|
Juramentado -> RE: US Navy ASM capabilities (9/6/2014 5:21:01 PM)
|
The issue isn't so much that a Harpoon or TASM replacement is lacking; it's more that modern offensive operations no longer envision traditional exchange of organic-fire salvos between Fleets as an exclusive engagement. The US Navy would never operate forward without significant aviation elements - that may be carrier power alone, or combined with Air Force elements. This theoretically counters the advantages of an enemy configured for A2AD using ASCMs. Salvos of ASMs are only part of the overall equation to degrade or remove the enemy's combat power.
Another part of that misconception is doctrinal. Up until the mid-90s, the USN was configured to fight a defensive war. When you look at "Navy Crosses Waiting To Happen" like the Kirov, basically a floating nuc-powered SAM magazine with an addiction to ASCMs, even the most liberal left-wing hippie would concur it's the poster child for the term "First Strike Weapon." [:D] It was designed to shoot everything off, first, fast and furious - and what it hit was guaranteed not to get back up, ever. Conventional TASM or TLAM was never in concentrations aboard US platforms to even come close to that. That's why Harpoon was such a bolt-on because it was - Teledyne even got a "no-bid" contract to deploy it in it's infancy, we were in that much of a hurry to give some interim capability to our ships.
Then there's this other really annoying trend that irks me as a naval observer - there's a perceived missile gap because everyone is focused on independent steaming, which most navies avoid in wartime. We keep thinking as the general public that platforms like LCS are helpless in Phase 0 and Phase 1, but no one bothers to think about what that means. "Shaping Operations" are exactly that, the prelude to the dance - non-kinetic activities designed to get the opponent to reveal their capabilities unintentionally, get a good look at their TTP, reassure and train our allies, force them away from going to Phase 2 because yes, shooting at even a supposedly dinky LCS might bring the rest of the Navy down on them. Believe it or not, RAM is extremely effective at point defense, and the latest blocks of it and Phalanx now allow anti-ship (yep, small boat but still valid ASuW) and anti-helo.
Granted Phase 0 and 1 are NOT sexy, but that is actually the bulk of current operations today. As part of the Maritime Security thinktank I support, we've recently kicked around the reality of Brahmos. India is planning on selling it to both India and Venezuela. Talk about serving both sides of the aisle. But yet, the general unclassified discussion is that Brahmos is nice, but very vulnerable to soft-kill. Speaking of which, that's the part that's the hardest to model anywhere. If there's anything that's more sensitive than encryption codes, it's the effectiveness of Electronic Warfare. These first strike weapons from a PowerPoint perspective are indeed impressive. The question is, what's guiding the warhead? And how good is it really?
Finally, we come to the really fuzzy part of anti-ship weaponry which starts to intrude into Strategy Territory (I can hear the yawns already), but bear with me for a second. In the Realpolitik (hint hint for the Scenario Writers!), there's a big big difference in moving in a ballistic capable weapon like DF-21 into a theater of operations is VERY ESCALATORY versus some shore-fired ASCMs. You could have fun with changing postures this way. The reason being - no one's national intelligence systems are good enough to immediately distinguish whether a ballistic missile unit is conventional only or nuc-capable. And we know now, decades after the Cuban Missile Crisis, that the world really was one or two miscalculations away from a nuclear winter. It's the assumptions made by either side that result in miscalculations (he wouldn't do that, would he?) - it happens even in very basic Command Post exercises. While the US is contemplating Hypersonic Weapons as part of the Prompt Global Strike initiative (hold any target at risk and strike it in one hour, with an hour's notice), it's exactly that kind of capability that makes the other guy seek asymmetry, possibly with dirtier weapons. ASCMs already have this potential, with their regional range and high supersonic speeds.
|
|
|
|
