RE: The Perils of Victory (Full Version)

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John 3rd -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 4:09:46 AM)

Quite reasonable Sir.

Completely concur with your thinking. Alaska makes for a nice 'follow-on' to PH. Whether it is FOR REAL or not makes no difference. It will keep Michael's attention.

As said before Michael obsesses over Perth. This will APPEAR to be right up his 'threat level' and he'll be highly concerned about it.

Burma is--at best--a minor theatre. Must have enough troops here to hold it but leave enough for the much higher priorities.



Mike McCreery -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 4:10:00 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I now have ELEVEN Infantry Divisions freed up between the Fall of Java (5 ID but 1 is severely damaged) and Pearl Harbor (all in good shape but we're leaving one to serve as direct garrison) and then a fresh ID that departed Fusan four days ago. This ID is now re-routed north to the Aleutians...making this the second ID up there working on its Arctic tan.

Thoughts:
1. Add one more ID for a northern thrust into Alaska. Force: 3 ID, 1 Brigade, 4 TK Reg, and a decent number of engineers.
2. Send 2-3 ID from Pearl to widen the salient in the South by taking Nadi--Suva and threaten New Caledonia.
3. Send 2 ID to Burma to launch an eastward thrust in Western China.
4. Use 4 ID to take NW Australia and threaten Perth.

Yes--I know this disperses the effort but Michael cannot be everywhere at once. Want to FORCE a Fleet Engagement. Biggest chances of that are Perth and/or Nadi--Suva.

Go ahead. Sound off...




I think it is a great idea to continue expanding your lines to encompass... well, everything... LOL!

Have you any concern for the Japanese defense? Where is the supply going to come from for another major offensive?

You cannot force anything. The Allied player can get trapped but not forced.

My hope is that your enthusiasm as well as your economy does not wane going forward as I would like to see what happens in late 1943 and 1944 in this game.



John 3rd -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 4:12:03 AM)

Alaska is already stockpiled with nearly 100,000 supply.

Java is heavily supplied along the same number.

One of the best places for me to fight is the DEI because my fuel is RIGHT there. The Fleet can use it without issue and I can keep right on shipping it to the Home Islands.



Yaab -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 8:23:27 AM)

Wait, what shape is the Pearl's shipyard in?



John 3rd -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 1:25:57 PM)

It has 28 of 100 operational. A mess but still useful.



John 3rd -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 1:26:46 PM)

I got EVERY PH BB. Michael confirmed that there was not a single survivor.



bigred -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 3:11:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Justus2


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I now have ELEVEN Infantry Divisions freed up between the Fall of Java (5 ID but 1 is severely damaged) and Pearl Harbor (all in good shape but we're leaving one to serve as direct garrison) and then a fresh ID that departed Fusan four days ago. This ID is now re-routed north to the Aleutians...making this the second ID up there working on its Arctic tan.

Thoughts:
1. Add one more ID for a northern thrust into Alaska. Force: 3 ID, 1 Brigade, 4 TK Reg, and a decent number of engineers.
2. Send 2-3 ID from Pearl to widen the salient in the South by taking Nadi--Suva and threaten New Caledonia.
3. Send 2 ID to Burma to launch an eastward thrust in Western China.
4. Use 4 ID to take NW Australia and threaten Perth.

Yes--I know this disperses the effort but Michael cannot be everywhere at once. Want to FORCE a Fleet Engagement. Biggest chances of that are Perth and/or Nadi--Suva.

Go ahead. Sound off...



I'm certainly no expert, but based on what I've seen in this AAR, here's my thoughts.

1 - I would definitely reinforce the Alaska arm. I know there was discussion about advancing to threaten the West Coast, and a possible strategic bombing campaign. Even if you've decided not to pursue this, Michael doesn't know that yet, and given your success at PH, he has to be considering that risk. The Alaska moves would be the logical next step, so it keeps this threat front-burner for him, whether you pursue it or not.

2/4 - Both of these could support an objective of isolating Australia, or at least making it more difficult for him to supply. With PH gone, I would guess he will shift most of his shipping to the Capetown route, so Perth would be valuable. He can still route to Adelaide/Melbourne, but Perth would be a good base for raiding into that LOC. Whatever shipping remains from the West Coast will have to take the southern route - again Suva won't block it, but it extends it and gives you opportunities.

3 - Not sure I would commit forces here, it seems like a recipe for getting bogged down in favorable terrain for his defense, and with an extended supply line. It's hard enough as the Allies to force supplies along that route, you would have to send them around to Rangoon first then push them up the trails. I would just seal that route off, maybe make some demonstrations toward NE India, but I would not commit heavy ground forces here. This might work if you were going all in for an India strategy, but this is at best a tertiary objective for you, and if you are focused on isolating Australia, I don't think you'll have the shipping to reinforce additional armies in Burma.

Agree w Justis 2 on points one and three.
2. I would hold the pearl divs in reserve as the Alska plan develops. My planning on strategic damage to US west coast would begin. The question in my mind is would the damage created by a west coast invasion be more horriffic (to Japan and/or the USA) than the traditional turtle up defense the empire normally uses.
Seems everything u need to cherry pick the west coast ports is already sitting in pearl exceptthe extra 5 divisions.
I suspect after Seattle falls the Allies will heavy reinforce the area to contain a breakout then u just use the jap navy to port hop down the coast.

Fuel is an issue. Just forage like Sherman did. Those west coast ports are full of supply and fuel.

The 42 ground war for USA is rough. They have non 42 inf regiments that need to be upgraded then combined into divisions. The replacement rate is 90 per month. If u sit back they will upgrade. If u attack USA the replacements will be destroyed in ground combat and USA will never have more powerful infantry ground units as IJA until late 43.

If u can hold the west coast his ships(portland CVEs, mare island APAs, and SF sqns) cant come in except east coast and Canal.
If you are close or over the 4-1 threshhold going into dec42 then NYGiants will be forced into a CV battle.




vicberg -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 3:33:52 PM)

My thoughts on this playing the same mod. Fuel is already an issue with me. The extra fuel in PH just brings the levels back to starting Scen 1, right? I would be worried about getting too ambitious with Alaska, SoPac and isolating OZ. You can do it, but will you have any fuel after? I'm struggling to get fuel back to the home islands. My Aleutian adventure is draining needed tankers as well as SoPac. I would do one or the other next game, not both. The fuel isn't there for it. Strikes me that if you look at attacks that minimize fuel use, SoPac and isolating OZ makes sense. Perth isn't far from Palembang and you are already positioned for SoPac. Any strong move into Alaska could over-extend you. However, I'm not good at this game, so you may be doing things that I'm not yet.

Also, moving Divs into Burma to attack into China doesn't make sense to me. Burma is a supply challenge to begin with. Moving in from Hanoi is easier to supply and uses less fuel if your goal is to hurt China more.

I personally don't feel that the LOC from Singapore to Fusan is gamey. Japan launched an operation in 1944 (Ichi-go) to do exactly that. They took Changsha but it was too little too late as US took Saipan and started the strategic bombing campaign.



bigred -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 5:23:45 PM)

I would add that you consider adding a second IJ player if you execute a USA invasion. Someone will need to handle the logistics and setting the initial perimeter without the heavy divisions.



John 3rd -> The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 11:00:05 PM)

April 24, 1942
Pearl Harbor

The Japanese Battle Fleet enters into the shambles that is Pearl Harbor. This triumphant entry demonstrates to the demoralized Americans the might and glory of Japan. Seven monstrous battlewagons lead the entry followed by another 45 warships. Following them are freighters and transports bringing supply and engineers to the base. Full restoration may take 4-6 weeks.

Tomorrow will see the arrival of Combined Fleet HQ and Southern Army Command.

Few look upon the destruction of the base and cannot but feel awe. Additionally, seven sunken American battleships lie in the mud or in the destroyed drydocks. There are several of the more air-minded leaders who cannot help but see the destruction then look upon their own battleships, and NOT think about the happening to Japan within this very port...



John 3rd -> The Perils of Victory (7/12/2015 11:04:15 PM)

As highly publicized great seaborne victory parade occurs at Pearl Harbor, an event occurs thousands of miles away to the west. At Soerabaja--in the dead of night--the leading TF of the Kido Butai arrives at this great port. CARDIV2, 2 CAV, 2 BC, 2 CA, 1 CL, and 8 DD quietly move into port. The Task Force immediately fills its fuel tanks and makes room for more to come...

The Spear begins to reform once again in a new theatre where its victory is all but assured!

BANZAI!!![sm=Evil-210.gif]



John 3rd -> Post Number 12,000 (7/12/2015 11:05:25 PM)

My 12,000th Post.

I TRULY have no life my readers...
[sm=00000436.gif][sm=00000947.gif]



CaptBeefheart -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/13/2015 5:49:30 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: bigred

I would add that you consider adding a second IJ player if you execute a USA invasion. Someone will need to handle the logistics and setting the initial perimeter without the heavy divisions.


Sounds like someone is looking for a job. [:D]

Cheers,
CC



John 3rd -> The Perils of Victory (7/13/2015 2:41:34 PM)

The turns go pretty quick right now since PH fell. I am busy re-setting and getting things organized for the next phase of operations while Michael does the same. Am gradually getting things shaken out some so I'll do a tentative plans list for each region:

North Pacific
The offensive will continue up where while we have have non-winter weather. Have already detailed troops deployed up here as well as supply.

Phase ONE:
1. Am moving LBA air up here reinforcing the present forces raising the aerial component to about 350 aircraft. Will bring in my two LIZ groups to give a potentially nasty surprise to anything in Ports up here. Akutan will provide LRCAP for the invasion of Cold Bay. Will reinforce this effort with 3 BB from PH. The 3 CVE are up here and they shall be reinforced by Junyo and Hiyo. Will be VERY CAREFUL in their use since he could attack and waste these ships.

2. Pending on reactions by Michael we'll then jump to Whittier/Seward and take Anchorage. Kodiak will be by-passed and then continuously bombed until we knock it out.

3. IF things stay in good condition then we look at the big end-of-summer move and leap the eastern side going after the Prince Rupert Region.

Up to six Inf Div may be used up here. Have ID already in good prep for Seward, Cold Bay, and Rupert.

Realistically KB shall be back for parts two and three.


[image]local://upfiles/18041/D2B512B1A77B4C829C608F45D3DBDB2F.jpg[/image]



John 3rd -> The Perils of Victory (7/13/2015 2:46:32 PM)

Central Pacific

With Hawaii gone, the Central Pacific shifts to back water. We'll work to build the Perimeter and have all bases well-supplied for whatever is to come.

Hawaii
1. Fix Pearl Harbor.
2. Operate roughly 25 SS out of here harassing the West Coast. This is supplemented by lite forces and AMCs. We'll make life difficult shipping doing anything BUT travel along the edge of the map going to Panama.
3. Garrison Forces shall consist of one Inf Div and 4 Brigades.
4. Kb shall operate out of here periodically threatening the West Coast and American Supply Lines.




John 3rd -> The Perils of Victory (7/13/2015 3:06:00 PM)

South Pacific
Michael shall expect me to take a while to move and prepare for further operations. I intend to shock him by already having movement going on. Pago Pago has two SNLF Assault Brigades present. They have been there for over two months. One is prepping fr Tahiti and the other for the Marquesas. I've got 50,000 supply in the area as well as 20,000 fuel. There is enough here for limited offensive/spoiling attack.

Want it to LOOK like I am moving south in a big way sooooooo we'll take the Marquesas as a prelude to what would LOOK like moves against Tahiti.

Already formed and sent a strong STF (3 CA, 3 CL, 14 DD from Pearl south. Troops are loading at Pago Pago to grab the nearest of the Marquesas (Nuku Hiva). Don't know how garrisoned (if any) these Isles are. Michael likes them so it is a certainty that he'll be thinking about it. There have been 4 SS operating here for the last month so I am reasonably certain nothing is present yet.

Once I grab them, I shall deploy a couple of Base Force Coy and a Naval Garrison unit to hold the place. The SNLF Brigades will fall back to the defensive line.

This is a diversion to make Michael worried and force him to waste more time while my main thrusts (NORPAC and AUST) go forward.



[image]local://upfiles/18041/A561EFA6F44D4DF1A43D2FF39DC0AA93.jpg[/image]



John 3rd -> The Perils of Victory (7/13/2015 3:22:44 PM)

Australia
NW Coast

The main thrust for the spring/summer of 1942 is Austalia.

Phase ONE
1. While the main offensive forces gather in Java, we'll start the offensive with Fast TF grabbing Broome, Wyndham, and Darwin. Michael has already evacuated these bases in anticipation of my arrival. This is a GREAT BOON to me since it took so long to grab Java. Only ONE unit shows at Darwin presently.

2. While these Fast TF do their thing grabbing bases, KB will gather and make a wide detour out in the ocean in an attempt to loop in at the NW Corner of Aussieland and brush anything in the area. In anticipation of this I had sent five AOs from the PH area 3 weeks ago to Java and they are already loading fuel getting ready yo move out for a rendezvous. We'll have one shot at surprise so we'll have to hope the game Gods are with us here.

Phase TWO
1. The landings occur at Pt Hedlund, Exmouth Bay, and Carnavon.

2. Hopefully this will bring on an action with the Fleet.

Phase THREE
1. I have Inf Div at 100% or near 100% prep for Geraldton, Albany and Esperance. We threaten Perth from North and South. Up to six ID may be used in this phase.

Heavy fuel usage here but that is OK. We're close to sources and an keep pumping the good stuff home to Japan.

As stated this operation is to bring on a Fleet Action. My realistic goals are to simply take the NW Coast and drive towards the interior (Tennant Creek, etc...) Onc ehte Operation has reached its climax we leave strong enough forces to make a REAL assault necessary while pulling back the majority of troops to the real defensive line. Call this a massed hit-and-fade (similar in thought to the Marquesas).




[image]local://upfiles/18041/CD33F09C4CAE4CF0A163A300FA922FB9.jpg[/image]



John 3rd -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/13/2015 3:24:39 PM)

OK. Those are the major plans. Got to work in the yard and will check for commentary and reply throughout the day.



BattleMoose -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 12:52:31 AM)

Ambitious stuff, really been enjoying this AAR. What are the details of the mod you are playing?



bigred -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 1:19:32 AM)

I would land at Prince Rupert first to take advantage of any strategic surprise. A trip to Anchorage and Whittier will pull USA units into Rupert. I would force any rail reinforcements to walk across those mountains.



Justus2 -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 2:48:48 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: bigred

I would land at Prince Rupert first to take advantage of any strategic surprise. A trip to Anchorage and Whittier will pull USA units into Rupert. I would force any rail reinforcements to walk across those mountains.


I like this idea, it helps to isolate Anchorage/Kodiak and provides early warning of any relief attempts.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 12:00:57 PM)

I'm not sure moving on Pricne Rupert is a good idea. It's an important base, Michael should know that by now, and he can easily increase the garrison. At least, if my memory is accurate that Prince Rupert is on the railroad. Even if John takes the base, it gives Michael an easy overland target to commit his armies - Canadian and American. Thirdly, Prince Rupert doesn't offer much of a strategic threat as an airbase since Michael is going to have plenty of fighters now.

There are probably better/easier "trip wire" bases than Prince Rupert. I think Alliford Bay falls into that category, as would Juneau and some of the island/panhandle bases further north.

I think John is dispersing his efforts, striking relatively unimportant (strategically) bases all over the place because he can do so and because he isn't sure what else to do. His major hope is to goad Michael into a carrier battle. In this, he might succeed, but only if Michael becomes antsy, which he might not do. IMHO, John would have been much better off concentrating his forces and making a massive campaign that would be partly feint and relatively low in risk (since his forces would be concentrated rather than dispersed and moving all over the map for the next three months). The logical choices would be a major operation (mainly a feint) versus USA (with real targets in Alaska and Canada) or an all-out attack on Oz with the intent of taking everything shy of the Line of Death.

I think the former offered a better chance at goading Michael into a carrier battle and also offered John a better strategic position at lower costs in fuel and supplies (due to proxmity to Japan and making maximum use of Hawaii, a strategic plum that John has taken but is now going to relegate to largely secondary status????).

John, what the heck are you doing?



Lowpe -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 12:37:25 PM)

In Ironman Nasty/Nasty I lost Coal Harbor on Dec 7, and it was a pain in the butt.[:D]





Amoral -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 4:09:42 PM)

I don't understand your strategic goal.
I think you want to provoke a fleet action by threatening Perth. But you have two operations with the objective of drawing Micheal'
s attention away from Perth. And you plan to have the KB in Alaska at the one moment when Micheal might be tempted to intervene with his carriers in Australia.

I predict you will show the KB in support of one of these theatres, and Micheal will crush one of the other two. Even failing that, Micheal wins a massive strategic victory by having you burn 250,000 fuel moving the KB from Perth to Alaska and back.




Sangeli -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 5:33:09 PM)

At first I was pretty skeptical of this joint Perth/Prince Rupert plan but I'm coming around to it. I'm not so convinced the fuel situation is as dire as people are making it because you can stop in the DEI between Perth and Alaska. Yea its a heavy fuel burden but its not going to tank your economy. But you HAVE to guess right where the Allied CVs are correctly or you really could be in a lot of trouble.

The reason I think these moves can be justified is that they actually does serve a single strategic purpose. And that is to let the Allied controlled Pacific whither away which ties back into the PH strategy. The way I see it, an invasion of Canada is going to draw the bulk of Allied attention early on. Assuming you can take Prince Rupert by surprise, you actually have a chance to hold it for some time. Yes there are RR going to it but the Allies have to rail into an Allied base to take advantage of it. IIRC there is a base a few hexes to the east of it but after that there is nothing for a while. Meanwhile, if you take Perth it will cut off the only decent route to Australia for the Allies; everything else is very long or risky. And I would be willing to bet that at that time Michael will be too busy trying to retake Canada and Alaska to worry about Australia which would have become a quiet theater. Eventually by late 42 Australia really might become ripe for the picking. Yes its an ambitious move but luckily for you your flanks should be pretty secure. And hopefully by then you will also have goaded Michael into a CV battle but really you can't predict that. Basically, I can see a scenario in late 42 where Michael is fixated with moving you back from the west coast while you strike at Australia. Good trade for you if you ask me.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 5:46:56 PM)

At this point in the game, the bases in Canada and Alaska that John is taregeting aren't "necessary" to the Allies. What does it really matter to the Allied player in mid 1942 (in the circumstances present in this game) whether he has Anchorage and Prince Rupert? Those are no big deal. He can leave them in Japanese hands until he wants them; and then he'll retake them pretty cheaply in all likelihood. In the meantime, hea can focus on places that are more important to him.

But Michael is probably thinking, "What if John does this or does that?" He probably recognizes the importance of Prince Rupert. If so, he'll establsih a garrison. And he can have a US Army division (or some nice force) in strategic mode at an inland Canadia base, ready to rail transport into Prince Rupert if John targets it. That's what I did in my game vs. PjH three years ago.

The Alaskan and Canadian bases are only vital to the Allies if Japan is making a concentrated effort at waging war against West Coast USA or if the Japanese player is otherwise going for auto victory and relying on base points to maximize the effort. It's too late for the former, and its probably too late for the latter. But if John created "Noise and Thunder" of a massive move against Alaska and Canada to support the appearance of a move against West Coast USA, that might panic Michael and lead him to commit his carriers (if he is the kind of player to spook at this relatively belated date for such a move to have a real chance of success).



Sangeli -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 6:52:31 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
At this point in the game, the bases in Canada and Alaska that John is taregeting aren't "necessary" to the Allies. What does it really matter to the Allied player in mid 1942 (in the circumstances present in this game) whether he has Anchorage and Prince Rupert? Those are no big deal. He can leave them in Japanese hands until he wants them; and then he'll retake them pretty cheaply in all likelihood. In the meantime, hea can focus on places that are more important to him.

Posts like this show why perspective really matters. I think you need to spend more time considering things from the Allied perspective. What other areas can Michael even focus on assuming John is able to take Perth and Prince Rupert? India? Sure. But where will he use his navy? You are forgetting the Allied mindset of focusing on the lowest hanging fruit. When John dangles out Prince Rupert and Alaska to Michael as 42 progresses do you really think he's just going to ignore it? Its very close to Allied nodes of power and Michael is going to see it as an easy place to start the strategic counterattack. I find it far more likely that Michael uses late 42 to push back the Japanese than to reinforce static garrisons because that's just what Allied players like to do. No one likes waiting if they don't have to. And you also need to understand that a vital base for one side isn't necessarily a vital base for the other side. Alaska and Canada are vital bases for the Allies if the Allies THINK the Japanese could use it to their advantage by raiding the west coast. All that takes is a couple of raids sometime in 42 to make the Allies think that more could be coming. How many times in history can you remember instances where attacker fixed a high value on retaking a target while the defenders saw it as strategically insignificant? Too many to count I think.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 7:40:30 PM)

Michael isn't an inexperienced player. He won't panic over Japanese incursion in non-vital regions of NoPac. He'll bide his time and deal with those on his own terms later in the game. There are any number of ways to do that.

John could raise the heat considerably in hopes of goading Michael into reacting more strongly, but John is dispersing his forces all over the map. The action he's taking in NoPac won't alarm Michael unless (1) Michael thinks John is coming for West Coast USA, and (2) Michael misaprhends that there's a real threat there at this relatively advanced date.

In fact, Michael will be breathing a sigh of relief once he realizes that a serious strat bombing effort against USA is off the table. Japanese frittering around at Anchorage and Juneau and vicinity will be largely irrelevant from his perspective.

As the game moves into late summer and autumn of 1942, NoPac can be completely irrelevant from Michael point of view if he wants it to be. He'll probably look to fight the war in the Indian Ocean, Coral Sea, SoPac or Oz, where John's forays will provide Michael with some combined-arm (air/sea/land) possibilities. Michael will want to fight fairly far from John's centerpoint to force John to expend time, units and fuel in distant locales.

John is in the process of ceding his last chance to use NoPac strategically.




vicberg -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 7:43:48 PM)

If John does a surprise attack on Prince Rupert, the KB will almost assuredly have to steam there as it will be far to easy to cut off any resupply. Prince Rupert can be retaken via land if needed, so Allied Navy isn't critical. If John goes the long route via Alaska, then Prince Rupert will be telegraphed and reinforced long before any landing. Once John is committed to any Alaskan/Canadian operations and OZ as well as a deep SoPac Strike, it will open up opportunities for Michael. Whether Michael is ready to take advantage of them or not is the only question. The KB can't be everywhere, so it's either a risk breaking it up, or focusing (most likely on Alaska/Canada). Then Michael has opportunities in OZ.

Too ambitious, IMO. Kill OZ or Kill Alaska Canada. I don't believe Japan has the juice to do both plus a 3rd deep strike.




vicberg -> RE: The Perils of Victory (7/14/2015 7:50:25 PM)


quote:

In fact, Michael will be breathing a sigh of relief once he realizes that a serious strat bombing effort against USA is off the table. Japanese frittering around at Anchorage and Juneau and vicinity will be largely irrelevant from his perspective.


Not entirely frittering. Juneau is 500 VP and Anchorage another 250 (or 350). Lots of VPs there.



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