OT: Ukrainian crisis (Full Version)

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JocMeister -> OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 12:56:46 PM)

There are videos on YouTube showing (supposedly) Russian helicopters and troop convoys moving on the Crimea. Apparently Russian troops are trying to disarm Ukrainian forces on the Crimea and the Russian Black Sea fleet has closed off Sevastopol.

The Ukrainian government ordered a full mobilization about 2 hours ago. All men under 40 are ordered to mobilize.

Some scary stuff happening right now. [:(]



btd64 -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 1:45:45 PM)

Question is, what will the rest of the world do? will they sit on there hands or do something? I think the new government will need to ask for some kind of help. but what kind?[:(]
GP



obvert -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 1:47:43 PM)

Yes. This is not good. With Putin there seems to be no backing down to diplomacy, no other option than threat of force.

I sincerely hope something happens to stem this before it escalates further.



Gaspote -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 1:59:27 PM)

Except diplomacy the rest of the world won't make anything. It's going to be like Georgie in 2008.



JocMeister -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 2:02:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: General Patton

Question is, what will the rest of the world do? will they sit on there hands or do something? I think the new government will need to ask for some kind of help. but what kind?[:(]
GP


Lots of political sanctions already taking place. But most experts seem to agree that any military interference from the outside is extremely unlikely.

Although both Nato, Russia(!) and the EU has guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for the dismantlement of its nuclear weapons...





JocMeister -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 2:03:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gaspote

Except diplomacy the rest of the world won't make anything. It's going to be like Georgie in 2008.


Sadly, I think you are right. [:(]



btd64 -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 2:19:05 PM)

Hey guys and gals. Keep me posted here. I just moved into a new place. no tv, and no internet yet, and the internet at this McDonalds is sketchy at best.[:D][:D][:D]
Cheers [sm=00000436.gif]



tocaff -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 2:25:22 PM)

It's easy to act when it's a smallish bully, Iraq. This time the stakes are to high and nobody wants to go to war over the Ukraine when they stand to get hurt.



JocMeister -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 2:26:39 PM)

Key point taken straight from BBC

-Ukraine puts its army on full combat alert after Russia approves the deployment of its troops
-US Secretary of State John Kerry warns that Russia faces expulsion from the Group of Eight developed nations
-Nato has held an emergency meeting at 12:00 GMT to discuss the escalating conflict in Crimea
-The Ukrainian parliament is to meet in emergency session
-There are stand-offs between Ukrainian armed forces and Russian soldiers who have surrounded Ukrainian bases



btd64 -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 2:31:57 PM)

Thanks for the update JocMeister.



Jorge_Stanbury -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 2:48:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
-US Secretary of State John Kerry warns that Russia faces expulsion from the Group of Eight developed nations



These are the only kind of measures the west will use: economic and diplomatic pressure. NATO won't be sending any military help



koniu -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 2:50:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
-There are stand-offs between Ukrainian armed forces and Russian soldiers who have surrounded Ukrainian bases


In few places Ukrainian soldiers where disarmed by Russians. Probably Ukrainian small garrisons in Crimea have order to not fight with Russian soldiers to avoid escalation of conflict like in Georgia in 2008



castor troy -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 3:02:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


quote:

ORIGINAL: General Patton

Question is, what will the rest of the world do? will they sit on there hands or do something? I think the new government will need to ask for some kind of help. but what kind?[:(]
GP


Lots of political sanctions already taking place. But most experts seem to agree that any military interference from the outside is extremely unlikely.

Although both Nato, Russia(!) and the EU has guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for the dismantlement of its nuclear weapons...



which is one of the (understandable) reasons why other nuclear powers won't give up their arsenal. You could never trust anyone and you can't do so in future when it comes down to diplomacy, sadly that is.
And a nuclear arsenal seems to still be the ace you should have in your stack.



offenseman -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 4:11:21 PM)

This is very unsettling to me. I sense great evil coming and fear danger is around the corner for more than just the people of Ukraine. No facts to back it up of course, but something just feels terribly wrong about this series of events and the players involved.



GreyJoy -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 4:16:59 PM)

I agree. Noone can do anything more than barking in useless diplomacy



JocMeister -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 4:24:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: offenseman

This is very unsettling to me. I sense great evil coming and fear danger is around the corner for more than just the people of Ukraine. No facts to back it up of course, but something just feels terribly wrong about this series of events and the players involved.


+1

I often shrug at "international crises" but this one sends chills down my spine. Donīt really know why. [:(]



panzer cat -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 4:43:39 PM)

Putin will take the crimea and the eastern Ukraine. We(U.S.)will cancel a few meetings or recall our ambassador. Western European armed forces are a joke, so they will condem the invasion and form a few study groups. The Ukraine is on it's own.

panzer cat



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 5:00:32 PM)

Offered without comment. Interesting points about European banking and the Russian oligarch community.


http://www.politico.com//magazine/story/2014/03/russia-vladimir-putin-the-west-104134.html#.UxNxemeYZaQ



fmj -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 5:01:36 PM)

Not to worry, it's just another U.S. sponsored coup aimed at raping the Ukraines natural resources. Or you can suck down more western propaganda and be delusional about big bad Russia.
Fact is-
-the U.S. is the greatest purveyor of violence on the planet.
-has been behind more violent coups overthrowing democratically elected govts. than any other nation.
-has invaded more nations and started more wars than any other country on the planet post ww2.





adsoul64 -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 5:41:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: panzer cat

Putin will take the crimea and the eastern Ukraine. We(U.S.)will cancel a few meetings or recall our ambassador. Western European armed forces are a joke, so they will condem the invasion and form a few study groups. The Ukraine is on it's own.

panzer cat

+1 word by word, add European foreign policy is a joke as well because there are as many policies as Countries joined to the E.U.



Gregg -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 5:45:49 PM)

I believe the Russian plan is simple:
Secure the naval base at Sevastopol, then shut off the gas supply.
Ukraine will then be in the hard spot of either fighting (on Ukrainian territory destroying Ukrainian property) or giving up the Crimea in exchange for the gas supplies they are so dependent upon.
The UN will do nothing because of the Russian Veto Power.
The EU at best could only issue sanctions and cut trade with Russia (but remember a lot of Eastern Europe is also dependent upon Russian natural gas).
NATO is a toothless old dog, with out any real power any more.
Still, if pushed, Ukraine military and people will fight the Russians.
I just hope it does not come to that.
Gregg



obvert -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 5:49:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Offered without comment. Interesting points about European banking and the Russian oligarch community.


http://www.politico.com//magazine/story/2014/03/russia-vladimir-putin-the-west-104134.html#.UxNxemeYZaQ



Yep. Good article, and pretty spot on.

Guess what? I teach a few of those Oligarchs children from time to time, and a bunch from the hedge fund and financial world whose parents build their portfolios and sequester their funds. It's an interesting world.



warspite1 -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 7:22:59 PM)

Does the politics rule not apply here?



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 7:37:58 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Does the politics rule not apply here?


What's it to you?



warspite1 -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 7:44:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Does the politics rule not apply here?

What's it to you?
warspite1

What a surprise [8|] Typical response from you - mind you I expected nothing else.

On the General Discussion forum political threads - and yes someone tried to start one on this very subject a few days ago - are stamped on and locked. What makes you think you are so special?

Of course its do as I say, not as I do, with the likes of you.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 8:10:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Does the politics rule not apply here?

What's it to you?
warspite1

What a surprise [8|] Typical response from you - mind you I expected nothing else.

On the General Discussion forum political threads - and yes someone tried to start one on this very subject a few days ago - are stamped on and locked. What makes you think you are so special?

Of course its do as I say, not as I do, with the likes of you.



I read that thread. It looked nothing like this one. The one political post here has been ignored. This thread is about economics and military strategy. It could go political, but it hasn't. We AE players are, for the most part, much more mature than that howling bunch of yokels in the general forum.

For that matter, it's a long, loooooong time since you made a post about AE. Why do you hang out here so much? Is it to see a game with both an AI and PBEM, which works, which doesn't cost $200 and was shipped broken, and which was put together by a dev team with utter professionalism?



Icedawg -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 8:17:20 PM)

From what I've read, the people of Crimea want to leave the Ukraine and join Russia. Solution - let them. Self-determination and all that stuff.

Think of it his way. Suppose that Maine wanted to leave the US and join Canada. As long as the Canadians are willing to take them, they should be allowed to go. No need for military action. Just a simple vote by the people involved. Isn't that the whole principle behind democracy?



obvert -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 8:25:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Icedawg

From what I've read, the people of Crimea want to leave the Ukraine and join Russia. Solution - let them. Self-determination and all that stuff.

Think of it his way. Suppose that Maine wanted to leave the US and join Canada. As long as the Canadians are willing to take them, they should be allowed to go. No need for military action. Just a simple vote by the people involved. Isn't that the whole principle behind democracy?


Think of it this way. What if Texas wanted to become a republic again, go it alone? Do you think the US would allow that? With the resources, positioning and size of Texas?

Could the Ukraine exist economically without the Crimea? I don't know, but that area is both strategically and economically important to it, and the area that they're showing on the news that's more Russian speaking and aligned politically with Russia is about 1/3 or more of the country, not just Crimea. Pretty tough to just let that go for the Ukraine.



Encircled -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 8:47:40 PM)

Its far, far, far too similar to the way the USSR dealt with Rumania, Poland, the Baltic States and Finland in 1939-40

Pick a pretext, demand territorial concessions and then occupy the territory it wants, and then probably have a plebiscite to legitimise it all.

Considering it was the policies of the old USSR that resulted in so many ethnic Russians in the Ukraine in the first place, its very worrying





crsutton -> RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis (3/2/2014 8:56:42 PM)

Well, I will not take sides on this nor am I saying any of it is right as far as Russia goes. However, I remind everyone here of the Monroe Doctrine and US policy about intervention with our immediate neighbors. I am not happy about the course that Russia is steering but to say that they have no right to be concerned about a bordering country with a large ethnic Russian population is just naive. The US has taken military, political and economic action to pressure neighboring countries to reflect out interests and protect our citizens. This includes direct military interventions in Cuba,Nicaragua,Panama,Grenada,Haiti,Mexico,Costa Rica,El Salvador and others, and we have helped engineer political coups in many other countries. I am not saying that this policy is right or wrong. Sometimes it has been justified-sometimes not. But what I am saying is that the Ukraine is definitely in the Russian sphere of influence, and although we can get mad and blow a lot of hot air, save for going to war, there is very little we (the US) can do in this region. Russia has been many times the brute in this region but the face of Ukrainian nationalism has been very ugly at times. Lots of Jews and Poles can attest to that.

I think it is time to take a step back and look at the whole situation rather than be so hasty with our opinions. The history of this area is complex and tragic. Don't allow yourself to be fooled by the media. This situation has a lot more to do with a serious and dangerous ethnic conflict than it has to do with a fight to embrace democracy.



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