RE: Realism discussion (Full Version)

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Walloc -> RE: Realism discussion (8/19/2013 12:01:20 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SigUp

quote:

ORIGINAL: Walloc

First off. If u read this Sigup and u had an a game vs AI at turn 52 right?
If so, as we cant possibly see the pool from the minors, as they arent listed in the AARs so would u check urs and post them here please.

Yes, I'm playing the AI, right now it's turn 53 and the German (my) summer offensive is under way. As for the manpower pools:

Germany: 264.329
Finland: 2.167
Italy: 36.820
Rumania: 8.993
Hungary: 83.594
Slovakia: 19.872

EDIT: The OOB numbers for the minors

Rumania: 670.622
Hungary: 450.927
Italy: 325.689
Finland: 247.725
Slovakia: 40.005


So in this case for the rumenians approximatesly as its a few turns earlier its not 100% accurate.
715+33k reinforcement+126k replacements= 874-670+9k om pool = 195k losses-3k is in replacements for teh last 2 turns as this is 53 vs 55 or around 192k in all.

Hungarians. 450k and start at 434 addation of 16k and withdrawls/reinforcements are equal
107k in replacements 83k in pool +16k more on map for a loss of 8k!

Slovaks 40k man on map. Starts with 81-43 in withdrawls = 38k = 2 more on map.
Replacement 23k pools, 20k for a combined loss of 1k!!

Finns 248k on map. Starts 358+80k-135k( i did recheck amd revised the withdrawls number)
303k-248k lost 55k replacement 33k in pool 2k another 31k lost for 86k.

Italians irrellevant but if u want numbers. 906*27*9/10 + 906*25*8/10 38k ish replacements and pool at 36k for 2k lost.

Now sigup game isnt Mike vs Kamils, so u cant directly apply those number. Still it gives some pointers.

I said the rumenians would lose 150-180k it was 192k and i used the 170k number in my calcs.
22k to low.
Hungarians only lost 9k vs my bet of 45k 36k to high
Italians 2k vs by bet of 10k 8k to high.
Slovaks lost 1k vs my bet of 10k, 9 to high
finns 86k vs my 40k

In all added and subtrackted in the case of Sigups game a difference of 15k out of a guess of 275k.

If my bet in the Mike vs Kamil was 15k off it would make the percentage of lost of total for axis minors at 13.25% not that u can directly make that conclusion, but its interresting.

This isnt any thing conclusive and maybe Sigup is willing to give us his full loss number including disabled pools so that can be back tracked so see how high the % was of axis minors losses in his game so far.

Still this do indeed point toward the problem in ur numbers not taking into account the pool and counting all replacement as losses.

Kind regards,

Rasmus




Gabriel B. -> RE: Realism discussion (8/19/2013 10:40:16 AM)

I did a mistake for which I whish to appologise , I was looking at the overal casulties on turn 47 instead of 55 .




Walloc -> RE: Realism discussion (8/19/2013 11:16:09 AM)

We all make mistakes, nothing to apologiese for. [:)]




Gabriel B. -> RE: Realism discussion (8/19/2013 12:16:58 PM)

I did not bother to compute slovakia , italy or hungary because i was certain their losses were low.

RAsmus in your opinion from where the extra german manpower comes , ariving units or returning disabled ?

the manpower production seams ok except maybe for Poland .




gingerbread -> RE: Realism discussion (8/19/2013 1:08:42 PM)

Hiwi?




Walloc -> RE: Realism discussion (8/19/2013 4:14:52 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Hiwi?


That is certainly part of it, in particular in regards to the date they are introduced in game. IIRC in the math i did that is on the other computer i put that number in the 100-130k range as a conservative estimate based on what i saw in my own games and when i asked ppl for numbers from AARs. A problem is that the variation between games depending on number of PoWs and captured cities makes the number vary by a fairly large degree from game to game. That said the math was from before a bug was found concerning Hiwi creation. I dunno how much and if so it has possibly affected the hiwi numbers.

Any how i got a pbem turn waiting and then dinner ill answer more fully later. There are more to the story than Hiwi's.

Kind regards,

Rasmus




Powloon -> RE: Realism discussion (8/20/2013 10:49:00 AM)

I think this debate will always center around people who see this as simply a game with a historical setting and thus play it within whatever parameters the game allows versus those who would prefer it to be more of a historical simulation and hope that it will play out with some semblance of history. I don't think this kind of debate is unique to WITE and it will take a very clever games company indeed to create a game which caters to both these groups.

Some of the problems I think with treating this game as a historical simulation are the number of factors which are not modelled for probably very good design reasons ie the designers have commercial concerns and don't have the luxury of spending a decade producing a game which covers every facet of the conflict.

One of those historical factors with this conflict which is not modeled is the dead weight of the command decisions which both dictators made such as their insistance on no retreat during various periods (other than the odd commander being executed or retired). Without this modelling a historicaly plausible outcome goes out the window on turn 1 with the Soviets free to retreat from the border in 41 and the Germans having the option to retreat during the blizzard. Having said that I'm guessing a proportion of gamers would want the freedom to make there own decisions and would not want to play the game constrained by the crazy decisions of Hitler or Stalin.

One decision I have never really understood (and again was probably made for very good reasons) was giving both sides differing methods of production. Whilst this probably works in single player I think it will always cause problems in muliplayer where the human player in charge of Soviet production can create very ahistorical OOBs.

Still in summary I still think this is a great game which will hopefully be revisited after the release of WITW




Aurelian -> RE: Realism discussion (8/20/2013 11:34:30 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Powloon

I'm guessing a proportion of gamers would want the freedom to make there own decisions and would not want to play the game constrained by the crazy decisions of Hitler or Stalin.



The designer's intent was just that. You get to make your own mistakes/decisions. And really, as the Axis player, do you *really* want to deal with Hitler's? decisions? He did lose after all.




Dangun -> RE: Realism discussion (8/20/2013 11:38:06 AM)


quote:

I think this debate will always center around people who see this as simply a game with a historical setting and thus play it within whatever parameters the game allows versus those who would prefer it to be more of a historical simulation and hope that it will play out with some semblance of history.


I don't really see any difference in the core interests of these two groups.

Both 'gamers' and 'historians' want the average game to run close to the historical time line and result. They both want variations from history to be a result of luck, historically available choices, and skill.

Neither 'gamers' nor 'historians' like the game to introduce conditions that cause a big variance from history e.g. the vicious blizzard we apparently have.

But what creates the most discord between 'gamers' and 'historians' is when the gamers find an effective a-historical and historically unavailable/implausible strategy. But this is not their fault. Neither 'gamers' nor 'historians' like it when the game design creates strong incentives to use historically unavailable/implausible strategies like: the Soviet flee on turn 1, of the German blizzard retreat.




Powloon -> RE: Realism discussion (8/20/2013 12:45:14 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian
The designer's intent was just that. You get to make your own mistakes/decisions. And really, as the Axis player, do you *really* want to deal with Hitler's? decisions? He did lose after all.


I'm sure some players would [:)]

Personally I would like to see some indirect affects possibly such as a revised victory points system where major cities give VPs per turn and thus incentivise a Soviet player for holding forward whilst conversley discouraging German players retreating into Poland during the blizzard (a good example of what a gamer might do because it can make sense in context of the game but anathama to a historical player). Or possibly during the periods where a stand fast order is in place leaders must make a successful roll against there political stat or else have their units suffer further penalties on their movement points




SigUp -> RE: Realism discussion (8/20/2013 12:47:59 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Dangun


quote:

I think this debate will always center around people who see this as simply a game with a historical setting and thus play it within whatever parameters the game allows versus those who would prefer it to be more of a historical simulation and hope that it will play out with some semblance of history.


I don't really see any difference in the core interests of these two groups.

Both 'gamers' and 'historians' want the average game to run close to the historical time line and result. They both want variations from history to be a result of luck, historically available choices, and skill.

Neither 'gamers' nor 'historians' like the game to introduce conditions that cause a big variance from history e.g. the vicious blizzard we apparently have.

But what creates the most discord between 'gamers' and 'historians' is when the gamers find an effective a-historical and historically unavailable/implausible strategy. But this is not their fault. Neither 'gamers' nor 'historians' like it when the game design creates strong incentives to use historically unavailable/implausible strategies like: the Soviet flee on turn 1, of the German blizzard retreat.

I do agree that the blizzard is far too strong. But you ought to mention the unrealistic logistics in this game. More than anything, the logistics are one of the central problems, as the logistics allows offensives for both sides to be sustained close to indefinitely, especially if you use aerial resupply. German advance effectively doesn't stop until the blizzard, with the exception of mud. And from 1943 onwards the Soviets can fuel their offensives until game's end, once again only stoppable by the mud.




Aurelian -> RE: Realism discussion (8/20/2013 5:14:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Powloon

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian
The designer's intent was just that. You get to make your own mistakes/decisions. And really, as the Axis player, do you *really* want to deal with Hitler's? decisions? He did lose after all.


I'm sure some players would [:)]




[:D]

True, then the Sovs would get to deal with Stalin's. But then again, he did win.




loki100 -> RE: Realism discussion (8/20/2013 7:42:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Dangun

Both 'gamers' and 'historians' want the average game to run close to the historical time line and result. They both want variations from history to be a result of luck, historically available choices, and skill.

Neither 'gamers' nor 'historians' like the game to introduce conditions that cause a big variance from history e.g. the vicious blizzard we apparently have.


I think this is spot on. In part as, as I;ve confessed above, I don't have a clue where good game play and legitimate understanding of the game systems ends, and cheese begins. Equally if I want to see a perfect re-enaction I'll watch a documentary or reread Erickson.

The first turn and the blizzard problems are well rehearsed but I still think the root issue is the permissive logistics system. I can cope with an over the top turn 1, and would still be prepared to gamble on a fighting retreat, if the axis side was using MPs in the 20-30 range for a portion of their army. Add in the turn 1 destruction and MPs>30 and you have a radically different game. Equally I think in turn, an axis active defense in the blizzard is more feasible if the Soviets are struggling with their supply lines.

if there is someway to dampen down the logistics model then I think a lot of the current split on this forum between 'gamers' and 'historians' would die down. There is so much in this game that is brilliant that its a pity to see the PBEM potential lost in a welter of min-max strategies. In some ways SP against the AI can give a better game (even if it is the impact of mud, not logistics that imposes a rythym to a campaign) but what you then lack is the creative intelligence a human opponent brings. The AI is good tactically and operationally, but its the last bit, worrying what your opponent is up to, that is missing.




swkuh -> RE: Realism discussion (8/22/2013 8:12:46 PM)

And the logistics & transportation factors cannot be adjusted to moderate the issue?





loki100 -> RE: Realism discussion (8/22/2013 9:46:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rrbill

And the logistics & transportation factors cannot be adjusted to moderate the issue?




well that is exactly what we are trying to test at the moment ...




Schmart -> RE: Realism discussion (8/23/2013 5:11:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: rrbill

And the logistics & transportation factors cannot be adjusted to moderate the issue?




well that is exactly what we are trying to test at the moment ...


I've been thinking of adjusting the logistics and transport settings for a while, but never gotten around to it. What is being tested? Settings at 50%? 75%? ...




SigUp -> RE: Realism discussion (8/23/2013 5:27:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Schmart


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: rrbill

And the logistics & transportation factors cannot be adjusted to moderate the issue?




well that is exactly what we are trying to test at the moment ...


I've been thinking of adjusting the logistics and transport settings for a while, but never gotten around to it. What is being tested? Settings at 50%? 75%? ...

Logistics at 75. And for a player of my caliber (an admittedly not good one, go to the AAR and convince yourself [:D]) 75 is perhaps even a little bit too low. Without bomber fuel supply my logistics crashed on turn 3 and even on the following turn the mobile units were more or less on standby. For historical play this little test match is positive. My pacing is more or less exactly like the historical one. Though in the GC I think I could have had more trouble with reinforcements not being locked for a time like in the Smolensk scenario. What I am curious about is, whether these settings can also put a damper on the unrealistic penetrations of the Soviets during the blizzard.




loki100 -> RE: Realism discussion (8/23/2013 6:13:58 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Schmart
I've been thinking of adjusting the logistics and transport settings for a while, but never gotten around to it. What is being tested? Settings at 50%? 75%? ...


the link is here, I'll try and put up the Soviet T5 later this evening but as SigUp has said, it looks and feels very close to the historical outcome.

now in the main the 'Road Tos' can give realistic outcomes as both sides are locked into their historical OOB on a given sector, but in that sense the outcome is re-assuring. In terms of dynamism, we may have dampened things down too much, but then as the Soviets, I've fought an active defense and T6 has produced the third major pocket of the game.




swkuh -> RE: Realism discussion (8/23/2013 10:37:19 PM)

Interesting to see the value of adjusting "logistics" and "transport."

Thanks to Loki & friend for giving logistics at 75 a try. Watching that thread.

I've found that "morale" that favors GHQ makes a better AI game. (Used GHQ105/SOV100) Others?

Guess I'll be trying adjustments to all factors in a serious way (vs AI) when able. But not able just now.




carlkay58 -> RE: Realism discussion (8/23/2013 10:53:12 PM)

I have tried 50% logistics before and I think there is an AAR in the list that did too. Both games came to the conclusion that 50% was too big of a cut and that around 70% was probably the next one to try. So I am monitoring the 75% to see how that one goes.




sven6345789 -> RE: Realism discussion (8/23/2013 11:01:03 PM)

first, let's take a look at the historical situation. The german offensive in the east was a big gamble. The chances of winning seemed god, but actually, they were low. It all comes down to the aim. Why do you start a war? Do you have limited aims, or do you want to destroy the other side, as the germans planned during or after Barbarossa?. A limited victory would have been possible. Had the german leadership approached Stalin in oktober 1941, they could probably have gained parts of the Baltic states, Bessarabia (for Rumania), parts of the Territory Finland lost during the Winter War and so on. But that was not the Plan of Hitler. He wanted to conquer the Soviet Union and exterminate the populace, nothing less. This was an aim beyond the reach of the Wehrmacht. The Germans had only very little knowledge of the total OOB of the russian Army. They had no idea of the actual strength beyond the Smolensk Kiew line. They had no idea of how many reserves the russians had. In August 1941, the german war machine could no longer push the russians back all along the front. They had to decide, Moscow, or Kiev, or Leningrad. They only had the strength for one target. They chose Kiev. The original plan was to destroy the red army in 2 months, followed by mopping up. Obviously, the original plan had already failed. FRom this point onwards, the germans had no real chance of winning their ultimate goal. Hitler would not accept any other but the ultimate goal, and that doomed germany.
Now, In the game you want to have a realistic chance for winning. You also have hindsight. You know what the russians are capable of, you can memorize the russian starting positions (leading to the low pocket) and the russian player knows what he is up against, and that there will be a bad winter in 1941. So, the position is different from the beginning. To give both sides a reasonable chance of winning, you need to form Victory conditions that compare you to historic results. Let's not forget that the soviet player does not reach a decisive victory if he reaches Berlin as historical, but only a i believe marginal one. You need to be better than history. THis is obviously easier for the russians to accomplish. I have never seen a flawless boardgame of the russian front, and i doubt that i will ever see one. Still, some are good a simulating the ebb and flow of the battles on the front An old one is AH "Russian Front". This game simulates both sides quite well, but even in this game, it is almost impossible for the germans to win in 1941. The more detail you put in a game, the more unforseen problems can arise. We have seen it in the development of this game. WITP-AE has been mentioned in this thread, and although a lot of work has been put into it, it does not work acceptably without house rules. Historically, Australia was beyond the reach of Japan. Only a major effort would have made it possible to conquer it. The Japanese never had the chance to mobilize the resources, not to mention the Army/Navy rivalry, which is totally absent in the game. WITP-AE is also a game where Hindsight is important. No japanese player would pull of a Midway operation the way it was done historically. Why? Because we know what could happen if you do.Loose those carriers, and the good old days are over. China is another matter.
Let's accept it. A game can get close to history, but it will always be a game, not a simulation. A game about the east front will never be able to give both sides the same chance of winning, similar to a game about the pacific war (not to mention the western front, wonder who wants to play the germans in war in the west?) If you want that, you must accept ahistorical possibilities.
I want a game that simulates the historical ebb and flow of the war and simulates both sides well. And it should be fun. I do not want to memorize the soviet setup or do math regarding how many hexes i can loose each turn and still win. That is not my game.




Numdydar -> RE: Realism discussion (8/24/2013 7:48:41 AM)

+1 to this [:)]




darbycmcd -> RE: Realism discussion (8/25/2013 5:52:39 PM)

I am sort of confused about the idea that keeps popping up on the board about an Axis "win" in the early war, not just with Sven by the way. What are people basing this idea on? Given the nature of the leadership of both sides and the nature of the war (genocidal) which was obvious to both sides, what combination of events would lead to some sort of peace settlement? It is.... not obvious to me. Otherwise, the Axis conveived of victory as destroying the Soviet ability to wage war, which was basically the A-A line, which actually CAN happen in the game (basically clear the board). Failing that, the game is just what the title says, 1941-1945, the end is when Berlin falls.... Some players feel that if the Axis can't win it in '42 it is somehow 'unfair', but well I guess that is the problem with the war, it really was unfair.




loki100 -> RE: Realism discussion (8/25/2013 6:13:47 PM)

I think you are basically right.

What could have happened was the Stalin regime could have fallen in 1941, quite possibly with the loss of Leningrad as the trigger. His hatred of the city was well known so it would have been easy to say it has been allowed to happen out of treachery. This also fits the psychological deal that many in the mid/senior echelons of party and state had accepted.

Crudely this was that only Stalin's methods guarenteed the security of the USSR, and many, inside and outside the USSR accepted that (incl my own grandparents). If there was a-priori evidence that this had not been the case then the psychological barrier against a military coup would have been broken. Add to that, in 1942 some Soviet officers were openly discussing replacing the party with the army as the means to administer the state.

Now none of that would have triggered a surrender, merely regime change. I believe the Soviets would have fought on even if pushed out of European Russia and simply resorted to ongoing partisan war. They had the example of hte German occupation of the Ukraine and Baltic from 1917 to Nov 1918 and that they could essentially out wait them.




SigUp -> RE: Realism discussion (8/25/2013 8:19:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

I believe the Soviets would have fought on even if pushed out of European Russia and simply resorted to ongoing partisan war. They had the example of hte German occupation of the Ukraine and Baltic from 1917 to Nov 1918 and that they could essentially out wait them.

I think the Sino-Japanese War is an example of what would have happened. Basically the Nationalist regime retreated deep into Central China while refusing to surrender, thus overstretching Japanese capacities. After the Battle of Wuhan 1938 Japan lost the ability to perform deep and permanent strikes (until Ichigo six years later). Of course Japan still mounted attacks, some very successful ones, but afterwards the IJA nearly always had to retreat to their starting positions.




Walloc -> RE: Realism discussion (8/28/2013 12:02:52 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

I did not bother to compute slovakia , italy or hungary because i was certain their losses were low.

RAsmus in your opinion from where the extra german manpower comes , ariving units or returning disabled ?

the manpower production seams ok except maybe for Poland .


Hi Gabriel,

I havent forgotten ur request i just hvent had time to d much about it. non the less i point u too teh chart i just posted here:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=3394514

If one looks at the replacement, reinforcements and kickback from disabled pool and compare to the historic numbers some noticeble differences appeare plus if u include what actually leave the Ostheer and compares to ingame u get to explain much of the difference. Again as said earlier there are otehr stuff like Hiwi's that also play in.

Apart from a few month in spring 42 and 43 and a single month outside that. The difference in abgang and zugange is clear there is a continuos drain on the ostherr that doesnt match the replacement/reinforcement. First the game doesnt seem to take all of the former into account and then the gains dont match either.
One could ofc say that what if u dont take the historic losses u loss less and u should, but this takes place in an evaulation of the historic and it shows teh difference of the ingame to compare if with hsitroic figurs what happens to the manpower levels. Im my above post i stopped at july 1942 but it doesnt stop there we seen 43 armys of above 4.1m germans and i have charts similar to the one in the post in the other thead im poiting too up too late 1944.

Ill see if i dont get time to write up some thing more throughly using more math to showing the differences,

Rasmus




Gabriel B. -> RE: Realism discussion (8/28/2013 9:53:23 AM)

Comparing incoming historicaly vs game :

814,600 until end of March .

Game :

reinforcements : 880,059 (397,666 until end of december).

Basicly reinforcements alone ( without manpower recruitment ) is higher than Zugang ( and i did not count luftwafe units ) .

Since I doubt these units arived at the front severly understrenght , german manpower recruitment and returning disabled are pushing the german orbat higher.


A posible solution might be to have these units arive as empty and use the recruitment and returning disabled to fill them up . That would prevent double counting and reach a more historical orbat . There is a drawback however, german front line units would be understreght and take far more losses as historicaly as result .





Schmart -> RE: Realism discussion (8/28/2013 6:07:20 PM)

What about adding a time limit for player turns, similar to competitive chess? It would force players to make decisions more quickly, some things would be forgotten, mistakes made, etc. It would eliminate the ability to spend hours maximizing and micro-managing every last detail every single turn. It might increase the turn tempo/playability (quicker turn arounds?). It would put some real life pressure/constraints on players to make quick decisions and prioritize. A player could pause the turn (for bathroom breaks, phonecalls, screaming children/wags, or even to continue later in the day, etc), but it would bring up a separate screen so that the game is literally paused and functions are unavailable, not giving the player a chance to review or study data, map, units, etc. It might simulate some of the Russian command paralysis, as there are more units to manage in the same amount of time as for the Axis player. Mud turn time would focus on administrative re-organization as there isn't much combat or movement.

Generally, it would add in more of a human element to the game, rather than the ability to continuously optimize and micro-manage every single detail, something real-life commanders didn't have.




rmonical -> RE: Realism discussion (9/2/2013 3:07:18 AM)

The whole problem with realism discussions is the Germans are supposed to lose when playing to historical constraints. Assuming equal ability, the Germans should lose badly. Historically, the ability at the scale represented by the game was manifestly not equal in 1941 so the Germans did very well. With more competent Soviet leadership, the Germans should invariably do less well.

To make a playable game, the designers give the Germans super-normal abilities in 1941. In GG WITE,the Germans can detach two Panzer Corps from AGC and achieve historical results for the next 4 weeks. German mobile corps can suddenly get a full load of fuel while deep in Russia.

On the oither hand, after the 1941 rout against even the best Soviet commanders, it is all downhill for the Germans. In addition to the blizzard, a host of design artifacts have serious impact on the German and almost none on the Soviet side. I have discussed these ad nausium in other threads.

To me, that the very best German player routinely wins against competent Soviet players indicates the design as history is broken (sorry Michael T).

Once we have a game which reasonably recreates history, then we can move on to what made the original War in Europe such a hit - alternatives and variations.

Right now, we are in the same limbo as we were in 1974 with SPI WITE in hand but not having German production until SPI WIE came out in 1976.




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