Japan to Rearm? (Full Version)

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Footslogger -> Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 1:31:06 AM)

Could a war between Japan and China happen in the near future?

Read this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25411653



Terminus -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 1:32:10 AM)

You sure do post a lot of OT stuff, huh?



mind_messing -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 1:33:21 AM)

1. The thread title is wrong. Japan is not rearming, Japan has been re-armed for some time now.

2. My god, seven warships, thirty-five aircraft and enough amphibious vehicles to furnish a battalion! It's like Japan plans to invade China all over again!



Footslogger -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 1:37:26 AM)

I thought Japan wasn't suppost to have aircraft carriers? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kqi9iIi3x2g



dr.hal -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 1:42:54 AM)

If one were to take their constitution literally they are not suppose to have and do a lot of things.... I think a dust up between Japan and Chine north of Formosa is not out of the question given the growing value of the seas in that area and the growing strength of China's navy (and its Russian built aircraft carriers!).



Footslogger -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 1:54:51 AM)

Here's another clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0BJ_r-RZyM

A secret weapons program with nuclear enrichment!!! [X(]



mind_messing -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 1:56:41 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Footslogger

Here's another clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0BJ_r-RZyM

A secret weapons program with nuclear enrichment!!! [X(]


A word of advice, spend less time on YouTube. Quality journalism it is not.



Bo Rearguard -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 2:06:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Footslogger

Here's another clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0BJ_r-RZyM

A secret weapons program with nuclear enrichment!!! [X(]


A word of advice, spend less time on YouTube. Quality journalism it is not.



I beg to differ. If it were not for YouTube I wouldn't know all about the Illumanti, chemtrails, Hitler living in Antarctica and Saddam Hussien's Stargate Machine.

The Truth is way out there. [:D]



Footslogger -> RE: Japan to Re-arm? (12/18/2013 2:14:30 AM)

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/japan/nuke/ [sm=innocent0009.gif]



Joe D. -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 11:08:33 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Footslogger

Could a war between Japan and China happen in the near future? ...


I doubt that war would be just with Japan after China abruptly declared a new "no fly" zone that many nations have deliberately violated.



Lecivius -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 1:12:53 PM)

Agreed. The one constant in this world is change. China has been quietly turning itself into a major player. The U.S. has been declining for some time (not to go into that). Even Japan has stated that the United States cannot be depended upon to defend Japanese interests. And anyone with any real knowledge of that region knows that China is not even slightly afraid to do whatever they feel is in their best interests.

Shooting is a real possibility. War, however, is obsolete.



dr.hal -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 6:43:52 PM)

I could envision a confrontation more along the lines of the "Cod Wars" that happened between Iceland and the United Kingdom in the mid 70s. Also what the US and Japan are currently doing is exactly what is needed to be done, purposely violating the claim by China. In International Law there is the concept of "persistent objection" in that a claim will become a "fact" of international law over time (how much time is needed has never been established) unless objected to. The US has traditionally sent warships into the Black Sea at least once a year for no other reason that to counter the old Soviet claim that only warships from countries with a shoreline on the Black Sea would be allowed to have warships with access to that sea. The US also crossed the "Line of Death" that Gaddafi claimed off of Libya across the Gulf of Sidra (were the US shot down some Libyan MIGs if you will recall). The claim was in violation of traditional International Law concerning the definition of territorial waters in a bay or indentation of a shoreline. That's why the US is purposely flying B-52s into the seas south of Japan in defiance of the Chinese claim. To establish an objection in fact over the claim by China. All of this is a big huge expensive chess game!



catwhoorg -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 8:07:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Footslogger

I thought Japan wasn't suppost to have aircraft carriers? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kqi9iIi3x2g


Its a ASW destroyer.
Helicopters only, nothing to see here.



Feltan -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 11:12:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: dr.hal

I could envision a confrontation more along the lines of the "Cod Wars" that happened between Iceland and the United Kingdom in the mid 70s. Also what the US and Japan are currently doing is exactly what is needed to be done, purposely violating the claim by China. In International Law there is the concept of "persistent objection" in that a claim will become a "fact" of international law over time (how much time is needed has never been established) unless objected to. The US has traditionally sent warships into the Black Sea at least once a year for no other reason that to counter the old Soviet claim that only warships from countries with a shoreline on the Black Sea would be allowed to have warships with access to that sea. The US also crossed the "Line of Death" that Gaddafi claimed off of Libya across the Gulf of Sidra (were the US shot down some Libyan MIGs if you will recall). The claim was in violation of traditional International Law concerning the definition of territorial waters in a bay or indentation of a shoreline. That's why the US is purposely flying B-52s into the seas south of Japan in defiance of the Chinese claim. To establish an objection in fact over the claim by China. All of this is a big huge expensive chess game!


dr. hal,

Freedom of navigation has been a long standing policy among all administrations. We do it, and we should do it. However, I am as concerned with our own Government's intentions as much as with China's. Given current polling numbers on a host of issues, my main concern is a "Gulf of Tonkin" style event to wag the dog.

Regards,
Feltan



dr.hal -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/18/2013 11:23:11 PM)

Thanks Feltan, I'll admit I never even thought of that possibility. I would like to think that our increased access to or ability to obtain various point of view due to a plethora of information out there would adversely impact the ability of a government to create a "Tonkin" style enlargement of a threat. It should be far more difficult in today's information age than it was in the "dark" ages of the early 60s, but it is certainly something to consider. Certainly governments attempt to manipulate information to their own purposes.... I doubt that such a need will ever change, just an ability to execute it. Hal



spence -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/19/2013 1:14:35 AM)

quote:

I could envision a confrontation more along the lines of the "Cod Wars" that happened between Iceland and the United Kingdom in the mid 70s. Also what the US and Japan are currently doing is exactly what is needed to be done, purposely violating the claim by China. In International Law there is the concept of "persistent objection" in that a claim will become a "fact" of international law over time (how much time is needed has never been established) unless objected to. The US has traditionally sent warships into the Black Sea at least once a year for no other reason that to counter the old Soviet claim that only warships from countries with a shoreline on the Black Sea would be allowed to have warships with access to that sea. The US also crossed the "Line of Death" that Gaddafi claimed off of Libya across the Gulf of Sidra (were the US shot down some Libyan MIGs if you will recall). The claim was in violation of traditional International Law concerning the definition of territorial waters in a bay or indentation of a shoreline. That's why the US is purposely flying B-52s into the seas south of Japan in defiance of the Chinese claim. To establish an objection in fact over the claim by China. All of this is a big huge expensive chess game!



Such actions are surely not without risk. Cuba claims a 13 mile Territorial Sea. The US recognizes a 3 mile Territorial Sea and out to 12 miles as a Customs Zone (where the claiming state can enforce its customs laws). So the USN routinely sends a warship to a position 12.00001 miles off the Cuban coast to thumb its nose at the Cubans. Might more or less makes right. Might is a relative thing though. In the 80's when Cuba and the Bahamas had a dispute over some fishing grounds between the two countries Cuba sent a pair of MiGs to blow the Bahamian Patrol Boat Flamingo out of the water.

A misjudgement of relative might by one side or the other could definitely lead down a very slippery slope.



John 3rd -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/19/2013 1:33:15 AM)

I think Japan MUST rearm. They cannot depend on the USA at this moment in time.

Good looking ship and fine named class (Hyuga) of vessel. Does anyone know how many more are being built? Does the ship have VTOL ability? Don't know if the Japanese have a version of a Harrier but that could be a fine addition to this warship.



dr.hal -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/19/2013 6:48:02 PM)

There is a very real divide within Japan about rearming. And it is not really along "ethical" lines as we in America so often think of. Yes there are those that still see Japan as the aggressor (especially outside of Japan in other areas of Asia) and think that a "pacifist" approach to international relations is the best way to go, but the divide for most WITHIN Japan is really based upon economics. It costs money to create, build and maintain an advanced military. Many within the government and industry simply don't want the expense. Even with a growing China, the real question is "power projection" capability and China has very little even across her own land boarders let alone to Taiwan and even further to Japan. So the skeptics say "why invest all that money?" They have a winning argument in that Japan has not really invested as much as it certainly is capable of doing. I think if the US states a claim like the UK did in 1970 which was "withdrawal from East of the Suez" along the lines of "Withdrawal from West of Guam" then the dynamics would change, but Japan has assessed the likelihood of such a statement as being close to "nil" and I believe they are right.



tocaff -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/19/2013 7:36:55 PM)

If there is one country in the world that really is under the shield of the US, it's Canada. I believe that any other country had better look after itself because even if the US does come to your aid it's not going to be for the long term.



CT Grognard -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/19/2013 8:21:19 PM)

China is faced by massive geopolitical issues.

They really cannot afford a war.

The best they can do at the moment is rattle the sabre.

Do you think China is able to exist independent of other countries?



Dobey455 -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 12:05:49 AM)

Japan has been "re-armed" since the 1950's
The JSDF has approximately 300,000 men available and is one of the best equipt forces in the region.

Talking about Japan needing to "re-arm" as though we are discussing 1949 West Germny is simply bizare as it suggests that Japan is currently unarmed and defenceless, where as it is actually on of the major regional powers.



Feltan -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 3:18:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CT Grognard

China is faced by massive geopolitical issues.

They really cannot afford a war.

The best they can do at the moment is rattle the sabre.

Do you think China is able to exist independent of other countries?


Wouldn't people in the West have said the same thing about Japan circa 1940?

Regards,
Feltan



morejeffs -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 5:46:52 AM)

Dr. Hal

Your description of internal Japanese thought is not far off (I am here in Tokyo). That said,
recent Chinese saber rattling has pissed off the average citizen who really could not care less.

Chinese diplomacy recently has been poor as far as Japan is concerned.
----------------------------
As for Feltan.
I agree with you. Actually, seeing China now reminds me of Japan in 1940 in that what used to be very
smart diplomacy has turned into a "how many countries can we anger at the same time". And as mentioned by others
a shooting war could start by accident.



dr.hal -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 10:58:34 AM)

thanks morejeffs... Yes Chinese bellicose activity has certainly helped the right to sing the praises of rearming even more. And as for the point about Japan being rearmed for some time, true I think most are aware they have one of the largest military establishments in the world (6th largest???) but to stand up independently of the US umbrella would require much more than their current situation, including a nuclear deterrent, which is a step most are loath to see happen.



oldman45 -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 11:45:28 AM)

China has been using economics for years to project power, the cornering of the tin market, deals to secure oil from africa to name a few. What they are beginning to do is slowly project naval power. It is important that the US and its allies continue to fly through the no fly zone to remind China that there are limits. If China ever believes that those limits are not enforceable by the US and its allies, well then we have another issue.



catwhoorg -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 12:18:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I think Japan MUST rearm. They cannot depend on the USA at this moment in time.

Good looking ship and fine named class (Hyuga) of vessel. Does anyone know how many more are being built? Does the ship have VTOL ability? Don't know if the Japanese have a version of a Harrier but that could be a fine addition to this warship.



They have 2 Hyuga class, and one newer (Izumo class) launched but not commissioned with another Izumo class planned. That second one is due to be laid down early next year.

They could be adpated to use F-35's (using STOVL) but at this time Japan has no orders for that plane that I am aware of



Bo Rearguard -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 12:25:51 PM)

One thing that hasn't changed since WW2 is that Japan is an industrial nation poor in mineral resources and farmland and heavily dependent on maritime trade. If anything that condition has only worsened exponentially.

I'm certain they haven't forgotten the submarine blockade that strangled them then. I believe China had 12 of those quiet Kilo class subs in it's submarine inventory. Ideal for anti-shipping operations. However, Japan is one of China's largest trading partners. I seems strange that it would ever come to that.



PaxMondo -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 12:49:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CT Grognard

China is faced by massive geopolitical issues.

They really cannot afford a war.

The best they can do at the moment is rattle the sabre.

Do you think China is able to exist independent of other countries?

No, but that is not the real question. Does the China leadership think they can exist independently of other countries? .... I'm not so sure of that answer unfortunately.



Lecivius -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 1:01:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


quote:

ORIGINAL: CT Grognard

China is faced by massive geopolitical issues.

They really cannot afford a war.

The best they can do at the moment is rattle the sabre.

Do you think China is able to exist independent of other countries?

No, but that is not the real question. Does the China leadership think they can exist independently of other countries? .... I'm not so sure of that answer unfortunately.



QFT



Chickenboy -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 1:32:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Feltan


quote:

ORIGINAL: CT Grognard

China is faced by massive geopolitical issues.

They really cannot afford a war.

The best they can do at the moment is rattle the sabre.

Do you think China is able to exist independent of other countries?


Wouldn't people in the West have said the same thing about Japan circa 1940?

Regards,
Feltan


It's not entirely an apt analogy. Has China recently captured huge swaths of neighboring countries under force of arms? Has it, in the last dozen years or so, liquidated any former government capitals?

China's growth as a military power has to be expected to come with some rough edges. It's got those, but naught more. Personally, I'm impressed that it's been as peaceful as it is. Sure, it's pushing the envelope in terms of neighborly relations and international standards of law. But so did we. So did most nations during their early rise to world powers.

So long as the Chinese are reliant on others for their economic survival, our economic "Frenemies" status will continue. The Chinese would be too easy to blockade and destroy economically. That would be / should be a non-starter for them.



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