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Lokasenna -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (7/29/2014 4:42:40 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I'm thinking Mr. Kane has read your AAR and knows the threat. A player of his caliber will have something in place for such a reaction, but if he doesn't well...
Something tells me he's not concerned with what Jocke does, but has a game plan he's going to follow to net him AV. I think that is what people are missing here. Just thought I'd offer a counterpoint to those clamouring for a raid on the Home Islands. You pulled it off against an unprepared opponent. That may not be the case here.
The possible return is high enough that I think it should at least be scouted out. I don't know how familiar Jocke is with the aerial OOB, but I'd start counting Nell/Betty and LBA IJNAF fighter units out in the field... compare that to the available OOB and you'll have a pretty good idea of what could be awaiting in Japanese waters.
My hunch, however, is that in pushing so hard for AV, MrKane will have almost everything deployed forward. With a perimeter of search, but at this point he's going to have massive gaping holes in his naval search. There just aren't enough units or enough airframes to fill out resized units to get enough search in the air to cover everything. So he's forced to choose either being blind in his AOO and the surrounding areas, or blind in spots around his perimeter or at home.
The Kuriles are a particularly large blind spot this early, with no airfields to speak of, meaning he'll need to send an AV or CS with PA or FP unit(s).
There's no reason Jocke can't both meet/mitigate the threat of losing Australia (though I think that at this point in the war anything from Brisbane north is toast, even if temporarily) and strike at MrKane's guts. MrKane has a plan for AV, sure, and Jocke should have a plan for avoiding it - in terms of what bases he needs to hold or take back before MrKane hits 4:1. There's no reason battles of attrition where even a 2:1 trade in MrKane's favor in a large enough quantity works in Jocke's favor in terms of avoiding AV. Building up Noumea, Tahiti, Auckland, Anchorage, etc., gets you only so many VPs, and honestly they can be taken away for a time (particularly Noumea). VPs for destroying units and industry can't be taken away, which I imagine is why MrKane bombed Sydney.
The Heavy Industry and Fires hits at Sydney actually lead me to think that he's not planning to cross the counterinvasion line. If I were in Jocke's position I'd still concentrate on defending Sydney/Melbourne, but I'd think the odds of MrKane marching that far south to be less than 50%. If he were going to go for Sydney, he'd be smarter to do it right away before forts can be built and before Jocke can react to a landing on the eastern coast. So rather than landing at undefended Maryborough, which is many days of marching from Sydney plus the possibility of major engagements in the Brisbane area, a thrust on Sydney would have been better served by a landing at Newcastle - despite its 6 coastal guns at start. It's entirely possible that he tries to take Sydney, but the actions as laid out so far hint towards a greater likelihood of a play for Australian LCU VPs and denial of the east coast of Australia as a VP bank for Jocke while serving as a large VP bank for MrKane, even in its present unfortified state.
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