RE: 1943 German manpower (Full Version)

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Peltonx -> RE: 1943 German manpower (7/13/2015 8:38:18 PM)

Also peeps

The Russian player is never going to be a stupid as Stalin and let 1,000,000's of men get pocketed,
The German player is never going to be as stupid as Hitler and have Stalingrad happen.

After turn 1 you can throw out all the history books, because WitE is a game of what ifs not you have to play out the game just like Stalin vs Hitler.

I am guessing all the Russian players build 100's of sapper or whatever they want, again after turn 1 the Russian player can build what he wants not what Stalin built.

The combat engine is mostly based on retreat loses which is why the ratio is 2 to 1 and not what was historical for 42 or 43.

Just because history says xyz does not mean Chaos has to be stupid like Stalin, which is why the Russia OOB for 42 is much higher and why hes suffered far less in loses.

And the same for me I am not going to attack all along the front just because.



Peltonx -> RE: 1943 German manpower (7/13/2015 8:41:40 PM)

Loki you know what really really funny?

Chaos link in post# 17 is the very same blog chart I have been posting for YEARS ..

Which is from the book

Again its funny is it not?



Peltonx -> RE: 1943 German manpower (7/13/2015 8:46:00 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Pelton I dont know where you got that chart from but its wrong.




bro bro bro heheheheh

Look at your post #17

The chart I posted was from that site [:D]

Go down the page [;)]

I know I am right the chart is based on data.

So your wrong and I am right, thanks for the link.

[8D]




Peltonx -> RE: 1943 German manpower (7/13/2015 9:06:04 PM)

All joking aside.

I think Chaos and I agree that German losses seem slightly low and that Russian losses are massively low.

But again we are just not going to make the same mistakes as Hitler and Stalin.

So we can't really follow those charts to a tee.

I think on balance morvael, Denniss and 2by3 have a great game. Clearly the best to date on the Eastern Front.




chaos45 -> RE: 1943 German manpower (7/13/2015 10:18:40 PM)

Agreed its a solid game, and alot of my comments are comments to improve the game.

More data is for sure needed I think overall from more plays- currently both sides have an extremely steep learning curve for 1941.

Despite what you say about Soviet players being allowed several mistakes and still doing okay I kinda disagree, especially early on in the game when forces are sparse a mistake then can cost the soviets game as you have shown several times in your AARs.

However the Germans have the same very steep learning curve. In that a missed turn or two of forward moment can doom the campaign very early.

I do feel the casualty issues are causing alot of run away play by both sides though. As effectively you have never ending offensives that only end if your rail line doesnt keep up.

Also as to my chart- I using the chart where he talks about total front strength. The casualty chart is still wrong and as you can see where he references it from are two different sources for German/Soviet.

The Soviet records on the chart are official records, the Germans he got from a Forum.....so unless he has a solid source to back up the German losses they are effectively made up.

An I can tell you they dont include all losses as they dont add up to the over 10 million total German KIA/WIA and 10 million POW by wars end. When the majority of German losses were suffered on the eastern front.

Total German losses against the Soviets is somewhere around 10 million plus for the 4 years they fought when you include WIA/POWs.




Peltonx -> RE: 1943 German manpower (7/14/2015 1:08:24 AM)

By 45 everyone was MIA or surrendered, we can hardly call them part of the data. The Allies generally love to because that evens things out, but causes games to miss the boat.

42-44 was a blood bath and Russia was getting ground down by Germany. Population were only 2.5 to 1

Russia was suffering 4.5 to 1 loses at best 42-44.

IF and its a big if it was only Germany vs Russia its clear looking at the data Russia could not keep up with those loses.

Young people easly see the data for what its is over 40ish forget it.

The game is Germany pushing forward followed by a short stalemate then Russia pushing forward.

Look at my game vs smokendave 258 VP's and hes going to get a draw atleast, going to be close never seen a game played out where Germany draws or wins for that matter.

I should add game game where 2by3 does not have to add a million AP points.




chaos45 -> RE: 1943 German manpower (7/14/2015 2:00:24 AM)

I agree on the POW issue which is if you noticed I didnt include POW in my main averages. If I had the averages would have been double to triple what I put.

Also the Germans did suffer over 1 Million POWs to the soviets pre-1945 im pretty sure, would be a stat I would have to research more...but when you count stalingrad, bagration, and numerous other smaller encirclements pretty sure they hit over 1 million POWs before the end run in 1945. Then a couple million more in 1945 from everyone that couldnt get to the west.

In 1945 from January on they also suffered much more attrition losses to POWs as some units were just giving up at times especially the new units being thrown into the front with little training.

Historically speaking Berlin most likely could have been taken in late 1944 I think. However Political and industry objectives won out I think in the overall plan. As stalin wanted as much of Europe as possible before the war ended and Zhukov was being a tad bit timid at the end thinking he was still facing early war German maneuver forces. He really was worried about a massive German counterattack force that just didnt exist...as the force he was worried about had mainly been defeated in the fighting to re-open lines to riga and in the defense of Prussia. Alot of really good German armored units where ground up and basically completely destroyed in those battles.

As to your statistics and ratios- a few things do really mess with that theory...first off if the war is only Germany vs Russia the chances are truly that the Soviet union might win out on pure statistics----I think the chance is honestly probably 50/50 because historically the Attacker does always take more losses and from late 1942 on the German army was the strategic defender...to eventually win the war the Germans would have to go on the offensive again and if you compare German losses in their offensive/counteroffensive operations from 1943 on there were much closer loss ratios. Also Stalin was in a hurry in the last year of the war to take Europe thus his men were expendable to achieve political objectives. In a 1v1 war thats no longer an issue and in 1944 the loss ratios were much close between the two armies...in fact pretty sure operation bagration one of the biggest operations of the war the Soviets actually did better than 1:1 with the germans for irrecoverable losses. They did suffer more losses when wounded were taken into account but most returned to duty whereas the Germans actually suffered more KIA/MIA/POW losses than the Soviets in that operation.

Now no lendlease would be the biggest issue for the Soviets as the mobility gained via lendlease trucks and rail road engines/cars was critical to their war effort. In general Germany would probably win if you take out all western assistance however it would still have been a very long drawn out bloody affair. Think they made a tv show or series about what if the western allies had sued for peace and left it between Germany and the Soviets and the war was still going into like the late 40s/50s...it would probably be something like that.



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