RE: OT: Another 295... (Full Version)

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crsutton -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 2:39:40 AM)

There was a good article in the BBC about the white power and Neo-Nazis foreign fighters that are now fighting for the Ukrainian army. Kind of disturbing. This is one conflict that is going to stink for a long time. I think it is best to steer clear of this one. There are no good guys here.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28329329



btbw -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 3:18:56 AM)

Better dont know how many russian nazis fight on other side.




wdolson -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 4:02:45 AM)

Probably best to steer clear of politics here too.

Bill



Jorge_Stanbury -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 5:51:04 AM)



https://ca.news.yahoo.com/australias-qantas-shifted-ukraine-flight-path-several-months-002509373.html


"Some international airlines, including Australia's Qantas Airways and Korea's two major carriers, shifted the route taken by flights operating over Ukrainian air space months ago amid increasing tensions between Kiev and pro-Moscow rebels. The airlines took extra security precautions despite no official ban from regulators on flying through the area
(---) The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said after the crash that "based on information currently available it is believed that the airspace that the aircraft was traversing was not subject to restrictions"



LoBaron -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 7:05:03 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus

Yes, the target selection was deliberate. AGAIN. It was a blip on a screen, looked at by a bunch of armed civilians.

It's happened before, many times. Remember the Vincennes? Or, as I stated earlier, KAL 007.


You may be right that it was not a deliberate attack against a civilian airliner, but an error. In this case the complete moron, egomanic bastard, or as Cannonfodder put it, idiots, theory applies.

I donīt think Vincennes shootdown and KAL 007 are directly complarable to this situation.

Vincennes AEGIS IDīd the blip as an F14, but even then tried to contact the airliner several times over military and emergency frequencies - which where heard but ignored by the Iranian pilots - and only engaged after failing to receive a reply. It still was an error - supported by the faulty AEGIS ID and the Iranian pilots ignoring the radio calls - but at least attempts were made to prevent it.

KAL 007 was shot down over Sakhalin after crossing Kamchatka and a 2 hour flight through Soviet airspace, 500nm north of their planned route, because the pilots failed to note the autopilot to be on heading setting instead of INS (or rather with INS in armed mode waiting for intercept of a waypoint - which never came because of the initial course deviation). After crossing the position of an USAAF RC-135 on station to track ICBM launches, the Soviets then misidentified the airliner as the recon bird. The combination of the pilot error and the presence of the RC-135 lead to the shootdown, but only after the airliner pilots fialed to spot the interceptors or the warning shots fired at them. Also the attack was commenced when KAL 007 received clearance to a new flight level, and the altitude change was interpreted by the Soviets as evasive maneuver.

In case of the Malaysian incident over Donezk obviously none of the above error chains applied. As it looks now it was a flight in non-restricted airspace, on track and on time.
So if it was no deliberate shootdown of a civilian aircraft, it was a complete moron who just found out what that red button on the launcher console of an SA-11 mount does and fired at something bright green without wasting a thought.

Which is as despicable as deliberately shooting at a civilian airliner.

Morons.




String -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 7:17:43 AM)

You guys do realise that it is a possibility that Russia has sent AD systems over the border to Ukraine with specialists to operate them? In fact, movement of heavy weapons such as tanks and APC's over the border has been well documented over the past few weeks.

On the other hand, remember that both the SU and Ukraine operated with a conscription based armed forces. Over the years thousands, if not tens of thousands of men have been trained to operate the BUK complex and it is quite likely that some of them are on the separatist side as well. Sure, their skills might be rusty after 15 years but nothing that a bit of hands on experience can't fix. Now proper fire control and target aquisition is another matter.



Jorge_Stanbury -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 7:51:24 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: String

remember that both the SU and Ukraine operated with a conscription based armed forces. Over the years thousands, if not tens of thousands of men have been trained to operate the BUK complex and it is quite likely that some of them are on the separatist side as well. Sure, their skills might be rusty after 15 years but nothing that a bit of hands on experience can't fix. Now proper fire control and target aquisition is another matter.


I agree to this; SA-11 has been standard Soviet AA system since the 80's. It should be very easy to find Russian or Ukranian "veterans" capable of operating it



btbw -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 8:27:12 AM)

SA-11 is simple and easy to learn how use complex. Rumors said some reservist called to serve in separatist army (by their army profession like tank driver, communication etc). Also many specnaz people detected in same place. These guys possible to use wide specter of own and foreign equipment, very clever and variable.
Crew of SA-11 is only 4 men, 1 of them officer which give command to open fire or communicate with higher command (battery or division).



Eambar -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 10:20:26 AM)

I don't buy the mistake theory. If they are smart enough to operate the SA-11 system (and I assume they only used the TELAR) they are smart enough to know what they are looking at. The Firedome radar will tell them the difference between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

Who ever pressed that button knew they weren't firing at a military target. Why? That's more the mystery.

RIP crew and passengers, I hope it was quick.



Rising-Sun -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 10:20:42 AM)

I am pretty sure it was SAM, if they find out it was the Russia did it, then all hell could break loose. It about time Russia need to stand down!!!



Terminus -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 10:23:59 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Doggie3

I don't buy the mistake theory. If they are smart enough to operate the SA-11 system (and I assume they only used the TELAR) they are smart enough to know what they are looking at. The Firedome radar will tell them the difference between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

Who ever pressed that button knew they weren't firing at a military target. Why? That's more the mystery.

RIP crew and passengers, I hope it was quick.


There's no reason to do this. For ANYBODY. It was a mistake.



Itdepends -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 10:31:27 AM)

I agree- without a terrorist organisation claiming responsibility it's hard to see what any of the parties involved could gain from this unless they sought to blame it on one of the others.



wdolson -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 10:44:19 AM)



quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

From what I've heard most airlines who normally fly over the Ukraine have been diverting their flights. Apparently Malaysia Airlines decided not to do that.

This has been a difficult year for Malaysia Airlines 777 fleet.

Bill


quote:

ORIGINAL: btbw
No restriction for flight over Donbass except air traffic service routine echelon higher then 7900m. All warning from FAA talking about Crimea area.
Before incident.


I heard that later in the day.

Bill



wdolson -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 11:01:24 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Doggie3

I don't buy the mistake theory. If they are smart enough to operate the SA-11 system (and I assume they only used the TELAR) they are smart enough to know what they are looking at. The Firedome radar will tell them the difference between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

Who ever pressed that button knew they weren't firing at a military target. Why? That's more the mystery.

RIP crew and passengers, I hope it was quick.


There are many scenarios where it could have been a mistake, even by an experienced crew.

Back in the 90s a Ukrainian missile battery was shooting at drones, one overshot and hit an airliner. As others have said in this thread, there probably are people who are ex-Soviet, ex-Russian, or ex-Ukrainian military among the rebels and some of those people probably have the training to use a large SAM system. I haven't heard any reports about whether there were other planes in the area or not. It's quite possible there was an Ukrainian military plane at a lower altitude and the missile overshot like what happened to the Ukrainian military about 20 years ago.

I've been hearing all day about the number of SAMs that have taken out airliners over the years including the well trained crew of the USS Vincennes taking down an Airbus.

We may or may not learn the truth. It depends on who gets hurt if the truth comes out and how good they are at covering their tracks. No matter what did happen, 300 innocents who didn't have a dog in the fight were killed. For their sakes I hope justice is served.

RIP. I also hope for their sakes it was quick.

Bill



btbw -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 11:09:38 AM)

Another view of SA-11 in Toresa city occupied by separatists.
[image]http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/hassgunno/68507118/11931/11931_900.jpg[/image]
quote:

There are many scenarios where it could have been a mistake, even by an experienced crew

Separatists targetted AN-26 (as they think) and claimed they shoted down it (it second time, before July 14 on alt 6500 - cannot be reached by Stinger class SAM).
After found 200+ bodies on their territory this bravery information deleted. But google cache remember it.



mind_messing -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 11:25:58 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Itdepends

I agree- without a terrorist organisation claiming responsibility it's hard to see what any of the parties involved could gain from this unless they sought to blame it on one of the others.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus


quote:

ORIGINAL: Doggie3

I don't buy the mistake theory. If they are smart enough to operate the SA-11 system (and I assume they only used the TELAR) they are smart enough to know what they are looking at. The Firedome radar will tell them the difference between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

Who ever pressed that button knew they weren't firing at a military target. Why? That's more the mystery.

RIP crew and passengers, I hope it was quick.


There's no reason to do this. For ANYBODY. It was a mistake.


I'm not convinced.

On the surface it's bad for the seperatists/Russians, but it goes deeper than that. It's spiked international attention on the situation in the Ukraine, so you've now got nations that previously had no real interest in the Ukraine pushing for a resolution (because airliners getting shot down are really bad for buisness). On top of that, it also piles on a load of pressure on Kiev, because airliners getting shot down over your own territory by separatist forces is terrible press.

In return, the seperatists can make any number of excuses, from "We thought it was a military plane. Why was it flying over a war-zone" to "It wasn't us!". It may or may not be belived, but that's not the point.

In short, it's putting big pressure on Kiev. They either have to start pushing the seperatists out with military force (exactly what Putin wants) or de facto cede large parts of Eastern Ukraine to the seperatists (also what Putin wants). Say what you want about Putin as a leader, but it seems like he wins even when it seems like he's losing.



btbw -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 11:27:28 AM)

Well if world still dont understand who shot down Boeing then Putin wins.



Encircled -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 12:05:46 PM)

Putin has already blamed the Ukrainians for "not accepting a ceasefire"

Suggests he knows who has shot it down, and it then begs the question just how pressure on the separatists are the Ukrainians managing to put on?

If they are doing better than expected (certainly better than Putin expected) and the separatists are in trouble, and Putin knows he can't risk invading, then his only chance is to somehow create the situation where a ceasefire is declared and a de facto separation takes place. He wins.

Anyone else think a KGB trained officer would shrink from a course of action like that?

(Apologies to mind messing, its pretty much what you are saying)



HansBolter -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 12:09:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus


quote:

ORIGINAL: Doggie3

I don't buy the mistake theory. If they are smart enough to operate the SA-11 system (and I assume they only used the TELAR) they are smart enough to know what they are looking at. The Firedome radar will tell them the difference between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

Who ever pressed that button knew they weren't firing at a military target. Why? That's more the mystery.

RIP crew and passengers, I hope it was quick.


There's no reason to do this. For ANYBODY. It was a mistake.


You are overlooking the simple fact the pure unadulterated malice can lead individuals to do things that there is no rational explanation for and is not in their own best interest.

There is usually no shortage of malice in a war zone.



oldman45 -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 12:12:49 PM)

I can envision a scenario where a rebel battery commander orders the crew to fire even though the observers suggest not to. The men with the guns tend to be in charge. In my life I have found that most real soldiers do not desire to take civilian lives on a whim. Nut cases and thugs with guns in uniform on the other hand don't care.



Rising-Sun -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 2:06:44 PM)

Well they shouldnt flew into that war zones in the first place, never know what may happen. And look like the whole world now know it isnt safe there anymore.



Erkki -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 2:17:02 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: RisingSun

Well they shouldnt flew into that war zones in the first place, never know what may happen. And look like the whole world now know it isnt safe there anymore.



It isn't a warzone. The only ones shooting planes down are the separatists(and apparently the Russians from across the border). There have been hundreds of civilian flights through the area daily since the beginning of the entire Ukraine-Russian-sponsored separatists-Russian thing.

Trigger happy idiots.



crsutton -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 3:21:18 PM)

I tend to go with those who think that it was just a dumb mistake. Logic dictates that no side could benefit from this action. But who knows, anything can happen in a conflict? And, I stick to my earlier comment. There really are no clear cut good guys in this. Expect the worst, the history of this region is tragic, brutal and sad, and goes back a long way.



KenchiSulla -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 3:46:16 PM)

Mistake or not, it is a war crime and the ones responsible should be found and judged.... People here in the Netherlands are pretty shook up about what happened. Personally I am pretty angry with the retards who pulled the trigger...

OVSE observers are being held 500 meters from the wreckage and are not allowed to go near it...



Dili -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 5:16:54 PM)

quote:

between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).


It could have been be a bomber, a fighter plane.
The mistake is flying above a combat territory, but since the media dropped the ball following it is like it doesn't exist for many - a bit like Syria now - while we go to a military forum and it is all there, so the mistake is even more with aeronautical authorities.




warspite1 -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/18/2014 5:57:45 PM)

Well I'll chuck my two GBP in.

I think its most likely to be a stupid - albeit criminally stupid - mistake. Cannot conceive of anyone, for any reason, actually thinking this would be a good idea and actually plan such an atrocity.

Give boys big boy toys and this is likely to be the result [8|]. Whoever did it, from whatever side, it was a criminal act that needs to be punished....but I doubt it ever will be [:(]



Jones944 -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/19/2014 12:05:36 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RisingSun

Well they shouldnt flew into that war zones in the first place, never know what may happen. And look like the whole world now know it isnt safe there anymore.

Please don't make the mistake of blaming the victims.



panzer cat -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/19/2014 12:49:22 AM)

We can only hope that it was a mistake. I'm sure the sa-11 launcher has been destroyed and the crew has disappeared.



tocaff -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/19/2014 1:21:41 AM)

Anybody care to bet that some nobody will become the fall guy here? I doubt very much that any higher ups in the chain of command will ever be blamed officially and some underling will get thrown under the bus to kill the backlash.



btbw -> RE: OT: Another 295... (7/19/2014 2:02:29 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Dili

quote:

between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).


It could have been be a bomber, a fighter plane.
The mistake is flying above a combat territory, but since the media dropped the ball following it is like it doesn't exist for many - a bit like Syria now - while we go to a military forum and it is all there, so the mistake is even more with aeronautical authorities.



it was not combat territory
ukraine dont have state of war with any country
quote:

I doubt very much that any higher ups in the chain of command will ever be blamed officially and some underling will get thrown under the bus to kill the backlash.

what command you talking about?
bandits and terrorists dont have command or mercy or honor
Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation:
“Let anyone from the military dare shoot at their own people which we will be behind, not in front but behind, let them try and shoot at women and children. Let me see who in the Ukraine will give such an order.”



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