RE: Random weather not random??? (Full Version)

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morvael -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 12:13:08 PM)

Manual is not updated, weather tables changed in last patch and they are in the patch notes.
Currently there is 20% chance for mud. It was 9% before 1.08.05, and it will be 5% in 1.08.08.



loki100 -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 12:23:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

Manual is not updated, weather tables changed in last patch and they are in the patch notes.
Currently there is 20% chance for mud. It was 9% before 1.08.05, and it will be 5% in 1.08.08.


this is becoming a bit of a mess - laying aside the suspicion that many have about the south and guarenteed mud in the south on T3.

Basically we are talking about 13 turns (T3-T15) as if I understand the manual then T16+ is not 'protected' ~ ie mud may happen even if it has already occured in that zone.

So do you think that on average, each zone should get one mud instance? If so you need to set the base rate > x*13=100, ie 8. Anything below 8 means that (even ignoring the random per turn element) you are saying there is an under 100% chance of any mud at all in that zone. Your proposed 5% actually gives 65% chance of mud in a zone. So you are saying that in 1 game out of 3 a given zone should have no mud at all.

The 20% not only pretty much guarenteed an instance of mud in a zone but also front loaded it, hence the problem of people seeing T3-T4 mired in mud.

So what do you think should be happening. A small chance of mud in a particular turn and a reasonable possibility of no mud at all in a zone over the summer? Or a reasonable chance of mud in a particular turn and a near certainty of mud in a zone at some stage? The proposed 5% is clearly working on the first bit of logic, but I'm not sure if that is a deliberate interpretation of the weather records and game design choice or if its just a number being used.

Also should the mud event be random across the entire summer or front loaded into July? The higher you set the variable > 8% the more you are setting up this situation.

What I'm saying is the old 9% is pretty much on the sweet spot, a reasonably chance per turn and near certainty of one event in the summer period. But the possibility of none (which I sometimes saw in 1.07).



Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 12:36:53 PM)

I dislike the random weather system. The old one and the new one. It's just too disruptive. The Axis needs to advance as far as possible in the first 17 turns and the Russians need a chance to recover during mud. If you mess with that you are mostly just destroying games.

In my opinion random weather should only extend or shorten the season by one turn. So mud could come one week early or one week late and snow could come one week early and one week late. This could even be extended to the blizzard, especially if people play with severe winter rules. The odds of that happening should be fairly low (maybe 20%).



morvael -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 12:47:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
A small chance of mud in a particular turn and a reasonable possibility of no mud at all in a zone over the summer?


This, because non-random weather has no mud at all from 20th June to 9th October.



Callistrid -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 1:16:56 PM)

I belive the germans need clear turn during summer.
I don't know how was coded, but better to set clear weather on july-august, and the randomness could start on september.
The first 12 turm must be clear, or the mud impact the german effort to harsh.



Manstein63 -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 1:20:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bozo_the_Clown

I dislike the random weather system. The old one and the new one. It's just too disruptive. The Axis needs to advance as far as possible in the first 17 turns and the Russians need a chance to recover during mud. If you mess with that you are mostly just destroying games.

In my opinion random weather should only extend or shorten the season by one turn. So mud could come one week early or one week late and snow could come one week early and one week late. This could even be extended to the blizzard, especially if people play with severe winter rules. The odds of that happening should be fairly low (maybe 20%).


The flip side to this is that non random weather give a godlike advantage to the attacking side because you know with absolute certainty what the what the weather will be in the next turn and every turn thereafter & there is no chance factored in to the equation. It would have been better not to have differentiated between random & non random weather. The weather should have been fixed but with a random change built in for example

In June there would be a 95% chance of the weather being clear & a 5% percent chance of rain 2 or more consecutive turns of rain would lead to a mud turn.

By September the chance of clear weather would drop to 90% with a 10% chance of rain

By November clear weather would be at 30% with a 50% chance of Rain & a 20% chance of Snow 2 or more consecutive turns of snow would lead to a blizzard turn


There would also need to be more weather zones & the chances of blizzard would increase the further north you went & the lateness of the year.
Unfortunately this will not happen in this incarnation of WitE though I am lead to believe that WitW does handle weather better & by definition WitE2 will as well.

Manstein63



loki100 -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 1:29:35 PM)

WiTW does several things that will solve many problems. First it separates out how wet the sky is from how wet the ground is. That matters as the reason the spring mud season was worse and more consistent was that the ground was frozen, on the surface water melted (=pools/mud) and that cycle didn't cease till the ground had dried and thawed. The autumn muds are weather driven, ie rain on poor surface = mud.

So really the spring mud season is fixed in that once it starts it has only one end. The variations are the possibility of a cold spell seeing a return to night frosts and how long it all takes to dry out.

The other advantage of WiTW is that it models the amount of decent transport links below the game scale. So you could see Russia around Leningrad-Novgorod as far worse transport links than say the Smolensk-Moscow region.

Speaking purely personally, the only reason I don't like fixed weather is the extent that utterly distorts game play. See MichealT's numerous axis AARs or one where Oshawatt as the Soviet player really exploited the fixed spring mud-clear routine.

I'd be happy with a compromise using yours and Bozo's idea. Say no mud T3-T9, a chance till T15 and then the possibility that the main weather blocks start or end a week earlier or later than expected? But I suspect this is a long way outside the current patching process.



morvael -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 1:32:46 PM)

As a compromise I can propose no mud in June and July 1941, rest as normal.



Callistrid -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 1:45:15 PM)

[&o]



Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 3:07:54 PM)

quote:

As a compromise I can propose no mud in June and July 1941, rest as normal.


E-Adolf is very happy with this change. No more mud on T3. Time for a happy dance.


[image]local://upfiles/45102/3A3A3516F69849F39830906805BFF6BB.gif[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 5:40:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

As a compromise I can propose no mud in June and July 1941, rest as normal.


looks sensible + fair to me



charlie0311 -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/9/2015 8:02:43 PM)

Morveal, the "Magnificent"

ps. Running low on admin points in my butt-kissing account, just as well:)



sillyflower -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/10/2015 8:14:48 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100



this is becoming a bit of a mess - laying aside the suspicion that many have about the south and guarenteed mud in the south on T3.

Basically we are talking about 13 turns (T3-T15) as if I understand the manual then T16+ is not 'protected' ~ ie mud may happen even if it has already occured in that zone.



It's the 1st 17 turns that are protected by the max. 1 mud rule.



loki100 -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/10/2015 11:42:44 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100



this is becoming a bit of a mess - laying aside the suspicion that many have about the south and guarenteed mud in the south on T3.

Basically we are talking about 13 turns (T3-T15) as if I understand the manual then T16+ is not 'protected' ~ ie mud may happen even if it has already occured in that zone.



It's the 1st 17 turns that are protected by the max. 1 mud rule.



quite prepared to admit I've misunderstood the manual (or missed a patch change) but I was basing my comment on this part of rule 22.2.2:

quote:

There will be at most one mud turn per weather zone during turns from 19 June to 30 September


my reading was that from 1 October that limit is lifted, so you can have a second (or implausibly, a third) instance in a zone in the turns covered that start after 1 October and before 10 October (at which stage the Oct-early November table kicks in).

Given the way week start dates interacts with the fixed calender points, in effect there will be 2 weeks in October still using the September table, but the chance of random mud is not squashed by whatever happened in the main summer period?



morvael -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/10/2015 11:50:52 AM)

In the current implementation 1-9 October counts as September, so limit is not lifted.
The same for other dates (1-19 June counts as May, 1-7 November counts as October).



Rodimstev -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/12/2015 1:14:46 PM)

Hi all,

i give just my opinion :

i am not a expert in WITE but i have a robust knowlegde about the military operation more specialy about the germano-soviet's war.

as Pelton said :

he has not Hitler but he commands the Wermacht in 1941 with his strongs and weekness and he is not the

we are not Stalin but we command the Red army with his strong and weekness and we are not master of the Weather.

It is for this that playing with fixed table weather is like playing to chess, but no to a wargame.

each combat represents a lot of parameters but you have always a incertitude.

It is not mathematical.

It is really important to have this incertitude and the weather sorry for players that play with fixed table is a parameter like others.

May be that the main issue is to reflect the real consequence to have mud or clear or snow weather about the mouvement/combat/supply.

I think it is the good way to study this but no change the random table weather.

for my part, i would prefer more random in weather. don't forget that we play a week in each turn and if you know the weather in russia in june, july, august or september, you have very often un july for example one or two days raining per week in Ukraine or bielorussia.

Don't hesitate to read the meteorologic archivals russia beetween june and december 1941 :)


Rodimstev



Mehring -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/12/2015 3:30:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rodimstev

Hi all,

i give just my opinion :

i am not a expert in WITE but i have a robust knowlegde about the military operation more specialy about the germano-soviet's war.

as Pelton said :

he has not Hitler but he commands the Wermacht in 1941 with his strongs and weekness and he is not the

we are not Stalin but we command the Red army with his strong and weekness and we are not master of the Weather.

It is for this that playing with fixed table weather is like playing to chess, but no to a wargame.

each combat represents a lot of parameters but you have always a incertitude.

It is not mathematical.

It is really important to have this incertitude and the weather sorry for players that play with fixed table is a parameter like others.

May be that the main issue is to reflect the real consequence to have mud or clear or snow weather about the mouvement/combat/supply.

I think it is the good way to study this but no change the random table weather.

for my part, i would prefer more random in weather. don't forget that we play a week in each turn and if you know the weather in russia in june, july, august or september, you have very often un july for example one or two days raining per week in Ukraine or bielorussia.

Don't hesitate to read the meteorologic archivals russia beetween june and december 1941 :)


Rodimstev


I believe WiTE2 will have granular weather and more types, too- like light/heavy mud so effects will often be more local and nuanced. Nice! I've ever played a game with fixed, absolutely predictable weather and never will, the idea is abhorrent.



morvael -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/12/2015 3:37:02 PM)

With just 4 types of weather and just 4 zones one can't represent bad weather during summer. Mud in this game is a total game changer if it happens during summer 41 so it must be limited. It's only working well for what it was designed - the period of rasputitsa. You have to imagine clear weather being less clear with local rain, storms, light to medium mud. But it can't be THE mud.



loki100 -> RE: Random weather not random??? (11/12/2015 4:34:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

With just 4 types of weather and just 4 zones one can't represent bad weather during summer. Mud in this game is a total game changer if it happens during summer 41 so it must be limited. It's only working well for what it was designed - the period of rasputitsa. You have to imagine clear weather being less clear with local rain, storms, light to medium mud. But it can't be THE mud.


fair point, in WiTW I have come to regard light mud/limited rain as the normal (at least for NW Europe), so clear and no mud becomes a bonus. But a combination of the different game engine and the better road nets means that light mud is not much of a block on movement/combat.



sillyflower -> RE: Random weather not random??? (12/9/2015 3:15:23 PM)

Being a saddo (no Wite turns to do today), I played some test GC41 games to check the weather patterns, doing only the 1st 6 turns each time. I did not move any counters, but just a lot of F12ing.

I did 3 using vanilla GC. Games 1 and 2 were all clear. Game 3 had mud in south on T6. I was starting to wonder if the lack of mud was because the germans had failed to advance.

I then did 3 using GC alt VC260.
game 4 mud in south T3, europe on T5 and centre on T6
game 5 mud south T3 (looking familiar to anyone?) and europe T4
game 6 only mud was T6 but guess where - the south of course.

6 games is a very small sample and I haven't done the maths to see whether the difference between GC and alt VC are significant (not least because I have forgotten how to do the chi squared test [:(]) but the difference between the 2 starting scenarios was stark. Also was the fact that 4/7 instances of mud were in the south and none in the north even after 24 chances of it. Only a 1% chance of any zone having clear every turn as the probability of clear each turn between was only 80% if no previous mud if I have done my maths right.



Manstein63 -> RE: Random weather not random??? (12/9/2015 10:17:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

Being a saddo (no Wite turns to do today)


You have one now, so you can stop being sad[sm=00000436.gif]
Manstein63



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