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guanotwozero -> RE: Ukraine 2014 (3/8/2014 9:42:13 PM)
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Most political sentiment in Taiwan IS pro-unification - just not while the mainland is a communist one-party state. The KMT, who dominated Taiwanese politics for decades, were originally the government of all China but withdrew to Taiwan during the civil war. Thus both Beijing and Taipei claim to house the official government of all China.
Of course the practicality is that they are two self-governing states, but there is still an expectation that they will reunify one day. Taiwan won't agree to that until the mainland has free politics (and maybe the KMT might win an all-China election), while the mainland continues to reject democracy and still intermittently threatens to force unification by military means.
I DO think the US will defend Taiwan if the mainland ever invaded, though at present Beijing just doesn't have sufficient means to do so. If/when reunification happens by mutual agreement, then everyone will be happy.
This contrasts with the current Ukraine crisis, as Ukraine has no allies who'll defend it militarily. The USA or other nations won't risk war with Russia, but likely will enact punitive sanctions if it goes all the way. What's more, Russia will likely become a pariah nation to many, and Ukraine will get sympathy and diplomatic support. Russia may dominate here militarily, but can't win the soft-power war.
The track record of countries successfully grabbing land since WWII is not good; self-determination often wins out in the end, and it's diplomacy, economics and soft power that are the biggest factors.
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