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Feltan -> Goodnight Irene (2016) v1.9 -- testing now! (7/16/2014 3:11:30 AM)
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Hello Gentlemen,
Please find attached the scenario Goodnight Irene (2016) v1.9 for testing. Comments and AARs welcome.
Regards,
Feltan
Pertinent Information:
<SCENARIO DESCRIPTION>
GOODNIGHT IRENE (2016)
Scenario Date: Late October 2016
Scenario Created: July 2014, v1.9; tested on CMANO v1.4
Playable Sides: United States
Scenario Design: Feltan
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This scenario postulates that the influence of the United States in the Persian Gulf region rapidly diminishes in light of ongoing political, financial, military and world events. The final act of withdrawal, which was intended to foster peace and goodwill, turns into a much more difficult exercise as coincidental world events take center stage. The context for this scenario is as follows:
2014
The United States continues withdrawing forces from Afghanistan.
Islamic guerillas make great strides against the teetering government in Iraq.
Scandal grips Washington, D.C. as several high-profile congressional investigations dominate the news cycle during the hot summer months further destabilizing domestic and international faith in the US Government.
Diplomatic talks concerning Iranian nuclear ambitions essentially collapse as Iran continues to claim peaceful intentions but fails to comply with international demands.
While the Arab Spring is nearly forgotten by midyear in the West, radical Muslim elements in the Middle East are quietly expanding and making political plans based on the successful revolts in Libya and Egypt.
Israel continues throughout 2014 to deliver the message that a nuclear armed Iran is an existential threat to the state of Israel.
The US mid-term elections in November deliver a rebuke to the current administration; both houses of the legislature are now solidly in the opposing partys control. Government gridlock and a slew of Congressional investigations are forecast for the next two years.
The central government of Iraq collapses and the country reforms as three rump nations roughly centered on the Kurds to the north, the Sunnis in the center, and the Shiite in the south. There is no clear central government authority, and civil war and tribal affiliations dominate local administration. US diplomatic personnel and contractor personnel were successfully removed.
Late year attempts to revive talks on Iranian nuclear proliferation stall and devolve into hollow promises of future meetings. Sanctions and trade embargoes are strengthened.
2015
The year starts with increasing worldwide economic difficulty; the United States Federal Reserve is unable to stop burgeoning inflation and loss of faith in the United States monetary policy. Inflation ramps up through the year and unemployment surges. Interest rates climb, and spot prices for gold and silver hit record highs throughout the year.
In February, Russia confirms that they are under contract to assist Iran developing additional nuclear power plants starting in late 2017.
By the end of the first quarter of the year, the United States has removed all major combat forces from Afghanistan. While generally welcome news on the domestic front, this will culminate in a skeletal force of advisors in country that rapidly become isolated and ineffective and eventually limited to the fortress-like structure at Bagram airfield.
As if explanation was needed, Israel modifies their message to reinforce the idea that any existential threat to the state warrants the full spectrum of diplomatic and military response.
Iran achieves full scale domestic mini-sub production. Sources report six new mini-subs have joined the Iranian Navy in the last twelve months, with six more under construction and an unknown number planned.
The President of the United States makes a mid-summer announcement at the United Nations that all US forces in the Persian Gulf will be removed to allow for the non-proliferation/peace process with Iran to gain renewed traction. The announcement further states that this will be accomplished prior to his leaving office in January 2017. A summit with Iran is scheduled for early 2016. The nations of the Persian Gulf Council are outraged and feel abandoned in the face of growing Iranian belligerence.
The US and government of Djibouti ink a deal for a fifty year lease for land to build an airfield and small naval base to be known as NSF Djibouti in addition to extending the lease on Camp Lemonnier. Construction begins immediately.
Bahrain gives notice that all US forces must be out of the country as soon as possible. Airspace for military over-flight will be denied starting in mid 2016.
China, as the emerging primary consumer of OPEC oil and in light of the pending US economic meltdown, successfully lobbies during October to make the Chinese Yuan the worldwide reserve currency. The US stock market loses a quarter of its value within a month.
Year end budgeting by Congress indicates a very austere allocation of resources for the US military going forward. In addition to the previously dreaded sequestration cuts, many new and existing programs are scheduled to be cut, some systems approaching obsolescence are extended, and the overall force headcount is slated to be reduced by an additional 25% by FY 2020.
2016
The disposition of major surface forces is changing for the US. Starting in 2016, the Gulf area will only have one CVBG instead of two in the area of operations.
The ramp-up to the US Presidential election becomes very polarized and unusually invective. Ongoing domestic and foreign policy is disjointed and ineffective. The world waits for a changing of the guard in Washington, D.C.
The Persian Gulf States start looking to China for military patronage. Several weapons purchases are announced and economic & diplomatic ties are agreed upon. The US and Western powers are increasingly becoming unwelcome in the area.
The US 5th Fleet in Bahrain starts relocating to NSF Djibouti which is rapidly expanding, and is slated to become the central Allied command and logistics support base for both Western Africa and Gulf operations.
Russia surreptitiously makes several unknown but apparently very high-dollar weapons sales to Iran.
By mid-summer, economic indicators in the US are grim: inflation has surged past 10%, published unemployment is above 20%, and gold is selling for $4000 a troy ounce and silver is at $60. With a few quarters of negative growth logged, the US is officially in an economic depression.
Iran delays further nonproliferation talks until the end of the year.
The US military and intelligence communities are asked to leave Oman and Yemen, and anti-terrorist operations in those countries come to an abrupt halt.
June: China slated to send surface task force to the Persian Gulf at the request of several Gulf States.
July: The corrupt central government in Kabul, Afghanistan collapses into anarchy and tribal warfare dominates the countryside. The few remaining US advisors are pulled out before the collapse.
August: The Gulf States as well as Oman and Yemen are rocked with protests and riots by radical Islamic elements. While not on the scale of the Arab spring, the telltale signs of Al Qaeda sponsored unrest are evident.
August: Western intelligence sources are confident that Iran has not only built a nuclear weapon, but appears to have secretly built many of them in previously undetected underground facilities.
September: The last US forces in the Persian Gulf, at Manama, are packing up. Previously developed airfields and facilities have been handed over to host nations as a sign of good will.
October: Iran conducts a successful nuclear detonation in the northeastern portion of the country.
October: Iranian sub fleet puts to sea evening of 20 October 2016; several surface groups follow in the next few days.
October: Merchant traffic in the Persian Gulf slows to a trickle as skyrocketing insurance rates require most ships to seek shelter or avoid the region all together.
October: on the 23rd, the spot price of oil on the global market tops $150 (US) per barrel due to mounting tensions and vastly reduced shipping in the Persian Gulf.
<SCENARIO BRIEFING>
GOODNIGHT IRENE (2016)
You are the commander of the US 5th Fleet. This is a trying time, and you command the last expected surge of Allied forces in the region. While tensions are understandably very high, peace reigns. As the sun sets over the Persian Gulf on 23 October 2016, your missions in order of priority are:
Insure the protection and security of US and Allied forces in the region.
Protect neutral shipping, and insure the free flow of trade through the region.
Insure unfettered rights of navigation and freedom of the seas.
Maintain a non-belligerent posture, keep the peace, and do not provoke regional tensions.
Complete the relocation of the US 5th Fleet headquarters and supporting forces to NSF Djibouti, Africa.
Continue to conduct anti-piracy operation in the Horn of Africa area of operations.
Continue to develop and expand new facilities in Djibouti with assigned resources.
The disposition of current forces under the command of the 5th Fleet is as follows:
Bases:
o Camp Lemonnier
Headquarters, Combined Multi-National Forces (CMF) (notional)
Headquarters, Special Operations (notional)
o Naval Support Facility (NSF) Djibouti (operational and under construction)
Headquarters, US 5th Fleet (notional)
o Naval Support Facility (NSF) Diego Garcia
Forces at sea:
o CTF-50 (CVBG):
CTF-50.1: on station
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76)(Flag)
USS Cape St. George (CG-71)
USS Chancellorsville (CG-62)
USS Sterett (DDG-104)
USS Preble (DDG-88)
USNS Arctic (T-AOE-8)
USS Tucson (SSN 770)
o CTF-51 (Contingency Response):
CTF-51.1: conducting joint-combined training exercise YELLOW THUNDER on coast of Djibouti, to remain at anchor for duration of exercise
USS Peleliu (LHA-5)(Flag)
USS Green Bay (LPD-20)
USS Rushmore (LSD-47)
USS Cowpens (CG-63)
USS Pinckney (DDG-91)
USS Sampson (DDG-102)
USS Topeka (SSN-754)
o CTF-52 (Mine Warfare):
CTF-52.1: leading CTF-53.1, sailing to NSF Djibouti
USS Scout (MCM-8)
USS Gladiator (MCM-11)
USS Ardent (MCM-12) (Flag)
USS Dextrous (MCM-13)
o CTF-53 (Logistics):
CTF-53.1: remaining 5th Fleet assets, personnel, supplies and remnants of US activities in the areas are aboard, sailing to NSF Djibouti
USS Benfold (DDG-65)(Flag)(Detached from CTF-50.1)
USS Fort Worth (LCS-3)
USS Coronado (LCS-4)
USS Milwaukee (LCS-5)
USNS Matthew Perry (T-AKE-9)
MV TSgt. John A. Chapman (T-AK-232)
MV Maj. Bernard F. Fisher (T-AK-4329)
USNS GySgt. Fred W. Stockham (T-AK-3017)
MV Charleston Express (Leased Commercial Container Ship)
MV Washington Express (Leased Commercial Container Ship)
MV Yorktown Express (Leased Commercial Container Ship)
MV Cape Taylor (T-AKR-113)
MV Cape Texas (T-AKR-112)
MS Amsterdam (Leased Commercial Cruise Liner)
o CTF-54 (Submarine):
CTF-54.1: on patrol
USS Olympia (SSN-717)(Flag)
CTF-54.2: completed replenishment at NSF Diego Garcia and in route to area of operation
USS Ohio (SSGN-726)(Flag)
o CTF-55 (Surface Forces):
CTF-55.1: following CTF-53.1, sailing to NSF Djibouti
USS Tempest (PC-2)
USS Typhoon (PC-5)
USS Sirocco (PC-6)
USS Squall (PC-7) (Flag)
USS Hurricane (PC-3)
USS Monsoon (PC-4)
o CTF-150 (Combined Maritime Security):
CTF-150: maritime security
Brandenburg (F-215)(Germany)
SPS Navarra (F-85)(Spain)
Virgino Fasan (F-591)(Italy)
Meuse (A-607)(France)(Flag)
CTF-151: anti-piracy off the coast of Somalia
HMS Kent (F-78)(United Kingdom)(Flag)
HMCS Regina (FFH-334)(Canada)
HMAS Darwin (FFG 04)(Australia)
CTF-152: Persian Gulf security, currently disbanded
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Designer Notes:
1. The bulk of your victory points come from the successful arrival of CTF-53.1 at area GOALPOST.
2. The scenario can end early depending on events.
3. Every drone, plane and ship is important and valuable minimize your losses.
4. Pay close attention to message traffic and follow orders.
5. It is helpful if in Game Options, you have Special Messages selected to Raise Pop-Up.
6. Good luck and good hunting Commander!
Special note to players for whom English is a second language:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Goodnight+Irene
Cultural Interlude:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1Sc77hTkx0
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