RE: The Italian Spear (Full Version)

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warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/14/2015 2:19:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

I really need to read up on the Spanish Civil War. It is just that the books on the subject that I have are so hard to read. [:(]

At the moment I need easy stuff. [:D]

The books you read about Vichy and Spain during WWII seems awesome but I suspect that it is heavy stuff. [:(] [:D]


I read some of the basics of the Hendaye meeting the other day. I thought it was pretty telling that German approaches to Spain didn't start until later in September 1940 - after the Battle of Britain was lost.

warspite1

This comes back to my earlier comment "If you are travelling from New York to Los Angeles, why fly via Buenos Aires?". If you want the UK out of the war, attack the UK....

I agree, the speed of the French collapse caught out everyone. When Hitler's "peace offer" in July was ignored by Britain, Hitler realised he had to take the UK out. But how? The obvious way was by defeating the UK directly - and the 'Fat One' told Hitler he would destroy the RAF within weeks - thus enabling a Sealion.

Only when this turned into something of a shambles and the Luftwaffe was seriously weakened, did Hitler show any interest in Franco's initial correspondence (started in June). Note for those who believe Franco was playing a game and never intended to join the Axis, it was Franco who started correspondence - not the other way around.

Mussolini was a complication - but Hitler is hardly blameless here. Mussolini wanted to fight his own parallel war* and Hitler, despite surely suspecting how poor the Italian armed forces were, was prepared for Italy to take care of its sphere - the Mediterranean. Whoops....

* Note the similarity with Franco. Franco was insistent that it was Spanish troops that would take Gibraltar.



brian brian -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/14/2015 2:49:31 PM)

That all goes back to why World in Flames was designed to be a multi-player game, not a 2 player game. The devastating "Italian Luftwaffe dominates Barbarossa" strategy in the game would NEVER have happened in real life either. Ironic that the hypothetical conquest of a near Fascist client state might well have achieved Mussolini's war aims for the Italian Spear - linking the Italian colonies in Africa. If only he hadn't been so dumb as to try and throw the spear at two targets at the same time (Greece & Egypt). So much strategic FAIL in WWII.


Franco was lucky he was so far from Stalin...Stalin's first item of business at Potsdam was designing a punishing conquest of Spain for it's various Axis flirtations. Truman & Churchill refused any more war. And then the Cold War slowly worked to Franco's advantage.



Centuur -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/14/2015 4:23:39 PM)

Of course Franco started the correspondence early june 1940. Look at what just happened in France. France wants peace, and Franco wants territory. However, when the talks really started, the CW had won the Battle of Britain, thus changing the scenery a lot. I bet Franco believed that Hitler would be visiting Buckingham Palace in september the moment he did write his first letter in june. He wasn't the only one in the world who thought that might be the case at that time.

And how could Franco stop supporting the two countries who did send so much aid to get him into power? It was in his darkest days, when Germany and Italy came to the rescue. So I understand completely why Spain continued to give aid to Germany far into 1944.

And yes: Spain could have done more for the Jews. However, that's something which could be said for more countries. Almost all western European countries closed their borders for refugees (mostly Jews) from Germany in 1938-1939. The Swiss kept their borders closed during most of the war for all refugees and did send Jews even back at the border...

The letter of the Portuguese Ambassador in Spain is correct. Spain would have joined the Axis, if they had been ready for war. However, Spain isn't ready and Franco knows it.

So, there are the demands. He knows that they are impossible for Germany to deliver (Equitorial Guinee). Conclusion: Spain stays out of the war...



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/14/2015 4:28:01 PM)

Okay, I think we shall agree to disagree on this one [:)].

I don't think that the Jewish situation in 1938-39 is comparable to what was known in 1945.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/14/2015 6:32:23 PM)

Days of Decision 3 is an awesome game! I highly recommend it! The only problem with taking your position and going beyond it and into WiF is that unless you can hold everyone to it, most people will not take a disadvantaged position than what was historical.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/14/2015 7:22:06 PM)

If this hypothetical discussion goes further, do the Germans reach Gibraltar by the end of August? And when they do, are the CW still there?



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/14/2015 7:40:33 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

If this hypothetical discussion goes further, do the Germans reach Gibraltar by the end of August? And when they do, are the CW still there?
warspite1

The German troops required to take The Rock will be there in early August. The aircraft can be there sooner. Does Franco realise the reality of the situation i.e. that his troops cannot conquer Gibraltar on their own and that they need German help? How quickly can the Luftwaffe be up and running?

Once German units and aircraft are in place, I would think Gibraltar falls pretty quickly, but given Franco's stated plan - that Spanish units take The Rock, does he go off all premature pending the Germans getting there and giving the British some morale boosting early victories?



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:03:36 AM)

I think its critical that CW destroy everything possible before German ground troops get there...including land and sea mines, booby traps, etc... I wouldn't put the mistake (in my opinion) of victory disease on the CW after they spank the Spanish, which is what would happen.

Would Franco attack Gibraltar? How can he not know that he doesn't have the tools? Your write up on the RAF slapping the Spanish air would be what would have happened, after that it would at least dawn on Franco that he needs the Germans...and the Germans would advise Franco to not to do it, and forget about the Luftwaffe assisting the Spanish going in all half-cocked. Does Franco listen?...what would his personality tell us he would do?



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 6:15:14 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

I think its critical that CW destroy everything possible before German ground troops get there...including land and sea mines, booby traps, etc... I wouldn't put the mistake (in my opinion) of victory disease on the CW after they spank the Spanish, which is what would happen.

Would Franco attack Gibraltar? How can he not know that he doesn't have the tools? Your write up on the RAF slapping the Spanish air would be what would have happened, after that it would at least dawn on Franco that he needs the Germans...and the Germans would advise Franco to not to do it, and forget about the Luftwaffe assisting the Spanish going in all half-cocked. Does Franco listen?...what would his personality tell us he would do?
warspite1

How could Mussolini not know he had nothing like the tools required to invade Egypt or Greece? how could Churchill not realise the force he sent to Norway was grossly inadequate? how could Stalin not know the plan for Finland was junk? How did Yammamoto not know the 'plan' for Midway was total and utter toilet?

Sometimes ideas seem like good ones at the time, sometimes hubris gets in the way, sometimes desperation takes over, sometimes people are just elevated to the wrong positions, sometimes the capabilities of your enemy get dismissed.

Re Franco as a military leader? I know the Germans were critical of everyone - the Italians, the Romanians etc. But the reports that came back during the Civil War were to the effect that the guy was out of his depth at large-scale operations - he was a battalion commander!

Beevor states in the Battle for Spain, that Franco did not so much win the war, the Republicans lost it.

Add military shortcomings to national pride and......



brian brian -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 2:21:37 PM)

If you make the Germans nimble enough to enter Spain in July 1940 and put them in front of Gibraltar in early August, the place is toast and the exact details are a little irrelevant to the grand strategy of WWII. Spain may have been in a rickety situation but the Germans had experience fighting in the country and Spain had plenty of people with a serious hatred for England, both in the government and in military command. A few desultory Spanish attacks not working before the Luftwaffe shows up wouldn't really change anything. But Stukas and Me-109s in range of the Straits closes them definitively.

The Germans held the initiative in July, pretty dramatically. The British were scrambling to re-arm enough soldiers to patrol the beaches of Kent and working feverishly to prevent another Rotterdam in London or elsewhere.

More important is that Italy didn't invade Egypt until September nor Greece until late October. But Mers-el-Kebir would have already happened. Give the Axis Gibraltar in August or September 1940 and I don't think anything much happens as a result until 1941. The Kriegsmarine is just ramping up to exploit access to Brittany; access to Spain in 1940 wouldn't gain them much for several months I would think. A great deal of diplomatic confusion on what relations the curious new country of 'Vichy France' will have with all of the warring countries, definitely. The Royal Navy would have to make a snap decision on where to send the nascent units of what would soon become Force H - the Flag Officer at Gibraltar at this time was eventually sacked for allowing a squadron of Vichy cruisers to transit the straits on their way to West Africa = confusion on the British side as well.

Luftwaffe deployments into southern Spain would weaken resources available for a Battle of Britain, definitely = The RAF still wins it. What would the Axis attempt after such a dramatic coup as this? That's why we play the game.



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 4:44:33 PM)

In this scenario there is no Vichy France - Hitler has had to liquidate it as it no longer suited his purpose thanks to Franco's intransigence.

There is no Battle of Britain in this scenario either.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:13:24 PM)

Brian, I agree with most of what you write, except: I'm not sure the Luftwaffe wants to fly down there too quickly and too closely...best to fly air field to air field as the German force makes its way to Gibraltar. I see the advantages of getting the Luftwaffe there quickly though. What kind of AA do the Spanish have?

I think the next operation after Gibraltar has to be Malta, but the situation near Gibraltar has to be decided as well...does the CW take Spanish Morocco (I think it would be a good idea?)...they should take the Canary Islands for sure. How difficult would it be post-Gibraltar for the Germans to make their way to Spanish Morocco? Perhaps that's where most of the Spanish army is located before Germany begins its march south?

After Malta the Greek/Crete thing has to be settled. I think that might take us to the end of 1940? Lets see how things play out realistically. The CW should try to limit their losses as much as possible, at the same time making it as difficult as they can for Germany, and making stands where they can succeed.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:17:22 PM)

Warspite: You make excellent points about the various leaders.

So how do we make some problems for the Spanish before the Germans arrive on the scene?...and will it have any impact post Gibraltar?



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:33:49 PM)

Two things:

1. I think we allow the Spanish to get beaten up a bit and then the Germans have to come to the rescue (Italy revisited!). It will have no effect on the outcome, but make Hitler realise pretty quickly that the Spanish (brave troops if the Blue Division are anything to go by) but are a liability as a whole.

2. What paratroop capability do the Germans have? I know that they earmarked an airlanding formation for the Gibraltar operation. But would this be better employed in Malta? Or to bolster Moroccan defences ahead of Gibraltar falling (to stop the French or British getting jiggy with it down there)?



Orm -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:35:11 PM)

Currently I am considering what such a fast entry into the war for Spain, will have on the Spanish merchant fleet.

Would not a huge part of that fleet be lost? I would expect a fast reaction from the British and a naval blockade of Spain.



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:40:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Currently I am considering what such a fast entry into the war for Spain, will have on the Spanish merchant fleet.

Would not a huge part of that fleet be lost? I would expect a fast reaction from the British and a naval blockade of Spain.
warspite1

I could not get an accurate view on Spanish merchant fleet size - which is annoying.

Two things that will happen imminently before the Germans get a chance to bring the Luftwaffe into play:

1. The British carry out their plan to seize the Canary Islands
2. The British fleet pulverise what remains of the Spanish fleet (in Cadiz?) using every available fleet air arm unit.

Then over time:

3. Spanish merchant shipping is captured as it tries to get back from wherever it is around the globe (probably much of it trading with South America).



Orm -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:43:09 PM)

quote:

2. The British fleet pulverise what remains of the Spanish fleet (in Cadiz?) using every available fleet air arm unit.

Could not RN bombard the Spanish fleet in the ports?



Orm -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:44:46 PM)

quote:

3. Spanish merchant shipping is captured as it tries to get back from wherever it is around the globe (probably much of it trading with South America).

And USA.



Orm -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:47:42 PM)

The more I think on it the more I am leaning towards a total annihilation of the Spanish merchant fleet. Not that I have any facts to back it up.



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:55:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

quote:

2. The British fleet pulverise what remains of the Spanish fleet (in Cadiz?) using every available fleet air arm unit.

Could not RN bombard the Spanish fleet in the ports?
warspite1

Yes it will be a Catapult type operation with the FAA used as well.



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:56:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

The more I think on it the more I am leaning towards a total annihilation of the Spanish merchant fleet. Not that I have any facts to back it up.
warspite1

Yes, remember the Italians lost a large amount (cannot recall the exact % off the top of my head) of its merchant fleet - Spain will be in the same position.



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 5:59:41 PM)

One thing we have not clarified is whether Catapult happens. I suspect so but the timing is tight. The scenario becomes more interesting if Catapult has not been launched.

So we shall say Catapult goes ahead or not?



Orm -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 6:05:28 PM)

quote:

So we shall say Catapult goes ahead or not?

Aye. Without doubt.



Orm -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 6:06:50 PM)

quote:

Spain will be in the same position.

I think that Spain is in a worse position since I believe it to be longer for the Spanish ports to be safe for the merchant ships.



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 6:24:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

quote:

Spain will be in the same position.

I think that Spain is in a worse position since I believe it to be longer for the Spanish ports to be safe for the merchant ships.
warspite1

It's swings and roundabouts. Any Italian shipping that got to Italy was, to an extent protected. But it was getting back to Italy - via Suez or Gibraltar - that was impossible post June 10th. The large loss was due to so many ships being outside the Mediterranean rather than just outside Italy.

For Spain, the ports are indeed more potentially vulnerable (unless the Germans get defences in place) but the ships could, at least in theory, get past a blockade.



Orm -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 6:27:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

quote:

Spain will be in the same position.

I think that Spain is in a worse position since I believe it to be longer for the Spanish ports to be safe for the merchant ships.
warspite1

It's swings and roundabouts. Any Italian shipping that got to Italy was, to an extent protected. But it was getting back to Italy - via Suez or Gibraltar - that was impossible post June 10th. The large loss was due to so many ships being outside the Mediterranean rather than just outside Italy.

For Spain, the ports are indeed more potentially vulnerable (unless the Germans get defences in place) but the ships could, at least in theory, get past a blockade.


Indeed.

I failed to make my main point. For Italy their merchant ships in their home ports were fairly safe. For Spain not so much. And I think CW would act both fast and aggressive. I think they would unleash RN and their local commanders.



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 6:30:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

quote:

Spain will be in the same position.

I think that Spain is in a worse position since I believe it to be longer for the Spanish ports to be safe for the merchant ships.
warspite1

It's swings and roundabouts. Any Italian shipping that got to Italy was, to an extent protected. But it was getting back to Italy - via Suez or Gibraltar - that was impossible post June 10th. The large loss was due to so many ships being outside the Mediterranean rather than just outside Italy.

For Spain, the ports are indeed more potentially vulnerable (unless the Germans get defences in place) but the ships could, at least in theory, get past a blockade.


Indeed.

I failed to make my main point. For Italy their merchant ships in their home ports were fairly safe. For Spain not so much. And I think CW would act both fast and aggressive. I think they would unleash RN and their local commanders.
warspite1

To the tune of Team America World Police

'Royal Navy; F^&* Yeah!' [:D]



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 7:47:58 PM)

Love that movie: "Team America"!

Operation Catapult would happen for sure, and I do not see how it would not (if it has worthwhile targets). The only question is, do we give Franco any kind of intelligence bonus, that if he were to join the Axis, he might want to get the fleet to German ports prior to his announcement (maybe his best warships and useful subs)?

The Spanish merchant shipping, at least some captains if no orders from Franco, might run for South American or neutral ports and end the war there (especially Argentina). So, I'm not sure they would all be captured.



warspite1 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 8:01:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Love that movie: "Team America"!

Operation Catapult would happen for sure, and I do not see how it would not (if it has worthwhile targets). The only question is, do we give Franco any kind of intelligence bonus, that if he were to join the Axis, he might want to get the fleet to German ports prior to his announcement (maybe his best warships and useful subs)?

The Spanish merchant shipping, at least some captains if no orders from Franco, might run for South American or neutral ports and end the war there (especially Argentina). So, I'm not sure they would all be captured.
warspite1

When I asked about Catapult - I meant historical catapult against the French.

The RN are definitely going to attack the small Spanish navy. No one cares if the Spanish merchant navy runs away. a) they could be caught en route, b) they are not intercepted and sit out the war - no problem, or c) they try and run the blockade back to Spain or Germany in which case they will either make it or be caught. If the latter great, if the former - then they can either sit in port or be utilised in which case repeat above [:)]



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: The Italian Spear (10/15/2015 8:27:31 PM)

The only thing I could find was that for Sea Lion, the 7th Flieger Div. and the 22nd air landing div. "had taken losses during the preceding campaign, and were now understrength." I'm not sure what other assets there were at that time. I could bother my cousin in Germany, but he's very old and this would have to be face to face next Summer...he was in the Fallschrimjager 1943-45, so might not even know anything about 1940 anyway. He was in Berlin the last month (Oder River picket between 1st and 2nd Belorussian fronts).



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