Near future speculations...reduced US military and world geopolitics (Full Version)

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Mgellis -> Near future speculations...reduced US military and world geopolitics (5/20/2015 2:26:44 AM)


In trying to develop future scenarios, I've been playing around with various "what ifs" for the near future. One possibility I keep coming back to is the possible effects of a reduced American military.

For example, regardless of who gets elected in 2016, what if Congress decides that we just can't afford all those ships and subs and drones, and even declares that amphibious carriers that can carry F-35s count as carriers, so we don't have to have 11 CVNs? By 2020, the active Navy has been reduced to about two thirds of its present size, with only eight active CVNs (which means only two are fully deployed at any particular time). Existing ships have not been scrapped, but they're sitting in reserve and it would probably take months to get them ready for combat if they were needed.

So...what do you think are the likely outcomes of this in the years that follow? What does 2025 look like? What countries are likely to "fill the gap" left by the Americans by beefing up their own navies and air forces? What does the world look like if sometimes India has a carrier group in the Persian Gulf but America does not? Or if Brazil starts deploying a carrier to the Caribbean with stops at its ally Venezuela on a regular basis? What countries might become a bit more aggressive because they think America is more likely to stay out of certain conflicts? Russia? China? Indonesia? Iran? Brazil? South Africa? Turkey?

(Mind you, while all this is going on, we can assume that little problems like terrorism, plagues, economic and political collapse in various countries, civil wars, environmental disasters, etc. are all just as bad as they are now, or possibly a bit worse.)

What are your thoughts? If America started to wind down its military in 2016, with an ultimate goal of about 70% of its current strength by 2020, what do 2024 or 2028 look like?




AaronWallace -> RE: Near future speculations...reduced US military and world geopolitics (5/21/2015 4:24:15 AM)


quote:


For example, regardless of who gets elected in 2016, what if Congress decides that we just can't afford all those ships and subs and drones, and even declares that amphibious carriers that can carry F-35s count as carriers, so we don't have to have 11 CVNs? By 2020, the active Navy has been reduced to about two thirds of its present size, with only eight active CVNs (which means only two are fully deployed at any particular time). Existing ships have not been scrapped, but they're sitting in reserve and it would probably take months to get them ready for combat if they were needed.


This is when I say highly unlikely, everybody loves some stimulus in the form of DoD dollars. I am continually astonished that the sequester has held in respect to the DoD.

quote:


So...what do you think are the likely outcomes of this in the years that follow? What does 2025 look like? What countries are likely to "fill the gap" left by the Americans by beefing up their own navies and air forces? What does the world look like if sometimes India has a carrier group in the Persian Gulf but America does not? Or if Brazil starts deploying a carrier to the Caribbean with stops at its ally Venezuela on a regular basis? What countries might become a bit more aggressive because they think America is more likely to stay out of certain conflicts? Russia? China? Indonesia? Iran? Brazil? South Africa? Turkey?


Nobody replaces them, perhaps the other colonial nato powers will sail to their post-colonial sphere of responsibility but I doubt that they can realistically afford to change their force strength trajectories.

China and Russia would take advantage of the lack of American military presence and you would see a lot more instability in the world.

quote:


(Mind you, while all this is going on, we can assume that little problems like terrorism, plagues, economic and political collapse in various countries, civil wars, environmental disasters, etc. are all just as bad as they are now, or possibly a bit worse.)

What are your thoughts? If America started to wind down its military in 2016, with an ultimate goal of about 70% of its current strength by 2020, what do 2024 or 2028 look like?


I would expect to see a lot of awful, I would think that our newer NATO partners in the Baltic would be back in the Warsaw pack. I would think that north Korea would be a new province of china as would Tibet. Taiwan would still be Taiwan but only because I don't think that would be in China's best interest if we keep buying iphones.



NickD -> RE: Near future speculations...reduced US military and world geopolitics (5/21/2015 7:57:58 AM)

quote:

with only eight active CVNs


It's worth remembering that this is still eight times the number any other country would have, with the US carriers also having larger and much better trained and equipped air groups.

quote:

What are your thoughts? If America started to wind down its military in 2016, with an ultimate goal of about 70% of its current strength by 2020, what do 2024 or 2028 look like?


Pretty much the same - the scale of US military dominance at the moment means that a 30% smaller force would still be extremely powerful. Most of the regional powers which are expanding their expeditionary capabilities (South Korea, the Gulf countries, etc) have long-standing military and economic alliances with the US which are unlikely to be dropped, and some of the newly-rising countries (and especially India) are seeking closer links with the US.



thewood1 -> RE: Near future speculations...reduced US military and world geopolitics (5/21/2015 1:10:11 PM)

Any significant budget cuts would hit new programs and foreign basing more than anything immediately.



SeaQueen -> RE: Near future speculations...reduced US military and world geopolitics (5/21/2015 4:51:02 PM)

The good news about the ships in mothballs is that it generally takes months for wars to start too.

I think it's unclear that other countries would necessarily "fill the gap" in terms of global power projection. A lot of US defense spending is driven not only by necessity, but also the simple fact that the U.S. can afford it and other nations can't. As nation's economies develop, they tend to spend more on defense except in the case of the Europeans and Japan. Europe elected instead to devote spending to it's social safety net (mostly national health care) and Japan has a constitution which makes it difficult for them to devote more to defense spending, although they are increasing it slowly in response to challenges from China and North Korea. I think you might also see the Gulf states expand militarily in response to the worry of Iranian aggression. The Baltic States would remain concerned about the possibility of Russian aggression. Whatever "gap filling" occurs will be in response to local aggression and disputes. I don't think you'll see any nations making a push to become the global security hegemon any time soon. That role would remain the role of the United States' only with diminished capacity.

Europeans suddenly deciding to "fill the gap" at the expense of social spending would be unpopular and so therefore unlikely. I suspect there may be some changes in the future, because of the realization that they cannot always count on the United States to shoulder the bulk of international security challenges, but I doubt you'd see reversal of the trend. You would not, for example, see a sudden large scale naval expansion of the UK. Instead they might aim to develop certain offensive capabilities that they might lack currently or have but only in a limited capacity. Certain types of cruise missiles, and SOF capabilities come to mind.

The Japanese on the other hand might bulk up their defense forces particularly with respect to their naval and air forces in order to counter competing Chinese territorial claims on islands in the East China Sea and the threat of North Korean ballistic missiles. You're already seeing this to a certain extent.

The Gulf states would probably invest in more missile and other patrol boats, corvettes, (land based?) ballistic missile defense, mine sweepers, as well as strike capable aircraft. You might also see them do things like investing in LSTs and other smaller amphibious ships to hedge against the possibility of Iran making a move against any of various islands in the Gulf.

I think Poland, The Baltic States, and maybe some former Soviet republics nervous about the possibility of Russian aggression (e.g. Georgia, Ukraine, possibly others) might seek to bulk up their own forces. They'd probably invest in ground forces and land based air, as well as missile boats, possibly diesel electric submarines, and maybe minesweepers to a lesser extent. They might also attempt to buy shore based ASCMs. They'd probably also try to purchase ballistic missile defense systems.

Those are my guesses.



DirtyFred -> RE: Near future speculations...reduced US military and world geopolitics (5/21/2015 7:40:56 PM)

well, even if there are cuts, most politicians will not risk jobs in their home states. see more pork-barrel-politics...

china and russia will enlarge their influence zones and counter us policy even more succesfully.

there will be no major wars, only local skirmishes, africa, in gulf region, maybe southern china sea. most nations will not risk global economy and resort to "show the flag" to deter any adversary...

BRICS states will build up their blue water capabilities to secure trade and resource routes.

money for additional wars will not be available, china and japan will focus on own nation and will not buy petrodollars anymore.

europe will be more proactive and take more responsibilities in eurasia in regard with their own goals.

turkey and israel will have hands full with syria and iraq, same with pakistan and afghanistan.

soft powers will be more important then military power.




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