RE: Japan to Rearm? (Full Version)

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mind_messing -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 3:16:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: oldman45

China has been using economics for years to project power, the cornering of the tin market, deals to secure oil from africa to name a few. What they are beginning to do is slowly project naval power. It is important that the US and its allies continue to fly through the no fly zone to remind China that there are limits. If China ever believes that those limits are not enforceable by the US and its allies, well then we have another issue.


Then again, your average Chinese bloke might see it as American interferance in Chinese regional affairs.

Probably pretty similar to what would happen if Russia started to fly intruder patrols over the American border, just to remind America that there are limits.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 3:46:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Probably pretty similar to what would happen if Russia started to fly intruder patrols over the American border, just to remind America that there are limits.


No, it's nothing like that.



tocaff -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 5:41:08 PM)

I think we`re all smart enough to know to never say never. A mistake here, the loss of face there, the need for something (oil, minerals etc.) and everything could go to hell suddenly. Imagine if last week the Chinese warship had been hit by the USN ship. Would they demand payment for damages Would the US pony up What about a pilot who decides to lock on another country`s plane. What happens then A mistake

What happened to my punctuation marks This means war



mind_messing -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 6:17:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Probably pretty similar to what would happen if Russia started to fly intruder patrols over the American border, just to remind America that there are limits.


No, it's nothing like that.


What, US involvement in the South China Sea isn't an assertation of American power projection to force the Chinese to respect limits?



catwhoorg -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 6:28:41 PM)

The Soviets quite happily flew 'intruder' patrols near various European airspaces.
They would equally be routine intercepted by fighters.

Don't know if the Russian's have done so in recent years, but I would be surprised if they have not.



Lecivius -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 6:28:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Probably pretty similar to what would happen if Russia started to fly intruder patrols over the American border, just to remind America that there are limits.


No, it's nothing like that.


What, US involvement in the South China Sea isn't an assertation of American power projection to force the Chinese to respect limits?



Over flights over sovereign territory is nothing like passage through disputed territory. And this area is far outside anything the Chinese could claim as international waters. A better example would be if the United States suddenly declared the Antarctic as a military No Fly zone, and made public intentions to defend it. Or the Pacific between California to Hawaii, or Hawaii to Samoa, etc. etc. etc.



Lecivius -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 6:32:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg

The Soviets quite happily flew 'intruder' patrols near various European airspaces.
They would equally be routine intercepted by fighters.

Don't know if the Russian's have done so in recent years, but I would be surprised if they have not.



Sure they do. So do we. In fact, they have started to increase such operations. But the United States does not say "We are gonna shoot the next one down!". Again, different rules of engagement.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 7:11:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Probably pretty similar to what would happen if Russia started to fly intruder patrols over the American border, just to remind America that there are limits.


No, it's nothing like that.


What, US involvement in the South China Sea isn't an assertation of American power projection to force the Chinese to respect limits?


That's not what you said. If Russia flew patrols over our borders they would be aggressively intercepted and escorted out, or shot down. No talking.



aspqrz02 -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 9:41:48 PM)

Exaggeration for effect, I presume?

Of course there would be some attempt at communication ... 'talking' in some form or other ...

For a start, you'd want to make sure that the pilot/crew of the aircraft weren't off course, injured, or hadn't declared some emergency that would explain their actions.

Then, of course, you'd want to make sure they weren't defecting.

Shooting down would not be the first option ...

The type of aircraft would also have an impact on US decision making ...

A Strategic Bomber (or equivalent) with an obvious external nuclear payload would garner a different response to a single/dual seat long range fighter with nothing but air to air weapons.

Even if they didn't reply to US queries, there'd be US planes scrambled and some sort of fly-by done to see just what the hell was up, and there'd almost certainly be warning shots before any shoot down.

Hell, the US would be on the Hot Line asap to see if the Russians had any explanation/excuse ... even if they didn't believe it, they'd try.

Unless, of course, tensions were really high and seen as 'just short of war' when, maybe, some of the above might be foregone.

But there'd almost certainly be *some* attempt at 'talking'

Phil



LoBaron -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 10:13:01 PM)

Yes it is an exaggeration, big deal. But parallel to diplomatic action, such planes would be intercepted and escorted out, or even shot down if assessed to pose an immediate threat.

The point is, there is a significant difference between hypotetical russion air patrols in US airspace and US B-52´s violating Chinas freshly invented air defense zone over contested territory. It is not pretty similar, it is apples and oranges.



PaxMondo -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/20/2013 10:40:41 PM)

And of course, it is all about the new oil ... Philippines, Viet Nam, China, just to name the first 3 who are claiming it ... large oil field, in one of the most seismically active locations, and it is all offshore. Very happy I am no longer in that business. I suspect Adair/Halliburton will be getting a lot of business over there in the future.



Bobdina1 -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/21/2013 12:19:41 AM)

here's their new shopping list.
Ospreys and F-35s on Japan’s $240B Shopping List http://www.dodbuzz.com/2013/12/18/ospreys-and-f-35s-on-japans-240b-shopping-list/#comment-130610



Symon -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/21/2013 5:44:08 PM)

China, to our (governmental, analytical) perception, is odd. It has always been odd. China doesn’t play in our analytical sandbox, so China is become, somehow, a dark, unknown, menacing presence, awaiting only the moment to unleash its claws, and fasten them on the throat of everyone else to the eternal glory of the Middle Kingdom. What rot.

Spent 10 years, back in the 70s, doing analyses of Red Russia and Red China for our community. Learned pretty quick that they weren’t necessarily “red”, they were just Russian and Chinese, with their own particular cultural, territorial, and developmental, imperatives. Maybe that’s why I got retired.

I like the Chinese. I’ve worked with Taiwanese and visited mainland factories, I’ve attended weddings, and was seated at the next table over from the family. Ate stuff that I’m still trying to get the recipe for, but all they do is smile. I have worked with and for Chinese, and loved every minute of it.

Are they out to rule the world? Hell no. They could care less. Are they out to run their part of it? You bet your ass.

Thought, significant thought, informed by an intelligent understanding of the imperatives, goes a long way towards setting limits, Ciao. J

[ed] Before I forget, in International Treaty waters, I would fly all day, every day, radars lit, weapons free, and make that known to everybody, so there's no mistake. If I kill ya it's because YOU screwed up.
quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

And of course, it is all about the new oil ... Philippines, Viet Nam, China, just to name the first 3 who are claiming it ... large oil field, in one of the most seismically active locations, and it is all offshore. Very happy I am no longer in that business. I suspect Adair/Halliburton will be getting a lot of business over there in the future.





Footslogger -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/21/2013 7:14:42 PM)

Symon, I've never been to China myself but I always talked with students at my college who were from there. They are most nice and gentle people I've ever met. And I always try to learn new words from them. Speaking about the food, do you eat them in a restaurant there in China or at someone's home?



Feltan -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/22/2013 12:49:22 AM)

Symon,

I largely agree. The only real mistake one has to be on guard about is assuming the Chinese will think, act and evaluate situations in the same manner as Western countries. That doesn't happen.

Tracked down an article I recently read. Not in agreement with it entirely, but close enough that it prompts some thoughts: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21591853-century-there-are-uncomfortable-parallels-era-led-outbreak#!

Regards,
Feltan



LoBaron -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/22/2013 9:00:37 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Feltan
The only real mistake one has to be on guard about is assuming the Chinese will think, act and evaluate situations in the same manner as Western countries. That doesn't happen.


While I agree with that sentiment, another mistake would be to assume China is driven by much different imperatives than the west. Nowerdays it is all about economic dominance and ressources, that does not leave much room for the "different cultures act different" game on a global scale. The ultimate goals are too similar.

While they might just politely smile when asked for the recipie instead of telling you to kindly f**k off western style, the bottom line is still: they don´t want to give you the damned recipie you don´t get the damned recipie. Same as in the west.



I agree with John on a person to person scale (and experienced it myself a bit when I was in China for a month in the late 90´s), but I do not think this transcendends fully into the countries´ behaviour. The individual might completely dominated by culture, but nowerdays, with all important stuff happening globally, if you attempt this on a country level you might just look like the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. China does not, and one of the reasons is that in many ways they smartly adapted to the ways of the west without giving up their cultural identity.



tocaff -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/22/2013 10:26:12 AM)

People around the world have many and varied cultural differences, but in the end they all want the same things, a roof over their heads and food on the table.

Governments sometimes reflect their various cultures, but they all act in the same selfish ways. Governments lie to their people and one another. The goal is to protect yourself and some aspire to dominate. Domination has it's cost and to underestimate China's or any other country's, ambitions is a grave error.

Did China bite off more than it can chew? Is this play within their own backyard a flexing of muscle and show of intent to announce to the world that they have arrived and must be reckoned with?

It's all about business. As long as the Chinese can get the raw materials to stoke their industry at reasonable prices I suspect that there will be little actual aggression. To place at risk their economy by losing markets raises the stakes dramatically.

The talk of China's first CV is nothing more than blah, blah as the Russians couldn't effectively keep it in service. It will be a springboard towards the Chinese building their own CVs and then they'll be projecting power.

Of course all of this conjecture is just that and the future course of things will be revealed in due time.



Feltan -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/22/2013 1:41:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

... While I agree with that sentiment, another mistake would be to assume China is driven by much different imperatives than the west. Nowerdays it is all about economic dominance and ressources, that does not leave much room for the "different cultures act different" game on a global scale. The ultimate goals are too similar...



I disagree. China does not look at the world through the same lens as Western powers, particularly the US. What might seem entirely logical to us, might offend their sensibilities and vice versa. While economic forces might seem to be driving the current relationships, history demonstrates (as in the article I posted a link to above) that this can be a dangerous illusion.

Any time you start thinking, "Oh, they would never do that and act against their (perceived Western) self-interest" just remember Tiananmen Square. Nothing surrounding that event passed the logic test of Western thinking -- they demonstrated that indeed they will act in their own self-interest regardless of what we might think it should be.

Regards,
Feltan



LoBaron -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/22/2013 3:52:12 PM)

quote:

I disagree. China does not look at the world through the same lens as Western powers, particularly the US. What might seem entirely logical to us, might offend their sensibilities and vice versa. While economic forces might seem to be driving the current relationships, history demonstrates (as in the article I posted a link to above) that this can be a dangerous illusion.


In this regard history is over. A nation as developed as China can, as any other nation, only survive as long as sufficient ressources are available. Since those ressources can be obtained globally meanwhile, China can either play the global game on ressources, and compete (thats what they are doing), or not, and fall behind again (this they will not do). There is a narrow band of options how those ressources can be obtained, and not to use those options would be irrational behaviour. Independent of cultural differences, this is, and will not, be a behaviour the Chinese will show as it would be counterproductive. This means their strategy on approaching the current global situation will contain the same logical elements the west has to deal with. They might favour one approach over the other and so differ a bit from the western approach, but this is not the same as irrational behaviour.

quote:

Any time you start thinking, "Oh, they would never do that and act against their (perceived Western) self-interest" just remember Tiananmen Square. Nothing surrounding that event passed the logic test of Western thinking -- they demonstrated that indeed they will act in their own self-interest regardless of what we might think it should be.


This falls more into the category of "we never knew much about why Tiananmen happened in exactly the way it did". We were simply missing the variables to put the pieces together and understand the exact logic behind it to make predictions. This does in no way mean the Chinese government handled that situation irrationally in any way. Not ethically according to western standards, but ethics and logic usually do not always require the other.



Edit: Sorry, this is what happens when you attempt to type something while a 16months old loudly demands your attention...

Still hope it is clear what I wanted to say, no time to edit... ;)



Feltan -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/22/2013 5:43:28 PM)

I guess in the fullness of time we will see. :-)

Regards,
Feltan



LoBaron -> RE: Japan to Rearm? (12/22/2013 6:40:02 PM)

I don´t even think we disagree. I suspect we are talking past each other.

I am aware that the Chinese are culture driven, like every other country, and that in some cases their different culture can lead to behaviour not expected by someone used to the western ways.

On the other hand you cannot deny that China has to live by the same rules to prosper as any other country, so has to apply the same or similar solutions to their problems as everybody else.



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