Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Question for Those Who Play Japan (No Lokasenna please) (2/26/2014 9:44:39 PM)
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ORIGINAL: Alfred Any deep moves into "Injun" country always need luck to fully come off. But even an aborted move can reap considerable benefit as it sows into the opponent's mind a new set of conditions they have to guard against. I always point out that the secret to successfully out manoeuvring an opponent is to increase the number of options they have. Particularly when those options involve defensive postures. Any Japanese assets located on the Home Islands are defensive and can be kept there in 1942 by adept Allied play using much fewer assets. IOW, a great Allied force multiplier. I haven't bothered to open up the scenario from the Japanese position but have instead relied on the 2010 planning maps. There I count on 7 December 1941 many weakly held bases directly approachable from the sea. Kyushu 3 bases with zero AV 2 bases with 8 AV Shikoku 2 bases with zero AV 1 base with 9 AV Honshu 9 bases with zero AV 3 bases with 8 AV 2 bases with 9 AV Hokkaido 3 bases with zero AV All these bases have industry and all are on the coast. I commented on three industry types because they automatically suffer considerable damage upon capture independent of the presence of engineers. An important consideration if adopting the Chevy version. However, the Cadillac version allows for Yankee engineers to volunteer their services. Their enthusiasm in the endeavour could see substantial damage caused to Home Island oil/refinery/resource centres and aircraft/engine/armament/vehicle factories plus shipyards, when they capture the facilities. Can you imagine the consternation on the enemy if their Home Island rail traffic of oil to refineries is reduced? Why it would make those overseas oil deposits more valuable and require sealift back to mama through seas saturated with hungry Allied subs. There are therefore many potential targets. About 25 potential target locations. Of course some of these targets may have received reinforcements but ...[:)] With the Allies having 3 SST, three simultaneous Chevy landings can be made. Simultaneously several Cadillac operations could be mounted, remembering that each xAP would be combat loaded to unload fully on D Day and thus will not be carrying a complete Allied LCU. You don't need a regt worth of AV to capture a base with a zero AV enemy garrison. Travel silently; use waypoints to disguise radio identification of destination; send swarms of insects to multiple destinations. Push forward if ID'd, even if he guesses correctly the destinations, the enemy can't swot all the insects before they arrive. Or redirect some ID'd xAPs to other destinations; after all the LCUs are not going to be prepped for the landings so they can easily be sent to a new destination. Ah, decisions and more decisions for the enemy.[:)] Alfred All good thoughts. But. [:)] When I said I looked at four I meant I looked at four with aircraft factories. That to me is the real trade-up for the Cadillac. I looked at many bases through the archived Intel reports and Lokasenna is no dummy. He has units, most with AV, on pretty much everything I'd want. Sapporo, for example, has an Army HQ and a full, very good division. The approach to Sapporo is the easiest, but he's got it covered. Bases with substantial HI or LI are covered. (We're in the last week of May.) I don't know fort levels, but I figure with LCU reaction times from nearby plus the large amount of LBA he can get on my landing in no more than two days I can't expect to take down much beyond a base force before my landing force is mush. An SST can carry about 70 shooters. A fast xAP can carry a regiment, but it can't unload one in a day. And I don't have hot & cold running unrestricted regiments right now. I have a big investment in the Aleutians, Canton, and a few other places I hope to build from later. Two of my SSTs are in the deep DEI/SoPac re-taking dot bases and causing reactions. Re-positioning them to pick up and then hit an HI target would be 5-6 weeks. As far as the approach, I'm not as sanguine as you that very many vectors have a shot. My subs have seen the patrols on the western side of the south side of the HI. Coming anywhere near the Jimas, the Pescadores, etc. would be fatal and a waste. The only way to land I see is the SE flank of Honshu and Hokkaido. Even those I know have quite a few Kates on ASW which could easily shift to naval attack. So, I have a target in mind. It's a trade-off, and it's one target. I would say the chances of landing at all on the western side is 15-20%. On the SE flank 50% at most. I have to keep the ROI in mind. I don't have a lot of soldiers to ask "volunteer" right now. And I think a lot of what I want to do is accomplished by the Chevy as well, which can go off at Para Jima by SST. I'm moving assets, so I have time. But as tasty as the results would be if a multiple-landing op worked, I think the odds of it getting to shore are poor, no matter the degree of way-pointing and flank speed dashes. If I had tried this on Feb 1 I think it might have been a different set of variables.
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