RE: What if US allowed Japan to take Midway? (Full Version)

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spence -> RE: What if US allowed Japan to take Midway? (12/13/2015 10:01:20 PM)

quote:

Well if there was cloud cover things could have been different. Or if the first dive bomber squadron didn't found the carriers.

The USS Franklin case shows that only one dive bomber - albeit a B7 Grace and 2 250kg bombs - can wreck a day.

I agree that US had the advantage. But i say that a 3-3 could have happened.

Let's suppose that Japanese had sent all airplanes with GP bombs like Yamaguchi wanted, probably the damage would not be so severe.


Perhaps you might clarify. The B5s carried 800 kg bombs against Midway...is that the time you say they should have carried 250kg bombs? Or during a launch against Yorktown?

The 250kg bombs could have mucked up the USN flight decks but the USN planes were already in the air or would be soon when the scout discovered the Yorktown. And it seems the other two USN carriers didn't even get discovered until that afternoon. The B5s would have been level bombing which would place them in the same boat as the USAAF B-17s who took some great pictures but didn't hit a thing. Even with torpedoes the B5s NEVER came close to their lethal reputation in AE...after Pearl Harbor they maybe scored 10 hits total on warships of any sort (2 on Lexington, 2 on Yorktown, 3 on Hornet and a few more on USS Meredith).



quote:

The USS Franklin case shows that only one dive bomber - albeit a B7 Grace and 2 250kg bombs - can wreck a day.
Perhaps we might give some credit to Lt Richard Best in this regard too...sure screwed up Nagumo's day that June of '42



Dili -> RE: What if US allowed Japan to take Midway? (12/14/2015 12:52:19 AM)

No just to point that a carrier is very vulnerable even to just two 250kg bombs if full of aircraft. If USN could not remain to give support to Franklin with cruisers would be sunk by fire.

Do you think B5 only level bomb? don't they make a shallow say 45º dive?

There wasn't any torpedo hit in Indian Ocean?

Oh yes that is certainly a case of a man changing history.



Sardaukar -> RE: What if US allowed Japan to take Midway? (12/14/2015 1:17:32 AM)

Shattered Sword is the book you need to read about Japanese chances to land in Midway. It'd probably been bloodbath similar to what happened to Ichiki's unit at Alligator Creek in Guadalcanal, where defenders were lot less prepared and lot less dug in. Japanese would have had to wade hundreds of meters under machine gun fire, AA weapons fire and whatnot, since reef didn't allow boats through. US plan was "wreck them on reef". Even if by some miracle Japanese got on shore in numbers, they's still face mines, barbed wire and even tanks (yes, defenders had small number of light tanks too).

Nimitz did brilliant job taking calculated risk about carrier battle in Midway. He also knew well, that even losing Midway was not critical. Japanese could not have kept it.

Not all went well for USN either. E.g. Hornet's air group could not score a single hit on enemy.



geofflambert -> RE: What if US allowed Japan to take Midway? (12/14/2015 2:55:16 AM)

I think the lesson to be learned is that 1) The Americans have good carriers (with excellent damage control) 2) The American aircraft are good to quite good. 3) The American aircrews are easily underestimated.

For the Allies: Don't presume you can't win a carrier battle with just 3 carriers. Consider waiting 'til you have four, for safety's sake. If your opponent exposes himself without reconnaissance by all means take advantage of that. If you decide the KB has entered space where he has no reccon but you do, pounce. If you have five carriers, kill.

For the Imperial player: Do not expose your carriers anywhere they are two days from possibly being spotted. Being spotted means a couple of things; they know where you are and know where you are not. Withhold your CVs when you're not sure the KB has entered an area where he has no reccon. If you have three carriers, be careful. If you have four be aggressive when you see you have the least advantage.

The Japanese cannot win unless they sink a bunch of US carriers. Make sure they do or make sure they don't depending on which side you are on.



wdolson -> RE: What if US allowed Japan to take Midway? (12/14/2015 5:47:23 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Dili

No just to point that a carrier is very vulnerable even to just two 250kg bombs if full of aircraft. If USN could not remain to give support to Franklin with cruisers would be sunk by fire.

Do you think B5 only level bomb? don't they make a shallow say 45º dive?

There wasn't any torpedo hit in Indian Ocean?

Oh yes that is certainly a case of a man changing history.


Torpedo bombers made level bombing attacks on land and sometimes against naval targets. On Japanese Torpedo planes and the TBD, the middle seat guy was the bombadier on level bombing missions. The TBF had a bomb sight in the back of the bombbay. I don't know of any case where torpedo bombers were used with shallow dives. To a large degree the wings weren't stressed for pulling out of dives.

If the Japanese had launched a strike on the USN carriers with the Kates carrying bombs would have had to level bomb with no training for it.

Bill



Lecivius -> RE: What if US allowed Japan to take Midway? (12/14/2015 3:38:26 PM)

Something else to ponder on. I don't 'think' Nimitz knew KB would be split up. Going totally from memory (and that is NOT a good thing) Dutch Harbor came as a surprise. Going against a full KB, I don't think the U.S. Navy would have done it. Even with surprise.

But that is another discussion, and a part of the Miracle at Midway.



spence -> RE: What if US allowed Japan to take Midway? (12/14/2015 9:56:00 PM)

Pretty sure the USN was aware that SHOKAKU was not going to be present at Midway...4 x 1000 lber hits at Coral Sea pretty surely made that ship a non-starter. The IJN itself put ZUIKAKU out of action with their administrative decision to make the flyboys part of the ship's company (they would not combine 2 air-groups to make one).

The Dutch Harbor strike was foreseen and the USN pretty much decided that the Aleutians weren't worth all that much at that time (yes we had to take back Attu and Kiska but two barren, frozen pieces of bog didn't figure very highly on the strategic scale in the global WW2).




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