Out of the box thinking - Japanese surrender. (Full Version)

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IKerensky -> Out of the box thinking - Japanese surrender. (1/16/2014 12:02:41 PM)

Given the current rule set and map, I am wondering about a possibilty for the Japanese. There is a lot to lose in China for not a large bénéficial margin. The land war took build point and oil away from the Pacific, cost units killed in battle and tied in garrison.

What if the Japanese surrender to China in '39 ? (A peace negatiated would be better but wont be achievable)
What would be the cost for Japan ?

Can the ressources lost in China be regained against USSR ?

I am not sure if the rule allow that at all, then perhaps a withdrawal from China, just concentrating or small enclave, less costly to defend and permitting to concentrate power and BP against USSR, CW and USA ?



Ur_Vile_WEdge -> RE: Out of the box thinking - Japanese surrender. (1/16/2014 1:25:10 PM)

I, as the Chinese player, would NEVER agree to any peace terms with the Japanese, no matter how favorable, especially early in the game. The Chinese can't declare war, and don't have an outlet, so if that happens, you've effectively been sidelined for the rest of the game.


Besides, if the Japanese don't have the Chinese resources, then even if they manage to capture all 4 of the USSR resources within reach in say, MJ 40 (extraordinarily unlikely, especially once they correctly implement the compulsory peace rules that most people play with), then the Japanese will be down to 11 domestic resources and 2 resources and 4 oil that they're importing until they're ready to go to war with the western powers. And you probably won't get ALL of the soviet resources.


Don't think this is going to work out very well, I don't think you'll have the mass you'll need to take on the WAllies, and you can't incrementally take on the CW or the NEI without shooting USE through the roof.



IKerensky -> RE: Out of the box thinking - Japanese surrender. (1/16/2014 4:39:33 PM)

Sure that is the trouble.

Perhaps just an organised sitzkrieg in China. Given the situation it seems you can burn a lot of BP trying to put China out or gaining very little in it.

P.S. I know the idea was outrageous, but I like to start a discussion by talking extreme.



Centuur -> RE: Out of the box thinking - Japanese surrender. (1/16/2014 5:18:31 PM)

First, it's against the rules. The Japanese can only surrender if the Chinese control more than half of the printed factories in Japan proper. That's not going to happen.

Second, there wouldn't be a sane Chinese player in the world who would agree on a peace treaty with Japan in WiF, because China isn't allowed to DoW anyone in the game. This simulates the problems within China itself where a civil war was going on before and after WW II.

Third: the Chinese doctrine of both factions in WW II demanded that China was one country. This doctrine is seen today still in the behaviour of the governments in Taiwan and Mainland China. Both see the other as rebels and are often stating that there is one China (which one, depends on the ideology of that faction...). One China, means a China consisting of Manchuria, Hainan, Formosa and China as they are on the WiF map. The Chinese were, after the first Japanese-Chinese war in the 1890's incapable of attacking the Japanese due to West-European Colonialism. But even at that time, all Chinese governments kept stating their demands against the Japanese. First, it was only the evacuation of Formosa, after 1931 followed by Manchuria (which was part of China before the Japanese attack).
And if you know how Eastern diplomacy works, there wouldn't be one Chinese head of state (or warlord) who would have agreed on anything less as the total evacuation of all Chinese territories occupied by Japan since the first Japanese-Chinese war. To do otherwise, would mean to acknowledge the Japanese claims on that territory and that's an embarressment to any eastern politician (even today...). It probably would mean political suicide also...

So, if the Japanese would surrender to China, they would have to leave Manchuria, Hainan and Formosa too. That means they only control two resources and get some oil and other resources out of the US and NEI... They are toast. Any other peace treaty wouldn't been acceptable to any Chinese faction, giving the unstable political situation in the country itself. It's all or nothing in Chinese politics from 1895 until the time Mao controlled most of China. And even now, there are parts of China where local politician are the boss and not the Communist party in Peking...






IKerensky -> RE: Out of the box thinking - Japanese surrender. (1/16/2014 8:40:45 PM)

Ouch, that's harder than what I remember from Day of Decision. So, no official surrender, perhaps a withdrawal from center and South China (except Hainan) and a blocade in the North area. This will put trouble for Nationaliste and Communiste cooperation.



celebrindal -> RE: Out of the box thinking - Japanese surrender. (1/16/2014 8:56:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

First, it's against the rules. The Japanese can only surrender if the Chinese control more than half of the printed factories in Japan proper. That's not going to happen.

Second, there wouldn't be a sane Chinese player in the world who would agree on a peace treaty with Japan in WiF, because China isn't allowed to DoW anyone in the game. This simulates the problems within China itself where a civil war was going on before and after WW II.



Funny you should say that ;-) I had one game where I got the Chinese player to agree to a treaty on the first turn. Harry refered to it as the 'deal from hell' ;-)

That being said we have been toying with the idea of messing with the Japanese ability to be able to go to war with the US when they get forced back to neutrality.. Obviously they could DoW russia, but then they'd be taking the hit of china surrendering and the DoW.. which should push the USE up a fair bit.



brian brian -> RE: Out of the box thinking - Japanese surrender. (1/16/2014 11:53:04 PM)

It's an interesting idea. If there were a player playing China solo, a deal on a Japanese withdrawal might give them 2 objectives and a huge differential from a bid…..because who would bid very high to play China and only China?

Frequently I think WiF should do away with the concept of a Chinese "player". Would you want to play China by itself? Nationalists only… They should make the Nationalists subject to the US Activity Limits and have the USA play them. That would change the Pacific theater in a major way. Otherwise, the Chinese have less incentive to act historically than any other Major Power in the game. Both factions were simply waiting for the USA to beat the Japanese and had little desire to fight until their real war started up again. WiF gets this all so wrong, in the interests of a unified rules system, including unified victory conditions for the Chinese "player". A lot of the Chinese units are pure fantasy as well, that would only exist if foreign Major Powers built them for China. Which should be possible in the game, but that is not how the game works now.

In real life there is no way the Japanese could agree to a peace with China including a major withdrawal. They were colonizing the place and considered themselves a superior race. A Japanese leader who attempted such a maneuver would have probably been assassinated. The Axis were prisoners of their own ideology in this way. Their ideology got them into the war, and then wouldn't let them out of it. Only the Italian Fascists were able to pull that off.

In the game though it is a perfectly valid strategic option. If you don't attack in China, they get a BP less per turn, a bit more than that later in the war. Combine that with a strong strategic bombing campaign (partially historical), and you can keep the Chinese from building too much. But the Japanese will still be facing a Chinese opponent unshackled from their historical concerns.



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