RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (Full Version)

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Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/2/2016 4:22:33 PM)

Do we feel lucky?

[image]local://upfiles/29130/CA69C74BB1A248358190E63C7693422F.jpg[/image]
Picture from May/Jun '41 Impulse #3



warspite1 -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/2/2016 4:45:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Do we feel lucky?

[image]local://upfiles/29130/CA69C74BB1A248358190E63C7693422F.jpg[/image]
Picture from May/Jun '41 Impulse #3
warspite1

What do we need - low or a high number?



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/2/2016 5:50:17 PM)

We need to roll low. A one, or a two, does the trick if we try and DOW Germany.



warspite1 -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/2/2016 7:12:31 PM)

In which case we go for it. We will roll a 1.



brian brian -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/2/2016 10:35:48 PM)

I wouldn't at 20%. The Allied situation is not desperate by any means. If it fails, you might not get another chance till Sep/Oct.

I think the Italians are temporarily low on lift? The Axis has a long way to go in North Africa. The forces left in Morocco should be able to hold on OK for a turn - I think the Panzers have all gone east already?

Also, there is this - the Italians will soon be raiding the Atlantic, perhaps in force. The best way to put a stop to that is a nice Surprise Impulse smack-down by the USN Atlantic Fleet. Perhaps the balance of this turn could be used to subtly reinforce the Atlantic Fleet during the Return to Base phase from some innocuous Eastern Pacific sea zone, though you will want the Regia Marina at sea on DOW, so I wouldn't get overly dramatic on that or they will get spooked. Maybe just insure Ranger and Wasp have the best available CV planes, maybe via at-sea trades with Pacific Fleet. If the Italians raid to the south, maybe block their return to Gibraltar.



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 6:59:47 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

In which case we go for it. We will roll a 1.

Captain Edward A. Murphy Jr. just raised a interesting point. Maybe the 1 isn't as sure as we think. [:D]



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 7:04:11 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I wouldn't at 20%. The Allied situation is not desperate by any means. If it fails, you might not get another chance till Sep/Oct.

I think the Italians are temporarily low on lift? The Axis has a long way to go in North Africa. The forces left in Morocco should be able to hold on OK for a turn - I think the Panzers have all gone east already?

Also, there is this - the Italians will soon be raiding the Atlantic, perhaps in force. The best way to put a stop to that is a nice Surprise Impulse smack-down by the USN Atlantic Fleet. Perhaps the balance of this turn could be used to subtly reinforce the Atlantic Fleet during the Return to Base phase from some innocuous Eastern Pacific sea zone, though you will want the Regia Marina at sea on DOW, so I wouldn't get overly dramatic on that or they will get spooked. Maybe just insure Ranger and Wasp have the best available CV planes, maybe via at-sea trades with Pacific Fleet. If the Italians raid to the south, maybe block their return to Gibraltar.

Thank you for your suggestion.

The US are not prepared for a war. Almost their entire air force is reserve. And this includes the naval air. Orders are being made to recall essential personal and the ships prepared for war postings.



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 8:03:48 AM)

quote:

I think the Italians are temporarily low on lift?

Yes. But they get one transport next turn. The German sea lift is intact and it can now assist the Italians if they are transferred. A German marine arrives next turn as well, and a German paratrooper is also produced.



warspite1 -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 9:06:01 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm


quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I wouldn't at 20%. The Allied situation is not desperate by any means. If it fails, you might not get another chance till Sep/Oct.

I think the Italians are temporarily low on lift? The Axis has a long way to go in North Africa. The forces left in Morocco should be able to hold on OK for a turn - I think the Panzers have all gone east already?

Also, there is this - the Italians will soon be raiding the Atlantic, perhaps in force. The best way to put a stop to that is a nice Surprise Impulse smack-down by the USN Atlantic Fleet. Perhaps the balance of this turn could be used to subtly reinforce the Atlantic Fleet during the Return to Base phase from some innocuous Eastern Pacific sea zone, though you will want the Regia Marina at sea on DOW, so I wouldn't get overly dramatic on that or they will get spooked. Maybe just insure Ranger and Wasp have the best available CV planes, maybe via at-sea trades with Pacific Fleet. If the Italians raid to the south, maybe block their return to Gibraltar.

Thank you for your suggestion.

The US are not prepared for a war. Almost their entire air force is reserve. And this includes the naval air. Orders are being made to recall essential personal and the ships prepared for war postings.
warspite1

So it was a rhetorical question? [:(]



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 9:59:54 AM)

No, it wasn't a rhetorical question.

I am usually unlucky when it comes to wargames. And I haven't felt particularly lucky in this game so far. So I thought maybe we would be lucky here. Luck favours the bold and all that.

Then I slept on it and I didn't feel confident about it. The answers I got made me feel even less confident. And it got me thinking about Murphy and how you should be prepared, and I thought that US is not really prepared to take advantage of any surprise. So it might be better to have the option to DOW next turn instead (after the carrier planes have been placed). Or maybe next impulse, especially if there are possible targets in the Atlantic? If we miss a DOW it is likely that it will take two turns before we can try again.

If you feel strongly about it, for next impulse, then we can surely make the attempt.



warspite1 -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 10:48:46 AM)

No, you are the US so final decision is yours.



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 10:52:45 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

No, you are the US so final decision is yours.

Thank you. Although I like to think of this as a team effort. [:)]



brian brian -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 12:49:22 PM)

The vast bulk of the Italian fleet is only range 2. They could use them in Cape St. Vincent right now, but I would think they would rely on air there once again. I would however expect to see Axis ships base in Gibraltar at the end of this turn.

Fascinating game situation you have going.



brian brian -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 1:06:26 PM)

Also very curious why you declined to sink the Italian CP when you could? After lift, their CP's are their next most vulnerable point for campaigning in Africa. They have a four turn lead time to replace and I think you have already whittled away at least one or two. But their CA force is large. They have been repairing it, a bit of inefficiency in my opinion, so I can see reasons to poke the Italians in that idea as well, because ...

Overall the Italians are playing far, far too conservatively - using the German largesse to fortify Italy while Gibraltar is under assault, for example. I would still consider a raid on Sardinia if you can get a division in to Malta or Tangiers as they will get sloppy with supply in the Western Med now with Gibraltar in hand. It might cost the CW a valuable division and/or a Cruiser but if successful something like that usually makes a conservative player over-react and further dull their offensive plans. Keep a full-court press on them for as long as you hold access to the Suez Canal and it will pay dividends.



brian brian -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 1:37:50 PM)

Whoa, I forgot how good the position around Bilbao was. The Allied situation is very good right now.



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 1:38:41 PM)

Do you have any Soviet rail moves I can do for you?

If so, I can continue to the land movement step and then mail the save after the CW, and Nationalist, land moves?



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 1:44:33 PM)

quote:

I would still consider a raid on Sardinia if you can get a division in to Malta or Tangiers as they will get sloppy with supply in the Western Med now with Gibraltar in hand.

A invasion of Sardinia is high on my priorities list although I suspect it will be a long time before it is actually attempted. [:(]



warspite1 -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 1:46:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Do you have any Soviet rail moves I can do for you?

If so, I can continue to the land movement step and then mail the save after the CW, and Nationalist, land moves?
warspite1

No rail movement thank-you



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 1:57:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Also very curious why you declined to sink the Italian CP when you could? After lift, their CP's are their next most vulnerable point for campaigning in Africa. They have a four turn lead time to replace and I think you have already whittled away at least one or two. But their CA force is large. They have been repairing it, a bit of inefficiency in my opinion, so I can see reasons to poke the Italians in that idea as well, because ...


The Italian cruiser force was large. Now most of the cruiser are in need of repair. Only three Italian cruisers currently on the map. I would prefer to keep the number of Italian cruisers low so that Italy do not have enough to protect sea lift, convoys, and raid at the same time.

Italy has so far had some production of convoy points so I didn't really see a loss of one more becoming a immediate threat for Italian sea supply. I also thought that Italy had another convoy point in production but I now see that Italy does not.

I also thought that it was possible that the Italian convoy would stay at sea letting me have another go at it without any risk for the submarines. Turns out I was wrong about that one.



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 2:00:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Do you have any Soviet rail moves I can do for you?

If so, I can continue to the land movement step and then mail the save after the CW, and Nationalist, land moves?
warspite1

No rail movement thank-you


May I suggest that you rail one garrison to Brest-Litovsk now that you have a rail move left?



brian brian -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 2:06:42 PM)

I don't think the American units will cooperate with the Spanish units?

There should be a lot of interesting opportunities for the Allies in the second half of 1941. I'm not sure the Axis will be able to completely close the Med before US REServes start arriving on front lines.

Normally I would have all available (in normal counter mix) US divisions on Midway and Wake right now but I would be tempted to pull one back to Europe. Hard to tell if the Japanese have deployed much for any strategic options beyond taking the South China Sea ports and setting up the historical perimeter. A USN SUB or two in the Med will also help keep pressure on the interior Axis position there as they aren't as useful while the IJN is busy with landings in the South China Sea and sailing in force in that zone.



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 2:10:02 PM)

quote:

I don't think the American units will cooperate with the Spanish units?

Indeed. No cooperation between Spain and US.



warspite1 -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 2:10:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Do you have any Soviet rail moves I can do for you?

If so, I can continue to the land movement step and then mail the save after the CW, and Nationalist, land moves?
warspite1

No rail movement thank-you


May I suggest that you rail one garrison to Brest-Litovsk now that you have a rail move left?
warspite1

To paraphrase the Duke of Wellington:

General Orm I do not intend to run around like a wet hen. There will be plenty of time sir, plenty of time.

aka No [:D]



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 2:11:52 PM)

quote:

There should be a lot of interesting opportunities for the Allies in the second half of 1941. I'm not sure the Axis will be able to completely close the Med before US REServes start arriving on front lines.

I think depends a lot on whether US or USSR become active. As long as CW is without any assistance there will not be much that can be done regardless on how interesting opportunities there are. [:)]



Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 2:14:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Do you have any Soviet rail moves I can do for you?

If so, I can continue to the land movement step and then mail the save after the CW, and Nationalist, land moves?
warspite1

No rail movement thank-you


May I suggest that you rail one garrison to Brest-Litovsk now that you have a rail move left?
warspite1

To paraphrase the Duke of Wellington:

General Orm I do not intend to run around like a wet hen. There will be plenty of time sir, plenty of time.

aka No [:D]


[:D]

Ok. [:)]

Although I want to say that what time you have before Germany attacks is uncertain. [:D]



brian brian -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 2:23:42 PM)

I think the USA DOW chance in Jul/Aug will be quite good, and I would pull the trigger on an attempt then even if at only 40%. Just rolling for it will push the "Turtle Mode" button somewhat for the Japanese and Italians. Investing in Fortress Italy (SYNTH, GARR) early instead of expanding the Axis perimeter as much as possible will come back to haunt the Axis within a year from now.

I wouldn't expect to see the USSR activated this year while Bilbao remains a thorn.

With a bit of minor luck, maybe Spanish &/or French PARTisans can appear and start further messing with the Euro-Axis position (logistics connections) while they set their sights farther afield. I'm not sure they will be able to take Tangier = Rock #2.



brian brian -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 2:43:40 PM)

One of the opportunities I had in mind would be pulling the Allied tank assets from northern Spain and replacing them with American/CW infantry once the American lift is available in Europe. I would then send those to North Africa as with Tangiers and Casablanca in Allied hands, the position is strong there. Managing where the Spanish, British, and Americans fight will be tricky however. The Axis might not make it out of the Atlas mountains at all and then the deserts await, for the Allies. So many Axis players think there is no down-side to a 1939 attack in the West.

Anyhow, thanks for the vicarious gaming. I'm off to see the Wizard once again, carry on.



Admiral Delabroglio -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/3/2016 7:21:42 PM)

Good evening

Last time I played with the boardgame (Axis Tide scenario), I played with the USA.
I started with a great chit draw, plus a lot of luck with the USA entry rolls
Early Gear Up, early War appropriations.
And 4 or 5 failed war declarations that drained all the tension. A low% chance if a risky gamble. My first attempt was with a 70% chance, the second one 70% or 60%.
Even the third attempt was with a decent probability.
I just had to make the last attempt, with a 20% chance : it was the winter of 1941/1942 and the USSR was loosing and would be gone within one year if Uncle Sam could not provide a distraction.
What really annoyed me is that I nearly took the risky gamble and tried to enter the war with a 20% chance, in June 1941. I told the other players that I did not make a war declaration attempt, and rolled the dice to see what would have happened.
I rolled a 1. THe USA would have entered the war the very impulse after Germany starded operation Barbarossa.

Well, back to the point : failed attempts cost a lot in terms of tension. The allies do not seem in a bad enough situation to justify a 20% chance roll, in my opinion.
Also, if you reclare war (or try) too soon, you may warn the Axis, and they might stuff the border with the USSR with low quality units and keep the elite in the West.

Whatever decision you take, good luck and thanks for the AAR.
Best regards



warspite1 -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/10/2016 3:19:25 PM)

Well unless the luck starts changing soon at sea we appear to be screwed [&:]

Fact is we have just one unused task force - and there is still an unused Italian Fleet at large. I think the threat this turn is Portugal (which we can't do anything about) and so we don't need to worry about Malta and North Africa and so should be reactive. Not ideal but then in this position what is?




Orm -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (12/10/2016 4:12:59 PM)

I worry about both Malta and North Africa since we have supply trouble and lack sea lift. Although I do not think Malta will be attack until next turn due to lack of Italian sea lift and special units. But Axis have plenty of bad stuff in production.



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