RE: Groundhog Day!

RE: Groundhog Day! (Full Version)

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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 6:03:42 PM)
The thread is not hijacked in any way, I love the discussion!!! I am not sure if it is brilliance on my part but a mix of desperation, impatience, impudence and pure damn luck!! I had about 2 days of that last 8 day operation planned in my head, the rest I made up as I went along based on conditions. That might be one of the most important reasons that I do well in this game, I am willing to give up objectives and not crash forward if it appears the deck is stacked against me. You need to know your opponent as well. NJP conserves his planes and pilots. So, I could manipulate that with him. Knowing he wont send dive or torpedo bombers into a hornets nest allowed me to leave amphibious ships unprotected for one day. Once he hit me with sweeps and they were effective, I KNEW what he would do the next day which would be to sweep the same location again. That gave me the opportunity to attempt to take out his surface forces. It did not work but neither did his 2nd day of sweeps. He will be positioning his ships in the Rabaul area and bringing in the KB because he HAS to if he wants to defend the area in any sense. I dont want to get caught up in that so I will be retreating back to the relative safety of Allied islands in and around Suva/Noumea. He may try to harass the dot islands setting up but there are too many to effectively take them all down before I get airfields up. On to the Truk discussion. The lvl 7 naval base is nice but if you have Rabaul, the difference in distance is relatively negligible. What I am looking for is a stepping stone to Guam. NJP has learned from his mistakes and Merauke is well protected. I am guessing the rest of my previous path is as well. So, if I run up along the coast of New Guinea on the eastern side (which languished into 1944 in the last game) he may not have it as defended. From there I either jump into the phillipines and head for Cam Rahn Bay (an undisputed strategic point) or head straight north for Guam, Iwo Jima, etc. While pursuing an eastern assault on the islands of Japan. It is probably going to be a hybrid of both actually. One of the limiting factors here is the size of Iwo Jima compared to what the Allies used it for historically in the war. It will only expand to a level 4 airfield which seems to not be compatible with all the heavy aircraft used historically. This may be a limiting factor preventing me from utilizing this attack vector very effectively. Another consideration is targets... I have 8+ divisions of troops so 120,000 men and then add in the materials. With stacking limits there is only so much you can allocate to one each base so prepping for various ones with a weight distribution based on their size is sensible. Until I get into the Phillipines, Java, etc there are not that many targets that can hold large quantities. If NJP has decided not to defend the areas that I never took in the last game such as Guam then I had better be prepared to take advantage of that.

Lowpe -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 6:20:15 PM)
What are the 8th free divisions? +1 on making Japan waltz back and forth. This is the time to do this...none better.

witpqs -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 6:23:17 PM)
quote: The thread is not hijacked in any way, I love the discussion!!! Agree with his last observations, BTW. And I hoped you wouldn't mind the mini-hijack! [:)]

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 6:35:33 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe What are the 8th free divisions? +1 on making Japan waltz back and forth. This is the time to do this...none better. The 2nd Australian and 4th Australian divisions plus the 3rd marine division are at or near Townsville prepping for PM. The 25th, 27th & 37th divisions are on New Caledonia resting up after the amphibious assaults here. I think the landings beat them up more than the troops did. The 2nd marine is split between Tabituea and Ndeni and the 1st Marine is at Tarawa. There is another division or two to put together in the pacific and two divisions on the east coast ready to move to pearl and/or forward from there once I buy them out and have the transports (about 2 weeks for the first division to start moving).

Crackaces -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 6:45:36 PM)
Well .. there was a previous discussion in this thread where as kibitzers pass judgment based on their understanding not a very beneficial exchange at all .. especially given the thread owners successes given HIS strategy .. although Alfred can be a little rough .. I found his insights to be most interesting .. however those that do not understand have a tough time and tend to run him off .. open discussion with Alfred and private ones with Nemo is how I learned: #1 it is quite possible (see my first game) to conduct a war in northern Oz .. the key was an early commitment to fly supplies from Alice Springs to Tennant Creek it all fell into place after that ... (pundits posted it would never work) #2 Burma is a great place for the Allies to achieve an early victory (see games #1 and #2) Ramree Island is key to seizing Rangoon ..I built all the little bases up on the border and yes supply will eventually propagate ..(Pundits posted it wouldn't) #3 With an early invasion of Tarawa in my first game .. I bought the full wrath of the IJN .. I posted my regrets It was Alfred and Nemo that pointed out that soon the fuel stocks in Truk would be void before the dogfaces on Tarawa were blown off the island My opponent basically reinforced how difficult it was to get fuel out to the periphery ... What I appreciate is discussions like what witpqs has which is to explore context rather than explain how stupid someone is because that commenter has some hidden mastery of the game There are only two that I know of that have that level of mastery .. Alfred and Nemo [&o] both are reluctant to post [8\|]

Crackaces -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 6:50:07 PM)
quote: If NJP has decided not to defend the areas that I never took in the last game such as Guam then I had better be prepared to take advantage of that. I think that is a key policy .. go where they [IJ] are not and attack ... That is my trepidation with the Hokkaido Hurricane strategy in early 1944 ... the Allies are just starting to match the IJ and then you get into a sure attrition match In 2 games you have found the IJ's weakness and once you started had them reeling from that point on ..

Lowpe -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 6:55:55 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Wargmr quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe What are the 8th free divisions? +1 on making Japan waltz back and forth. This is the time to do this...none better. The 2nd Australian and 4th Australian divisions plus the 3rd marine division are at or near Townsville prepping for PM. The 25th, 27th & 37th divisions are on New Caledonia resting up after the amphibious assaults here. I think the landings beat them up more than the troops did. The 2nd marine is split between Tabituea and Ndeni and the 1st Marine is at Tarawa. There is another division or two to put together in the pacific and two divisions on the east coast ready to move to pearl and/or forward from there once I buy them out and have the transports (about 2 weeks for the first division to start moving). Thanks![&o] Are you still involved in an active training program for your ships, or do they all come on board fully trained? For Japan, I get ships with 15 exp. [:(] Of course, a lot depends upon the style of ship. Plus, you should see the Captains![X(] Scraping the bottom of the barrel...

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 7:11:14 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe quote: ORIGINAL: Wargmr quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe What are the 8th free divisions? +1 on making Japan waltz back and forth. This is the time to do this...none better. The 2nd Australian and 4th Australian divisions plus the 3rd marine division are at or near Townsville prepping for PM. The 25th, 27th & 37th divisions are on New Caledonia resting up after the amphibious assaults here. I think the landings beat them up more than the troops did. The 2nd marine is split between Tabituea and Ndeni and the 1st Marine is at Tarawa. There is another division or two to put together in the pacific and two divisions on the east coast ready to move to pearl and/or forward from there once I buy them out and have the transports (about 2 weeks for the first division to start moving). Thanks![&o] Are you still involved in an active training program for your ships, or do they all come on board fully trained? For Japan, I get ships with 15 exp. [:(] Of course, a lot depends upon the style of ship. Plus, you should see the Captains![X(] Scraping the bottom of the barrel... I havent been paying attention to my ships actually. Most of them are either in service now or being upgraded so it is a different situation than 1942 where it is best to let them sit and train rather than subject them to subs and surface attack for no gain. They topped off at a certain level and remained there. I think it was very low 50's. I highly recommend the tactic for any Allied player as the American fleets start of with a night attack in the 20's and 30's and just get killed during combat.

BBfanboy -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 7:26:27 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Wargmr quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe quote: ORIGINAL: Wargmr quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe What are the 8th free divisions? +1 on making Japan waltz back and forth. This is the time to do this...none better. The 2nd Australian and 4th Australian divisions plus the 3rd marine division are at or near Townsville prepping for PM. The 25th, 27th & 37th divisions are on New Caledonia resting up after the amphibious assaults here. I think the landings beat them up more than the troops did. The 2nd marine is split between Tabituea and Ndeni and the 1st Marine is at Tarawa. There is another division or two to put together in the pacific and two divisions on the east coast ready to move to pearl and/or forward from there once I buy them out and have the transports (about 2 weeks for the first division to start moving). Thanks![&o] Are you still involved in an active training program for your ships, or do they all come on board fully trained? For Japan, I get ships with 15 exp. [:(] Of course, a lot depends upon the style of ship. Plus, you should see the Captains![X(] Scraping the bottom of the barrel... I havent been paying attention to my ships actually. Most of them are either in service now or being upgraded so it is a different situation than 1942 where it is best to let them sit and train rather than subject them to subs and surface attack for no gain. They topped off at a certain level and remained there. I think it was very low 50's. I highly recommend the tactic for any Allied player as the American fleets start of with a night attack in the 20's and 30's and just get killed during combat. Some of the early arrival Allied small craft like AMcs, AMs and SCs can have captains rated as low as 5 naval. Most can be changed at no PP cost but some commonwealth and Chinese pools offer no one with aggression higher than 18! This includes the merchant ship captains pool. I review every naval and merchant captain assignment eventually because you can often get a decent captain at no cost, and that may be the difference between dodging a torpedo, coping with flooding, avoiding collisions, or even scoring a lucky hit on an IJN sub. No empirical evidence that this idea pays off but generally it seems my ships do better than my first few times out when I ignored the lesser chaff. EDIT: Meant to mention that the max training level varies by ship type. For PTs and IIRC, KVs it is 50. Others are 35 and 25. I think DDs can train to at least 60.

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 9:57:35 PM)
Bizzare... [image]local://upfiles/45141/945EC01EDEF641979F425806AAB2A21B.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 10:34:56 PM)
It looks like 1000 LYB's were exchanged for the 22nd Marines/1?

witpqs -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/6/2015 10:55:45 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces Well .. there was a previous discussion in this thread where as kibitzers pass judgment based on their understanding not a very beneficial exchange at all .. especially given the thread owners successes given HIS strategy .. although Alfred can be a little rough .. I found his insights to be most interesting .. however those that do not understand have a tough time and tend to run him off .. open discussion with Alfred and private ones with Nemo is how I learned: #1 it is quite possible (see my first game) to conduct a war in northern Oz .. the key was an early commitment to fly supplies from Alice Springs to Tennant Creek it all fell into place after that ... (pundits posted it would never work) #2 Burma is a great place for the Allies to achieve an early victory (see games #1 and #2) Ramree Island is key to seizing Rangoon ..I built all the little bases up on the border and yes supply will eventually propagate ..(Pundits posted it wouldn't) #3 With an early invasion of Tarawa in my first game .. I bought the full wrath of the IJN .. I posted my regrets It was Alfred and Nemo that pointed out that soon the fuel stocks in Truk would be void before the dogfaces on Tarawa were blown off the island My opponent basically reinforced how difficult it was to get fuel out to the periphery ... What I appreciate is discussions like what witpqs has which is to explore context rather than explain how stupid someone is because that commenter has some hidden mastery of the game There are only two that I know of that have that level of mastery .. Alfred and Nemo [&o] both are reluctant to post [8\|] One comment I have is about point #2. I agree, but it's also the case that some people (not you or Alfred or Nemo) have claimed that supply easily just pours across the Indian-Burmese frontier, which is not the case. As you state, you must build up the bases to get supply to flow, and especially build them up on the Burma side of the border (to get the daily supply-received caps as high as possible). Doing all that takes significant time and investment (also contrary to some extreme claims, also not yours!). And even with all that, barring an end-around or something else, Ramree Island is still key. The best results in supply movement are achieved with Ramree Island's port built to max and with Prome also in Allied hands and no impediment in their direct supply line. The movement of supply across the India-Burma border is still limited but with Ramree Island-Prome you can really support large armies in sustained combat.

Crackaces -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/7/2015 12:40:58 AM)
Absolutely! I know I moved 3 Navy Combat Engineers (SeaBees) to India to build up the bases next to Burma. In addition, I used transports to move supply to these forward bases. My opponent in game #1 helped me by moving forces toward China about the time my forces popped out of the Jungle .. things went south pretty quick ... catching units trying to come back to meet my forces .. BTW) I played a 4th game to late 1942 with NJP72 .. he invaded India and pushed all my forces in a corner near Karachi ... That solved that problem ... Unfortunately, my new position does not allow me to commit the time needed for a game ... (By the time I complete 7 -> 12 hour shifts I want to sleep in 4 days and then it is time to do it again )

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/7/2015 2:41:43 AM)
This game is so wonderfully complex that two games are never alike and the strength of forces changes through the whole game. That is why I do not like to listen to people who try to tell me what I cannot do in game and what I cannot accomplish. Building up bases is the absolute path to supply, literally and figuratively. More importantly, supply is distributed to units in the field, not stored up in bases so seeing the flow of supply is extremely difficult. I love reading Nemo's AAR's and Quixote is another great player who wasnt concerned with what he couldnt do. #2. IF you wish to invade Burma by land, Ramree is the best way to go although I have not had to build it up in my previous game. My thinking on it however is that you can save a lot of wear and tear on your military if you can simply take something farther south like in the Andaman isle chain or even medan, etc. Once the strait of malacca is threatened the reason for the Japanese occupation of Burma is over. But again, due to the complexity of the game you need to have naval superiority, strategic advantage and/or surprise to pull something like this off. Too bad about your ability to spend time on the game but you are wise to recognize your limitations rather than try to extend yourself and suffer for it.

BBfanboy -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/7/2015 5:29:41 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Wargmr Too bad about your ability to spend time on the game but you are wise to recognize your limitations rather than try to extend yourself and suffer for it. I am wondering what kind of boss would expect his staff to be functional on a 7 day 12 hour schedule! I would not want to be the client being dealt with toward the end of that endurance test. How is it the medical profession that knows about human bodies and minds takes the least heed of the limitations of its staff?

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/7/2015 3:22:54 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces It looks like 1000 LYB's were exchanged for the 22nd Marines/1? Yes but it shows that I destroyed 74 of his squads. Not sure why he was so brittle yet able to wipe me out. Probably the tanks. Anyway... Revenge of the Nikunau massacre!!! I probably should have done this first :P [image]local://upfiles/45141/D19A450DA0A84419928360F53AA50F7B.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/7/2015 5:10:46 PM)
Commercial Break [8D] quote: ORIGINAL: BBfanboy quote: ORIGINAL: Wargmr Too bad about your ability to spend time on the game but you are wise to recognize your limitations rather than try to extend yourself and suffer for it. I am wondering what kind of boss would expect his staff to be functional on a 7 day 12 hour schedule! I would not want to be the client being dealt with toward the end of that endurance test. How is it the medical profession that knows about human bodies and minds takes the least heed of the limitations of its staff? This link points to the fundamental problem of hospital staffing ... https://www.emcare.com/RESOURCES/WHITE-PAPERS/pdf/Magic-Number-Whitepaper Note that we just don't see patients and there are lots of interruptions that are "non-billable" but the system does not compensate/recover costs of these interruptions. So the patient pays. Take on average "555" available mins [see the time spent between 720 mins t0 555 mins that is not patient care] .. 19.1 patients average that is 29 mins TOTAL per patient including documentation ... maybe 15 mins to actually converse with a patient .. So to BBfanboy's thoughts .. patients often do not get enough time or love in this system ... BACK TO THE AAR .. Yes I am thinking tanks killed 72 squads ...

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/8/2015 3:07:13 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces Commercial Break [8D] quote: ORIGINAL: BBfanboy quote: ORIGINAL: Wargmr Too bad about your ability to spend time on the game but you are wise to recognize your limitations rather than try to extend yourself and suffer for it. I am wondering what kind of boss would expect his staff to be functional on a 7 day 12 hour schedule! I would not want to be the client being dealt with toward the end of that endurance test. How is it the medical profession that knows about human bodies and minds takes the least heed of the limitations of its staff? This link points to the fundamental problem of hospital staffing ... https://www.emcare.com/RESOURCES/WHITE-PAPERS/pdf/Magic-Number-Whitepaper Note that we just don't see patients and there are lots of interruptions that are "non-billable" but the system does not compensate/recover costs of these interruptions. So the patient pays. Take on average "555" available mins [see the time spent between 720 mins t0 555 mins that is not patient care] .. 19.1 patients average that is 29 mins TOTAL per patient including documentation ... maybe 15 mins to actually converse with a patient .. So to BBfanboy's thoughts .. patients often do not get enough time or love in this system ... BACK TO THE AAR .. Yes I am thinking tanks killed 72 squads ... If you look at the replay again you will see the 72 squads wiped out were on the Japanese side. That was the bizzare part, that I managed to do such destruction before I was eliminated. As far as healthcare, the patient pays for all costs obviously since nobody else is paying into the system. The bad part is the administration overhead forced on you by government is costing more than the actual evaluation and treatment. Once again and almost universally I will point to the government screwing it up for everyone!!

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/8/2015 3:14:23 PM)
Major Invasion Planning Ok, so we are going to take down PM for the 3rd time in a game against a human Japanese player. The first time I scored something like 1000+ to 1 against a dug in regiment. The second time was about as quick although the odds were certainly more favorable to the Japanese. I made a major oopsie in pre-planning in that 2 of the divisions allocated to take PM are restricted to Australia. That leaves the other 2 and if things go on for a long time will allow me to free up the additional troops needed. OOB 18th British Division 3rd Marine Division II Australian Corps Australian Command - At cooktown 2/9th Armored Rgt 2/4th Armored Rgt 85th British AT Gun Rgt 145th FA Bn 134th FA Bn 148th FA Bn 6th Heavy AA Rgt 48th Light AA Rgt II Aus Corps Engineer Bn 34th Combat Engineer Regiment 50th Combat Engineer Regiment All troops with the exception of the combat engineers are 100% prepped for PM. One of the CER's is 50% prepped and the other 2 are prepping for Ponape and Rabaul. On an excel spreadsheet this gives me 1113 AV with 30,662 troops and 39,102 equipment at a stacking level of 44612. Need to get ships into position. This will take a few weeks likely, maybe shorter.

Crackaces -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/8/2015 5:56:45 PM)
quote: If you look at the replay again you will see the 72 squads wiped out were on the Japanese side. That was the bizzare part, that I managed to do such destruction before I was eliminated. Well there is always the famous Gary Grisby die roll! [8D]

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/9/2015 12:30:23 AM)
NJP makes a 2nd direct assault on Chungking. He already is up to 1-2 odds and dropped the forts down to level 5 but took a major amount of disablement for the attack. [image]local://upfiles/45141/0B8E5D58EB7F426F890D87C2D4B40CD3.jpg[/image]

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/9/2015 12:35:36 AM)
NJP has decided to try to take out the mines at Horn Island. Maybe he is planning an amphibious invasion or maybe he just wants clear passage through the strait. It is going to cost him.... [image]local://upfiles/45141/399C22A776D64ED59BAE4208F036581B.jpg[/image]

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/9/2015 12:45:02 AM)
NJP decided not to follow me around to the pacific side of the map, rather keep most of his carriers up east of Darwin. Time to make that a strategic advantage for me. Troops that were scheduled to land at Ndeni are re-routed to KiraKira. He has at least 1 unit there. The only identification I have gotten so far is the 14th Naval Construction Battalion. If that is all the troops he has then the base will fall easily next turn. [image]local://upfiles/45141/33FA173ADA144533B5D06B886CFEA7D1.jpg[/image]

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/9/2015 12:48:01 AM)
I also bombarded the Reef Islands so my back was protected. [image]local://upfiles/45141/4AFBA2E29D784F87895243B28F3534E6.jpg[/image]

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/9/2015 12:54:43 AM)
NJP must have had Nick's on cap from Tulagi. They took out 4 mitchells.. Boo... I use mitchells for rear service and cleanup because they are so fragile compared to the B-24's. [image]local://upfiles/45141/7C56628BBE4A4CD48251177CDAD0D303.jpg[/image]

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/9/2015 4:04:41 PM)
NJP seems absent from the Solomon Sea. Time to take advantage. I smack Tulagi with a bombardment and am rewarded with damaged Nick's. Next turn troops will be landing at Ontong Java and also at Shortlands. I believe the Shortlands are undefended, otherwise the advance air base will be hurting. [image]local://upfiles/45141/D7338F5B2FBD4424956E1F5A6D4F87D3.jpg[/image]

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/9/2015 9:23:41 PM)
When the troops landed at Nikunau in the morning there were still 8 vehicles of questionable condition on the island. By the time it came to rush the island the tanks were not an issue. [image]local://upfiles/45141/FF241C1B651F4EBCABFF001FDD336F3B.jpg[/image]

BBfanboy -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/9/2015 9:27:20 PM)
Looks like the Chinese stole the British plans for inflatable dummy vehicles!

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/13/2015 3:15:06 AM)
April 1943 is ending on a good note. A destroyer escort in a Battleship TF takes 2 torpedoes in 2 separate attacks and sinks. [image]local://upfiles/45141/3708FCA8473547DEAA9040BEB120DB32.jpg[/image]

Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (8/13/2015 3:33:25 AM)
An amphibious assault takes down the Reef Islands. [image]local://upfiles/45141/983B86CDD51A4C81BD6DAE869282DF4E.jpg[/image]

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