Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (Full Version)

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Triode -> Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/12/2016 3:51:09 PM)

So, inspired by various "OMG,TEH Russian sortie rate soo good" articles and
http://www.warfaresims.com/?page_id=3262#7

So, how good this "good" really is?

from 30.09.15 to 24.12.15 there is 5240 sortie (excluding helicopters)
[image]http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/de_la_mitrio/3989359/27508/27508_original.png[/image]
Light blue - Hmeimim AB ,12 Su-24M/Su-24M2 , 12 Su-25SM ,4 Su-30SM, 4 Su-34 (after 2?.11.15 +4 Su-34)
Red - "Kalibr" missile strikes
Violet - Tu-22M3 sorties
Green - Air launched LACM strikes(Kh-101,Kh-555SM)
Dark blue - Su-34 sorties from Krymsk (with in flight refueling)
Orange line - number of strikes against targets(NOT SORTIES!)
Light orange - Hunt for oil tankers strikes


25.12.15-27.12.15
from Hmeimim AB 164 sorties , strike 556 targets

28.12.15-29.12.15
from Hmeimim AB 121 sorties , strike 424 targets

1.01.16-10.01.16
from Hmeimim AB 311 sorties , strike 1097 targets



for Hmeimim in 30.09.15-31.12.15 it is:
average sustained rate 1,8 sorties per aircraft per day (2,02 if we exclude first month,"adaptation" and bringin munitions via "Syrian Express", all this things eat time)

max "surge" rate 3,2 sorties per aircraft per day

average attacks in one sortie - 3,4

all data from official RuMoD page for operation in Syria:
http://eng.syria.mil.ru/en/index/syria.htm?objInBlock=25&blk=12059408

It seems Russian ROE give Russian pilots "target rich environment"



DESRON420 -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/12/2016 6:59:46 PM)

This is very good analysis, thank you.



AdmiralSteve -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/17/2016 2:11:47 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Triode




It seems Russian ROE give Russian pilots "target rich environment"


In 10 days they engaged 1097 targets. 10 Days of bombing in Iraq in '91 maybe saw half of that if you included every single SAM, AAA and Army ground unit position.

Russian ROE must be "if it moves or shoots, bomb it."



AdmiralSteve -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/17/2016 2:22:22 AM)

Just found this too, regarding Desert Storm and comparing to Russians bombing Syria;

U.S. Bombing: The Myth of Surgical Bombing in the Gulf War

"Of the actual bombing missions, about 20,000 sorties were flown against a select list of 300 strategic targets in Iraq and Kuwait; about 5,000 were flown against SCUD missile launchers, and some 30,000 to 50,000 against Iraqi forces in southern Iraq and Kuwait."

Yeah, Russians are hitting everything and anything. I wonder what's left?



Skjold -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/17/2016 3:56:51 AM)

Well if you look at what the vast majority of the aircraft are carrying, it is almost exclusivly unguided bombs of some sort. High explosive, fragmentation, cluster or thermobaric. Also, American ROE even during Desert Storm was suprisingly strict while Russian ROE is well... not.



Rebel Yell -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/17/2016 5:12:26 AM)


quote:


Yeah, Russians are hitting everything and anything. I wonder what's left?


Makes me wonder if the Russians are actually "hitting" much of anything.



DESRON420 -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/17/2016 6:21:14 AM)

At 3.4 attacks / sortie, I suspect almost every bomb dropped is being counted as a strike. This would square with the 2-4 unguided bomb loadouts seen in photography of Hmeimim, plus some upwards skew from Tu-22M3 sorties.



Triode -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/17/2016 9:05:07 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DESRON420

At 3.4 attacks / sortie, I suspect almost every bomb dropped is being counted as a strike. This would square with the 2-4 unguided bomb loadouts seen in photography of Hmeimim, plus some upwards skew from Tu-22M3 sorties.


Ha, you know it [:D]

October, early November RuAF strike looks like :
drop two bomb on target -> one strike

now it looks like

drop one bomb -> wait for result (info from UAV or land forces)-> if needed drop another one bomb (execute "additional strike against already attacked by previous strike target" in MoD terminology [:)]) -> two strike

also if needed RuAF still use two bomb strike (HVT, big targets etc)

and PGM (Kh-25,Kh-29, KAB-500, KAB-1500) is always one strike

this change is because of SVP-24
there is many legends about this system varies from "OMG, JDAM is useless, SVP-24 give unguided bomb precision of PGM , and this is soo cheap ,oh soo cheap" to "Useless Russian piece of junk"

what you need to know about SVP-24 is:
this is GLONASS based targeting system with ability to use info about local weather conditions in calculations
on trials of SVP-24 (Su-24M variant of modernisation "Gefest") for OFAB-250-270 bomb it is :
- 3000-5000m height with GLONASS only ,21m CEP
- 3000-5000m height with GLONASS and local weather conditions ,12m CEP

So , "one bomb strike" with SVP-24 not so bad idea as it sounds



Skjold -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/17/2016 2:41:37 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rebel Yell


quote:


Yeah, Russians are hitting everything and anything. I wonder what's left?


Makes me wonder if the Russians are actually "hitting" much of anything.


Unguided bombing isn't neccesarily ineffective especially against an enemy that has no credible anti-air threat. Sure you need several more bombs on average to hit something, but unguided bombs is also dirt cheap and require no fancy stuff to make. I think the wests obsession with PGM's is mostly to keep collateral damage down, many of the strikes could easily have been done with unguided munitions especially on stationary big targets such as buildings or large fighting positions. Large part of the point of PGM's is the ability to be accurate from high altitude which doesn't matter much against rebels/IS.



jimcarravall -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/18/2016 12:21:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Skjold


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rebel Yell


quote:


Yeah, Russians are hitting everything and anything. I wonder what's left?


Makes me wonder if the Russians are actually "hitting" much of anything.


Unguided bombing isn't neccesarily ineffective especially against an enemy that has no credible anti-air threat. Sure you need several more bombs on average to hit something, but unguided bombs is also dirt cheap and require no fancy stuff to make. I think the wests obsession with PGM's is mostly to keep collateral damage down, many of the strikes could easily have been done with unguided munitions especially on stationary big targets such as buildings or large fighting positions. Large part of the point of PGM's is the ability to be accurate from high altitude which doesn't matter much against rebels/IS.


Having worked with PGM for the Army, the focus is on "one shot one kill" with control of collateral damage a bonus.

Factors used to determine the viability of any ammunition include probability of kill, crew burden, system sustainment burdens, unit cost for production, weight, and ability to sustain operations during a defined combat pulse before requiring replenishment. These considerations for use arrive after costs to identify warfighter goals, design to those goals, test ability to address those goals, and initiate production have been justified during periodic pre-production development reviews.



Skjold -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/18/2016 10:07:13 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jimcarravallah

Having worked with PGM for the Army, the focus is on "one shot one kill" with control of collateral damage a bonus.

Factors used to determine the viability of any ammunition include probability of kill, crew burden, system sustainment burdens, unit cost for production, weight, and ability to sustain operations during a defined combat pulse before requiring replenishment. These considerations for use arrive after costs to identify warfighter goals, design to those goals, test ability to address those goals, and initiate production have been justified during periodic pre-production development reviews.



Thanks for the insight.



Dysta -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/18/2016 11:50:08 PM)

I have difficulty to comprehend how Soviet relics can use PGMs. The avionics is also in play during the bomb run, and Russia doesn't have much of advanced weapon platforms to mount better bombs.



Skjold -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/18/2016 11:56:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Dysta

I have difficulty to comprehend how Soviet relics can use PGMs. The avionics is also in play during the bomb run, and Russia doesn't have much of advanced weapon platforms to mount better bombs.


Lets see, their fleet in Syria consists of:


  • Su-25SM - Laser guided missiles and bombs.
  • Su-24 - Laser & TV guided missiles and bombs.
  • Su-34 - Laser, GLONASS & TV guided missiles and bombs.

    I think you might underestimate "Soviet relics"?



    • Dysta -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/18/2016 11:58:36 PM)


    quote:

    ORIGINAL: Skjold

    quote:

    ORIGINAL: Dysta

    I have difficulty to comprehend how Soviet relics can use PGMs. The avionics is also in play during the bomb run, and Russia doesn't have much of advanced weapon platforms to mount better bombs.


    Lets see, their fleet in Syria consists of:


  • Su-25SM - Laser guided missiles and bombs.
  • Su-34 - Laser & TV guided missiles and bombs.
  • Su-24 - Laser & TV guided missiles and bombs.

    I think you might underestimate "Soviet relics"?



    • Could be, I may expect SAT guidance like JDAM, and IR guidance like JSOC-C. Something much smarter than manual guidances.



    ExNusquam -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/19/2016 12:04:31 AM)

    It's just an addon avionics box- almost all aircraft are built with some modularity. The US has been dropping JDAMs from B-52's for 2 decades, and they had their first flight in 1952. The US has been using TV and Laser-Guided bombs since Vietnam. The technology is not new nor is the ability to integrated it on older airframes.



    Skjold -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/19/2016 12:07:26 AM)

    quote:

    ORIGINAL: Dysta

    Could be, I may expect SAT guidance like JDAM, and IR guidance like JSOC-C. Something much smarter than manual guidances.



    They do have SAT guidance i just forgot to mention it. The Su-34 is capable of dropping GLONASS guided bombs. Besides that is beyond the point TV, Laser & GLONASS are all PGM's. Regarding JSOC-C i don't even know what that is so no clue on that note, that might be some capability the russians do not have.

    Not to mention that they used their strategic bomber fleet to launch air launched cruise missiles which also are PGM's.



    Dysta -> RE: Syria. Hmeimim AB RuAF sortie rates (1/19/2016 9:22:28 AM)

    My mistake, I mean JSOW-C1. An IR self-guided version of AGM-154. It is a glide bomb, but pack much bigger punch than hellfire.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zLFAJuGa93U



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