Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (Full Version)

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leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/6/2013 4:31:18 PM)

Hi everybody, I've got a few questions on the strategy of "gliding" the Japanese economy into its long term descent while squeezing as much out of it as possible. These are both strategic & technical questions, with the WITP tracker industry chart below as the frame of reference. (please don't read B. Fagan obviously :)

My current PBEM game is in February 1943 and I hold a Japanese Empire similar to historical, with some extra space in China but with Magwe in Burma threatened. Before the questions, thanks again to the makers of WITP tracker, Damian and the folks who helped me get my economy back on track in my last thread.

1. How long can my Heavy Industry run on the points "banked" if i turn off all HI factories? Is it HI pts of 800,192 "in the bank" divided by daily HI usage of 7,047 = 113 days? (again see chart below). I'm guessing later in the game I could drastically reduce my HI daily usage by turning off NavSY and MerSY ship production, saving 3678 NavSY and 2361 MerSY HI points? Say its 1945 and the Allies have cleared the map of the Japanese battle fleet, and there's no point in producing new ships, I could theoretically need only 1,740 HI points a day? Then I would have 459 days of HI banked-- more than enough by 1945. If i'm correct on this line of thinking, it makes me wonder if i should massively increase my airframe and engine production? (currently 759 aircraft a month)

2. The ship production "bank" on the chart below is a bit confusing. When do I shut down the Naval Yards? I have 1177 pts, those are banked like HI correct? When they get above the 1203 "Need", can i shut down my NavSY forever and save that HI point usage? I did turn off production of many ships like the Shinano. It looks like my MerSY bld of 787 is not making any progress on building up a bank there, so I need to increase MerSY and try to get a similar cushion of points "in the bank", so i can then turn off MerSY?

3. Can oil and fuel unloaded in Hong Kong, or even Singapore, given clear road and/or rail links all the way to Korea, provide oil and fuel for the factories in Manchuria?

4. This is the longest Japanese game i've been in (for various reasons usually not related to the game itself) and I'm not sure how the Kamikazes work. Can i use the accidentally large pool of 450 A6M2 Zeroes as Kamikazes? Can any type of plane become a Kamikaze?

Thanks!!


[image]local://upfiles/13963/0E350F61733349F7BC2B485082084AB4.jpg[/image]



CapnGreasy -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/6/2013 5:06:03 PM)

I can somewhat answer the Kamikaze thingy. Almost any plane can become a kamikaze. Not the transports. They switch over as a unit when available. Your opponent must be (top of page 175 of manual) 15 hexes by sea from Tokyo, Takao, or Saigon. And the date after Jan 1 1944.

I am in Oct 44 and wish I already had them but would not really be fair if your opponent is not that close in my opinion. I have some vacated bases in China due to local emergencies and if they happen to eventually switch sides Kamis will be activated. Get one or two units a day able to switch I think.

I never get enough merch points myself. I turn Naval on and off to try and save supply and HI points. Your HI points seem really low, need to be in the millions!(like your oil and fuel reserves in HI, good luck, I have never been able to achieve it)

I tried turning all HI off for a week or so once and got the big surprise, no supplies produced. I do not recommend it.

I have tried stopping production of every ship type I consider useless, small xAK, oddball subs, CVE with little flight deck space.

Stay tuned, you will get a lot more concise answers soon I am sure.



Quixote -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/6/2013 7:45:43 PM)

Point by point,

1. You are correct in your understanding of how this works, but...
A) Air losses rise dramatically for Japan as the war goes on. The same losses you are sustain in a week in 1942 you may sustain in a day in 1944/1945, and
B) As CapnGreasy points out, HI also produces supply. So if you try to run with just 1700 HI turned on towards the end of the war, you'll likely have almost no usable air force and you may also be very short on supply.

2. Your current 1177 Naval points are already "banked", and you are running a surplus of 23 pts/turn here. (The difference between Bld and Need.) You could turn off 20 or so points of Naval right now and still keep your bank at 1100+. Merchant is just the opposite - you are running a deficit and are not actually advancing all the ships that are currently in your queue. Either expand your Merchant shipyards (not recommended) or halt more of your Merchant shipping (absolutely recommended.) You have an almost 300pt/turn deficit here, so stop producing all those transports ASAP.

3. Short answer - yes. Easier said than done, though. Most players have problems making this work.

4. The part of the manual CapnGreasy quotes is incorrect. It's actually 20 hexes, not 15.



Lokasenna -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/6/2013 8:56:24 PM)

First off, congrats on making it to 1943 ;).

Second, I'd be happy to look at a save file or further screenshots if you want to email me. My email is my username at gmail.com.

Specifically, I would like to see your Oil & Res tab, and your Global tab might not be bad to see either. From the WITP Chart, and knowing what I do about your game, I would say keep your CVs building using those NavSY points. I would accelerate any that you can do for only x2 cost, and maybe even some for x3... I'd also accelerate any DDs you can that are still in the x2 stage. How to tell if it's in x2: if the number of days until it arrives is greater than 10-times the number listed as the build cost (which is also the ship's durability) in the Ship Availability queue, then it only costs twice the normal amount. If the delay until arrival is equal to or less than 10*durability, then it costs 3x the normal amount while still taking off 2 days.

I would like to see what your MerSY queue looks like. I suspect you have a veritable boatload of small xAKs and maybe some xAPs that you can turn off. You need no xAPs at this point in the war - just convert cargo space to troop space on some of your xAKs if you need to haul some troops around (you may not even need to do that, as troops can occupy cargo space at 1/2 the efficiency). You can also safely turn off the -Maru CVEs (they arrive latest and have poor speed and capacity).


Those are all my thoughts in the context that you don't want to turn off too much HI, as you will want supplies. You only have 4.7M supply right now. You'll be out of surplus oil, globally, in ~150 days. Unless you turn off some refineries, and then you'd need to turn off HI or you'll run out of fuel faster... I suspect you understand that already, as this would be 'gliding', as you say.



leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/8/2013 2:09:03 AM)

Thanks for these replies gentlemen! Lokasenna I will send you the turn once I get a fresh one- I made some of the changes described and would be better for you to see the latest



obvert -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/9/2013 8:42:08 PM)

4. Your A6M2 will be much better escorting your kamis. You'll need to escort them, and these airframes are not great in themselves as kamis due to the small bomb load. Really you want either fast 1E DB/TB like the Grace or Judy or fast large high durability 2E like the Peggy or Frances. Keys are fast, high durability and bomb size (load as well, but size is more important to rip through even armored ships).

No plane hits all three but pick the ones that have two out of three and you'll get some hits.



leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/10/2013 2:01:15 AM)

So sounds like a mass of old A6M2 Zeroes on escort, to draw off the CAP (even though many of those Zeroes won't make it back either) and then as many dive bombers as I can for the Kamikazes :). And the Kamikaze pilots should be trained at low level Nav Attack, correct? thanks :)



PaxMondo -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/10/2013 2:04:37 PM)

General HI targets for me at point I lose the DEI (meaning essentially no more oil):
4M HI
500K ARM
100K VEH

IF the date I lose the DEI is mid44, I should be able to make it to '46 with an effective defense with those points banked. If the date is earlier, I need bigger bank. If the date is later, I can build more AC.

800K in the bank would last me less than a year of combat and I would not be able to replace most of my ground unit losses. When the SOV activate, my lines would fold in 60 days or less due to lack of replacements.

YMMV.



PaxMondo -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/10/2013 2:14:37 PM)

LEt me throw a few numbers here to help:

If I want to be able to replace 50 squads/day, that costs me ~100K HI/month
If I want to build about 3000 1E AC equivalents / mo ~ 100K HI/month

Right there my burn rate is 200K HI/month to be able to put up a decent fight ... 2.4M/yr. This is why 4M HI in the bank is my min at 6/44. Should just get me to game end.



leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/11/2013 2:23:48 PM)

hi PaxMondo, great info thank you. Ok, at my current rate, especially since I just tweaked the economy a little more, I should be able to bank close to 4 million HI by 6/44. And yes at that point it seems like more about replacing lost ground forces and kamikazes than anything else.



Lokasenna -> RE: Timing the decline of your Japanese economy (10/11/2013 6:19:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

hi PaxMondo, great info thank you. Ok, at my current rate, especially since I just tweaked the economy a little more, I should be able to bank close to 4 million HI by 6/44. And yes at that point it seems like more about replacing lost ground forces and kamikazes than anything else.


Make sure you account for pilot training costs, which basically reduce your HI output per turn by 1000 or so.



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