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rkr1958 -> RE: Global War AAR in Pictures (2/20/2016 11:27:38 PM)
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Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Japan. Land Combat. Hengyang, China.
I thought long and hard and worked the odds before I committed to this land combat as the Japanese. Here are my calculations and thoughts based on a +8A attack. I knew if I carried it out that Umezu would provide HQ support and the attack would be at +8.5A. My calculations at +8A were conservative in that they assumed the Japanese wouldn't get the factional, which in fact they didn't. Anyway, here are the details on my decision to make this attack.
A Japanese total victory against the stack of there Chinese units (i.e., 1S or 2S result) requires a modified roll of 20 or higher. At +8, this means an unmodified roll of >= 12. The odds for that is 45%.
The Japanese lose three units on a modified roll of 14, or a unmodified roll of 6. There's a 5% chance of that, which would be a very bad result for the Japanese in China. While very bad this result is short of a total disaster.
The Japanese lose two units on modified rolls of 15, 16 or 19 (or unmodified rolls of 7, 8 or 11). There's a 23% chance of that. This would be bad.
So my through process was, 45% chance of total success versus a 5% chance of a very bad result. That's a 9 to 1 ratio in Japan's favor.
45% (same) chance of total success versus a 23% chance of a bad result. That's nearly a 2 to 1 ratio in Japan's favor.
There's no chance of a disaster. So I decided to go for it. The Japanese don't get the fractional odds but are rewarded with a roll of 15, which produces a modified roll of 23. This results in the destruction of two Chinese ground units, shattering of the remaining one and no losses or disorganization of any of the Japanese attackers except for Umezu who provided HQ support to the attack.
The USA does react to the Chinese losing Hengyang by adding a chit to the Japanese entry pool.
[image]local://upfiles/31901/4BAF10508D704208914D6FA2362B053F.jpg[/image]
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