USE chits

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celebrindal -> USE chits (2/11/2014 1:22:45 PM)
So a quick poll from folks.. How are you finding the new chit system that was introduced in MWiF? I know that my opponent is bemoaning the fact that he has a pile of 1's.... Anyone else seeing extremes, all 4's or other such crazyiness?

sanderz -> RE: USE chits (2/11/2014 1:24:43 PM)
only played a few turns - nearly all ones - which i thought odd however, what is the mix of counters being drawn from? and does it change as time progresses?

celebrindal -> RE: USE chits (2/11/2014 1:58:18 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: sanderz only played a few turns - nearly all ones - which i thought odd however, what is the mix of counters being drawn from? and does it change as time progresses? Well that's why i'm posting the poll.. it was decided that since the computer isn't limited to x number of chits when any are pulled, either for USE or garrison chits for pacts the cpu uses the number rolled to create the chit based on a percentage of what the ratio should be for that particular year. The only issue i see is that it doesn't allow for the pool of numbers to shift... so if you pull a bunch of 1's at the start of the turn, towards the end of the turn you should have a greater chance at a higher number.. with a true random number pool that doens't happen any more. Case in point.. my opponent is sitting at mid 20's for his entry pools and we are in mid 41, and he hasn't been able to take any actions because of that and as a result his tension is almost zero and can't gear up...

Extraneous -> RE: USE chits (2/11/2014 4:45:59 PM)
I would like to check the math (just for grins) so could you post your opponents US entry chit values in the Ge/It pool and Ja pool? Just doing a rough calculation (just drawing a chit each turn) your chit values should average approxamately: 2.2 in 1939 1.9 in 1940 2.3 in 1941 2.6 in 1942 2.9 in 1943

Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: USE chits (2/11/2014 5:22:21 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: sanderz only played a few turns - nearly all ones - which i thought odd however, what is the mix of counters being drawn from? and does it change as time progresses? See page 190 of Players Manual volume 2.

Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: USE chits (2/11/2014 5:25:16 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Extraneous I would like to check the math (just for grins) so could you post your opponents US entry chit values in the Ge/It pool and Ja pool? Just doing a rough calculation (just drawing a chit each turn) your chit values should average approxamately: 2.2 in 1939 1.9 in 1940 2.3 in 1941 2.6 in 1942 2.9 in 1943 For MWIF those numbers are: 2.333 1.789 2.598 3.333 2.865

Extraneous -> RE: USE chits (2/12/2014 12:08:23 PM)
Has somthig changed? I'm using PonsWiF-AiF-Patif Excel spreadsheet that uses WiFC (World in Flames Clasic), AiF (America in Flames), and the 2007 Modifications to Counter sheet 24. (Markers = Chits) Year ~ Total values of all available chits / Total number of chits available = Average chit 1939 ~ 70 / 30 = 2.33333 1940 ~ 101 / 53 = 1.90566 1941 ~ 154 / 68 = 2.7353 1942 ~ 213 / 82 = 2.23171 1943 ~ 274 / 94 = 2.32979 Chits added to the counter mix by year: 1939 (30) ~ Zero x1, One x9, Two x7, Three x6, Four x6, Five x1 1940 (23) ~ Zero x4, One x10, Two x6, Three x3 1941 (15) ~ One x1, Two x3, Three x11 1942 (14) ~ Three x14 1943 (12) ~ Three x12

celebrindal -> RE: USE chits (2/12/2014 2:38:30 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Extraneous Has somthig changed? I'm using PonsWiF-AiF-Patif Excel spreadsheet that uses WiFC (World in Flames Clasic), AiF (America in Flames), and the 2007 Modifications to Counter sheet 24. (Markers = Chits) Year ~ Total values of all available chits / Total number of chits available = Average chit 1939 ~ 70 / 30 = 2.33333 1940 ~ 101 / 53 = 1.90566 1941 ~ 154 / 68 = 2.7353 1942 ~ 213 / 82 = 2.23171 1943 ~ 274 / 94 = 2.32979 Chits added to the counter mix by year: 1939 (30) ~ Zero x1, One x9, Two x7, Three x6, Four x6, Five x1 1940 (23) ~ Zero x4, One x10, Two x6, Three x3 1941 (15) ~ One x1, Two x3, Three x11 1942 (14) ~ Three x14 1943 (12) ~ Three x12 Yes.. with the new system it is possible, tho low in probability, to draw nothing but 1's for a year... where as with the physcial limitation on the number of 1's as you draw more and more of them the probability of drawing a higher number increases to the point where it should be 100% (assuming chits for garrison and use are from the same pool.)

Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: USE chits (2/12/2014 4:55:23 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Extraneous Has somthig changed? I'm using PonsWiF-AiF-Patif Excel spreadsheet that uses WiFC (World in Flames Clasic), AiF (America in Flames), and the 2007 Modifications to Counter sheet 24. (Markers = Chits) Year ~ Total values of all available chits / Total number of chits available = Average chit 1939 ~ 70 / 30 = 2.33333 1940 ~ 101 / 53 = 1.90566 1941 ~ 154 / 68 = 2.7353 1942 ~ 213 / 82 = 2.23171 1943 ~ 274 / 94 = 2.32979 Chits added to the counter mix by year: 1939 (30) ~ Zero x1, One x9, Two x7, Three x6, Four x6, Five x1 1940 (23) ~ Zero x4, One x10, Two x6, Three x3 1941 (15) ~ One x1, Two x3, Three x11 1942 (14) ~ Three x14 1943 (12) ~ Three x12 From Players Manual Volume 1, Acknowledgments Nils Andresen and Paul Derynck – Outside of their work as beta testers, these two jointly performed the analysis of US entry chits so the finite pool of chits in the board game could be converted to an infinite distribution for MWiF without altering the basic accumulation of chits in the various US entry pools. Nils did his analysis using statistical theory and Paul wrote a Monte Carlo simulation to empirically test prospective distributions. In concert they arrived at the probability distribution used in MWiF, which both theoretically and empirically mimics the finite pool of chits in the board game. Among other tasks, Nils performed extensive beta testing of naval movement and combat and Paul served as my number one WIF rules guru.

celebrindal -> RE: USE chits (2/12/2014 6:15:04 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets quote: ORIGINAL: Extraneous Has somthig changed? I'm using PonsWiF-AiF-Patif Excel spreadsheet that uses WiFC (World in Flames Clasic), AiF (America in Flames), and the 2007 Modifications to Counter sheet 24. (Markers = Chits) Year ~ Total values of all available chits / Total number of chits available = Average chit 1939 ~ 70 / 30 = 2.33333 1940 ~ 101 / 53 = 1.90566 1941 ~ 154 / 68 = 2.7353 1942 ~ 213 / 82 = 2.23171 1943 ~ 274 / 94 = 2.32979 Chits added to the counter mix by year: 1939 (30) ~ Zero x1, One x9, Two x7, Three x6, Four x6, Five x1 1940 (23) ~ Zero x4, One x10, Two x6, Three x3 1941 (15) ~ One x1, Two x3, Three x11 1942 (14) ~ Three x14 1943 (12) ~ Three x12 From Players Manual Volume 1, Acknowledgments Nils Andresen and Paul Derynck – Outside of their work as beta testers, these two jointly performed the analysis of US entry chits so the finite pool of chits in the board game could be converted to an infinite distribution for MWiF without altering the basic accumulation of chits in the various US entry pools. Nils did his analysis using statistical theory and Paul wrote a Monte Carlo simulation to empirically test prospective distributions. In concert they arrived at the probability distribution used in MWiF, which both theoretically and empirically mimics the finite pool of chits in the board game. Among other tasks, Nils performed extensive beta testing of naval movement and combat and Paul served as my number one WIF rules guru. Oh I didn't say statisticaly the random chits were better or worse.. just that at least with the physical ones you knew eventually you'd have a better chance at bigger numbers [:'(]

AxelNL -> RE: USE chits (2/12/2014 6:34:06 PM)
Well, it reads that that was simulated as well. Which leaves only the human feeling lacking: looking at a slowly diminishing heap of counters, knowing that your turn will eventually come, When that stream of "1"s happens, know that there is also a lucky guy looking at the opposite happening. That is how statistics is best interpreted, I feel.

petracelli -> RE: USE chits (2/12/2014 9:15:56 PM)
Please tell me I am mis reading this. Use is one of the most important aspects of how a game will pan out and altering it so it is possible for the Us to draw nothing but 1s in my humble opinion based on 20 plus years of wif is not the best thing I have read about MWif. Steve any chance of an option to leave it as per the game with the limited number of chits?

AxelNL -> RE: USE chits (2/12/2014 9:23:39 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: petracelli Please tell me I am mis reading this. Use is one of the most important aspects of how a game will pan out and altering it so it is possible for the Us to draw nothing but 1s in my humble opinion based on 20 plus years of wif is not the best thing I have read about MWif. Steve any chance of an option to leave it as per the game with the limited number of chits? As I interpret above both the distribution per year and the limited number of chits was simulated by the appropriate random distributions. We shouldn't worry, and for the really unlucky: the string of '1's will ultimately stop. My current game featured in the first turns only 4's until Russia started to grab land. After that happened I had my share of "1"s. I should have frozen Russia in its tracks....

petracelli -> RE: USE chits (2/12/2014 9:40:59 PM)
Ah but I think it will make a big difference. Especially the effect of the chits for the pacts not coming out. It is often a factor a calculation as to the allies as to wether or not to enter the pact between Russia and Japan as it allows you to get through the 40 pot of Use quicker to allow the adding of the 41 chits. In writing I have just realised with this new system of never running out of chits there are no circumstances by which the 41 chits can be added early. Something that happens quite regularly in the game. The other thing is there is no balance to the Axis being really aggressive in 1940 as they know what ever they do they cannot empty the chit pool and the allies willing be pulling the rubbish 1940 chits. Please Steve can we have an option to play it as the game with the limited chit mix. This is a really big deal for USE and if the gear ups and delayed significantly because of it, this will have a major impact on the later war game. I really want this game to be a success I should add before I get flamed. I have been waiting for this since Adg first advertised it back in the 90s. I have not yet invested as am waiting for net play to be fixed but if there is no way the 41 chits can be added in early this seriously impacts on game balance.

etsadler -> RE: USE chits (2/12/2014 11:43:32 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: petracelli Ah but I think it will make a big difference. Especially the effect of the chits for the pacts not coming out. It is often a factor a calculation as to the allies as to wether or not to enter the pact between Russia and Japan as it allows you to get through the 40 pot of Use quicker to allow the adding of the 41 chits. In writing I have just realised with this new system of never running out of chits there are no circumstances by which the 41 chits can be added early. Something that happens quite regularly in the game. The other thing is there is no balance to the Axis being really aggressive in 1940 as they know what ever they do they cannot empty the chit pool and the allies willing be pulling the rubbish 1940 chits. Please Steve can we have an option to play it as the game with the limited chit mix. This is a really big deal for USE and if the gear ups and delayed significantly because of it, this will have a major impact on the later war game. I really want this game to be a success I should add before I get flamed. I have been waiting for this since Adg first advertised it back in the 90s. I have not yet invested as am waiting for net play to be fixed but if there is no way the 41 chits can be added in early this seriously impacts on game balance. Certainly every player has different ideas of what makes and breaks a game. I have always felt that making decisions based on the fact that it can be used to manipulate the results, like the Allies accepting a Russo-Japanese pact to intentionally try to run out the 1940 chit pool, is the definition of "gamey". Sure, that is just my opinion, and since I am not the WiF expert many here are, for all I know Harry Rowland intentionally designed the pool of chits exactly to support the scenarios you mentioned, and not just because there was only so much space on the counter sheet. I don't say that to criticize, but to say that I think the unlimited chit pool improves the game specifically because it avoids the specific circumstances you desire. One man's meat is another man's poison.

Zorachus99 -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 1:00:03 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: petracelli Ah but I think it will make a big difference. Especially the effect of the chits for the pacts not coming out. It is often a factor a calculation as to the allies as to wether or not to enter the pact between Russia and Japan as it allows you to get through the 40 pot of Use quicker to allow the adding of the 41 chits. In writing I have just realised with this new system of never running out of chits there are no circumstances by which the 41 chits can be added early. Something that happens quite regularly in the game. The other thing is there is no balance to the Axis being really aggressive in 1940 as they know what ever they do they cannot empty the chit pool and the allies willing be pulling the rubbish 1940 chits. Please Steve can we have an option to play it as the game with the limited chit mix. This is a really big deal for USE and if the gear ups and delayed significantly because of it, this will have a major impact on the later war game. I really want this game to be a success I should add before I get flamed. I have been waiting for this since Adg first advertised it back in the 90s. I have not yet invested as am waiting for net play to be fixed but if there is no way the 41 chits can be added in early this seriously impacts on game balance. This was brought up when the change was in progress, and I do not remember why it was decided to rely on the number generator. I no longer have access to the Beta Testing forum.

petracelli -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 5:37:32 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: RickInVA quote: ORIGINAL: petracelli Ah but I think it will make a big difference. Especially the effect of the chits for the pacts not coming out. It is often a factor a calculation as to the allies as to wether or not to enter the pact between Russia and Japan as it allows you to get through the 40 pot of Use quicker to allow the adding of the 41 chits. In writing I have just realised with this new system of never running out of chits there are no circumstances by which the 41 chits can be added early. Something that happens quite regularly in the game. The other thing is there is no balance to the Axis being really aggressive in 1940 as they know what ever they do they cannot empty the chit pool and the allies willing be pulling the rubbish 1940 chits. Please Steve can we have an option to play it as the game with the limited chit mix. This is a really big deal for USE and if the gear ups and delayed significantly because of it, this will have a major impact on the later war game. I really want this game to be a success I should add before I get flamed. I have been waiting for this since Adg first advertised it back in the 90s. I have not yet invested as am waiting for net play to be fixed but if there is no way the 41 chits can be added in early this seriously impacts on game balance. Certainly every player has different ideas of what makes and breaks a game. I have always felt that making decisions based on the fact that it can be used to manipulate the results, like the Allies accepting a Russo-Japanese pact to intentionally try to run out the 1940 chit pool, is the definition of "gamey". Sure, that is just my opinion, and since I am not the WiF expert many here are, for all I know Harry Rowland intentionally designed the pool of chits exactly to support the scenarios you mentioned, and not just because there was only so much space on the counter sheet. I don't say that to criticize, but to say that I think the unlimited chit pool improves the game specifically because it avoids the specific circumstances you desire. One man's meat is another man's poison. Rick Accept that accepting or not the pack could be considered gamey but can also see a valuable 6 go there. The biggest impact IMO is in giving the Axis carte Blanche to do as they please in 40 knowing they can only give 40 chits away. Would be interested to hear from beta testers because cannot see anything other than a major impact.

petracelli -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 5:42:04 AM)
The other thing is this makes no sense in that why wouldn't you use the power of a pc to track where all the chits are. How does have an infinite number benefit the game?

paulderynck -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 7:36:04 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: petracelli Ah but I think it will make a big difference. Especially the effect of the chits for the pacts not coming out. It is often a factor a calculation as to the allies as to wether or not to enter the pact between Russia and Japan as it allows you to get through the 40 pot of Use quicker to allow the adding of the 41 chits. A Russo-JP pact makes a difference of 3 chits per year. if you check RAW, you will see that Russia still only draws 1 chit per turn, not one for each pact she has.

petracelli -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 7:46:16 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: paulderynck quote: ORIGINAL: petracelli Ah but I think it will make a big difference. Especially the effect of the chits for the pacts not coming out. It is often a factor a calculation as to the allies as to wether or not to enter the pact between Russia and Japan as it allows you to get through the 40 pot of Use quicker to allow the adding of the 41 chits. A Russo-JP pact makes a difference of 3 chits per year. if you check RAW, you will see that Russia still only draws 1 chit per turn, not one for each pact she has. You are correct about this but those 3 chits and the 40 pot never emptying irrespective of the Axis actions is a huge game changer and am just struggling to understand why it has been changed.

Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 7:57:57 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: petracelli quote: ORIGINAL: paulderynck quote: ORIGINAL: petracelli Ah but I think it will make a big difference. Especially the effect of the chits for the pacts not coming out. It is often a factor a calculation as to the allies as to wether or not to enter the pact between Russia and Japan as it allows you to get through the 40 pot of Use quicker to allow the adding of the 41 chits. A Russo-JP pact makes a difference of 3 chits per year. if you check RAW, you will see that Russia still only draws 1 chit per turn, not one for each pact she has. You are correct about this but those 3 chits and the 40 pot never emptying irrespective of the Axis actions is a huge game changer and am just struggling to understand why it has been changed. There are no countersheet limitations, which is why the USE chits were used for the Soviet-Nazi pact. And why they were used for the Russo-Japanese pact. Did you ever wonder why all the chits had USA flags on them? As a simulation of world events, having a common pool of limited chits makes no sense. Russia, Germany, and/or Japan have peaceful intentions so the US gets more aggravated? That's hard for me to rationalize as historically reasonable. Paul and Nils worked out that the probabilities are the same as in the board game for the most common cases of events. I trust their work.

delatbabel -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 8:56:27 AM)
The other thing that's been missed, apart from the probabilities, is the mongering of chits by the Soviets. If the Soviets are holding a large number of high numbered chits in their pool they can move them to the JP border and DOW Japan, thus releasing the chits to the USA for entry. Alternatively, low numbered chits can be moved to the JP border if the Soviet player thinks that there is no danger of a DOW from JP. None of this comes into play with an unlimited number of chits in the game.

Extraneous -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 1:19:11 PM)
I do apologize for unleashing this firestorm. I assure you It was not intentional. I only wanted to know if my values for the chits were correct. As I have stated before I could care less how the chits are chosen. You can use statistics or odds it is all the same to me. While I feel that "unlimited chits" are a good idea. There is a large disparity between the calculations for "limited chits" and "unlimited chits" after 1939. With special emphasis after 1941. 1939 ~ 2.33333 vs. 2.333 1940 ~ 1.90566 vs. 1.789 1941 ~ 2.7353 vs. 2.598 1942 ~ 2.23171 vs. 3.333 1943 ~ 2.32979 vs. 2.865 Drawing just the annual USE chits as a model. Using "limited chits" by the end of: 1939 you will have drawn 5 chits with total chit values of between 4 and 21. 1940 you will have drawn 11 chits with total chit values of between 6 and 41. 1941 you will have drawn 17 chits with total chit values of between 12 and 59. 1942 you will have drawn 23 chits with total chit values of between 18 and 77. 1943 you will have drawn 29 chits with total chit values of between 28 and 95. Using "unlimited chits" the minimum total chit values will always be Zero and by the end of: 1939 you will have drawn 5 chits with maximum total chit values of 25. 1940 you will have drawn 11 chits with maximum total chit values of 55. 1941 you will have drawn 17 chits with maximum total chit values of 85. 1942 you will have drawn 23 chits with maximum total chit values of 115. 1943 you will have drawn 29 chits with maximum total chit values of 145.

celebrindal -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 1:33:07 PM)
Well really I was more curious to see who was seeing what for USE more so than arguing one way or the other.. To be honest a bit of a moot point since that's the way it's coded now and it would be a fairly large undertaking to change it. Perhaps in a year or two when stuff has settled way down, AI is in, PBEM works etc etc. My only curiosity was the original intent of the chit system implmented to faclitate a certain average in the USE? If so then there should have been something in place to offset a pile of 1's/4's being 'drawn' that might be doable in a short period of work... but just my 2c [8D]

petracelli -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 7:34:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Extraneous I do apologize for unleashing this firestorm. I assure you It was not intentional. I only wanted to know if my values for the chits were correct. As I have stated before I could care less how the chits are chosen. You can use statistics or odds it is all the same to me. While I feel that "unlimited chits" are a good idea. There is a large disparity between the calculations for "limited chits" and "unlimited chits" after 1939. With special emphasis after 1941. 1939 ~ 2.33333 vs. 2.333 1940 ~ 1.90566 vs. 1.789 1941 ~ 2.7353 vs. 2.598 1942 ~ 2.23171 vs. 3.333 1943 ~ 2.32979 vs. 2.865 Drawing just the annual USE chits as a model. Using "limited chits" by the end of: 1939 you will have drawn 5 chits with total chit values of between 4 and 21. 1940 you will have drawn 11 chits with total chit values of between 6 and 41. 1941 you will have drawn 17 chits with total chit values of between 12 and 59. 1942 you will have drawn 23 chits with total chit values of between 18 and 77. 1943 you will have drawn 29 chits with total chit values of between 28 and 95. Using "unlimited chits" the minimum total chit values will always be Zero and by the end of: 1939 you will have drawn 5 chits with maximum total chit values of 25. 1940 you will have drawn 11 chits with maximum total chit values of 55. 1941 you will have drawn 17 chits with maximum total chit values of 85. 1942 you will have drawn 23 chits with maximum total chit values of 115. 1943 you will have drawn 29 chits with maximum total chit values of 145. I understand what you are saying about mean value but have you factored in that in 1940 the Germans/axis regularly do the following causing chit rolls: Dow Iwith Italy on cw/France 1 chit ( all possibles accepted) Dow Netherlands (1) Dow Belguim (1) Put a Vichy govt in place (2) Collapse Vichy (2) Dow Spain (2) Dow Portugal (1) Long shot but seen it happen once capture gib (1) Jap align Vichy Indo china (2) Close Burma road (1) If the axis know that the only pool of chits the Us can draw from is the lower 40s they might even consider Dow Norway(1) With their being 14 chits to remove the possibility of them coming from the 41 pool is what balances the aggression of the Axis. Have you factored this into your calculations. I love the game and want a wif to work as a ll of my opponents live quite a distance away so this would make it so much easier but by playing with unlimited 40 chits thee is no downside for Axis to bo very aggressive. Please don't take this the wrong way it is not criticism I can see from a certain point of view it makes sense but it rally does effect balance which is IMO the beauty of wif and why it is so repayable. No doubt will get myself kicked of the list but am trying to assist am not looking to troll or anything else. Phil

etsadler -> RE: USE chits (2/13/2014 10:14:38 PM)
The pool of different people I have played WiF with is rather small, which prompts my interest. In the games I have played I can't recall the Axis declining to take aggressive actions because of the state of the USE pool. I'm sure there are a lot of great strategies that I have never encountered, so I'm just wondering, how common it is for Axis players to take the USE pool into account when taking offensive actions?

Numdydar -> RE: USE chits (2/14/2014 12:57:20 AM)
While an interesting discussion, a) the distribution model is NOT going to change and b) I really cannot imagine this is a major issue. Especially since the designer of WiF agreed to let the computer version use this modelling. So if the Harry said it was ok to use this type of system, who are we to argue about its use?

Numdydar -> RE: USE chits (2/14/2014 12:57:44 AM)
double post

rogerdubbs -> RE: USE chits (2/14/2014 1:43:49 AM)
The group I play with face to face goes to extremes to delay or speed up US Entry. For example, in my current game, The CW and Italy were at peace for all of 1941 - the Italians were waiting for the US to come in to join the war. This isn't my style - just how my group plays. quote: ORIGINAL: RickInVA The pool of different people I have played WiF with is rather small, which prompts my interest. In the games I have played I can't recall the Axis declining to take aggressive actions because of the state of the USE pool. I'm sure there are a lot of great strategies that I have never encountered, so I'm just wondering, how common it is for Axis players to take the USE pool into account when taking offensive actions?

vonpaul -> RE: USE chits (2/14/2014 9:55:42 AM)
never seen a 0 chit (drawn about 50)

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