM)

Happy New Year! Hiking is a great pastime. I was doing a lot of hiking in Seoul (believe it or not, there are a lot of small mountains and plenty of trails within the city limits) until I finally did in one knee last summer, requiring surgery. Still, I'm hoping to have that sucker rehabilitated by Spring.

There's some grumbling on the other AAR about all those troop losses you had at Sumatra, and that any Allied commander responsible would have been sacked. To that I'd say: 1) this is a game, and the VP mechanism is there to handle losses; and 2) not using the full KB to challenge the invasion of the PI or subsequent closer invasions would have gotten the IJ commander sent to command the garrison at Etorofu. Anyway, it's a very entertaining game and I'm glad both of you gents play it like a game.

Cheers,
CC



Alfred -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/3/2018 9:55:23 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

...There's some grumbling on the other AAR about all those troop losses you had at Sumatra, and that any Allied commander responsible would have been sacked. To that I'd say: 1) this is a game, and the VP mechanism is there to handle losses; and 2) not using the full KB to challenge the invasion of the PI or subsequent closer invasions would have gotten the IJ commander sent to command the garrison at Etorofu...

Cheers,
CC


To which can be added that many mistakes made by players in AE, if replicated in real life, would have seen the responsible (and in some cases someone else made a scapegoat) commander sacked. IRL battles are lost and commanders sacked but the country doesn't automatically sue for peace.

Much more importantly is the utter failure of the Japanese High Command to exploit the Sumatra success. At the time I posted in this AAR several options to exploit the victory. None of them were employed by Japan. I don't know if any of them were suggested over at the other AAR but I doubt they were and if they were they were clearly dismissed by John 3rd.

The few Japanese AARs that I bother to drop by too often are dominated by discussions of aircraft R&D and tactical considerations. The air is full of cries of Banzai and fine tuning the economy, particularly aircraft production. Proper strategic discussion takes a back seat. Which is the absolute reverse order of what is important.

I have been following the games played by these two opponents for more than a decade now. Canoerebel is the strategist whereas his opponent is only a tactician. In any game where strategy is paramount, the strategic player will consistently, over the course of the game, outplay the tactical player. The tactician will gain the odd victory but not the ultimate victory if his strategic opponent is employing sound strategy.

I recommend that people look up the career performances of Bogoljubov against Alekhine, and Samisch against Nimzowitsch. In relative terms Canoerebel is Alekhine or Nimzowitsch whereas John3rd is Boboljubov or Samisch. The career records strongly favour the superior strategist.

Alfred



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/3/2018 2:49:02 PM)

I think John neglected to build up his interior defenses or at least Dan found a soft spot in those defenses. Luzon and Formosa did not have the fortified, interlocking based and airfields that would have made them harder to knock over. Easy enough to make planes and move troops around. Much harder to have the vision to have worthy bases to put them. I expect John may have done better in Singapore, the Marianas and the DEI, but that was not the attack vector. Good defensive line in China but just not enough supply. Not sure why Shanghai has not more of a fortress. Supply I guess



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/3/2018 3:31:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I think John neglected to build up his interior defenses or at least Dan found a soft spot in those defenses. Luzon and Formosa did not have the fortified, interlocking based and airfields that would have made them harder to knock over. Easy enough to make planes and move troops around. Much harder to have the vision to have worthy bases to put them. I expect John may have done better in Singapore, the Marianas and the DEI, but that was not the attack vector. Good defensive line in China but just not enough supply. Not sure why Shanghai has not more of a fortress. Supply I guess

In addition to the supply issues, I think John does not have enough interest in ground warfare and logistics (including building bases/forts) in general to do all the tedious work involved. He likes to do turns quickly and get some exciting action going (I have the same impulse to keep under control), so I think he just did not devote the time necessary to plan and build - and position the forces needed to move on the next objective. I think his busy work/family/church commitments are part of the reason for this lack of attention to detail.

At any rate, his superficial efforts resulted in a forward offence/defence strategy that was much like an egg - a brittle shell that was not tough enough to give long term resistance. But I applaud his resilience in playing on while his empire crumbles and his hoped-for victories from his new ships have been pyrrhic at best.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/3/2018 4:05:37 PM)

In all fairness to John I don’t think he has ever played this deep. He seems to have developed a good outer defense. Once that got bypassed however, there just wasn’t a real strong inner shell. I suspect he is not the first Japanese player to miss this. I think his next game will be a bit different for him.



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/3/2018 4:30:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Nimzowitsch

"Thou shalt not shilly shally!" - Aaron Nimzowitsch, My System

[:)]



Zorch -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/3/2018 5:13:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

...There's some grumbling on the other AAR about all those troop losses you had at Sumatra, and that any Allied commander responsible would have been sacked. To that I'd say: 1) this is a game, and the VP mechanism is there to handle losses; and 2) not using the full KB to challenge the invasion of the PI or subsequent closer invasions would have gotten the IJ commander sent to command the garrison at Etorofu...

Cheers,
CC


I recommend that people look up the career performances of Bogoljubov against Alekhine, and Samisch against Nimzowitsch. In relative terms Canoerebel is Alekhine or Nimzowitsch whereas John3rd is Boboljubov or Samisch. The career records strongly favour the superior strategist.

Alfred

Alekhine was every bit as good a tactician as Bogolyubov. See their game from Hastings 1922.
I would argue that Samisch and Bogolyubov did not know when not to attack. [:D]



Alfred -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/3/2018 5:55:51 PM)

I've always greatly enjoyed Hans Kmoch's parody of Nimzowitsch in this fictional game.

http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1334664&kpage=1

Samisch was quite a good player but suffered terribly from inability to manage his time.  He once lost on time still to make his 5th move.

Alfred



Zorch -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/3/2018 6:07:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

I've always greatly enjoyed Hans Kmoch's parody of Nimzowitsch in this fictional game.

http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1334664&kpage=1

Samisch was quite a good player but suffered terribly from inability to manage his time.  He once lost on time still to make his 5th move.

Alfred

[:D] Poor Aron took himself way too seriously.
Kmoch's Pawn Power in Chess is a great book in its own write.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/4/2018 7:36:56 PM)

Wife and spent yesterday "orienting" Youngest Son to the sprawling University of Georgia campus. The university now has 37,000 students. It had 22,000 when Wife and I were there in the early and mid-1980s. It had 6,000 when my father-in-law graduated in the mid 1950s. Despite the growth, many buildings are the same as in 1986, so we were able to show Youngest Son the buildings and the best ways to get to and from them. He's living off-campus with his grandfather - 25 miles away in the old family house on a small pond. It's been a heckuva lot of fun doing all this. He left today at noon for his first class, which he's now completed. Two more to follow this afternoon and evening. Wife and I won't be here when he gets back tonight. We'll be on the way back home to see what life is like without Youngest Son at home.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/4/2018 7:50:19 PM)

Thanks for all the posts and comments. I've read through many of them. It was nice to have Alfred post. I'd be lying if I didn't say it was encouraging to read his positive comments (I hope he doesn't take this as a challenge to balance his comments now).

Alfred is right that the Sumatra situation should have turned to Japan's advantage. But if I'd been playing the kind of player that would've turned it to his advantage, I probably wouldn't have invaded in the first place. After more than a decade of playing John, I knew he was likely to leave holes and to react to strongly to Allied moves far away.

I made the decision to quietly "forsake" Sumatra in mid January 1943, even though it managed to hold out until the summer. I fought hard and had some hope that something might work out there, but mainly I focused on re-orienting the Allied attack to the Pacific. It worked handsomely, IMO.

Both John and I have learned a great deal in this game. I know far more than when we started this match. And I'm frustrated at all the gaps in my knowledge - especially tactical matters with the air war.




Lecivius -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/4/2018 8:12:01 PM)

Empty nest hurts. I was stunned at how it affected me.

Hurt more when the school expenses started to show [:D]



ny59giants -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/4/2018 8:20:46 PM)

I would strongly recommend you play Japan at least once Dan. I'm still an AFB at heart, but there are challenges as Japan that are quiet enjoyable. If you have issues with the economy, I could always make a side trip from Chattanooga from work to stop by and get you up and running with Tracker (a must have for me).



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/4/2018 8:39:56 PM)

Thanks, Michael.

There is no question I'd benefit tremendously by playing as the Japanese side.

There's be one disadvantage - removing another block of "fog of war" that makes each match so enjoyable. For me, each game is like unwrapping a surprise present. If I play as Japan, I'll be a better player but some of that surprise will vanish forever. Is it worth it?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 5:14:21 AM)

3/15/45

Asia: Death Star is closing in on Formosa now, and just a few days from the Yellow Sea. IJ army still hasn't closed on the key hex NE of Gunzan. Big air battle over Gunzan as John sent in bombers and kamikazes. The raids proved disastrous for Japan (more about that in a separate post).


[image]local://upfiles/8143/4EF29D51F71847639B134035A053F9C5.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 5:21:14 AM)

3/15/45

Air Losses: Most of John's air losses today were involved in the strike/kamikaze sorties vs. Allied shipping at Gunzan. The strike aircraft scored three hits, one each on a DD, LST and APA. None of them are in danger.

I figured that at some point John would have to begin attacking against his wishes. This may be the start of that trend. I dont know if the poor results today will dissuade him or if he's reached the point of attacking no matter what. Things are getting pretty desperate for him.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/80677828777749208CDD74378A30D698.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 5:23:15 AM)

I should add that most of the Allied losses were aircraft involved in the 2EB raids vs. enemy stack SE of Keijo, Korea. These attacks have been pretty effective, despite moderate losses to Allied aircraft. Slowing down and weakening his army before it arrives at Gunzan has been a high priority mission the past week.



Barb -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 6:23:58 AM)

How is that he had lost 24 J1N1-C Irvings (21 in the air, 1 by flak and 2 by ops) during the day? And 23 Ki-46-III Dinahs, oh my!
Both are a Long Range Reconnaissance planes! Or did he used them on Kamikaze mission profile? Its payload should be close to 0 so the resulting damage from kami strike would be minimal...

If its used as Recon or on NavS mission, its helluwa lot of losses. And using it as Kami is sheer waste. [X(]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 3:38:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody
Happy New Year! Hiking is a great pastime. I was doing a lot of hiking in Seoul (believe it or not, there are a lot of small mountains and plenty of trails within the city limits) until I finally did in one knee last summer, requiring surgery. Still, I'm hoping to have that sucker rehabilitated by Spring.

There's some grumbling on the other AAR about all those troop losses you had at Sumatra, and that any Allied commander responsible would have been sacked. To that I'd say: 1) this is a game, and the VP mechanism is there to handle losses; and 2) not using the full KB to challenge the invasion of the PI or subsequent closer invasions would have gotten the IJ commander sent to command the garrison at Etorofu. Anyway, it's a very entertaining game and I'm glad both of you gents play it like a game.

Cheers,
CC


That's a fair grumble on their part. I would've been sacked during or immediately following Sumatra. I made that point back then on numerous occasions.

And you're right about John being sacked (by his hand or others). He might've been sacked following the big carrier battle. Not because he lost - Yamamoto lost a carrier battle - but because he steamed around blindly for weeks when he shouldn't have, didn't need to and should've had navsearch running.

Following the carrier battle, I don't think the supreme IJ commander would've been sacked for the DEI invasion (though the officer in charge of preparations might've been). John reacted and fought and tried gamely to counter that move. But there's no doubt a series of IJ commanders would've been sacked (or committed seppuku) following Luzon, China, Formosa, China again and Korea.





Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 3:39:21 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb
How is that he had lost 24 J1N1-C Irvings (21 in the air, 1 by flak and 2 by ops) during the day? And 23 Ki-46-III Dinahs, oh my!
Both are a Long Range Reconnaissance planes! Or did he used them on Kamikaze mission profile? Its payload should be close to 0 so the resulting damage from kami strike would be minimal...

If its used as Recon or on NavS mission, its helluwa lot of losses. And using it as Kami is sheer waste. [X(]


I think the Irvings were being used as kamikazes. I think one scored a hit that did minimal damage (as you'd have guessed).



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 3:58:45 PM)

Via email and comments in a main-page thread, John has stated his opposition to Victory Points. I think he feels that he can determine when Japan surrenders and that it's based on the economy or other subjective factors that he decides. He and I haven't discussed this yet, but here are my thoughts.

We're playing a game with established victory conditions. I think the Allies are about to meet those conditions (by May 1945). By that measure, the Allies will have achieved a decisive victory.

Does "Decisive Victory" seem warranted in this situation? IE, per some of Loka's comments in other threads, he makes a very good case that Victory Points may not be properly balanced yet. In close games, therefore, there might be room for further "human" evaluation.

In this game, though, the victory margin is going to be substantial and well ahead of the historic timeline (unless the wheels come off, which is possible).

Moreover, the Allies are far, far ahead of historic pace. By early 1945 in real life, Allied 4EB were hitting Japan from the Marianas. In this game, they've been hitting Japan from Luzon, Formosa, China and Korea for months. Territorially, the Allies have taken far, far more territory than taken in real life - and that territory is meaningful, significant ground close to the Home Islands.

This has been achieved in a mod in which Japan had a number of advantages, especially at sea and in the air and per some house rules. That's what I wanted - a stronger Japan able to fight harder and deeper. Yet despite those advantages, Japan has been pushed much further back much sooner than in real life.

The Japanese economy, according to John, is still humming. The Strategic Bombing points might paint a different picture. The Allies have scored 27.2k to this point, meaning that Japan has been under heavy aerial attack.

But aside from that, John chose a rather unorthodox strategy - allowing me to penetrate deep without opposition. In order to take advantage of the opportunities, I struck deep and elected to forego territory off to the sides. So John's strategy preserved for him the DEI. In order to concentrate deep, I've also mainly ignored his convoys running from the DEI back to the Home Islands. Give and take on both sides.

Now the Japanese military leaders and people are looking at the Emperor, who keeps saying, "But we still have the DEI! Our economy is still humming?" Their reply? "You allowed them to take Luzon and didn't attack, selling us on another course of action. You did the same in China. And Formosa. And Korea. And now the Allied dogs are sitting on our doorstep hammering our navy, hitting our Homeland, and apparently poised to increase the pace of punishment. And yet you never unleashed the Imperial Navy or the Divine Wind. You hung back...and when finally pressed, sent them in piecemeal to get chewed up ineffectually. We're replacing you and suing for peace."




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 4:06:00 PM)

If I do achieve a decisive victory by game criteria in the next few months, I'll continue to play as long as John wishes to. But I do think the pace of destruction to Japan's military and economy is going to increase significantly in the next six weeks. The Allies are positioned to strike hard and the Japanese navy has begun to bleed badly.




MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 4:13:47 PM)

Victory points can be biased and ambiguous...
Clarity in Surrender or Annihilation



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/5/2018 4:24:25 PM)

Victory Points are objective.

"Surrender or Annihilation" is subjective. John can literally choose to play until the last dot hex is taken and declare "victory" when that happens in 1948.

What's not biased or ambiguous is the comparison of where the Allies are here compared to the real war. Pretty decisive victory by that measure, which corresponds to the game's Victory Conditions. Not biased. Not ambiguous.



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