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Mike Scholl -> JAPAN'S VULNERABILITY (2/9/2003 6:34:26 PM)
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As Mogami seems to be making a good case for the difficulties
of invading Japan "on the fly" I thought I'd mention a few other
reasons for a more prepared approach. (All of this is dependent
on the game accurately reflecting the physical realities of the situation---if supply and resources grow on trees then all bets
are off).
Number One, and most important. Japan cannot feed itself! And
do to the shortage of shipping, the entire Japanese Population
had been under ever more restrictive rationing since the war
began. By 1945, under the relentless assult of US submarines,
minefields, and aircraft, starvation was stepping on stage. The
US didn't know that for certain at the time---but as gamers we
do.
Number Two. Japan cannot feed it's Industrial Base. It's self-
sufficient in Coal, and little else. The entire reason for Japanese
Expansionism since the 1890's was to try to achieve a position
and empire such as Britian's which would allow access to the
raw materials needed to become a Great Power. Again, by 1945
her Merchant Marine was almost non-existant, being either sunk
or mothballed with unrepairable damage. Even without bombing
the Industrial Base was at a virtual production standstill. The
sooner the Allied assult on Merchant Shipping begins to "pinch",
the sooner Japan's "bite" starts losing teeth.
Number Three Bombing. Japan proved horribly vulnerable to
it even without the A-Bomb. Her AAA and Fighter defenses were
far below German or Allied standards, and her highly inflamable
cities much more vulnerable. Even without the shortage of raw
materials her industry was shutting down by 1945 as it's labor
fled to the countryside to escape the bombers.
While suspected, none of this was known for certain in 1945, and
so the Allies went ahead with invasion plans. They might have
anyway, for political reasons. But whether they did or not, Japan
WAS going to collapse by the end of 1945 or revert to canniblism.
The Military was hoping for an Invasion as a last ditch chance to
fight while they still could lift a rifle. As much for "honor" as in
the forlorn hope that this time they could defeat it and maybe
gain a peace. The A-Bombs could actually be said to have been
the best thing that could happen to Japan because they "broke
the stalemate" politically and finally brought surrender.
But all of the above means NOTHING if a player tries a "quickest
possible line-of-approach" to Japan and invades it. The Allies
spent all of 1943 in siezing the "jump-off" positions for their
advance and building and training the forces to make it. In 1944,
they WON the War in the Pacific by any rational standards only
to find out the Japanese weren't behaving rationally. 1945 was
basically "kicking the Hell out of a defeated opponant" because
the Damned Fool wouldn't admit he'd been beaten! But if you
"skip over" the gains of 1943-44 in an attempt to "shorten the
war" by direct invasion the situation changes into one that will
allow the Japanese a decent chance at defeating you. They'll
still have the tools to fight, and plenty of manpower. As the
Allies, you MIGHT be able to win anyway---but you also risk
recieving the kind of Massive Defeat that might have cooled US
passions enough to allow a negotiated peace.
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