Odds

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Finarfīn -> Odds (4/16/2015 6:07:57 AM)
Hello, i'have just red this post from Centuur, quote: ORIGINAL: Centuur ... What's more shocking for the Axis is the way the dice ended up during land combat. You made reasonable attacks and you've got nothing in return... That's "ouch". Losing the initiative is a minor inconvenience compared to this... I would like to kwnow from what point an attack is a reasonable one for the others players? Fin

paulderynck -> RE: Odds (4/16/2015 6:43:37 AM)
- the less likely to lose a unit (or worse), - the less likely for your units to be disorganized, - the more likely for you to occupy the hex you are attacking, and - the more likely to destroy the enemy units The above are all factors that go into deciding what is a reasonable attack. Whichever combat table you use, you are in a position to calculate these likelihoods and of course the lower or higher your attack odds, the lower or higher those likelihoods become. Then you gauge that likelihood versus an estimation of whether you can afford to wait to make an attack. Will your combat power or the enemy's combat power increase? What are the chances the weather will get better or get worse? What are the chances the turn will end? FREX You are less likely to worry about getting disorganized if the turn is more likely to end and vice versa. Finally there's the "desperation factor". FREX the Germans have just taken Paris and this is your one chance to counter-attack and take it back. Their other nearby units are disorganized and so are the units in Paris. You know by the way the German player has played that he'll probably declare Vichy when the turn ends. So even at odds where success may only come by rolling a 10 on the 1D10 or even a 20 on the 2D10, you make the attack. Another form of reasonable attack is with "sieges" where all you want to do is inflict casualties regardless of your own losses; then re-org with nearby HQs and attack again in your next impulse because the defenders position is very strong but he can't reinforce it. All of those can be "reasonable attacks".

Centuur -> RE: Odds (4/16/2015 7:09:37 PM)
I agree with Paul. I tend not to attack when I don't get at least a 4-1 odds with no negative modifiers attached to the die roll with the Axis in early war. If positive modifiers can be gained, of course those odds can be a little lower. I'll aim for a +12 on the 2D10 table or better (since this excludes the horrible 14 result...). But even than: always keep in mind that the Germans cannot affort to "fritter" away the good units they have at start. So if you don't have a loss taker available (cheap MIL or MOT division), be careful. Before you know it, your opponent calls for the Blitzkrieg table and your precious MECH or ARM dies... For the Allies, the moment they are "equal" on the frontlines with the Axis, they can start "nibbling" at the Axis lines, because they outbuild the Axis at that point. That means that an exchange of units is a victory on the Allied side (especially when you lose low combat factor units against high combat factor units). That means that 3-1 attacks (again, look at the modifiers) is a reasonable attack. But always keep in mind the golden rule: don't attack if you can't have the worst result possible happening...

Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: Odds (4/17/2015 3:17:52 AM)
Some caveats I would add to the above is that sometimes a poor attack can reap tremendous gains. Taking out a capital for instance, or taking the last factory so the country surrenders at the end of the turn. Another instance is if success in the attack will cause enemy units in an adjacent attack to become OOS and therefore an Automatic success. Another exception is that sometimes I will make poorer attacks against the Chinese with Japan in the late impulses of a turn in order to achieve my goal of destroying at least X Chinese units per turn. Of course that requires the Japanese to have enough units to spare. The reason for destroying X Chinese units per turn is so X is greater than Y (the number of units they can build per turn). Lastly, you might consider weather. If you are in Fine weather in the current turn and the turn is likely to end resulting in bad weather for land attacks, it might be better to make a 3:1 attack rather than forgo destroying enemy units for the next 2 or 3 turns [I am thinking about attacks in the USSR in Sep/Oct]. --- Yeah, there are a lot of different considerations. WIF odds are much more complex that Blackjack's.

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