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DrRansom -> RE: Saudi Arabia vs Iran (2016) (1/6/2016 3:39:08 PM)
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The problem with modeling this conflict is that the political and sociological issues, force quality and motivation, dominate any equipment / technological consideration. While reports from Yemen are hugely uncertainly, what videos do exist show Saudi armor forces operating in catastrophically poor fashion, e.g. IFVs with no infantry support, allowing dismounts to close within several dozen yards for RPG attacks.
Furthermore, we may note that fighting is still happening in Yemen, with Yemen engaging Saudi forces with ballistic missiles. From this, we can gather at the minimum:
- Saudi Air force has not suppressed ballistic missiles
- Saudi Ground forces have not engaged far enough into the country to defeat ballistic missile infrastructure
But we don't know if Yemen forces are suffering high losses, we don't know if they are doing anything other than surviving in coastal safe zones. Too much is uncertain to draw a precise picture.
With all this in mind, I don't think a CMANO scenario is worthwhile for Saudi Arabia vs. Iran. CMANO cannot model the population / insurgency / political dynamics which are most decisive in such a conflict.
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